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It seems to me that the Tories will have effectively unified the center-right to far-right spectrum in their camp, while the center-left to far-left is splintered into many small parties, and therefore the UK (or England at some point?) will be governed by them until either the Left unifies or the right splinters again.
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May 5, 2017 11:57
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May 5, 2017 11:57
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drat, some of the local results in Scotland don't look good. I was hoping that the SNP would wipe out the Conservatives (and Labour, for good or ill) in both the local and national elections- perhaps the Conservative predictions of gaining 10 seats from the SNP in the general election contain a grain of truth? If that is the case, then my current personal anti-Brexit and anti-Tory strategy of seeking a job and accommodation in Scotland, in the hope of independence in the next two years, claiming citizenship and eventually regaining my EU citizenship after Scotland joins the EU, could be in jeopardy.
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May 5, 2017 11:58
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Lord_Adonis posted:drat, some of the local results in Scotland don't look good. I was hoping that the SNP would wipe out the Conservatives (and Labour, for good or ill) in both the local and national elections- perhaps the Conservative predictions of gaining 10 seats from the SNP in the general election contain a grain of truth? If that is the case, then my current personal anti-Brexit and anti-Tory strategy of seeking a job and accommodation in Scotland, in the hope of independence in the next two years, claiming citizenship and eventually regaining my EU citizenship after Scotland joins the EU, could be in jeopardy. It was a fairly loving long shot tbf.
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May 5, 2017 11:58
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The finger on the monkey's paw curls inwards...
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May 5, 2017 12:01
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Pissflaps posted:It's a fact. Out of interest who of the left-wing candidates would you prefer to replace Corbyn? And I mean actually considered on the left of the party, not Blair or Blair Mk. 2.
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May 5, 2017 12:01
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Lord_Adonis posted:drat, some of the local results in Scotland don't look good. I was hoping that the SNP would wipe out the Conservatives (and Labour, for good or ill) in both the local and national elections- perhaps the Conservative predictions of gaining 10 seats from the SNP in the general election contain a grain of truth? If that is the case, then my current personal anti-Brexit and anti-Tory strategy of seeking a job and accommodation in Scotland, in the hope of independence in the next two years, claiming citizenship and eventually regaining my EU citizenship after Scotland joins the EU, could be in jeopardy. Abandon hope all ye who enter Britain.
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May 5, 2017 12:00
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Darth Walrus posted:The other three candidates in the leadership contest supported austerity policies and welfare cuts that almost drove my brother to suicide. This isn't about ideological purity, this is about basic survival. That's really awful and I hope your brother is better. Notably though, being anti-austerity isn't an exclusively hard left policy. The Brown government was notably against austerity measures as was the Obama government in the U.S. I feel that conflating centrism with support for austerity is incorrect. Like honestly, austerity is just an absolutely insane policy that was debunked by the IMF a year ago and was obviously stupid from an economic standpoint for anyone who'd studied economics at degree level and didn't have an agenda to push.
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May 5, 2017 12:00
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amazing achievement as Britian defeats fascism forever.
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May 5, 2017 12:00
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GaussianCopula posted:It seems to me that the Tories will have effectively unified the center-right to far-right spectrum in their camp, while the center-left to far-left is splintered into many small parties, and therefore the UK (or England at some point?) will be governed by them until either the Left unifies or the right splinters again. gently caress off, nazi oval office
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May 5, 2017 12:01
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GaussianCopula posted:It seems to me that the Tories will have effectively unified the center-right to far-right spectrum in their camp, while the center-left to far-left is splintered into many small parties, and therefore the UK (or England at some point?) will be governed by them until either the Left unifies or the right splinters again.
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May 5, 2017 12:02
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jabby posted:What are you doing to help make an extra-parliamentary route to socialism happen any time soon? If it seemed like a realistic prospect I'd love to get involved. I don't think me shitposting on a dead comedy forum will make much difference to anything. Also, lol at not thinking a general strike is a realistic prospect but thinking a Corbyn lead Labour is. Yeah mate, alright. I want to live in your Britain. GaussianCopula posted:It seems to me that the Tories will have effectively unified the center-right to far-right spectrum in their camp, while the center-left to far-left is splintered into many small parties, and therefore the UK (or England at some point?) will be governed by them until either the Left unifies or the right splinters again. gently caress off Nazi Lord_Adonis posted:drat, some of the local results in Scotland don't look good. I was hoping that the SNP would wipe out the Conservatives (and Labour, for good or ill) in both the local and national elections- perhaps the Conservative predictions of gaining 10 seats from the SNP in the general election contain a grain of truth? If that is the case, then my current personal anti-Brexit and anti-Tory strategy of seeking a job and accommodation in Scotland, in the hope of independence in the next two years, claiming citizenship and eventually regaining my EU citizenship after Scotland joins the EU, could be in jeopardy. Worth remembering that Scottish council elections are done by single transferable vote rather than first past the post. So them winning councillors in the Feegie or Shettleston isn't going to convert into MPs next month. But yeah, they'll pick up seats, of course they will. Labour & Lib Dems are still in the shitter, SNP support was always going to drop off from 2015, the Tories are right there to capitalise. I'd not worry about it too much yet. Not saying there won't be anything to worry about at the end of the day, when all votes are in.
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May 5, 2017 12:03
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GaussianCopula posted:It seems to me that the Tories will have effectively unified the center-right to far-right spectrum in their camp, while the center-left to far-left is splintered into many small parties, and therefore the UK (or England at some point?) will be governed by them until either the Left unifies or the right splinters again. Nah that's, uhh, not the UK at all. It's just Labour and Tories mostly, with some Lib Dem thrown in (except for Scotland and NI).
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May 5, 2017 12:07
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forkboy84 posted:I don't think me shitposting on a dead comedy forum will make much difference to anything. A Corbyn led labour is a path to a left-wing Labour led by someone who can be more successful. Obviously I want him to do as well as possible, but an outright Corbyn GE victory was always extremely long odds. Kinnock never won an election but he changed the Labour party.
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May 5, 2017 12:08
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For gently caress's sakes don't take Kinnock as your inspiration for anything other than miraculously keeping a job you do badly
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May 5, 2017 12:08
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Personally, I don't think that centre right, far right, centre left or far left politics, or political ideology of any kind have much of a party-political future in England (after the departure of Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and possibly Cornwall) after Brexit. The economic consequences of Brexit mean that the only operating principle of government will be crisis management. It doesn't require ideology to implement, just auditors, bailiffs and civil servants backed by guns and police batons (if you can afford to pay for the guns and batons of course, be it in foreign hard currency or tins of baked beans)- irrespective of whether a Conservative, Labour or Lib Dem majority exists in the House of Commons- their response to a hyper-stagflated, bankrupt, mass unemployment, chronic brain drain and starvation scenario will be the same- just refer to Argentina in 1997, Somalia in the late 1980s or Russia in the early-mid 1990s for examples of this. For a fictionalised example, please refer to late 70s Thames Television series called Noah's Castle. The most important legislation of the next decade or so will be the Civil Contingencies Act of 2004- the dissolution of parliament, suspension of parliament and Habeas Corpus to be replaced by regional authorities ruling by the diktats of Senior Civil Servants and local representatives of the Police and Armed Forces.
Lord_Adonis fucked around with this message at 12:16 on May 5, 2017 |
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May 5, 2017 12:09
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Darth Walrus posted:The other three candidates in the leadership contest supported austerity policies and welfare cuts that almost drove my brother to suicide. This isn't about ideological purity, this is about basic survival. This. No one offered anything that would help not only me, but also my familty and friends and basically forced a good few people I know onto both the street or abroad, myself included. You wonder why I give no fucks about the death of New Labour and that I support Corbyns's policies? It's because New Labour's policies have all lead to the current political environments as they stand today, and they still offered "Well we're not quite as bad" as their only solution. Like the current Democratic party in the US, I and alot of other people dance on their grave.
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May 5, 2017 12:10
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Lord_Adonis posted:Personally, I don't think that centre right, far right, centre left or far left politics, or political ideology of any kind have much of a party-political future in England (after the departure of Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and possibly Cornwall) after Brexit. The economic consequences of Brexit mean that the only operating principle of government will be crisis management. It doesn't require ideology to implement, just auditors, bailiffs and civil servants backed by guns and police batons (if you can afford to pay for the guns and batons of course, be it in foreign hard currency or tins of baked beans)- irrespective of whether a Conservative, Labour or Lib Dem majority exists in the House of Commons- their response to a hyper-stagflated, bankrupt, mass unemployment, chronic brain drain and starvation scenario will be the same- just refer to Argentina in 1997, Somalia in the late 1980s or Russia in the early-mid 1990s for examples of this.
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May 5, 2017 12:13
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jabby posted:A Corbyn led labour is a path to a left-wing Labour led by someone who can be more successful. Obviously I want him to do as well as possible, but an outright Corbyn GE victory was always extremely long odds. Kinnock never won an election but he changed the Labour party. My gut feeling for the GE is Labour has around the same vote share as 2015 but loses 20+ seats due to UKIP votes transferring to Tory. Not a whole lot you can do i the face of 50% of voters declaring their preference for nationalism, whether they admit it or not. Changing the political landscape for voters is going to take a lot more work and effort than can be done in 4 weeks, no matter how many popular policies Labour puts out.
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May 5, 2017 12:14
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MikeCrotch posted:My gut feeling for the GE is Labour has around the same vote share as 2015 but loses 20+ seats due to UKIP votes transferring to Tory. Not a whole lot you can do i the face of 50% of voters declaring their preference for nationalism, whether they admit it or not. Changing the political landscape for voters is going to take a lot more work and effort than can be done in 4 weeks, no matter how many popular policies Labour puts out. seems easier to have Owen Smith head up National Labour, the new new labour
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May 5, 2017 12:16
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Looks like the rumours about the Tories taking control of Nottinghamshire county council were correct, not looking good at all round here.
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May 5, 2017 12:26
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who will be sherrif
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May 5, 2017 12:26
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jBrereton posted:For gently caress's sakes don't take Kinnock as your inspiration for anything other than miraculously keeping a job you do badly
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May 5, 2017 12:26
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Pissflaps posted:People who support Corbyn are causing people to die because they're taking away the centre left alternative to the Tory party. Yeah these attempts to deflect blame and pass the buck are ugly. You can't out of one side of your mouth blame the voters, while out of the other side of your mouth insist again and again that the voters don't matter, that the Party Members do and that the Party Members picked Corbyn so he must be legitimate. Hardly anyone is a Party Member, a political party can't just serve its members. It's the voters that count. It's the voters who have been failed and let down. The wise and brilliant Nick Cohen, who warned everyone about this and wasn't listened to, put it nicely on twitter. https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/860376035157737472
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May 5, 2017 12:26
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To be fair it's getting increasingly more difficult to argue for Labour in local government given that having a Labour council means you will be targeted for harsher budget cuts.
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May 5, 2017 12:26
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https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/860448177081786368
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May 5, 2017 12:28
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Kokoro Wish posted:This. No one offered anything that would help not only me, but also my familty and friends and basically forced a good few people I know onto both the street or abroad, myself included. You wonder why I give no fucks about the death of New Labour and that I support Corbyns's policies? It's because New Labour's policies have all lead to the current political environments as they stand today, and they still offered "Well we're not quite as bad" as their only solution. The people you care about are being made much worse off by corbynista petulance and the great boon of help it gives to the tories.
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May 5, 2017 12:29
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jabby posted:To be fair it's getting increasingly more difficult to argue for Labour in local government given that having a Labour council means you will be targeted for harsher budget cuts. The average voter doesn't know thats the case but they do know their council is completely poo poo and failing to do basic stuff. I still haven't received my bins from the council
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May 5, 2017 12:30
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MikeCrotch posted:Not a whole lot you can do i the face of 50% of voters declaring their preference for nationalism, whether they admit it or not. Changing the political landscape for voters is going to take a lot more work and effort than can be done in 4 weeks You could go for a 'socialism in one country' type deal where you big up nationalization of water and power and rail and talk about the failures of market liberalism, but that kind of thinking is more often tied up with Le Pen style authoritarianism than social progressivism. The 25% of 'common sense' voters like straightforward solutions like that, but they're also the target market for bad policies like the "why don't they just ban all drugs?" of the PSA or the "who even needs encryption anyway? stop the terrorists using it" of the IPA and this new one. It's not because they're stupid, it's because who has the time to consider second order effects unless they actually impact you. Then again they're the first group to complain when it's incandescent lightbulbs or 3000W brush motors being taken away, so maybe it's a matter of phrasing how it will impact their life directly. Or maybe it's just because it's Those Bastards that banned them rather than Our Bastards.
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May 5, 2017 12:32
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jabby posted:To be fair it's getting increasingly more difficult to argue for Labour in local government given that having a Labour council means you will be targeted for harsher budget cuts. Amazing. At least with Great Helmsman Corbyn you won't need to worry about Labour in government.
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May 5, 2017 12:31
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https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/860442571335749632 Obviously this is mainly casting around for someone, anyone else to blame, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was true. By all anecdotal accounts the new Labour members don't seem too interested in getting out there and having conversations with actual voters, and the pre-2015 'red tory' membership has by this point been successfully cast out of active membership.
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May 5, 2017 12:33
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The Dear Leader cannot fail, he can only be failed.
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May 5, 2017 12:35
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LemonDrizzle posted:Kinnock inherited a badly beaten party that had just taken a massive defeat and raised it from 209 seats to 271, gaining seats in both elections he contested as leader. He didn't win, but he did a lot to rebuild the party and regain the electorate's confidence after the disaster of Foot's leadership and the longest suicide note in history. Corbyn inherited a party with 232 seats and looks set to leave it in the worst electoral position it's been in since the '30s. This is the problem, who ever comes after Corbyn will not win a GE. The state the party will be left in when Corbyn finally goes will mean they have to have a 15%+ swing to have any chance of forming government, which just doesn't happen even with the disaster that the next 5 years are likely to be.
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May 5, 2017 12:36
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hakimashou posted:The people you care about are being made much worse off by corbynista petulance and the great boon of help it gives to the tories. The alternative was both parties agreeing that they need to die, but Labour looking mildly upset about it. I'm not clear on how that's an improvement.
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May 5, 2017 12:36
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Very sensible considering there's another election next month. Also I'm a little annoyed to constantly see UKIP results as 'heavy' rather than 'total' losses. I guess it's to not need to change it if they actually hold onto a seat somewhere, but come on!
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May 5, 2017 12:37
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Darth Walrus posted:The alternative was both parties agreeing that they need to die, but Labour looking mildly upset about it. I'm not clear on how that's an improvement. The only way we can actually help anyone is to just repackage austerity and neoliberalism as "progressive" and then congratulate ourselves when the public chooses Labour to carry on the status quo rather than the Tories.
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May 5, 2017 12:42
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ukle posted:This is the problem, who ever comes after Corbyn will not win a GE. The state the party will be left in when Corbyn finally goes will mean they have to have a 15%+ swing to have any chance of forming government, which just doesn't happen even with the disaster that the next 5 years are likely to be. If the most recent opinion polls are right the vote share for Labour will be broadly similar as under Ed Miliband, although obviously polls aren't especially reliable. The vote share change in England so far in these local elections is -2% for Labour. Labour may suffer a heavy defeat in the GE, but it seems unlikely to be because of a collapse in it's share of the vote. In that regard blaming Corbyn for the 'state of the party' is ignoring Brexit and UKIP as factors.
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May 5, 2017 12:42
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jabby posted:Out of interest who of the left-wing candidates would you prefer to replace Corbyn? And I mean actually considered on the left of the party, not Blair or Blair Mk. 2. Corbyn needs to be humiliated again in June for there to be any chance he'll stand down. Even then I don't think he will. Ask me again if and when he does.
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May 5, 2017 12:41
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MikeCrotch posted:My gut feeling for the GE is Labour has around the same vote share as 2015 but loses 20+ seats due to UKIP votes transferring to Tory. Not a whole lot you can do i the face of 50% of voters declaring their preference for nationalism, whether they admit it or not. Changing the political landscape for voters is going to take a lot more work and effort than can be done in 4 weeks, no matter how many popular policies Labour puts out. Somehow having a widely read media who don't spread no poor or brown people allowed would be a start.
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May 5, 2017 12:42
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Pissflaps posted:Corbyn needs to be humiliated again in June for there to be any chance he'll stand down. Even then I don't think he will. "Don't know" still looking strong after the local election results
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May 5, 2017 12:44
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