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theflyingorc posted:....I don't have confidence, you giant moron. My entire point is that this is still up in the air. One of us is "Hillary can't possibly lose" in this argument, and it isn't me. Why do you start every single one of your posts with an ellipsis?
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May 25, 2017 04:26
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Wistful of Dollars posted:I'm not sure being caught with a loaded weapon is a detriment in the US. Especially in Montana. Lots of guns there, most likely out number people.
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May 25, 2017 04:26
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hannity touch the orb
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May 25, 2017 04:27
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https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/867571120509210624?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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May 25, 2017 04:27
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SirPablo posted:My friends in MT claim Quist will lose because nothing matters (still). Also https://twitter.com/vmiddendorf/status/867573961047121921 I somehow doubt that Mr. Middendorf is using a representative sample.
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May 25, 2017 04:27
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Niton posted:Non-religious (well, less religious) rural america is definitely a demographic that the Dems should reach out more to. While they're not super-liberal, there's a lot of decent folk out there who definitely feel marginalized now that "their" party has turned into the same religious nutjobs they're terrified of. It's probably a place where they can have some luck on the local level, even if it ever turns out dividends on the presidential level.
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May 25, 2017 04:27
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theflyingorc posted:So you can't read while you post the same garbage again and again. Mysteriously I make a bunch of posts in this and the previous thread where I don't have you leaping at me out of nowhere. You only do it when I post something negative at which point you start screaming about how it's all I post. I'm certain that's a coincidence.
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May 25, 2017 04:27
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Rigel posted:yeah, everyone knows whats going on with Fox. They are burning Gianforte now so that they can explain to their audience that the crazyman who committed a felony in front of 3 and a half witnesses the night before the election did not lose because of Trump or health care. Dem turnout will be boosted by the win regardless, in fact maybe more. This gives a wildcard factor to pretty much any election - you never know, the republican might suddenly commit a felony right before the election, show up and loving vote.
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May 25, 2017 04:28
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Zil posted:Especially in Montana. Lots of guns there, most likely out number people. Lots of sheep loving too.
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May 25, 2017 04:29
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empty whippet box posted:Dem turnout will be boosted by the win regardless, in fact maybe more. This gives a wildcard factor to pretty much any election - you never know, the republican might suddenly commit a felony right before the election, show up and loving vote. Montana allows same day registration too.
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May 25, 2017 04:29
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axeil posted:It just seems odd to me that a state with one at-large district has a completely different dynamic from its Senate races. TBF the GOP has a history of running the absolute goddamn worst people in the state, it's impressive how inept and bad some of them have been. My favorite was Governor Judy Martz, whose highlights include telling a room full of battered women "my husband has never beaten me, but I've never given him a reason to", and pulling a Ray Lewis by washing the bloody clothes of an aide who showed up shitfaced on her doorstep in the middle of the night.
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May 25, 2017 04:29
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axeil posted:It just seems odd to me that a state with one at-large district has a completely different dynamic from its Senate races. Yeah, that is kind of weird. There have been a few Democratic Senators and a few Dem Governors since they had a Dem House Rep. Hopefully that changes tomorrow.
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May 25, 2017 04:29
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Pollyanna posted:Why do you start every single one of your posts with an ellipsis? A lame, lazy way to show incredulity when trying to be condescending. I should probably stop doing it.
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May 25, 2017 04:30
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Things have mattered before. Things may matter again.
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May 25, 2017 04:30
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empty whippet box posted:Dem turnout will be boosted by the win regardless, in fact maybe more. This gives a wildcard factor to pretty much any election - you never know, the republican might suddenly commit a felony right before the election, show up and loving vote. The sad thing is that especially with the current state of the Republican party this isn't even a joke.
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May 25, 2017 04:30
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Alkydere posted:So, what has to happen before we start posting "Stop, Stop! He's already dead..."? Trump losing his reelection campaign and a wave of blue hits in 2018 and 2020. not happening but still dream it 
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May 25, 2017 04:30
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Hang that rear end in a top hat Sheriff next to Gianfonte. DC Murderverse posted:oh my god how can you gently caress up this bad? He will never be arrested if he wins, and he'll probably still win because our country is just that hosed up. The top story on every evening news show in Montana needs to be the assault with a mention that Gianfonte hasn't been taken in for questioning or arrested despite eye-witness accounts of the assault, and then just mention that this lack of action and the fact that the Sheriff is a Gianfonte donor is probably a coincidence. highme posted:He didn't body slam him, he was just trying to throw him into the ocean but came up short. "From sea to shining sea" makes a lot of sense when you consider Montana is part of both the east and west coast of the United States. ReidRansom posted:Jesus. The House isn't going to refuse to seat a Republican winner. They'd sooner impeach and charge the entire Trump administration. The Glumslinger posted:Apparently, we're up to 7 now USAA dropped him in a reply to that tweet. It's just amazing. Spiffster posted:Should that gif just be put in the OP at this point as a Status of the news? Probably.
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May 25, 2017 04:31
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Early voting also slants Dem I understand, so the people who might be turned off by their candidate violently attacking someone probably haven't voted yet
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May 25, 2017 04:31
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Furnaceface posted:I dont think so. Is there anything less than mattering but is still more than nothing? Possibly...ing? Disturbing
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May 25, 2017 04:31
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Is there any truth to the idea that Murdoch's kids are way more centrist than he is?Furnaceface posted:I used to live in Mississauga. Isn't that Denny's in the middle of a dead strip mall too? ISeeCuckedPeople posted:Do you even know where Mississauga is? Did you really think some guy with a Stephen Harper avatar would be anything but a Canadian, haha ImpAtom posted:No, I'm just tired of you freaking out the second anyone doesn't leap into your "everything is great and it's all going to be great and just be hopeful' hugparty, where any time I post something remotely negative in this thread you come at me like a frigging rabid honey badger. It's one House seat possibly being flipped, not someone claiming that the ghost of Tommy Douglas has a shot at being president. Calm down. D-Pad posted:This is gold because if Fox News is reporting it then it will be a lot harder for conservatives to claim it is fake news. I've seen Trumpedes claim that Fox News is now cuckservative since they backed away from the Seth Rich stuff. Of course, it doesn't matter what they think, the goal is to get your scared grandpa to see that Dems aren't so scary after all 
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May 25, 2017 04:32
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Gianforte grabbed Jacobs by the neck with both hands and slammed him into the ground behind him. Gianforte then began punching the reporter. Gianforte moved on top of Jacobs, he began yelling something to the effect of, "I'm sick and tired of this!".
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May 25, 2017 04:32
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So uhhh, I didn't see this posted in the thread yet (if it was, sorry!) but it looks like Trump Hotels is not reporting any of the money that foreign governments are paying them to stay in their hotel rooms. Another broken Trump promise! http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-failing-track-foreign-cash-his-hotels-n764061
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May 25, 2017 04:33
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Mahoning posted:The chaos orb claims its first of many victims. Hail Eris! Turns out the orb is just her apple thrown down to mortals to sow chaos.
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May 25, 2017 04:34
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Evil Fluffy posted:
Yeah they will, especially if video comes out, definitely if he's charged with a crime. Otherwise they're all tarred with the Party of Assault brush, and they get enough of that already from Trump. This guy isn't Trump so they have no reason to defend him. He'll step down, new election, over again.
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May 25, 2017 04:35
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Evil Fluffy posted:The House isn't going to refuse to seat a Republican winner. They'd sooner impeach and charge the entire Trump administration. At this point, with the audio and the report from witnesses (including Fox), I will confidently say that even if Gianforte wins tomorrow, the house will not seat him. MT-AL will either be Quist or another special election.
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May 25, 2017 04:37
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JeffersonClay posted:Support for charter schools is pretty consistent across racial groups so while this might accurately describe some people's conception of the issue it's not a complete picture. As somebody with first-hand experience working with charter schools, it's twofold: Parents of kids in really poor (majority minority) districts with underfunded, literally unsafe public schools like charters because they really, truly are often better than the alternative. Sure, a charter might: -have repressive, quasi-abusive codes and practices -use education philosophies and modalities that are rejected by mainstream education experts for good reason -rely on methods developed by 'gurus' and the literal loving Koch brothers in place of credited mentors -legally hire unlicensed teachers (often coming from fields outside education who want to "disrupt the field") -predominantly use compliance-based discipline systems that "break" kids into behaving and makes them good performers within the charter network and totally ill-equipped for college -unconsciously/consciously foster a "white makes right" mentality when engaging with the kids and doing non-instructional activities instead of training teachers and administrators to be culturally competent (I've seen this happen firsthand in schools that have 90%+ black/Latino kids and 90%+ white staff and the result is almost always that the kids fail to engage and get slapped with draconian punishments until they comply, wash rinse repeat...) Oftentimes, parents are legitimately thankful and fiercely defensive of the charter school their kid attends- even when wrongdoing is found. Other parents fight desperately to get their kids in. It's partially that many don't know any better- but even if they did, a clean and safe school where your kids will graduate high school and probably not get stabbed is better than the hellholes that many urban public schools have become. This is also why a lot of Democratic reps who represent minority districts like charters too. A charter is (supposedly) inexpensive, it gets bipartisan support pretty easily, and a network can often move in and set up shop in a district within months. Compare that to actual public school reform- it can take years, it's often politically unpopular with white/Republican voters, and it often dies and takes public office careers with it. Public schools are subject to tons of state/federal/union oversight, adding time and political danger. Meanwhile, charters are often free of a lot of that, depending on your state. Republicans like charters because they're basically just the privatization of public education. Aside from the simple philosophical victory that that represents, they're a convenient way to give certain white voters "the type of education that they choose" and also a convenient way to give certain black and brown voters the cheapest fix possible. They're also an easy way to give taxpayer money to your rich/religious/racist friends if that's your thing....And also have your wealthy friends fund (and therefore direct) a school with the aforementioned lack of oversight (Again, it depends by state- MA places a ton of restrictions and oversight on charters and they're super unpopular with voters who overwhelmingly rejected expanding the number of charters in 2016, other states are quite different. Texas has had charters that are basically just government-sanctioned embezzlement machines, where "administrators" made three quarters of a mil annually). Never mind that charter schools keep their costs down by: -refusing or under-supporting special ed and ELL kids (again, varies by state) -under-resourcing their facilities/just not having certain facilities or subjects. This also often means using corporate buildings (think strip mall or office park) and cheap equipment that isn't meant to stand up to being used in a school (i.e. office projectors that break 2/3s of the way through the Fall) -fostering direct relationships with Teach For America and, in many cases, predominantly hiring TFA'ers instead of teachers from traditional education programs (For those not in the know, TFA is a predominantly Koch-funded enterprise built around the idea that urban schools fail because commie/black union teachers are too lazy and corrupt to teach effectively and that the solution is to send young (white) college graduates with no education training or desire to teach long-term into the classroom for a year. Alternatively, a lot of TFA'ers become licensed teachers and get Masters through the program while training in a charter school. A lot of former TFA'ers who teach in charters are really good teachers and all the ones I've met have been super committed to their kids and very socially/politically/racially progressive. Ironically, they've also been indoctrinated to be rabidly pro-charter and anti-union, and to see public school teachers (many of who work in seriously unsafe schools and do it because they love their kids) as traitors and anti-student for their commitment to things like "evidence-based modalities" and "good/non-abusive working conditions for teachers". This brings me to my next point which is that: Charters often keep costs down by widely employing practices that simply would not fly in union schools: -charter teachers generally work much longer hours (80+ per week is common) than union teachers, for less pay (in MA, the average is like 20-30% less) -teachers and learning specialists are often understaffed and not given adequate support to meet state/federal standards (AND loving DO RIGHT BY THE KIDS) requiring them to be constantly working and covering their asses -because charter teaching methods often rely on disciplinary compliance as a stand-in for actual engagement (that would take more/better staff and disagrees with what the This means that the schools prioritize controlling the kids (and punishing the poo poo out of them) over effectively teaching or developing material and will aggressively discipline and fire teachers who aren't true believers or fall in line all of the time -charters will often overuse corporate management techniques that simply aren't allowed in union schools (because they can't reasonably be applied to education), including throwing trainee teachers on draconian PiPs for not perfectly executing norms (I once saw it happen to a teacher who'd literally increased exam scores by a letter grade over her predecessor but got observed talking a kid down instead of immediately referring him to the deans), in order to bully teachers into working harder for less pay and complying with often-unsound practices -charters often have teachers on at-will contracts and will fire them in circumstances that would bring on hell in union schools (for example, if a parent develops an irrational vendetta against a teacher in a union school- like, say, over their personal politics- the union and school will step in and tell the parent to pound sand. At a charter school, it's quite possible that the teacher is out on their rear end at the first sign of discontent) -charters have INSANE turnover and mostly rely on a replenishing crop of fresh young people/TFA'ers/career changers because they're hellish places to work- on average 2-5 years -charters often have maternity leave policies that more-or-less require female teachers to quit when they have kids, compared to the often much more generous plans that unions offer- at minimum, a union district will often let you leave for the school year with a job lined up for the year after I need to mention that it's not like a lot of the mentality behind charters is 100% wrong. A lot of teachers unions (Boston comes to mind) have major problems with mismanagement or with people in positions of power and influence who really shouldn't be there and don't work in good faith for students or teachers. These problems are often exacerbated in districts where schools are underfunded and underperforming. Takeover and receivership protocols are often done with a mind to be "fiscally responsible" (cheap) and punitive towards education staff. It's common for admins, principals, and even senior teachers in those positions to harden into mindsets of self-protection and cronyism. Still, "privatization" by way of selling the job of public schools to the lowest bidder is hardly a solution that works. TLDR: charter schools suck on balance, but there are complex reasons why they see relatively even support across demographics.
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May 25, 2017 04:39
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goddamn this owns
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May 25, 2017 04:39
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Caros posted:Other than the fact that it means they won't be concerned enough to back away from the healthcare bill. A Montana congressional seat means nothing. Keeping them from detonating the nation's healthcare system is a far more worthwhile goal unless you are going full accelerationist. 'this seat means nothing' is a take I have yet to hear about this
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May 25, 2017 04:39
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I wonder how long into Bush 2's first and second terms the thread had to be restarted. Everyone should be scared of Trump's rapport with Duterte. It's not like he's trying to get a foot in the door for future discussions on Duterte's drug war. It's basically an explicit approval of the tactics of extrajudicial murder and vigilantism to fight drug addiction.
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May 25, 2017 04:39
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axeil posted:It just seems odd to me that a state with one at-large district has a completely different dynamic from its Senate races. it's not that weird, people will vote for democrats they feel represent them. the democrat nom for president is always gonna be way, way left of the dem nominees for governor, senator and congressperson.
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May 25, 2017 04:40
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lol, these loving jokes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8LKqZcayDY
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May 25, 2017 04:41
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http://youtubedoubler.com/?video1=h...ame=aphrocarlin Sorry for stealing the doubler idea. I think this works in lieu of actual video footage. EDIT: Oh, and Daredevil spoilers.
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May 25, 2017 04:43
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Rigel posted:The cops don't make charging decisions. The local prosecutor in Bozeman will, and he's probably got to make a decision tomorrow morning now that the police have interviewed everyone. If I were the DA I would suddenly make a donation to Gianforte if s/he hadn't already has and then make a public statement if "shucks guys I have a conflict gunnahafta call in a special prosecutor!"
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May 25, 2017 04:44
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https://twitter.com/RealJamesWoods/status/867228536897187840
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May 25, 2017 04:46
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Jaxyon posted:Most ethnically diverse city is houston, actually. Sorry bro. Lol no. NYC and Toronto
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May 25, 2017 04:46
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Niton posted:Non-religious (well, less religious) rural america is definitely a demographic that the Dems should reach out more to. While they're not super-liberal, there's a lot of decent folk out there who definitely feel marginalized now that "their" party has turned into the same religious nutjobs they're terrified of. Not directly related, but fivethirtyeight had an article recently discussing a paper that claimed up to ~25% of the population could be atheist/areligious. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/way-more-americans-may-be-atheists-than-we-thought/ Apparently the study used some kind of procedure similar to the "unmatched count technique", where they ask respondents the number of yes answers on their questionnaire instead of gathering the answers directly. From wikipedia: quote:The participants of the survey are divided into two groups at random. One group (the control group) is given a few harmless questions, while the other group gets one additional question (hence the name "unmatched count"), the one about the property of interest. The respondents are to reveal only the number of "yes"-answers they have given. Since the interviewer does not know how they arrived at that number, it is safe to answer the awkward question truthfully. Due to the unmatched count of items, the number of people who answered "yes" to the awkward question can be mathematically deduced.
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May 25, 2017 04:47
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por que no los dos?
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May 25, 2017 04:47
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empty whippet box posted:'this seat means nothing' is a take I have yet to hear about this Oh no! We've lost one of our 47 seat majority. How ever will we continue to completely fail to govern without it? Losing the seat doesn't matter except to the narrative. If this was a senate seat, gently caress yeah, go to town, but this is a special election amidst a heavy republican majority in the house. The seat is going to be up again in 2018, which is the only point control of it will actually matter, and all the win now accomplishes is the benefit of incumbency which may or may not matter down the line. I'm not expecting republicans to act selflessly by changing course on healthcare, The goal was to put the fear of loving god into them by having them lose a seat they shouldn't be losing. The fact that they can rationalize this loss as "That dumb gently caress" means it will weigh less heavily when it comes time to vote on reconciliation. If you honestly don't believe that public opinion matters, then I assume you also feel the town hall barrage is pointless? Because public opinion and the risk to their seats was the only thing that kept these assholes from going to town on the ACA on day one.
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May 25, 2017 04:47
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Yes these are the two sides of the coin in the game of life
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May 25, 2017 04:48
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Agreed, Trump is a terrorist.
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