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hooman
Oct 11, 2007

This guy seems legit.
Fun Shoe

JBP posted:

Being able to get a tax break on genuine savings for a house is not the shittest idea ever mooted, particularly considering the government of Australia right now. If I could bank my $500 a month or so like I do now and get tax concessions on it plus interest, I'd be pretty happy with that.

e: that's if I was saving for a house and not to take debauched holidays in third world countries.

The problem is it's no solution to housing affordability because the kind of person who would gain the best advantage from and can afford to reduce their taxable income (ie. high income) isn't the kind of person who is totally locked out of the property market (low income).

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The Before Times
Mar 8, 2014

Once upon a time, I would have thrown you halfway to the moon for a crack like that.

JBP posted:

Being able to get a tax break on genuine savings for a house is not the shittest idea ever mooted, particularly considering the government of Australia right now. If I could bank my $500 a month or so like I do now and get tax concessions on it plus interest, I'd be pretty happy with that.

e: that's if I was saving for a house and not to take debauched holidays in third world countries.

agreed, but something tells me there'll be a catch, because why wouldn't you just salary sacrifice enough first home savings to take you down a tax bracket and profit hardcore on that?

hooman posted:

The problem is it's no solution to housing affordability because the kind of person who would gain the best advantage from and can afford to reduce their taxable income (ie. high income) isn't the kind of person who is totally locked out of the property market (low income).

yeah

also the catch is that it'd increase demand and make prices inflate EVEN FURTHER

NoNotTheMindProbe
Aug 9, 2010
pony porn was here
It's also worth remembering that HECS/HELP repayments are calculated off your annual gross and salary-sacrificing will gently caress you unless you remember to tell your payroll to pay extra tax each fortnight.

JBP
Feb 16, 2017

You've got to know, to understand,
Baby, take me by my hand,
I'll lead you to the promised land.

hooman posted:

The problem is it's no solution to housing affordability because the kind of person who would gain the best advantage from and can afford to reduce their taxable income (ie. high income) isn't the kind of person who is totally locked out of the property market (low income).

Middle income younger people are locked out as well, which was never the case historically. I don't earn a lot of money and I don't save a lot of money, but something is better than nothing and it only counts for your first home, so you can't be using it to buy a shitload of property. Like I am 33 and live with my GF, we don't pull down fat stacks or anything like that, but we also don't earn minimum wage. We could save $1000 a month combined by foregoing a few things which adds up to a lot of money with a tax incentive and interest. Sure someone on over $100k a year is getting more benefit, but they're already in the game and it's only their first home that they can use it for. If they did away with negative gearing and replaced it with something like this system for one house I'd be all for it.

I'm not saying wow this is great, I'm just saying given the government situation it's better than nothing. Please commence firing your guaranteed minimum income and free housing arguments at me because I am out of touch.

The Before Times posted:

agreed, but something tells me there'll be a catch, because why wouldn't you just salary sacrifice enough first home savings to take you down a tax bracket and profit hardcore on that?

Oh yeah there will be some kind of monstrous loving humdinger of a catch in there. The tax bracket sacrifice thing wouldn't make a difference to me as my income is under 87k. I have on the other hand paid my HECS off, which is nice.

JBP fucked around with this message at 09:08 on May 9, 2017

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
...
Giving people more money to buy houses just means people spend more money on houses. They don't become anymore affordable and any of the 'bonus' is negated by higher prices.

JBP
Feb 16, 2017

You've got to know, to understand,
Baby, take me by my hand,
I'll lead you to the promised land.
Prices are demonstrably cooling of late.

Bogan King
Jan 21, 2013

I'm not racist, I'm mates with Bangladesh, the guy who sells me kebabs. No, I don't know his real name.
You know what budget night needs more of? Grape memes

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008

You Am I
May 20, 2001

Me @ your poasting

I've got enough for a deposit on a place, but gently caress buying a house at the moment, especially since I would like to buy near where I currently rent.

What the government is proposing isn't making me change my mind.

JBP
Feb 16, 2017

You've got to know, to understand,
Baby, take me by my hand,
I'll lead you to the promised land.

You Am I posted:

I've got enough for a deposit on a place, but gently caress buying a house at the moment, especially since I would like to buy near where I currently rent.

What the government is proposing isn't making me change my mind.

:same:

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
Randoms on twitter talking about the banking levy being used to fund the NDIS, no source but wouldn't the optics of the banks resisting that be pretty amazing?

tithin
Nov 14, 2003


[Grandmaster Tactician]



JBP posted:

Prices are demonstrably cooling of late.

This is misleading, they're cooling everywhere except Sydney and Melbourne.

Anecdotes are not the plural of data, I get that, but I work as a credit assessor for a big 4 bank and I get to see a lot of house values on a daily basis across the country.

Valuations outside of Melbourne and Sydney are flat and falling - there's a good reason that the big 4 are now insisting on re-valuations on a lot of their property profiles / customer groups because in some cases, valuations haven't been done in up to 10 years.

Sales are taking upwards of six months to sell in parts of aus, and multiple years in other parts because they just cant find the buyers.

Anecdotally, I recall one couple in WA buying a property for $600k at the peak of the market, and after two years on the market they sold it for $250k

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Periphery posted:

So I can just live of the money I've saved for a deposit while salary sacrificing 100% of my income resulting in a big bonus from the government to use on a house deposit?

negative gear your deposit so you can buy a house to negatively gear?

JBP
Feb 16, 2017

You've got to know, to understand,
Baby, take me by my hand,
I'll lead you to the promised land.

tithin posted:

This is misleading, they're cooling everywhere except Sydney and Melbourne.

Ah ok. I had it in my head that Melbourne was as well, perhaps I was misled myself. Sydney is a write off as far as I'm concerned.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

tithin posted:

This is misleading, they're cooling everywhere except Sydney and Melbourne.

Anecdotes are not the plural of data, I get that, but I work as a credit assessor for a big 4 bank and I get to see a lot of house values on a daily basis across the country.

Valuations outside of Melbourne and Sydney are flat and falling - there's a good reason that the big 4 are now insisting on re-valuations on a lot of their property profiles / customer groups because in some cases, valuations haven't been done in up to 10 years.

Sales are taking upwards of six months to sell in parts of aus, and multiple years in other parts because they just cant find the buyers.

Anecdotally, I recall one couple in WA buying a property for $600k at the peak of the market, and after two years on the market they sold it for $250k

pity that's all linked to high unemployment because i'd love to get a job in one of those places and cash in on that sweet sweet affordable housing

Gentleman Baller
Oct 13, 2013
Without hearing any real details, it sounds to me like the first home buyers grant 2, for fewer, richer people. Which means it would probably be good for the people who get in during the first few months, and people working in property and bad for everyone else forever (which is approximately how long the policy will be in for)

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

JBP posted:

Ah ok. I had it in my head that Melbourne was as well, perhaps I was misled myself. Sydney is a write off as far as I'm concerned.

I think the latest edition of some statistic on house prices in Melbourne showed they hadn't grown nearly as much as they had in the past which some people suggested was the market getting close to it's peak

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
...

JBP posted:

Prices are demonstrably cooling of late.
In addition to what Tithin said:

That's pretty much irrelevant. The simple fact is that adding more demand to the system will never have a positive effect on housing affordability.

birdstrike
Oct 30, 2008

i;m gay

gay picnic defence posted:

I think the latest edition of some statistic on house prices in Melbourne showed they hadn't grown nearly as much as they had in the past which some people suggested was the market getting close to it's peak

this could give it the shot in the arm speculators need!

NoNotTheMindProbe
Aug 9, 2010
pony porn was here

JBP posted:

Ah ok. I had it in my head that Melbourne was as well, perhaps I was misled myself. Sydney is a write off as far as I'm concerned.

There's an apartment glut in Melbourne and Brisbane that is going to keep getting worse (or better YMMV) as new developments come online. There's no suggestion that it will spill over to houses though.

WhiskeyWhiskers
Oct 14, 2013


"هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)

Periphery posted:

In addition to what Tithin said:

That's pretty much irrelevant. The simple fact is that adding more demand to the system will never have a positive effect on housing affordability.

But those nice developers will see the market signal and increase supply and definitely won't continue an incestuous game of just buying up pre-existing homes!

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

NoNotTheMindProbe posted:

There's an apartment glut in Melbourne and Brisbane that is going to keep getting worse (or better YMMV) as new developments come online. There's no suggestion that it will spill over to houses though.

Sydney is getting a shitload of apartments around Green Square which might have a similar effect in the medium term.

JBP
Feb 16, 2017

You've got to know, to understand,
Baby, take me by my hand,
I'll lead you to the promised land.

NoNotTheMindProbe posted:

There's an apartment glut in Melbourne and Brisbane that is going to keep getting worse (or better YMMV) as new developments come online. There's no suggestion that it will spill over to houses though.

Why do people have to live in a house? What God given right do Australians have to a block?

WhiskeyWhiskers
Oct 14, 2013


"هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)
The one given to us by right of conquest and extermination. :australia:

Bogan King
Jan 21, 2013

I'm not racist, I'm mates with Bangladesh, the guy who sells me kebabs. No, I don't know his real name.

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
...

JBP posted:

Why do people have to live in a house? What God given right do Australians have to a block?

They don't, but nearly all the apartments built recently are absolute poo poo in terms of quality and design. If you are looking for anything but a small 1 or 2 bed apartment with paper thin walls, no storage space and a functionally challenging kitchen/living/dining space then you are poo poo out of luck. Oh, and that'll still set you back $400k+ in Melbourne. There are some 3 bed places but not nearly enough if you want to cater towards the diverse needs of the community.

Good luck finding anything that is even remotely suitable for a young family.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Periphery posted:

In addition to what Tithin said:

That's pretty much irrelevant. The simple fact is that adding more demand to the system will never have a positive effect on housing affordability.

Well technically if more people have a deposit to pay for a house they are more affordable. It just happens to throw a fuckload more fuel on the fire as well which is an entirely separate issue and not one I'm convinced the right believe exists

G-Spot Run
Jun 28, 2005
I'd happily live in an apartment but they don't make them in family configurations, just penthouses.

Chadzok
Apr 25, 2002

were the First Home Saver Accounts seriously that unpopular that literally no one even recalls them as evidence that this idea has already been tried?

(I used them purely because it was a free lunch and ended up getting the cash for whatever I wanted. the best of all possible results.)

I don't see the difference between pre-tax money vs the FHSA government co-contribution, either way it's money out of the govies pocket going into the industry. better than using money from super but still a poo poo idea, that's already been tried, that doesn't deal with the problem.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS
There was some talk of introducing new standards to force developers to build apartments that people might actually want to live in but the developers were having none of it. I suppose it doesn't matter when your business model consists of selling them off the plan to foreign investors who are more interested in the school zone than what the place actually looks like

Kafka Syrup
Apr 29, 2009

G-Spot Run posted:

I'd happily live in an apartment but they don't make them in family configurations, just penthouses.

Same. I'd jump on a 3/4 bedroom with a decent kitchen and some storage space. I don't need extra bathrooms, or giant bedrooms, or any of the bells and whistles developers throw in to make their shitboxes sell before people realise they'll fall to bits in 20 years.

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
...
In another sign the collapse is near:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-08/housing-market-peak-called-by-economists/8507404 posted:

Another steep fall in dwelling approvals is being taken as confirmation that Australia's record residential building boom is at or near its peak, and will start receding later this year.

Bureau of Statistics figures for March showed a 13.4 per cent slide in building approvals for dwellings, seasonally adjusted, led by a 22.5 per cent slump in apartment approvals, with a 4.3 per cent drop in the more stable detached house sector.

The decline was much steeper than analysts expected, with the consensus view being for a 4 per cent fall overall and the most pessimistic forecast for an 8 per cent decline.

Westpac's Matthew Hassan wrote in a note on the data that the drop was primarily due to the previously booming high-rise apartment sector.

"The detail points to a virtual collapse in 'high-rise' approvals, down about 50 per cent month-on-month to the lowest monthly reading since July 2013," he wrote.

Mr Hassan said recent data point towards a quicker and sharper end to the construction boom than had previously been anticipated by most analysts.

"Overall this is clearly still a very weak update with the pull back in high rise pointing to a more aggressive downturn than previously suggested," he wrote.

"The renewed weakness in private sector house approvals is also of note – given the shorter time lines on this type of construction it suggests the dwelling investment cycle is turning a little quicker than previously anticipated with a contraction now more likely to start in late 2017 than 2018."

JP Morgan economist Henry St John agreed that the decline in approvals over recent months pointed towards an imminent peak in construction activity, which is likely to start declining later this year.

"The weakening trend in dwelling approvals is pointing towards more subdued activity in the residential housing market as we move through 2017," he wrote in a note on the data.

"Dwelling approvals tend to lead residential investment activity by several quarters."

The data came as no surprise to analysts at UBS, who recently wrote that they believe the peak in dwelling construction is already at hand.

"Today's approvals data reinforce our call that the peak in resi construction is now, and a correction (but not collapse) lies ahead," they wrote today.

Thank god the economy hasn't been propped up by construction jobs!

Oh poo poo.

WhiskeyWhiskers
Oct 14, 2013


"هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)

Smashed Avo
Cocaine is the reason people can't afford houses!

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS
I'd happily live in an apartment except carrying the kayak up and down stairs would be a pain in the arse so i'm pretty much limited to units with a lockable garage

Periphery
Jul 27, 2003
...

gay picnic defence posted:

There was some talk of introducing new standards to force developers to build apartments that people might actually want to live in but the developers were having none of it. I suppose it doesn't matter when your business model consists of selling them off the plan to foreign investors who are more interested in the school zone than what the place actually looks like

Melbourne recently brought these in but as you'd expect the developer lobby made sure they were pretty watered down. Sydney has had them for a while but I don't know much about theirs - except that Melbourne's standards are generally lower.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Periphery posted:

In another sign the collapse is near:


Thank god the economy hasn't been propped up by construction jobs!

Oh poo poo.

This happened right before the housing crash in the US too iirc

G-Spot Run
Jun 28, 2005
To clarify, many of the 3 bedroom places I've seen (or 2.5 as one is usually only big enough for a single so it's an overstated study/nursery, which is fine but let's be clear) would have the "children's" bedrooms on a separate floor to the parents, often kids on the entry way floor which isn't safe imo.

Solemn Sloth
Jul 11, 2015

Baby you can shout at me,
But you can't need my eyes.

JBP posted:

Being able to get a tax break on genuine savings for a house is not the shittest idea ever mooted, particularly considering the government of Australia right now. If I could bank my $500 a month or so like I do now and get tax concessions on it plus interest, I'd be pretty happy with that.

e: that's if I was saving for a house and not to take debauched holidays in third world countries.

Actually it's a loving poo poo idea due to the way pre-tax spending interacts with marginal tax rates

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Periphery posted:

Melbourne recently brought these in but as you'd expect the developer lobby made sure they were pretty watered down. Sydney has had them for a while but I don't know much about theirs - except that Melbourne's standards are generally lower.

I think those tiny 'dog box' apartments are still ok in Melbourne. It even took the near incineration of one tower to force the introduction of restrictions on highly flammable cladding, which the developers had previously deemed an unnecessary inconvenience (and therefore the government hadn't introduced it)

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I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008

“At the Liberal event, young men skolled the final remnants of beer and wine that was left in half-full glasses and planned to meet at different locations around the Sydney CBD. Some were heading to The Ivy—the natural kick-on location for this set. Others would head to the casino. Some invited groups back to private rooms in the hotel.
One group had a small bag of coke stored in the back of their room’s TV. It was then racked up using, appropriately, a Medicare card to split the white powder and then hoovered down by young women, clutching at their nostrils.
I packed up my gear and made my way down the escalators of the hotel. Descending ahead of me was a group of the young Liberal faithful, dressed as mini-Malcolm Turnbulls, sporting Herringbone suits, Hermès ties and matching pocket squares. They started a chant:
“gently caress LABOR!”
“gently caress LABOR!”
“gently caress LABOR!”
Arm-in-arm they continued all the way to the bottom floor of the hotel, spilling out onto the street and into waiting taxis.”

Excerpt From: Mark Di Stefano. “What a Time to be Alive.” iBooks.

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