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What is the best flav... you all know what this question is: This poll is closed. |
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| Labour |
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907 | 49.92% |
| Theresa May Team (Conservative) |
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48 | 2.64% |
| Liberal Democrats |
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31 | 1.71% |
| UKIP |
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13 | 0.72% |
| Plaid Cymru |
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25 | 1.38% |
| Green |
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22 | 1.21% |
| Scottish Socialist Party |
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12 | 0.66% |
| Scottish Conservative Party |
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1 | 0.06% |
| Scottish National Party |
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59 | 3.25% |
| Some Kind of Irish Unionist |
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4 | 0.22% |
| Alliance / Irish Nonsectarian |
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3 | 0.17% |
| Some Kind of Irish Nationalist |
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36 | 1.98% |
| Misc. Far Left Trots |
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35 | 1.93% |
| Misc. Far Right Fash |
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8 | 0.44% |
| Monster Raving Loony |
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49 | 2.70% |
| Space Navies Party |
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39 | 2.15% |
| Independent / Single Issue |
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2 | 0.11% |
| Can't Vote |
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188 | 10.35% |
| Won't Vote |
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8 | 0.44% |
| Spoiled Ballot |
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15 | 0.83% |
| Pissflaps |
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312 | 17.17% |
| Total: | 1817 votes | ||
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Gonzo McFee posted:It's new, untested and as such more likely to fail. Pretty much everyone's weightings are new and untested.
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Jun 5, 2017 22:35
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Woah, someone call a nuclear technician, because someone's having a meltdown
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Jun 5, 2017 22:36
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Mr. Flunchy posted:Now got Thurs off work. Is there US style get people out to vote schemes in this country? Feel like I want to be haranguing people into the booth. Young people anyway. There absolutely is and it's the the most important day to get volunteers out there. Talk to your local Labour group.
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Jun 5, 2017 22:38
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Gonzo McFee posted:
It's not that new. http://andrewgelman.com/2017/06/01/u-k-news-article-congratulates-yougov-using-modern-methods-polling-inference/ posted:MRP is not so new—our first paper on the method (“Poststratification into many categories using hierarchical logistic regression,” with Tom Little) was published 20 years ago.
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Jun 5, 2017 22:40
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jabby posted:Pretty much everyone's weightings are new and untested. Yes but the other ones are not horse poo poo because they mostly have a larger Tory lead.
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Jun 5, 2017 22:40
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MrL_JaKiri posted:Going back a few days (I've been away) but who was the guy who thought that Wargames was pro-nuclear weapons again It was me, and I was painfully misinterpreted because it was more me thinking of the first popular culture item to do with MAD at the time - tic tac toe and all that. I made no comment on whether the film was pro or anti!
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Jun 5, 2017 22:41
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Noxville posted:Yes but the other ones are not horse poo poo because they mostly have a larger Tory lead. I don't understand how people can't tell the difference between a poll of voting intention and an election result model.
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Jun 5, 2017 22:42
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Pissflaps posted:Out of interest, does Corbyn support PR? He's in favour of the idea of a more proportional voting system, but he also really really really likes that everyone is an elected representative with a link to a constituency and who is directly representing a specific and identifiable group of voters, and doesn't want to lose that; deeply unsurprising when you consider that he has a bulletproof personal majority in large part because he's directly helped a shitload of people via his surgeries over the last 30 years, and people remember that. Somewhere out there there's a video of him telling a leadership hustings about a trip to the Netherlands where he met MPs who were elected via a national party list and spent all their time on party business; they had absolutely no reason to ever have contact with, or directly help out, ordinary people.
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Jun 5, 2017 22:42
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Pissflaps posted:Because polling is based on taking a sample of the public, asking them some questions. then applying appropriate weightings to reach a conclusion about the opinions of the population as a whole, whereas their model is: The model that drives the seat projections at YG is different but if anything more rigorous I think than simple reweighting (which doesn't incorporate implicit uncertainty based on your model that you're using to reweight) because it provides confidence intervals (which are very very large). Which I mean, in a sense I agree with you, because the YG results have *huge* uncertainty, including a pretty big Tory win. That's the model being good, not bad, though.
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Jun 5, 2017 22:44
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waffle posted:Every poll has an underlying model though. Whether it's a model of expected demographics of the electorate at-large, or a model of expected turnout (which are what are applied to polling data), nobody shows data without modifying based on some model (lol if you do I guess you actually get a Labour lead). The YouGov model is not a poll.
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Jun 5, 2017 22:45
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Sure is great to be directly represented by someone I didn't vote for and who wants the opposite of what I want
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Jun 5, 2017 22:46
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Trin Tragula posted:He's in favour of the idea of a more proportional voting system, but he also really really really likes that everyone is an elected representative with a link to a constituency and who is directly representing a specific and identifiable group of voters, and doesn't want to lose that; deeply unsurprising when you consider that he has a bulletproof personal majority in large part because he's directly helped a shitload of people via his surgeries over the last 30 years, and people remember that. Somewhere out there there's a video of him telling a leadership hustings about a trip to the Netherlands where he met MPs who were elected via a national party list and spent all their time on party business; they had absolutely no reason to ever have contact with, or directly help out, ordinary people. Hm. He might like STV then, since, while a bit less local, it still keeps local representatives while being more proportional and representative. The Lib Dems are officially supporting STV, on that tangent, right? I think that's what that one quiz told me when I selected the STV option for it. That kind of surprised me.
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Jun 5, 2017 22:48
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Pissflaps posted:The YouGov model is not a poll. So they're more similar than you're saying, and because the YG model is using the combination of a lot of surveys while a single poll result is reflecting a single survey, I suspect YG actually has a much larger sample size than any single poll. Again the part of the YG model that never gets mentioned is the huge uncertainty though.
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Jun 5, 2017 22:49
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PIGS BREXIT posted:Sure is great to be directly represented by someone I didn't vote for and who wants the opposite of what I want pissflaps4mp
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Jun 5, 2017 22:50
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waffle posted:The YouGov model provides seat predictions given survey data and a model that links the survey data and seat predictions. On the other hand, polls provide proportions of people expected to vote for each party given survey data and a model that links survey data and those proportions of people. So they're more similar than you're saying, and because the YG model is using the combination of a lot of surveys while a single poll result is reflecting a single survey, I suspect YG actually has a much larger sample size than any single poll. https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/yougov-election-model-q/ quote:Is this a poll? It is not a poll.
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Jun 5, 2017 22:51
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I ain't sayin it's a poll dawg, i'm saying polls are the results of models too. yougov is survey data + model = seat projections, while polls are survey data + model = % people voting con/lab/etc
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Jun 5, 2017 22:52
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gt7lWRtfve8
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Jun 5, 2017 22:53
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Pissflaps posted:It is not a poll. This would be an interesting argument if you actually believed the polls either.
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Jun 5, 2017 22:53
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Imagine being Pissflaps. Hoping desperately that Yougov is wrong so he can be smug on the internet.
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Jun 5, 2017 22:54
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jabby posted:This would be an interesting argument if you actually believed the polls either. As ever, I believe the polls are a snapshot of public opinion. Gonzo McFee posted:Imagine being Pissflaps. Hoping desperately that Yougov is wrong so he can be smug on the internet. I want to be wrong. I want a Labour government.
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Jun 5, 2017 22:54
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Jun 5, 2017 22:55
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Pissflaps posted:Out of interest, does Corbyn support PR? He hasn't in the past, or ever publicly u-turned on that. But I bet you knew that when you asked
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Jun 5, 2017 22:56
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Its already been pointed out that Ashcroft is using an mrp model as well rather than constituency by constituency polling and he's got the Tories at a 60 seat majority - falling to 40-59 based on self-reported likelihood to vote
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Jun 5, 2017 22:57
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Good old UKIP, labelling Islam as an evil cult
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Jun 5, 2017 22:59
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Watch this. https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/871831501591138305
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Jun 5, 2017 22:59
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kustomkarkommando posted:Its already been pointed out that Ashcroft is using an mrp model as well rather than constituency by constituency polling and he's got the Tories at a 60 seat majority - falling to 40-59 based on self-reported likelihood to vote My personal modelling shows an 80 seat Tory majority.
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Jun 5, 2017 22:59
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Oberleutnant posted:I'm having to think about this right now as my gf wants me to move to Barcelona with her in the autumn, and on the one hand it would be amazing, but on the other hand the only Spanish I know is how to tell her I love her. Half considering taking an OU course in IT while working shity jobs for a couple years and just basically starting over, but it's a scary prospect. This is what I'm doing but not in Spain. Do it. Just loving do it.
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Jun 5, 2017 23:00
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I see no-one has commented on Sir Tim NicebutLibDem's performance on QT tonight https://twitter.com/waitingforsam/status/871799085036187648
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Jun 5, 2017 23:00
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Pissflaps posted:My personal modelling shows an 80 seat Tory majority. Ah is that based on a survey of your gut or yer missus
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Jun 5, 2017 23:01
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Trin Tragula posted:He's in favour of the idea of a more proportional voting system, but he also really really really likes that everyone is an elected representative with a link to a constituency and who is directly representing a specific and identifiable group of voters, and doesn't want to lose that; deeply unsurprising when you consider that he has a bulletproof personal majority in large part because he's directly helped a shitload of people via his surgeries over the last 30 years, and people remember that. Somewhere out there there's a video of him telling a leadership hustings about a trip to the Netherlands where he met MPs who were elected via a national party list and spent all their time on party business; they had absolutely no reason to ever have contact with, or directly help out, ordinary people. Here you go Flaps, I think this is the video. It should skip to the PR bit, if not, jump to 2 minutes in. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L02gfCJTdEk&t=121s Prince John fucked around with this message at 23:08 on Jun 5, 2017 |
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Jun 5, 2017 23:03
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baka kaba posted:Get on Duolingo, it's v good. Plus they have a flirting section where all the comments are 'what the hell' so at least you can make her laugh A full set of the statistics. Harassment up 185% on average, as much as 700% in some areas, and already more cases in Q1-3 2016/17 than in 2015/16. Rape and sexual offences have more than doubled. Strong and loving stable.
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Jun 5, 2017 23:05
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kustomkarkommando posted:Ah is that based on a survey of your gut or yer missus The missus left him months ago. Any time he's not posting he's doing this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RkuWrmxN7hg (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 5, 2017 23:05
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Did Diane Abbott gently caress it again?
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Jun 5, 2017 23:07
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I hope you can work things out with your wife pissflaps
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Jun 5, 2017 23:07
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Everything about this guy is too perfect. "In October 2013 he was awarded a knighthood for political service." Greg Knight is actually a knight.  From the quality of that video I reckon he'd do a good job of selling me a second-hand car as well.
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Jun 5, 2017 23:09
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haakman posted:Did Diane Abbott gently caress it again? I think Jezza's a bit busy for that rn
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Jun 5, 2017 23:10
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Pissflaps posted:As ever, I believe the polls are a snapshot of public opinion. If Corbyn loses by a slim margin never mind making excuses, I'm actively blaming people like you.
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Jun 5, 2017 23:11
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https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/871804633303404545
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Jun 5, 2017 23:11
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PIGS BREXIT posted:Sure is great to be directly represented by someone I didn't vote for and who wants the opposite of what I want Interesting thing - if you look for them, and you do have to make an effort to find them, there are actually plenty of stories of e.g. lifelong Labour voters in a safe Tory seat (and vice versa) with a conscientious backbencher, who've discovered that when they've had personal problems, their Tory MP has taken up their case and really gone to bat for them and got their problem sorted out, and never shown any interest in their personal political views either. There's a lot of hard-working backbench MPs out there who do much more for ordinary people than just showing up to Parliament and walking through the lobby as directed by the whips, because they know it's got by far the best chance of anything they do when it comes to securing someone's vote.
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Jun 5, 2017 23:12
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Like, you can criticise a model if you have something specific to say, that's valid, but saying a model is wrong and/or horseshit just because it's a model doesn't make any sense and isn't a substantial criticism. "model" just means a theory on the underlying processes of how your data has come about that you can use for making conclusions and predictions. Weighting is a model. Assuming the 1,000 people you polled reflect the population as a whole to a predictable level of accuracy is a model.
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Jun 5, 2017 23:13
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