|
What is the best flav... you all know what this question is: This poll is closed. |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour |
|
907 | 49.92% |
| Theresa May Team (Conservative) |
|
48 | 2.64% |
| Liberal Democrats |
|
31 | 1.71% |
| UKIP |
|
13 | 0.72% |
| Plaid Cymru |
|
25 | 1.38% |
| Green |
|
22 | 1.21% |
| Scottish Socialist Party |
|
12 | 0.66% |
| Scottish Conservative Party |
|
1 | 0.06% |
| Scottish National Party |
|
59 | 3.25% |
| Some Kind of Irish Unionist |
|
4 | 0.22% |
| Alliance / Irish Nonsectarian |
|
3 | 0.17% |
| Some Kind of Irish Nationalist |
|
36 | 1.98% |
| Misc. Far Left Trots |
|
35 | 1.93% |
| Misc. Far Right Fash |
|
8 | 0.44% |
| Monster Raving Loony |
|
49 | 2.70% |
| Space Navies Party |
|
39 | 2.15% |
| Independent / Single Issue |
|
2 | 0.11% |
| Can't Vote |
|
188 | 10.35% |
| Won't Vote |
|
8 | 0.44% |
| Spoiled Ballot |
|
15 | 0.83% |
| Pissflaps |
|
312 | 17.17% |
| Total: | 1817 votes | ||
|
Angepain posted:Pretty much exactly a week now until we will probably have a good idea of precisely how hosed we actually are. I don't know how many more polls I can handle. I wasn't ready to have it laid out quite this starkly. gently caress. e; In 1925 Hitler published Volume 1 of Mein Kampf, and the world has never fully recovered from his far-right bollocks. Ms Adequate fucked around with this message at 01:37 on Jun 2, 2017 |
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 01:31
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 14, 2024 04:52 |
|
|
how did people describe overly disciplinarian campsites before mein kampf(sites)
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 01:45
|
|
|
history may never know
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 01:45
|
|
|
I believe hel-kamp was a common term by Boers. Or at least their wives and children.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 01:53
|
|
|
Pissflaps posted:Here's a somewhat more sober projection of the election result Is that a majority of 37? Still something of a bloody nose for May, and I'd have been glad of those numbers a month ago. Hope is a lie, so I'm trying to curb my enthusiasm for anything better. Pissflaps posted:I haven't had a single person knock on my door and beg for my vote so far. Disappointed. We're up to about 70% coverage in my local constituency as of a week ago, although I get the impression we're a reasonably well organised local party. Perhaps you're just in the unlucky rump for whom there isn't the time or resources. dex_sda posted:Honest question to you Pissflaps: having seen how enormous the momentum Corbyn with support from the PLP can achieve, I thought this was an interesting question (and answer), because I don't think we're seeing Corbyn with support from the PLP* in this campaign. With the exception of Miliband, I can't think of a single Labour heavy-hitter whose been actively supporting this national campaign - it's been either deafening silence (the vast majority) or unhelpful interventions from a minority - and of course, some continuing leaks. Am I missing something? Edit: *For PLP read "part of the PLP while not being an explicit Corbyn supporter". vv I have modified my definition accordingly.  But no, I wouldn't regard Diane Abbott as a big political hitter for the record. I guess as well as Joe Smith the average MP in the centre of the party, I'm more specifically referring to what the press might call 'Labour party grandees' who can get exposure in the media due to their public profile.
Prince John fucked around with this message at 02:04 on Jun 2, 2017 |
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 01:57
|
|
|
Does Diane Abbott not count as an establishment PLP big hitter?
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 01:58
|
|
|
jBrereton posted:Does Diane Abbott not count as an establishment PLP big hitter? Depends how you're defining 'establishment'. She was a junior minister for three years under Miliband, I guess, but compared to Hilary Benn, who was parked in the Cabinet and Shadiw Cabinet from 2003 onwards, she's a bit of an outsider who's firmly in Corbyn's very outsidery clique.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 02:04
|
|
|
I like DIane Abbott. I would vote for her as party leader. She had an afro.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 02:05
|
|
|
jBrereton posted:Does Diane Abbott not count as an establishment PLP big hitter? She's a big hitter?
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 02:30
|
|
|
Prince John posted:I thought this was an interesting question (and answer), because I don't think we're seeing Corbyn with support from the PLP* in this campaign. With the exception of Miliband, I can't think of a single Labour heavy-hitter whose been actively supporting this national campaign - it's been either deafening silence (the vast majority) or unhelpful interventions from a minority - and of course, some continuing leaks. Am I missing something? There's been a distinct lack of public appearances from what most of the media would regard as the big names of the Labour party. I know I've seen virtually nothing from people like Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Liz Kendall, Chuka Umunna, Stephen Kinnock etc. Even the less well known names like Dan Jarvis, Heidi Alexander or Jess Phillips have been notable absences. You can almost explain it by saying they're just back-bench MPs now, but the counter-argument is that never stopped them seeking publicity before. I think their sudden disappearance is all part of the plan to 'let Corbyn fail on his own' and 'own the election result'. Of course it seems to have backfired, since he's much more popular without one of those pricks showing up on Peston every week to contradict everything he's said.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 02:32
|
|
|
jess phillips had some really helpful comments in the new statesmen(i think) about how no one likes corbyn and her own laughable leadership ambitions at the start of the campaign. it's a shame the right wingers are even in the party tbh. even on the debate the other night he was being hit on obvious compromises he's made to them on immigration, which seems to be the hill they all want to die on, for some reason.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 02:48
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/870250544299954180 edit: Oh wait this is from earlier than the one above. Oh well
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 02:51
|
|
|
TomViolence posted:https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/870250544299954180 Cor, just imagine though 
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 02:54
|
|
|
Pissflaps posted:Here's a somewhat more sober projection of the election result they've just used a uniform national swing and ignored subnational polling in London and Wales though. They have Gower (Con Maj: 26) as a 7% chance of switching hands which is more ridiculous than even some of those YouGov projections.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 03:03
|
|
|
TomViolence posted:https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/870250544299954180 What's the black blob in, um, Reading or something?
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 03:10
|
|
|
Unkempt posted:What's the black blob in, um, Reading or something? Buckingham, it's Bercow.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 03:11
|
|
|
Not to be a jerk but isn't BritainElects basically a twitter feed that reposts poll results and keeps a rolling average? What model are these bold predictions arising from Also thanks for the extra  !Baron Corbyn posted:Buckingham, it's Bercow. Bercow has always been very powerful
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 03:14
|
|
|
baka kaba posted:Not to be a jerk but isn't BritainElects basically a twitter feed that reposts poll results and keeps a rolling average? What model are these bold predictions arising from plugging in that rolling average and doing a uniform national swing from it. As a model, it's terrible. YouGov's is pretty good as a model, it's just hard to get enough data to produce a sensible and accurate result for it.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 03:21
|
|
|
Baron Corbyn posted:plugging in that rolling average and doing a uniform national swing from it. As a model, it's terrible. YouGov's is pretty good as a model, it's just hard to get enough data to produce a sensible and accurate result for it. Not quite quote:Our model, combining historical data as well as national and regional polling, estimates the probability a party has at holding onto each seat. This forecast is theoretical and does not consider targeting. Regional variation and parliamentary by-election results are, however, accounted for.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 06:56
|
|
|
It makes me mad that the Tories ate up all of the UKIP vote, but the mildly social democratic / centrist Liberal Democrats continue to dick around and spoil things for Labour.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 07:02
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/ilesjazz/status/870259664449142785
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 07:13
|
|
|
What's this, the third relaunch in a campaign that has lasted just over a month? WTF? Josef bugman fucked around with this message at 07:58 on Jun 2, 2017 |
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 07:55
|
|
|
The Theresy Relaunches
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 08:20
|
|
|
How do you directly link to the video (if that is possible) on places that don't embed tweets? Or can you only link it?
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 08:20
|
|
|
I think the one thing we can be sure of is Theresa May will not be PM for long after this election. gently caress knows who in the Tory cabinet would be the last person standing after the inevitable knife fight though. Hammond?
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 08:34
|
|
|
Leadsom just for a laugh She probably couldn'ylt have handled this as badly as May did. Imagine that for a moment.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 08:36
|
|
|
I mean it might end up being Boris. Which would be endlessly horrifying.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 08:46
|
|
|
I honestly do not think David Cameron sees himself as done with political leadership and he might try and come back to lead the Tories in another election, maybe in 5 or 10 years. It is all too odd to me that Cameron is continuing to do minor PR events, disassociated with the current election, while his greatest partner in crime is busy trashing the current Tory leadership from his editorship. When you take into account that Cameron is still incredibly young for someone who has been PM (he is currently 50), it really isn't a long shot at all. I also believe he would have the internal party support if he came back post-Brexit. If the Tories fumble it on the 8th and May's credibility is ruined, I could see it happening.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 08:47
|
|
|
I hope some proper insider information about the Tory election campaign is published after the election.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 08:47
|
|
|
Josef bugman posted:I mean it might end up being Boris. Which would be endlessly horrifying. endlessly amusing for us abroad
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 08:47
|
|
|
Another Person posted:I honestly do not think David Cameron sees himself as done with political leadership and he might try and come back to lead the Tories in another election, maybe in 5 or 10 years. It is all too odd to me that Cameron is continuing to do minor PR events, disassociated with the current election, while his greatest partner in crime is busy trashing the current Tory leadership from his editorship. When you take into account that Cameron is still incredibly young for someone who has been PM (he is currently 50), it really isn't a long shot at all. I also believe he would have the internal party support if he came back post-Brexit. If the Tories fumble it on the 8th and May's credibility is ruined, I could see it happening. That's an interesting thought. And my feeling is he isn't especially disliked and, despite campaigning for Remain, he delivered Brexit. I could see it happening too.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 08:49
|
|
|
Josef bugman posted:I mean it might end up being Boris. Which would be endlessly horrifying. Trump and he would probably be great mates, the pair of cunts
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 08:50
|
|
|
Pissflaps posted:I hope some proper insider information about the Tory election campaign is published after the election. Same. I do not think this Tory manifesto was the result of May's desires, and I think the party is internally far more divided than they really let on. This manifesto looks to me like it was entirely created from a patchwork of political promises to key party members to secure support and unity. There is no way the Tories make the calculated decision to piss off their strongest sections of the electorate without having their hand forced into it.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 08:50
|
|
|
I thought we already had insider info on the dementia tax policy - it was thrown in at a late stage by May and one of her advisors without any real vetting due to her dictatorial style.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 08:54
|
|
|
I meant more stories about how people in the Tory camp are reacting to the polls, the labour campaign, a hostile press. Are there arguments? Is May deluding herself? Do they have their own reasons for thinking this way is best? That sort of stuff.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 08:57
|
|
|
im liking all these predictions showing my constituency flipping back to lib dem from tory. gently caress off james berry you miserable waste man
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 08:58
|
|
|
How badly hosed do we think the electoracte is going to be in a weeks time? On a scale of one to dead pig?
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 09:01
|
|
|
Pissflaps posted:I meant more stories about how people in the Tory camp are reacting to the polls, the labour campaign, a hostile press. Are there arguments? Is May deluding herself? Do they have their own reasons for thinking this way is best? That sort of stuff. reactions to her bottling all public events will be good
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 09:03
|
|
|
Pissflaps posted:That's an interesting thought. And my feeling is he isn't especially disliked and, despite campaigning for Remain, he delivered Brexit. I could see it happening too.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 09:07
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 14, 2024 04:52 |
|
|
I meant among Tories.
|
|
#
?
Jun 2, 2017 09:11
|
|