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Right, but there's no set timetable for that and the market closes June 30th. My understanding is she could certainly delay it a few weeks, and I'm not willing to bet on the arcane inner workings of UK party politics for that kind of return. If it were in two months or something that'd be a different story.
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Jun 9, 2017 04:25
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I think she steps down in the morning or not at all.
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Jun 9, 2017 04:42
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There's also this market, which has no deadline and May is only 65c there https://www.predictit.org/Market/3077/Who-will-be-the-next-UK-party-leader-to-leave
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Jun 9, 2017 05:28
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bawfuls posted:Right, but there's no set timetable for that and the market closes June 30th. My understanding is she could certainly delay it a few weeks, and I'm not willing to bet on the arcane inner workings of UK party politics for that kind of return. OOPS. Probably should have cashed in last night, but w the UK system who knows this could easily bump back up on speculation, gossip, or the conservative party knives could come out any time.
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Jun 9, 2017 15:03
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Vishass posted:or the conservative party knives could come out any time. This seems to be happening now, and the price will reflect that even if she ends up making it to the end of the month.
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Jun 11, 2017 15:17
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Was able to liquidate those Georgia turnout shares and stuff them all into Puerto Rico statehood. The B329 Conservative thing is ancient history. Ossoff No is still selling cheap.
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Jun 11, 2017 20:28
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Merlot Brougham posted:Was able to liquidate those Georgia turnout shares and stuff them all into Puerto Rico statehood. Besides GA constantly disappointing me, is the logic that the market will get nervous and drive them both to 50 come election day?
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Jun 12, 2017 16:29
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Vishass posted:Besides GA constantly disappointing me, is the logic that the market will get nervous and drive them both to 50 come election day? Polls today seem to indicate yes to both of the above.
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Jun 13, 2017 16:57
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Vishass posted:Besides GA constantly disappointing me, is the logic that the market will get nervous and drive them both to 50 come election day? Yep. 
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Jun 20, 2017 03:14
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It's looking like Handel might have some momentum going into election day, polls have slowly moved in her direction over the last couple weeks. Market sitting at 50-50 though, no way I would buy in on either side without additional information.
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Jun 20, 2017 03:19
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Polls says Ossoff/Handel is a coin flip at this point. If the market remains open, might be able to make an educated guess based off of Ossoff's early vote numbers. I don't have the stomach for that, though. 50% vote is getting pumped based off some big exaggerations about the weather here today.
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Jun 20, 2017 18:00
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I bought a lot real cheap in this one and my plan almost across the board is to pull out right as results start coming in and take the safe, moderate gains. (safe moderate just like Ossoff am i right folks heyo)
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Jun 20, 2017 22:09
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I bet on southern Dems failing to show the gently caress up and won.
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Jun 21, 2017 03:27
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theres a will theres moe posted:I bet on southern Dems failing to show the gently caress up and won. hope you got ossoff no when it was like 30 cents
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Jun 21, 2017 03:30
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Vox Nihili posted:hope you got ossoff no when it was like 30 cents I got it at 80 but it still paid for dinner.
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Jun 21, 2017 03:31
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A good night over here. See my posts about cheap ossoff no. I listened to myself Some good pickups on action in the MOV markets also. E: Did anyone else catch The Atlanta Constution Journal used the predictit market in their analysis on the website election coverage? Merlot Brougham has issued a correction as of 04:07 on Jun 21, 2017 |
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Jun 21, 2017 03:56
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Hit the G 6 margin of victory had 0-1, 3-4 and 4-5. Made 15 profit on 9 bet.
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Jun 21, 2017 11:36
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Merlot Brougham posted:A good night over here. See my posts about cheap ossoff no. I listened to myself I bought no at 30 on your advice and bailed at 50. I was basically all in on the plus 50 vote and nearly doubled my bank. Would have been awesome if I was working with more than like 20 bucks.
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Jun 21, 2017 15:50
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Vishass posted:
Now you are, hopefully.
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Jun 21, 2017 18:04
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Dumped all my Handel shares for a $12 gain because I got spooked. 
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Jun 21, 2017 19:36
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AceRimmer posted:Dumped all my Handel shares for a $12 gain because I got spooked. Nobody's ever gone broke turning a profit.
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Jun 21, 2017 19:43
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Merlot Brougham posted:Now you are, hopefully. $40 if I don't nickel and dime myself on tweet markets looking for the next "sure" thing.
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Jun 22, 2017 16:36
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Vishass posted:$40 if I don't nickel and dime myself on tweet markets looking for the next "sure" thing. I feel like the tweet markets are for addicts.
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Jun 22, 2017 16:59
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Jedi Knight Luigi posted:I feel like the tweet markets are for addicts. yeah, given the amount of time you need to babysit those markets I would say that's fairly accurate. edit: also I don't mean the tweet markets contain sure things. That way is madness (besides Trump and Pence rarely land on B0 for tweets in a week)
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Jun 22, 2017 17:11
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Vishass posted:yeah, given the amount of time you need to babysit those markets I would say that's fairly accurate. Dont worry about tweets when theres plenty of good action waiting in the Mongolian election.
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Jun 22, 2017 19:49
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Maybe I'm a pessimist, but this seems like a loving steal right now: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/6993/Will-the-Senate-pass-a-health-care-bill-by-June-30#data There are currently only 4 "no" holdouts in the Senate. To pass it they need to "flip" two of those. This few holdouts means it's all posturing, and 2-3 will "cave" when the bill is given minor changes to meet their demands.
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Jun 22, 2017 23:53
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bawfuls posted:Maybe I'm a pessimist, but this seems like a loving steal right now: By June 30?
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Jun 23, 2017 01:46
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They've wanted to rush this through as fast as possible the whole time. I'm convinced the current holdouts are all planned kabuki and it'll happen quickly to avoid real opposition building up any steam. (But when I posted that it was under 20c)
bawfuls has issued a correction as of 03:25 on Jun 23, 2017 |
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Jun 23, 2017 03:23
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bawfuls posted:They've wanted to rush this through as fast as possible the whole time. I'm convinced the current holdouts are all planned kabuki and it'll happen quickly to avoid real opposition building up any steam. (But when I posted that it was under 20c) I'm just hoping Pence tweets one more time before noon tomorrow.
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Jun 23, 2017 04:04
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bawfuls posted:Maybe I'm a pessimist, but this seems like a loving steal right now: I bought in so low I've already doubled my small investment but after seeing how they did the House this feels like a retread and they know it's passing.
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Jun 23, 2017 04:14
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Mike Pence has an early flight tomorrow to Colorado with nothing better to do than tweet. He's currently sitting at 84 tweets. You could buy No in this market for 74 cents a few minutes ago: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/6938/Will-%40vp-post-80-84-tweets-from-noon-June-16-to-noon-June-23 edit: Just put all of my liquidity into no Pence tweets 80-84 by noon tomorrow. Averaging 80 cents now after buying a bunch earlier in the 50s and flipping them. 
Merlot Brougham has issued a correction as of 05:57 on Jun 23, 2017 |
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Jun 23, 2017 04:33
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Merlot Brougham posted:Mike Pence has an early flight tomorrow to Colorado with nothing better to do than tweet. He's currently sitting at 84 tweets. Anyone know any examples of the money on this site getting it majorly wrong?
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Jun 23, 2017 06:38
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LolitaSama posted:Anyone know any examples of the money on this site getting it majorly wrong? Biden Run springs to mind. I've seen markets flip 2, 3, or even 4 times before conclusion with heavy trading on each step. I haven't played in a few months, though, but I doubt things have changed. Note that the long-term players in the tweet markets have enormous spreadsheets and homemade algorithms at this point, and can A) tell you the odds of a tweet on a Tuesday afternoon and B) instantly trade when a tweet is made thanks to software they have set up.
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Jun 23, 2017 06:57
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LolitaSama posted:Anyone know any examples of the money on this site getting it majorly wrong? pretty much constantly. Most obvious being hillary clinton last november. But general habit is the site gets overly certain all the time.
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Jun 23, 2017 16:46
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Merlot Brougham posted:By June 30? I bought some cheap yes because it feels undervalued. Senate is not in session the following week, and that's a whole week for the lovely unsigned bill story to percolate. I think (and the health care and trump threads) that there's a real good chance mitch will ram it through next week. death is certain and all that jazz.
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Jun 23, 2017 17:14
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I think regularly 10 cent bets pay off. They always write the rules to be confusing and with some dumb catch 22 that screws bettors.
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Jun 23, 2017 18:02
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No on SCOTUS retirement is a great bet iyam, should collapse Monday after AMK doesn't retire
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Jun 24, 2017 17:32
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Arkane posted:No on SCOTUS retirement is a great bet iyam, should collapse Monday after AMK doesn't retire do you have inside info on this one?
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Jun 24, 2017 23:54
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I assume he's going by the fact that Kennedy has hired the usual four clerks for the next term instead of one. Apparently it's typical for justices anticipating retirement to only hire one clerk for the next term. That's what twitter tells me anyway.
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Jun 25, 2017 00:08
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Vox Nihili posted:do you have inside info on this one? Just the regular ol info that has been out there for months
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Jun 25, 2017 03:24
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