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I'm not sure the PYD knows what it wants any more than most of the other factions, but I do think it's interesting that people have just accepted the idea that PKK=YPG/J=PYD=TEV-DEM=Rojava=SDF=Northern Syria. A hell of a lot has changed in the last five years and, these days, I'm becoming increasingly skeptical of the people who still have the mindset that Northern Syria is just "The Kurds." I wholly admit that some of this is just based on their constant propaganda about SDF being a multiethnic fighting force and having local councils where Christians and Arabs are represented and the probably exaggerated numbers of their Assyrian, Turkmen, and Arab battalions, but it does seem like there is an active effort in the region to create a Northern Syria that actually is more than just a PYD domain. There also have been counter efforts to keep Kurds (or specific group of Kurds) in charge. Some of the oppressed "opposition" belong to that latter camp, some to the former. Who knows who's winning or how it will shake out? This whole situation is absurdly fluid between the war(s), the radical experiments in decentralized representation, and the thirty or so political parties active in Northern Syria. I won't claim to know how it will turn out. I don't think anyone in Rojava, including the PYD leadership, knows either. I'm taking a wait and see approach, for now. I like what TEV-DEM says they stand for and hope they live up to their ideals as it seems like the best hope for Syria, but I don't live there and I can't see what's happening on the ground. Ultimately, I think Northern Syria and the Assad regime have fundamentally opposed agendas and won't be able to peacefully coexist forever, but neither of them sees the other as an immediate threat so they've reached a compromise. Does this represent an original sin of the Rojava-cum-Northern Syrian government? Maybe, but I'm not so sure. We won't have to wait long to find out. The SDF has said several times that they're marching on Idlib next. The SAA controls the road to Aleppo, which separates the bulk of the SDF forces from Idlib and their people in Afrin canton. The only options if they're serious about driving Nusra out of Idlib are to push through the Turkish territory between Kobani and Afreen or cut south of Aleppo across government territory. If they attack the Turks, it could mean anything, but if they take the southern route, they'll either be coming as Assad's allies or his enemies. Cutting the road and taking Idlib would isolate Aleppo and Aleppo is the prize they'll be going for if they're serious about becoming "Northern Syria" proper. If they choose to fight beside the SAA instead, then we'll know the SDF was a fraud. Of course, things might come to a head even sooner depending on how Raqqa and Dar-ez-Zor shake out.
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May 15, 2017 10:42
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I like how the people advocating the PYD fighting the government think that the rebels, who explicitly rejected autonomy or independence for rojava, would suddenly change their mind when they became the new regime. At least a regime on shaky ground has to negotiate, whereas a rebel victory with enough of the Sunni arab population on board would probably seek to crush the PYD and everything they stand for.
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May 15, 2017 10:49
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Surely the SAA's been told by Russia not to gently caress with SDF and vice versa because both the US and Russia would prefer to avoid a full proxy war and instead keep it to two different simultaneous civil wars?
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May 15, 2017 10:56
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IS media publishes images of three suicide bombers from yesterday (I assume SVBIED) https://twitter.com/geopolitiquee/status/863852670045573120 christ, two of these guys are just kids
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May 15, 2017 11:11
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Duckbag posted:I'm not sure the PYD knows what it wants any more than most of the other factions, but I do think it's interesting that people have just accepted the idea that PKK=YPG/J=PYD=TEV-DEM=Rojava=SDF=Northern Syria. A hell of a lot has changed in the last five years and, these days, I'm becoming increasingly skeptical of the people who still have the mindset that Northern Syria is just "The Kurds." I wholly admit that some of this is just based on their constant propaganda about SDF being a multiethnic fighting force and having local councils where Christians and Arabs are represented and the probably exaggerated numbers of their Assyrian, Turkmen, and Arab battalions, but it does seem like there is an active effort in the region to create a Northern Syria that actually is more than just a PYD domain. There also have been counter efforts to keep Kurds (or specific group of Kurds) in charge. Some of the oppressed "opposition" belong to that latter camp, some to the former. Who knows who's winning or how it will shake out? It's not the PYD becoming more multi-ethnic that is causing that. It's a function of them conquering more territory that's minority Kurdish. Fairly old estimates have Kurds as a slim majority in I guess Greater Rojava, so it's a safe bet that if they aren't a minority in the territory they control yet, they are close to it. The reaction to that is an attempt to appear multiethnic. The Assad regime did the same thing in that situation. But the reality is that the only party with any influence there is the PYD. And that's likely not going to change, because the situation isn't that fluid. Most of those parties don't have armed wings, and of the ones that do, you're talking about hundreds of men, not thousands. They can do little more than annoy the YPG. The only area where there's internal dissent with enough organization to challenge the PYD is in Qamishli, and even there, they aren't able to resist much. The PYD have exploited that and simply responded by functioning as a police state in the city. It's a very frequent location where the abductions and raids happen. Likewise, you can't extract concessions out of the PYD diplomatically. That was attempted with the Erbil agreement, which was meant to provide a structure for power sharing which would unify Kurdish policy in Syria. The PYD undermined it with everything they had, turning the unity government into little more than a puppet, which led to instead tensions within the Kurdish community. They took a step towards civil war rather than adopt a more democratic platform that would see them lose any influence. The bottom line is that within Rojava, there's no one who can challenge the PYD. But when you start talking about Raqqa and Idlib and all these other predominantly Arab areas with large populations, that's not likely to be the case. And all this stuff boiling under the surface could easily burst.
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May 15, 2017 11:23
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Volkerball posted:It's not the PYD becoming more multi-ethnic that is causing that. It's a function of them conquering more territory that's minority Kurdish. Fairly old estimates have Kurds as a slim majority in I guess Greater Rojava, so it's a safe bet that if they aren't a minority in the territory they control yet, they are close to it. The reaction to that is an attempt to appear multiethnic. The Assad regime did the same thing in that situation. But the reality is that the only party with any influence there is the PYD. And that's likely not going to change, because the situation isn't that fluid. Most of those parties don't have armed wings, and of the ones that do, you're talking about hundreds of men, not thousands. They can do little more than annoy the YPG. The only area where there's internal dissent with enough organization to challenge the PYD is in Qamishli, and even there, they aren't able to resist much. The PYD have exploited that and simply responded by functioning as a police state in the city. It's a very frequent location where the abductions and raids happen. Why should every Kurdish party bow to an agreement written by Barzani? Barzani is an Ottoman stooge.
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May 15, 2017 11:34
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Volkerball posted:I think he has a point here, though I don't think that women's rights is at the center of it. Take this recent article by a citizen journalist in Manbij, for instance. So I actually read this article and a lot of this probably can be chalked up to the deeply weird situation in Manbij. As you'll recall, last year the Turks and their militias started a shooting war with the SDF under the pretext of driving PKK terrorists east of the Euphrates. The local SDF-installed council in Manbij didn't particularly like this plan, but the Turks were insistent on driving the YPG/PYD out of Manbij and kept pressing them to the extent that it was derailing their operations against ISIS. The US started out backing the Turks and calling for a PYD-withdrawal and the PYD said they were leaving but didn't really leave and the US waffled (thanks Obama) which is when Russia intervened and set up a deal where the region would come under nominal regime control in exchange for the Turks and their militias leaving it alone. That's why the regime was there officially, but not really running things and why the PKK/PYD was really running things, but not there officially. Without that context, the whole thing is pretty incomprehensible and I think it would be a mistake to suggest that Manbij is typical for Arab towns taken by the SDF. That said, I'm inclined to believe the stories about shady PKK guys running things from the shadows and treating the Arab-dominated civilian council like puppets. It was a fractious, recently conquered/liberated town on the edge of TFSA, ISIS, and SAA territory and they probably were watching it like a hawk with no idea which of the locals they could trust. I don't think it was a good arrangement, but things do seem to have changed since the US set up in Manbij and wiki tells me they've formed a new (and hopefully more useful) civilian government. I don't like that the Assad regime is back in Manbij, but apparently the US state department is cool with it, so who am I to argue?  As for the stolen/appropriated grain silos, Kobane was ravaged by ISIS and they probably thought it needed them more. Still a lovely thing to do, of course.WhiskeyWhiskers posted:Surely the SAA's been told by Russia not to gently caress with SDF and vice versa because both the US and Russia would prefer to avoid a full proxy war and instead keep it to two different simultaneous civil wars? Bingo.
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May 15, 2017 11:39
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Duckbag posted:I don't like that the Assad regime is back in Manbij, but apparently the US state department is cool with it, so who am I to argue? State is so understaffed that they might not even know about it. The military is in charge of US Syrian policy right now.
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May 15, 2017 11:49
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El Disco posted:State is so understaffed that they might not even know about it. The military is in charge of US Syrian policy right now. It's pretty hosed up that I find this preferable than the current alternative
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May 15, 2017 11:50
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The Kurds will probably be happy enough handing over relatively population dense Arab areas like Raqqa to the SAA in the medium term. They'll doubtless get some fairly significant concessions in return, and will get to ensure they remain a Kurdish majority state. I think ideally for the Kurds they'd swap any of the territory along the Southern portion of the Euphrates they take for the possibility of establishing a corridor to Afrin. But that depends on if the SAA is in a position to offer that, ie if Turkey retains its holdings in Northern Syria or not.
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May 15, 2017 11:51
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Panzeh posted:Why should every Kurdish party bow to an agreement written by Barzani? Barzani is an Ottoman stooge. Why agree to it in the first place then? They made the deal, and they've also made deals with Assad. They didn't take some sort of moral high ground. Whether you like it or not, there are Kurdish people in Syria who don't support the PYD. And some of those people support KDP aligned parties. And those people deserve a seat at the table just as much as PYD supporters do. Attempting to crush those parties politically based on the claims of them being closet jihadists, or regime allies, or Barzani stooges, or whatever the flavor of the month is, is just a flimsy justification for authoritarian power grabs.
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May 15, 2017 12:04
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Volkerball posted:Why agree to it in the first place then? They made the deal, and they've also made deals with Assad. They didn't take some sort of moral high ground. Whether you like it or not, there are Kurdish people in Syria who don't support the PYD. And some of those people support KDP aligned parties. And those people deserve a seat at the table just as much as PYD supporters do. Attempting to crush those parties politically based on the claims of them being closet jihadists, or regime allies, or Barzani stooges, or whatever the flavor of the month is, is just a flimsy justification for authoritarian power grabs. I'm sure a neocon would support the right-wing KDP the same way I support the left-wing PYD. If you'e going to fight for socialism, you have to support the socialists. If you want to make the middle east a better place, you can't let the right win.
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May 15, 2017 12:36
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Blut posted:The Kurds will probably be happy enough handing over relatively population dense Arab areas like Raqqa to the SAA in the medium term. They'll doubtless get some fairly significant concessions in return, and will get to ensure they remain a Kurdish majority state. I don't know, the TEV-DEM people have said many times that they see democratic confederalism as their model for all of Syria and actually broke with the KDP/KNC in part because they had ambitions to expand beyond the Kurdish heartland (also because they hate Barzani and Edogan). PKK nationalism is certainly part of their DNA, but they also seem to have hitched themselves onto an expansionist train and don't quite know how to get off. Of course, it's not necessarily their choice to make. The US and Russia are watching this situation very carefully. The Trump administration must know they'll get crucified in the press if Raqqa and DeZ go back to Assad, but Russia and Assad will want the regime back in place. A Manbij style "power-sharing" arrangement with that part of the map staying yellow, but regime officials (but probably not SAA) coming back in seems like the most likely outcome. Volkerball posted:Why agree to it in the first place then? They made the deal, and they've also made deals with Assad. They didn't take some sort of moral high ground. Whether you like it or not, there are Kurdish people in Syria who don't support the PYD. And some of those people support KDP aligned parties. And those people deserve a seat at the table just as much as PYD supporters do. Attempting to crush those parties politically based on the claims of them being closet jihadists, or regime allies, or Barzani stooges, or whatever the flavor of the month is, is just a flimsy justification for authoritarian power grabs. How much support does KDP really have in Syria though? My impression was that they more more influential among the diaspora/exile community than in Rojava itself. In any case, their history of alignment with the Barzani clique is very real and goes back decades. I do worry about PKK/PYD dominance in Rojava, but I'm not sure anyone aligned with Barzani and, by extension, Erdogan is a viable alternative in the current atmosphere.
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May 15, 2017 12:48
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Panzeh posted:I'm sure a neocon would support the right-wing KDP the same way I support the left-wing PYD. If you'e going to fight for socialism, you have to support the socialists. If you want to make the middle east a better place, you can't let the right win. I don't support the KDP. I'm just not a big fan of the law of the jungle where whoever has the biggest stick gets to dictate the rules, because that comes with an awful lot of consequences going unchecked. In this case, extreme ethnic nationalism that has led to the oppression of minorities. There's nothing left wing about that. Duckbag posted:How much support does KDP really have in Syria though? My impression was that they more more influential among the diaspora/exile community than in Rojava itself. In any case, their history of alignment with the Barzani clique is very real and goes back decades. I do worry about PKK/PYD dominance in Rojava, but I'm not sure anyone aligned with Barzani and, by extension, Erdogan is a viable alternative in the current atmosphere. It's hard telling. They definitely have support around Qamishli though. Qamishli was host to the Qamishli riots not so long ago, so they have more reason than most to hate the regime. That's where Mashaal Tammo's funeral was after he was assassinated by the regime, and the turnout for that was so large that it was the initial cause for the regime to largely pull its forces out of the region. The KNC has been very vocally against the regime from the get go, whereas the PYD sat on the fence, so that might be a reason for the division in the city. And of course, we're not just talking about KDP aligned parties here. Assyrian parties are another that have seen their offices raided. I'm sure there's Kurdish factions that sit somewhere outside of, or between, the PYD and the KDP as well, but it's hard telling exact figures since the government has marginalized them. My gut says that the PYD has majority support among Kurds in Syria, but even if that's the case, it's no excuse. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 13:39 on May 15, 2017 |
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May 15, 2017 13:34
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The KDP rules Northern Iraq through the same kind of big stick politics so it's difficult to really see a distinction here.
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May 15, 2017 13:58
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https://twitter.com/dailysabah/status/863811161153835012 Turkey knows what's up.
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May 15, 2017 14:02
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Just wanna say that I appreciate y'all taking the time to respond to me and discuss that issue. Don't think that my opinion on the PYD has changed, but I have some more things to look into and follow now.
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May 15, 2017 14:23
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It's super cool that everyones favorite ethno-nationalists are helping and handing over arab syrians and towns to Assad. there's no other option. at all. ever. actually if you think about it it's the oppositions fault that leftists and socialists were murdered immediately while we watched and had no other backers or people to turn to than turkey and islamists, so it's kind of their fault, they deserve to die, really, who cares? what? mass death camps and literal crematoriums? SHUT UP YOU ARAB SUPREMACIST ROJAAAAAVAAAAAAAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaa......... https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...m=.593e71d02dee Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 17:46 on May 15, 2017 |
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May 15, 2017 17:44
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Al-Saqr posted:It's super cool that everyones favorite ethno-nationalists are helping and handing over arab syrians and towns to Assad. there's no other option. at all. ever. actually if you think about it it's the oppositions fault that leftists and socialists were murdered immediately while we watched and had no other backers or people to turn to than turkey and islamists, so it's kind of their fault, they deserve to die, really, who cares? The opposition did do their best to purge leftists and socialists to appeal to obama, yes. They thought that would appeal to the US. lol, joke's on them.
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May 15, 2017 17:52
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I want to see how this plays out. Raqqa might be Assad In Name Only, where in reality it is policed by a less malevolent regional council. The SDF is making wise choices as they go about liberating places divorcing the Kurdish association while its a plain truth the peace it won and kept by Kurds. Raqqa is a massive prize and I think the Kurds are wise to explore their options for liberation. It will likely be lawless and ungovernable in any case, but that's my glass-half-full reading of the situation.
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May 15, 2017 18:05
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The only statements I've seen is that the SDF will hand over Raqqa to a local Civic council. Obviously there's a lot of speculation that this council will end up being taken over by the regime, but it's not cast in stone. I mean if the SDF had said they would keep Raqqa there'd be much the same screaming in here by the same anti-Kurd chauvinist group about Kurds daring to claim sacred Arab lands.
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May 15, 2017 18:14
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I can't imagine why the Kurds might have turned to ethnic nationalism except for all the history of persecution they've faced at the hands of their neighbors.
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May 15, 2017 18:21
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Yes, the choice is either help out the revolution which was co opted by turkey backed Islamists or the Syrian government who killed a lot of people. Those are literally the choices.
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May 15, 2017 18:24
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Al-Saqr posted:It's super cool that everyones favorite ethno-nationalists are helping and handing over arab syrians and towns to Assad. there's no other option. at all. ever. actually if you think about it it's the oppositions fault that leftists and socialists were murdered immediately while we watched and had no other backers or people to turn to than turkey and islamists, so it's kind of their fault, they deserve to die, really, who cares? Agreed, I think we should give more TOW missiles to the child beheaders who want to exterminate all Alawites and Shia instead. It's almost as if the SDF are currently the least bad option out of a whole lot of pretty bad options.
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May 15, 2017 18:32
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OctaMurk posted:Agreed, I think we should give more TOW missiles to the child beheaders who want to exterminate all Alawites and Shia instead. It's almost as if the SDF are currently the least bad option out of a whole lot of pretty bad options. You know, most of the rebel groups, especially the smaller more local ones, aren't cartoonish ISIS villains. Islamists to a certain extent sure, but to a large extent they haven't really done much or any of the child beheading and the wholesale killing of Alawites and Shia. Most of the time you are talking about local fighters defending their town, village or neighborhood with not much organization or plans beyond that and a desire to defeat the government.
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May 15, 2017 18:43
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Randarkman posted:You know, most of the rebel groups, especially the smaller more local ones, aren't cartoonish ISIS villains. Islamists to a certain extent sure, but to a large extent they haven't really done much or any of the child beheading and the wholesale killing of Alawites and Shia. Most of the time you are talking about local fighters defending their town, village or neighborhood with not much organization or plans beyond that and a desire to defeat the government. Shhhhh stop it you're making it harder for him to use mental gymnastics to turn a blind eye and dehumanize people being sent to the ovens. :shhh: Rust Martialis posted:I mean if the SDF had said they would keep Raqqa there'd be much the same screaming in here by the same anti-Kurd chauvinist group about Kurds daring to claim sacred Arab lands. No not really I would much rather the SDF take control of Raqqa and keep it than shove it's people into Assad and his Ovens. there's no 'sacred arab lands' but there is 'please dont hand me over to a mass gasser who has a fancy oven operation'. but no, no choice at all,nope, apparently their brand of socialism is for one ethnic race only. OctaMurk posted:Agreed, I think we should give more TOW missiles to the child beheaders who want to exterminate all Alawites and Shia instead. It's almost as if the SDF are currently the least bad option out of a whole lot of pretty bad options. other than you being a complete retard who is trying his best to dehumanize the entirety of the people getting gassed by assad and getting shoved into his ovens I would love to hear why Assad is the only option left to them other than either they take control or hand it to an unaffiliated Civil group not commanded by assad. In any case, loving the mental gymnastics on display here. Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 19:01 on May 15, 2017 |
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May 15, 2017 18:58
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Blut posted:Whats wrong with orange shirts? Wearing light colors in certain conservative areas during muharram (especially during Ashoora and Tasooah) and is considered an offense, while in other cities you won't be looked down on, but you may be warned. Drinking Alcohol during muharram will result in either a heavy fine and lashing or execution. When I was caught, this was back in 2012, so I don't know how things are during those times because I especially avoid going back during those times. Five was enough and I don't wish it even on my worst enemy.
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May 15, 2017 19:58
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This seems likely to go over well. https://twitter.com/politico/status/864141170015952896
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May 15, 2017 21:31
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Oh good Lord. This thread has the dumbest community.
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May 15, 2017 21:58
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Sinteres posted:This seems likely to go over well. Yeah takes real political courage not to embroil the US in yet another pointless ME conflict on behalf of the Gulf States and Turkey.
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May 15, 2017 22:06
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...sm_tw&tid=sm_tw lol @ 21st century US foreign policy
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May 15, 2017 22:17
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Al-Saqr posted:It's super cool that everyones favorite ethno-nationalists are helping and handing over arab syrians and towns to Assad. there's no other option. at all. ever. actually if you think about it it's the oppositions fault that leftists and socialists were murdered immediately while we watched and had no other backers or people to turn to than turkey and islamists, so it's kind of their fault, they deserve to die, really, who cares? Assad has completed his transformation into Literally Hitler. Brother Friendship posted:https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...sm_tw&tid=sm_tw I love our retarded pissbaby president.
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May 15, 2017 22:28
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Volkerball posted:Oh good Lord. This thread has the dumbest community. lol at least It's not my money that's getting wasted.
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May 15, 2017 22:31
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https://twitter.com/usembassysyria/status/864138586672828416 https://twitter.com/SkylightSyria/status/864187524746530817
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May 15, 2017 22:33
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Al-Saqr posted:lol at least It's not my money that's getting wasted. As a STALKER fan I'm sad to see the Roadside Picnic avatar go 
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May 15, 2017 22:39
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El Disco posted:As a STALKER fan I'm sad to see the Roadside Picnic avatar go I think at this point unless it's a mod changing it someone had spent 30-40 dollars spent on my avatar changing three or four times so I guess that lets me know how much I should expect to make when I become a street corner ranter.
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May 15, 2017 22:41
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Al-Saqr posted:I think at this point unless it's a mod changing it someone had spent 30-40 dollars spent on my avatar changing three or four times so I guess that lets me know how much I should expect to make when I become a street corner ranter. jaa, nautii penikwesstä
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May 15, 2017 22:48
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Bets on who? Israel or Jordan would be my guess. Hopefully it comes out.
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May 15, 2017 22:51
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more details on the middle eastern Aushwitz:- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/15/us-accuses-syria-mass-killingsf-prisoners-burned-bodies
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May 15, 2017 22:53
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Coldwar timewarp posted:Bets on who? Israel or Jordan would be my guess. Hopefully it comes out. Jordan.
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May 15, 2017 22:56
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