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sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Thelonius Van Funk posted:

I was offered a trade in my dynasty and it seems super lovely for me.
I give: Greg Olsen, Jordy and my 2018 first rounder
I get: Njoku, Kenneth Dixon, his 2018 first rounder and 2nd rounder.
Even if I'm trying to get some more youth in my squad this is not even close to a good deal, right?

It's not great, but I wouldn't be insulted or anything. Olsen and Njoku is about a wash (if you're selling Olsen, this might be your last chance to get much), but Jordy is still worth a 1st, and Dixon + 2nd isn't really great. If you like Dixon and Njoku and do want to get younger, dropping your 1st from the deal makes it reasonable for both sides.

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RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

Butter Hole posted:

Who should i keep at the bottom of my bench:
Robbie Anderson
Kennie Golladay
Marlon Mack

I know that it's just a crapshoot but I have nothing better to do in the preseason!

Anderson

Drunk Nerds
Jan 25, 2011

Just close your eyes
Fun Shoe
But if he chooses Golladay, his team name can be "Odell, Goodell, Golladay, Ginn."

Checkmate, Robbie Andersonists

Ches Neckbeard
Dec 3, 2005

You're all garbage, back up the truck BACK IT UP!

Thelonius Van Funk posted:

I was offered a trade in my dynasty and it seems super lovely for me.
I give: Greg Olsen, Jordy and my 2018 first rounder
I get: Njoku, Kenneth Dixon, his 2018 first rounder and 2nd rounder.
Even if I'm trying to get some more youth in my squad this is not even close to a good deal, right?

Njoku has a rookie qb, isn't his perferred option and isn't the starter (yet it'll be late season at the earliest imo).

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Ches Neckbeard posted:

Njoku has a rookie qb

Don't TEs usually get a lot of garbage receptions from being the safety valve for rookie QBs though? Or is that a fantasy myth?

thrawn527
Mar 27, 2004

Thrawn/Pellaeon
Studying the art of terrorists
To keep you safe

IcePhoenix posted:

Don't TEs usually get a lot of garbage receptions from being the safety valve for rookie QBs though? Or is that a fantasy myth?

I've always found TEs hard to nail down. I know years ago, Tony Gonzalez would always do better when the Falcons were losing a close game, because a non-rookie Matt Ryan would use him as a safety valve when he was getting slammed. I'd have massive points from him resulting from close wins or close losses for Atlanta.

89
Feb 24, 2006

#worldchamps
Alternate strategy:

Jordy Nelson is the safest 1st round pick you can make.

1,200+ yards, 12+ TDs guaranteed.

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

As safe as a player who missed a season tearing an ACL can be I suppose.

89
Feb 24, 2006

#worldchamps

kiimo posted:

As safe as a player who missed a season tearing an ACL can be I suppose.

Which can be any player in the NFL. I'm not sure if ACL's should count against players anymore when making projections. Especially after AP's season after his ACL injury (2,097 yards, 12 TDs), Maclin's (1,318 yards, 10 TDs), Jordy's (1,257 yards, 14 TDs), etc

Jordy Nelson's past few years:

2016: 1,257 yards, 14 TDs
2015: injured
2014: 1,519 yards, 13 TDs
2013: 1,314 yards, 8 TDs
2012: 745 yards, 7 TDs
2011: 1,263 yards, 15 TDs

I mean :shrug:

89 fucked around with this message at 20:09 on Aug 30, 2017

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

Honestly I expected to find more injury history than I did when I looked it up.

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006
No one's ever been burned drafting 32 year old players. The definition of safety.

89
Feb 24, 2006

#worldchamps
I just don't see Jordy falling off hardly after the consistent production he's put out. Will he hit 1,500 yards again this year? Perhaps not that much. But, 1,200? Definitely. 10 TDs? Aaron Rodgers is gonna throw 40 TDs, so yes.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

89 posted:

Alternate strategy:

Jordy Nelson is the safest 1st round pick you can make.

1,200+ yards, 12+ TDs guaranteed.

Sure, except we're talking a dynasty league, so anyone owning Jordy (and Olsen) needs to start making a hard decision about when to get out. Calvin Johnson was going as a late 1st in start ups in 2015, ask any of his owners how they feel about drafting him there now. Edelman's value may have just tanked for good, when you likely could've gotten a late 1st round rookie pick out of someone a week ago. As long as you're not giving them away for peanuts, it's always going to be better to sell for good value a year too early than hold on a year too long.

89
Feb 24, 2006

#worldchamps

RVProfootballer posted:

Sure, except we're talking a dynasty league, so anyone owning Jordy (and Olsen) needs to start making a hard decision about when to get out. Calvin Johnson was going as a late 1st in start ups in 2015, ask any of his owners how they feel about drafting him there now. Edelman's value may have just tanked for good, when you likely could've gotten a late 1st round rookie pick out of someone a week ago. As long as you're not giving them away for peanuts, it's always going to be better to sell for good value a year too early than hold on a year too long.

Oh, my bad. I was just talking redraft.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

89 posted:

Oh, my bad. I was just talking redraft.

No worries, from what you said I figured you were talking redraft, just wanted to make sure we were all on the same page about the context!

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Dynasty is always tough because the devil is in the details. What does it cost you, if anything, to hold players? Do they have salaries with a salary cap? Are those draft picks for rookies only, or also free agent vets? Do you have accelerating salaries? How deep is your bench? Do you have taxi squads for rookie stashes? Etc.

And the killer question: are you gunning for a title this year, or doing a rebuild, or you're not sure?

I don't like that trade as it stands, but the above details could significantly alter the calculation.

Kingtheninja
Jul 29, 2004

"You're the best looking guy here."
Who are some good backup rb's to keep an eye out for in later rounds? I'm not good at picking out the replacement guys.

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

How do people feel about Greg Olsen this year, at age 32? Is he still a top 5 TE?

I drafted him mainly based off name recognition in my 0.5 ppr league, and am wondering if I should try to trade him or just stick with him. I could probably move him based off name recognition alone.

My roster:


Free Agent TE's:

RCarr fucked around with this message at 20:46 on Aug 30, 2017

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

Kingtheninja posted:

Who are some good backup rb's to keep an eye out for in later rounds? I'm not good at picking out the replacement guys.

Kamara
Coleman

Thelonius Van Funk
Apr 7, 2007
Oh boy
It's a non-salary dynasty league with 30 roster spots total, 12 teams. The draft is rookies and free agents but with the really deep benches there's usually only two or three worthwhile FAs in the draft. I am trying to rebuild since I have some aging pieces; Shady, Olsen, Nelson, DeSean but I already have three first rounders for 2018 so it's not like I'm aching to sell off as soon as possible.

I figured I would get the responses I got here but I just couldn't even see why he would offer this trade to me that I had to check if I was missing something obvious.

I countered with Olsen and Nelson for Dixon, Njoku, and his two 2018 picks which I am at least fine with. It's a strong draft coming up especially with this being a 2QB league.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Thelonius Van Funk posted:

I countered with Olsen and Nelson for Dixon, Njoku, and his two 2018 picks which I am at least fine with. It's a strong draft coming up especially with this being a 2QB league.

In a 2 QB league, rookie picks are boosted in value by a bit, so that I think that's a bit of an overpay if the guy accepts it, but agreed that it'd be nice for you. If they counter with something less, I'd go back with just removing Dixon from what you offered. Owning most of the 1st round can be really nice, and let you make draft day deals with people suffering sever rookie fever.

coronaball
Feb 6, 2005

You're finished, pork-o-nazi!
Will the Beersheet update be run today? I have a custom request that is very unique and dumb.

Ches Neckbeard
Dec 3, 2005

You're all garbage, back up the truck BACK IT UP!

IcePhoenix posted:

Don't TEs usually get a lot of garbage receptions from being the safety valve for rookie QBs though? Or is that a fantasy myth?

A veteran TE sometimes sort of. It's highly variable. Njoku has questionable hands from what we've seen (lol preseason). People are betting that he'll certainly beat out Devalve next year but he's all of 20 right now, and is a noted elite traits still growing guy. He'd be a good stash but wouldn't count on him this year.

Teemu Pokemon
Jun 19, 2004

To sign them is my real test

With full no movement clause
The guy that is really going to benefit from Jordy getting healthy is Cobb. With the emergence of Adams on the outside, he's going ro slide back into the slot. He has historically abused nickel corners. Dude is going to be an ADP sleeper because everyone is drafting him based on what he's done as an outside WR over various points during the last 3 years, completely ignoring that he's a completely different WR working from the inside. I'm willing to go on hot take record that he's going to outscore pretty much every one of the WRs going a round before him, and probably everyone going after him


kiimo posted:

As safe as a player who missed a season tearing an ACL can be I suppose.

I want so desperately to be petty and pull up charleschat from last year right now

Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 23:01 on Aug 30, 2017

Jota
May 6, 2003

uga-booga uga-booga

coronaball posted:

Will the Beersheet update be run today? I have a custom request that is very unique and dumb.

New ones are up now it looks like

Matt Zerella
Oct 7, 2002

Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)

Teemu Pokemon posted:

The guy that is really going to benefit from Jordy getting healthy is Cobb. With the emergence of Adams on the outside, he's going ro slide back into the slot. He has historically abused nickel corners. Dude is going to be an ADP sleeper because everyone is drafting him based on what he's done as an outside WR over various points during the last 3 years, completely ignoring that he's a completely different WR working from the inside. I'm willing to go on hot take record that he's going to outscore pretty much every one of the WRs going a round before him, and probably everyone going after him

Doing the dril tweet as my team name if I get him.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/6x2j47/beersheets_20170830_rip_acl_edition/

BeerSheets!

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Teemu Pokemon posted:

The guy that is really going to benefit from Jordy getting healthy is Cobb. With the emergence of Adams on the outside, he's going ro slide back into the slot. He has historically abused nickel corners. Dude is going to be an ADP sleeper because everyone is drafting him based on what he's done as an outside WR over various points during the last 3 years, completely ignoring that he's a completely different WR working from the inside. I'm willing to go on hot take record that he's going to outscore pretty much every one of the WRs going a round before him, and probably everyone going after him

I haven't paid attention, what guys are going like 1-2 rounds ahead of him?

Referee
Aug 25, 2004

"Winning is great, sure, but if you are really going to do something in life, the secret is learning how to lose. Nobody goes undefeated all the time. If you can pick up after a crushing defeat, and go on to win again, you are going to be a champion someday."
(Wilma Rudolph)


You are an amazing human being. Thank you for this service :911:

coronaball
Feb 6, 2005

You're finished, pork-o-nazi!

It appears my custom league didn't get run, probably because I submitted the form last night. Any hope for me? My draft is tonight. I'll make a donation!

SouthShoreSamurai
Apr 28, 2009

It is a tale,
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.


Fun Shoe

Can you (or anyone) delve into a little bit of what the $DV metric is? What is it that I'm looking at, there.

paternity suitor
Aug 2, 2016

Ayudo posted:

No one's ever been burned drafting 32 year old players. The definition of safety.

Read "Jordy Nelson is a safe pick" and immediately wanted to respond with this. I think people forget he's as old as he is because he broke out late.

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
hosed up the old website so here's a new one.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

coronaball posted:

It appears my custom league didn't get run, probably because I submitted the form last night. Any hope for me? My draft is tonight. I'll make a donation!

Check here in a bit. No guarantees.

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/wfv9zeu27u7kul8/AAD5bV_MLf44CmOLRcIRXWrya?dl=0

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

SouthShoreSamurai posted:

Can you (or anyone) delve into a little bit of what the $DV metric is? What is it that I'm looking at, there.

Standard deviation of auction values.

SouthShoreSamurai
Apr 28, 2009

It is a tale,
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.


Fun Shoe
Ah, so like the +/- of the difference they went for?

Aaron Rodgers is at $49 with a $DV of $30. That means he went for anywhere from $34 to $64?

Drunk Nerds
Jan 25, 2011

Just close your eyes
Fun Shoe

RCarr posted:

How do people feel about Greg Olsen this year, at age 32? Is he still a top 5 TE?


Don't worry at all. He's been consistent for a long time. #3 TE on most rankings (including mine)

Derpies
Mar 11, 2014

by sebmojo
Marshall Hyde or Pryor as a keeper? 12 man PPR and I lose the keeper pick based on ADP.

ShakeZula
Jun 17, 2003

Nobody move and nobody gets hurt.

Looking for some advice on a trade proposed to me in a Yahoo PPR league
I give: Aaron Rodgers
I get: Cam Newton, Jarvis Landry

I'm leaning toward taking it. For context my other QB is Kirk Cousins, and my other WRs are Dez, Alshon, Jamison Crowder, Willie Snead, and Eric Decker. Thoughts?

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Drunk Nerds
Jan 25, 2011

Just close your eyes
Fun Shoe

ShakeZula posted:

Looking for some advice on a trade proposed to me in a Yahoo PPR league
I give: Aaron Rodgers
I get: Cam Newton, Jarvis Landry

I'm leaning toward taking it. For context my other QB is Kirk Cousins, and my other WRs are Dez, Alshon, Jamison Crowder, Willie Snead, and Eric Decker. Thoughts?

No.

Counteroffer with Rodgers for guys you can actually use.

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