CommieGIR posted:

https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status...r%3D3128%23pti9

That's the head NOAA Hurricane scientist.

Jaguars! posted:

On a more mundane note, turns out that the finance minister of NZ wasn't very good at economics.

It's all starting to add up and the fall of the current government and a shift leftward is starting to look reasonably likely.

Just thought you might like to know.

FAUXTON posted:

trogdon the storminator

CommieGIR posted:

https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status...r%3D3128%23pti9

That's the head NOAA Hurricane scientist.

cowboy elvis posted:

Not a single word about mountains.

CommieGIR posted:

https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status...r%3D3128%23pti9

That's the head NOAA Hurricane scientist.

Casimir Radon posted:

I hope Donnie keeps screaming about his wall while thousands of people who voted for him end up homeless due to storms and botched federal response. Of course they're probably stupid and xenophobic enough for that to continue working on them. The Mexicans surely want to come up here to steal the rubble that used to be your house out from under your butt.

Kawasaki Nun posted:

I want off mother nature's wild ride

CommieGIR posted:

Its as big as the state of Ohio. Its not a tornado, mountains are going to be practically invisible to it. You are the only one pushing this, every meteorological service is saying it will have NO problem crossing the mountains. Its going to hit those insignificant mountains, and suck up warm water from the other side of them.

Hurricanes are a HIGH level system, reaching up to 50,000 feet. You've mixed up tornadoes and hurricanes.

NOAA, NWS, and everyone else says be worried. You are the only one saying this. Thank God Euro and all those others have you to override their models and predictions.

For example: When Hurricane Morakot crossed the Taiwanese mountains, it went from 92 MPH to 46, but Taiwains highest peak is 12,900 feet. Cuba's highest mountain is 6,500 feet.

That's not going to put a dent in Irma's near 200 MPH winds.

CommieGIR posted:

https://twitter.com/TTrogdon/status...r%3D3128%23pti9

That's the head NOAA Hurricane scientist.

Genocide Tendency posted:

Genocide Tendency posted:

From the NHC's very own glossary:

Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).


Tropical Cyclones are a warm core low level feature.

If you had any loving clue how they work, you would understand this. But you don't.

Mountains disrupt the low level circulation and block the intake mechanism. Tropical cyclones operate on an intake at the surface around a surface low pressure system. It vents through the top of the storm. Looks and works like this:




And since I feel like piling on....

Google history of storms that have ran across those islands. Hurricane David for example:



David is a prime example of what happens when a low level circulation runs across mountains. It gets ripped the gently caress apart.

Oh hey. The loving Weather Channel did a story on 7 storms besides Erika that were ripped apart by Hispaniola alone....


Lets take a look at those mountains...

Cuba: Piqo Turquino - 6,476ft.

Before Irma reaches the vicinity of Cuba if it doesn't turn north and gets out of range....
Puerto Rico: Cerro de Punta - 4,390
Hispaniola: Pico Duarte - 10,164

The 5 tallest peeks are on the island of Hispaniola. All over 7400 feet. Which, as history has shown, is tall enough to disrupt the low level center of circulation and intake mechanics.

Here is a bigger list.


Oh hey.. Lets talk about those models. The GFS, which is a traditionally well regarded model spent the last 3 runs shifting east. So much so that as of the 18z run, it doesn't even make landfall on the Florida coast. Its also currently initializing better than the Euro.



Again. People who live in Florida should have basic readiness done. They should have topped off gas tanks today, and if you live in the Keys, begun evacuation procedures. But making GBS threads your pants and dialing panic to 11 is loving stupid. Its now 4 days out, which is plenty of time for things to change. Drastically. If Irma passes as close to the islands as the Euro shows, its not going to maintain Cat 4/5. It will be able to restrengthen in the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream/Straits of Florida. But unlikely to hit the numbers the models are putting out. It also faces potential steering changes due to the different intensity. If it moves farther north of the islands, it could maintain Cat 4/5 but becomes more likely to recurve/remain OTS/head north into the Carolinas(the current GFS solution).

Decisions to evacuate areas on the main peninsula won't need to be made until late Thursday at the earliest. By 12z Saturday its still well off the coast on the GFS and its vacationing in Cuba at the same point on the Euro. Time. There is a lot of it, and things can drastically change in that time.

Hot Karl Marx posted:

sorry we are stuck in


GEOSTORM

Genocide Tendency posted:

Google history of storms that have ran across those islands. Hurricane David for example:



David is a prime example of what happens when a low level circulation runs across mountains. It gets ripped the gently caress apart.

Hot Karl Marx posted:

Don't worry, we got known smart person Rush Limbaugh to explain Irma to us

https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2017/09/05/my-analysis-of-the-hurricane-irma-panic/

MazelTovCocktail posted:

http://twitter.com/cityofmiami/status/905185163558223872

Hot Karl Marx posted:

sorry we are stuck in


GEOSTORM

shyduck posted:

what's the tl;dr here because that is a massive wall of nonsense

quote:

I’ve lived here since 1997, and I have developed a system that I trust, my own analysis of the data. And I’m not a meteorologist. I’m not gonna tell you what mine is because I don’t want to be misinterpreted as giving you a forecast. Well, I’m tempted to, though, because I’ve been exactly right since last Friday. I am tempted to tell you. ‘Cause I had people asking me back then. I’m tempted to tell you. But my better judgment says don’t go there.

quote:

You could be a sitting duck tonight or tomorrow depending on what they do with the track. This is another thing. At the current speed, we know the day is Sunday. Saturday night, Sunday morning, we know that. Unless something happens to slow it down like happened with Harvey. Once it came to shore, it stopped and that’s why Houston flooded. And nobody predicted it. Well, they did predict it was gonna stop. The models did predict that once it came ashore it was gonna stop for a while. They knew that.

shyduck posted:

what's the tl;dr here because that is a massive wall of nonsense

Hot Karl Marx posted:

Don't worry, we got known smart person Rush Limbaugh to explain Irma to us

https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2017/09/05/my-analysis-of-the-hurricane-irma-panic/

M_Gargantua posted:

liberals did it

"An Idiot" posted:

"Folks, the hurricane doesn’t even need to strike land. The hurricane doesn’t even need to hit in order to for the agenda to be advanced. All they have to do is create the panic and then show you that graphic of this giant red blob that, “Oh, my God, is gonna eat the country, you see this thing, is horrible, Mabel, look at how big…” And they create the fear and panic after they’ve already told everybody climate change is responsible for these bigger and more frequent storms." -

quote:

Now, my theory — and it’s only a theory — is that because of the biases, because of the politicization of everything, because you have people in all of these government areas who believe man is causing climate change, and they’re hell-bent on proving it, they’re hell-bent on demonstrating it, they’re hell-bent on persuading people of it. So here comes a hurricane that’s 10 to 12 days out and here come the initial model runs, and if it’s close — sometimes it’s not close, sometimes the hurricane will turn to the north out in the mid-Atlantic and there’s no way you can fake that. But if, if they are going to approach a hit on the U.S., you will note that early tracks always have them impacting a major population center.

Waroduce posted:

Got six gallons of water, 2 jars of peanut butter, jelly, crackers, bread, case of corona, 2x bottle of red wine, beef jerky, 3x boxes protein bars, soups and dog food

Allah akbar

shyduck posted:

what's the tl;dr here because that is a massive wall of nonsense

Dead Reckoning posted:

I'm still down with the death penalty. Like, I get that we aren't supposed to hold minors to the same standard of accountability as adults, but if you burn down a priceless natural landmark doing something that is a prime example of "do not do this thing, there are PSAs everywhere telling you not to do this thing" and you are clearly old enough to know better, I feel like the principle of demonstrating denunciation and opprobrium of such incredibly dangerous, costly, anti-social actions overrides that.

Eh, unless they take action against his license, he will probably be able to find another job. I'm pretty sure there are employed Paramedics with prior DUIs out there.

CommieGIR posted:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905227712708702208

MazelTovCocktail posted:

I love you guys but how many of you just willingly read something Rush Limbaugh wrote?

I mean weren't burn pits safer for the brain?

Genocide Tendency posted:

From the NHC's very own glossary:

Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).


Tropical Cyclones are a warm core low level feature.

If you had any loving clue how they work, you would understand this. But you don't.

Mountains disrupt the low level circulation and block the intake mechanism. Tropical cyclones operate on an intake at the surface around a surface low pressure system. It vents through the top of the storm. Looks and works like this:




And since I feel like piling on....

Google history of storms that have ran across those islands. Hurricane David for example:



David is a prime example of what happens when a low level circulation runs across mountains. It gets ripped the gently caress apart.

Oh hey. The loving Weather Channel did a story on 7 storms besides Erika that were ripped apart by Hispaniola alone....


Lets take a look at those mountains...

Cuba: Piqo Turquino - 6,476ft.

Before Irma reaches the vicinity of Cuba if it doesn't turn north and gets out of range....
Puerto Rico: Cerro de Punta - 4,390
Hispaniola: Pico Duarte - 10,164

The 5 tallest peeks are on the island of Hispaniola. All over 7400 feet. Which, as history has shown, is tall enough to disrupt the low level center of circulation and intake mechanics.

Here is a bigger list.


Oh hey.. Lets talk about those models. The GFS, which is a traditionally well regarded model spent the last 3 runs shifting east. So much so that as of the 18z run, it doesn't even make landfall on the Florida coast. Its also currently initializing better than the Euro.



Again. People who live in Florida should have basic readiness done. They should have topped off gas tanks today, and if you live in the Keys, begun evacuation procedures. But making GBS threads your pants and dialing panic to 11 is loving stupid. Its now 4 days out, which is plenty of time for things to change. Drastically. If Irma passes as close to the islands as the Euro shows, its not going to maintain Cat 4/5. It will be able to restrengthen in the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream/Straits of Florida. But unlikely to hit the numbers the models are putting out. It also faces potential steering changes due to the different intensity. If it moves farther north of the islands, it could maintain Cat 4/5 but becomes more likely to recurve/remain OTS/head north into the Carolinas(the current GFS solution).

Decisions to evacuate areas on the main peninsula won't need to be made until late Thursday at the earliest. By 12z Saturday its still well off the coast on the GFS and its vacationing in Cuba at the same point on the Euro. Time. There is a lot of it, and things can drastically change in that time.