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Precambrian Video Games
Aug 19, 2002



Wonder bread isn't bread. But enough about complex carbohydrates, let's read this informative Star article about some new Liberty Village King West condo development:

Tracy Hanes Freelance Real Estate writer posted:

Zen King West condos a match for millennial lifestyle

New 32-storey building will offer a downtown address, social hotspots and lots of green space

From left, Shamez Virani, CentreCourt Developments' president, Pav Lamba, a prospective buyer at Zen King West condos, and CentreCourt Developments' associate v-p Bader Elkhatib at Trinity Bellwoods Park, one of many green spaces near the upcoming new residential building.

Sat., Sept. 9, 2017

For 27-year-old Pav Lamba, Toronto’s King West neighbourhood suits his work/live/ play lifestyle to a tee.

It’s close to his job in the Financial District and makes it easy to meet up with friends at hotspots such as Buca, Los Colibris or El Cabillito Tequila Bar. He enjoys being close to the waterfront running track and to his family in nearby Port Credit.

That’s why Lamba is considering purchasing a suite in Zen King West, a new condominium project coming soon from CentreCourt Developments. The project is tailored to millennials, like Lamba, who work long hours, have active social lives and are into fitness. The 32-storey building, coming to King St. W. and Strachan Ave., will offer amenities including a deluxe, 5,000-square-foot gym with running track and zen spa. IQ Food Co., a seasonal kitchen specializing in nutritious, locally sourced food, will open a location on the ground floor.

To tap into the millennial mindset, CentreCourt president Shamez Virani sought the advice of Bader Elkhatib, associate vice president, 28, who lives in a condo around the corner from the site.

“Bader is a perfect reflection of the type of individuals we see living in the building,” says Virani, of the well-educated, high-achieving, fitness-focussed young executive. “He’s been our real-life guinea pig for all we’re doing at Zen.

“We don’t try to be all things to all people. We define who will live there and do a deep dive to understand what these people want in their home and in their lives,” adds Virani.

“When I joined CentreCourt and learned they had a site close to me, I got really excited about it,” says Elkhatib. “It’s so close to the action and close to green space. I like to go to the waterfront to run and I have a dog, so having a dog park nearby (South Stanley Park) is huge and Trinity Bellwoods Park is close.

“Having a five-minute walk to work is appealing. Having nightlife is important, but so is having things to do during the day.”

Virani also once lived in the neighbourhood. “What’s unique about King West is that it’s a 24-7 neighbourhood. In the morning, the cafes are buzzing, people are in the parks and walking dogs. And good luck trying to get a seat at lunchtime.”

In addition to its flourishing culinary scene, Virani cites the emergence of new office-space development in King West, with the arrival of companies such as Spotify and Universal Music. “It’s becoming the technology, IT and media braintrust of Toronto.”

Though the neighbourhood is already close to existing parks, more are in the works for the area. Garrison Crossing, a $19.7-million bridge — the first stainless steel bridge in Canada — will connect Stanley Park to the Fort York grounds to the south. The cycle and pedestrian bridge, that will cross two rail lines, will be completed in summer 2018. Stanley Park is slated for expansion and the future Ordnance Triangle Park is planned between two rail corridors near Strachan Ave.

Virani and Elkhatib also recognized that indoor fitness facilities resonate with millennials. “I work long hours and I really like the idea of a large gym,” says Elkhatib. “With my busy schedule, the more convenient it is, the better.”

“The typical (condo) gym design is about utility and having the right equipment more than the finishes. Bader opened our eyes to the new high-end gyms that charge $150 a month for memberships and how it’s not just about equipment, but the environment,” says Virani. “People want to be in a beautiful space they are proud of.”

Elkhatib’s feedback is responsible for elements such as a dedicated cross-fit and kettle ball areas and perks such as plants, comfortable furniture and complimentary juice. “Those things get you excited. Never discount the appeal of an Instagram-able gym,” Elkhatib says. “That resonates with millennials.”

A unique amenity will be the 3,000-square-foot zen spa, with hot and cold plunge pools, steam rooms, cabanas and Wi-Fi, “akin to the nicest five-star hotel spas,” says Virani.


The project is in the registration phase and Virani says response has been overwhelming. “King West has become the most desirable neighbourhood and millennials are the ones most attracted. There is a shortage of sites in the neighbourhood and this project has opened eyes to a new opportunity.”

ZEN KING WEST

Description: 32-storey tower with 481 suites

Location: 19 Western Battery Rd., (King and Strachan)

Developer: CentreCourt Developments

Suites: One-bedroom, one-bedroom-plus-den, two-bedroom, two-bedroom-plus-den. 410 to 750 square feet.

Website: https://www.zenkingwest.com

I'm glad to see that luxury condos have evolved from shoeboxes to, uh, bootboxes with gigantic zen spa saunas that are sure to have affordable maintenance fees and not be leaky pieces of poo poo. Also this building doesn't exist yet and why is the Star offering free advertising for pre-build condos in the first place?

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ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
free???...

apatheticman
May 13, 2003

Wedge Regret

RBC posted:

i buy six dollar bread at the farmers market i dont understand what the big deal is

Food prices in the states are significantly lower...

Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin
The income tax thing is kind of useless without comparison to others in similar circumstances though. "Investors" typically don't end up in high tax professions whcih are largely dominated by the WASP elite.

namaste faggots posted:

Wonder bread in the us is like 2 bucks

I'm living in the US right now and Wonderbread is $0.89.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

apatheticman posted:

Food prices in the states are significantly lower...

How dare you question the
Superiority of Canada after all we burned down the white house

Throatwarbler
Nov 17, 2008

by vyelkin
On an income adjusted basis it probably is a bit more expensive but with the CAD where it is food's actually pretty cheap in Canada in USD terms, especially compared to many US locales with ridiculous local sales taxes.

Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

wow look at these poors buying $6 bread. That new Fife bakery in the Mount Pleasant industrial area has $8 bread.

Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

eXXon posted:

Wonder bread isn't bread. But enough about complex carbohydrates, let's read this informative Star article about some new Liberty Village King West condo development:

I'm glad to see that luxury condos have evolved from shoeboxes to, uh, bootboxes with gigantic zen spa saunas that are sure to have affordable maintenance fees and not be leaky pieces of poo poo. Also this building doesn't exist yet and why is the Star offering free advertising for pre-build condos in the first place?

Jesus what are the maintenance fees going to be on a 3000 sqft zen spa?

Seriously buy a zero amenity building and a pass to the city gym. You'll save a fortune as the building ages and everything starts going wrong.

quote:


Ontario condo buyers grapple with monthly fees amid slow rollout of new rules

When Joe Byer bought a condo in a 24-storey downtown building in 2009, he and his wife were attracted in part by the appealingly low monthly fee: $400 for the two-bedroom unit.

After about a year, recalls Mr. Byer, an IT sales manager, the owners and condo board directors began looking more closely at the 20-year-old building's upkeep and discovered a growing list of long-ignored repairs. Yet, when they got around to vetting the building's reserve fund, they received a rude shock: "It was pretty depleted."

In short order, Mr. Byer says, a new board approved a doubling of the fees so they could pay a new management company to carry out those overdue fixes, which included replacing aging elevators, repairing the envelope of the underground garage, resealing the roof and replacing balcony railings. As he explains, "We had to pay [an additional] $10,000 a year to top up the reserve fund."

In theory, the Ontario government's slow-moving bid to improve the governance and financial management of condo corporations should help buyers such as Mr. Byer navigate what has traditionally been one of the trickiest elements of investing in such apartments, both existing and new-build. As of this month, the province is establishing the Condominium Authority of Ontario (CAO) to provide education and adjudicate disputes over access to condo records. (Owners will pay on average an additional $12 a year to fund the CAO.)

With new projects, some builders have used low monthly condo fees as a sales inducement, although these amounts typically rise and may, according to some analysts, grow more quickly with newer buildings that often succumb to construction defects sooner than older ones.

Toon Dreessen, president of Dreessen Cardinal Architects, adds that in some cases, new building fees may also reflect the fact that some developers lowball their own capital costs to keep unit prices down, offloading the eventual costs of dealing with issues such as underperforming HVAC systems onto the condo owners.


In the case of existing buildings, the law – while it received royal assent in 2015, the enabling regulations will only come into effect in phases, beginning this fall – requires condo boards to be more transparent about their finances. According to officials at the Ministry of Government and Consumer Services, the legislation will:

* Provide clearer rules to prevent buyers from being surprised by unexpected post-purchase costs on a new condo;

* Require developers to disclose conditions that may lead to an increase in common-area expenses within a set period of time after the corporation’s first year (e.g. elevator maintenance contract);

* Prohibit developers from selling or leasing common-area amenities such as gyms or party rooms, a practice that may raise condo fees.

The new policy also puts an additional onus on condo boards and management companies to be transparent with financial documents, improve communications with owners and forcing directors to reveals conflicts of interest. The latter provision responds to a growing number of media reports of condo boards with directors who have ties to developers.

According to one recent academic assessment of condo investment in Toronto, many buildings, especially newer ones, could experience significant capital-maintenance difficulties as they age. Yet, boards may continue to levy inadequate fees because of pressures brought by a high number of non-resident investors and owners with household financial pressures who don't want to see their levies rise.

"Our research suggests that investors are less inclined to support condo fees that are necessary to properly maintain the building," said the study's co-author, Steven Webber, an assistant professor at Ryerson University's school of urban and regional planning.


In his case, Mr. Byer asked a lawyer to review the condo corporation's financial statements before he signed the purchase agreement. "The lawyer said the reserves appeared healthy," he says. "It's tough to say what could have been done differently."

The condo laws require boards to hire an engineer to do a reserve-fund study every three years, according to the Condo Information Centre. But absent an up-to-date report that specifies necessary improvements, investors may still have limited information and smaller buildings may not be able to afford comprehensive assessments. Provincial officials say they plan to begin developing new regulations governing reserve funds this fall.

Condo buyers can also try to determine whether the fee levels are adequate by checking with the board as to whether the levies have risen steadily or by abrupt leaps in recent years.

Mr. Dreessen warns that some boards may seek to keep fees low because the directors plan to sell their units before the building needs significant capital repairs identified by reserve-fund studies. "When the rubber hits the road," he says, "the people who know in advance are already on their way out."

Alfred Holden, a retired editor who has twice served as president of his condo board, says he made a point of pushing his fellow directors and owners to raise fees to keep up with inflation and continuing maintenance requirements. "If the fee goes up regularly a little bit, that's a positive," he says, noting that his building's fees, at $1,200 a month, are comparable to rents. "There are some people in the building who say fees should be kept at a minimum, but to me that's a lot of BS."

Indeed, Mr. Holden's advice to prospective buyers is to look not for low fees but rather fees that rise at a steady rate, reflecting the building's age and upkeep.

Mr. Byer has similar message for buyers. "Take into account the age of the building. If it's 20 years old, repairs are coming."


The fees of probably every condo building have been set much too low by the initial developers and it's impossible to raise them at a level beyond inflation without inducing an owner revolt. It's going to be fun times in a few years.

Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 19:19 on Sep 10, 2017

HookShot
Dec 26, 2005
In San Francisco airport the other day the market shop was selling $14 loaves of bread.

USD.

DariusLikewise
Oct 4, 2008

You wore that on Halloween?
If I buy bread it's when Co-op does a 10 loaves for $10 deal and I buy like 20 and freeze all of them

HookShot
Dec 26, 2005
I don't buy bread because I don't eat a lot of it so I always end up having to throw out half a loaf, which sucks because I actually really like bread.

Luckily a local bakery sells jndividual buns so sometimes I go buy 1/2 at a time.

Cold on a Cob
Feb 6, 2006

i've seen so much, i'm going blind
and i'm brain dead virtually

College Slice

Femtosecond posted:

Jesus what are the maintenance fees going to be on a 3000 sqft zen spa?

Seriously buy a zero amenity building and a pass to the city gym. You'll save a fortune as the building ages and everything starts going wrong.


The fees of probably every condo building have been set much too low by the initial developers and it's impossible to raise them at a level beyond inflation without inducing an owner revolt. It's going to be fun times in a few years.

Condos are such a loving scam. All of the downsides of renting an apartment married with the downsides of home ownership, except it's worse because you're sharing ownership responsibilities and costs with a bunch of strangers, many of whom are just gonna flip the thing in a few years anyway so don't you loving DARE raise their fees.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

Cold on a Cob posted:

Condos are such a loving scam. All of the downsides of renting an apartment married with the downsides of home ownership, except it's worse because you're sharing ownership responsibilities and costs with a bunch of strangers, many of whom are just gonna flip the thing in a few years anyway so don't you loving DARE raise their fees.

I think condos could work if the base building and common property was all owned/managed by the city with fairly uniform rules and fees and upkeep policies. You buy your unit, pay a set upkeep fee and that's that. No debating years to raise the fee to pay for the new roof because 3 of the people on the council plan to sell next year and higher fees might scare away buyers. Way less stress for owners too, in smaller buildings when I talk to people everyone on the council is always over-worked and stressed because they're all amateurs with no special education or experience dealing with every single aspect of maintaining a huge building.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Or you could just change cap gains rules to stop favouring property owners so that housing isn't treated like an investment vehicle

Oh well I guess we'll never know because some dumb rear end wants to ~build condo equity~

James Baud
May 24, 2015

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

namaste faggots posted:

Or you could just change cap gains rules to stop favouring property owners so that housing isn't treated like an investment vehicle

Oh well I guess we'll never know because some dumb rear end wants to ~build condo equity~

I don't think the dumbasses paying 800k-1.1m today for mediocre 2br condos and townhouses are doing that. If anything, I'd be worried about making it too easy for people to register capital losses on their principle residences.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Lol shut up idiot

Guest2553
Aug 3, 2012


Cold on a Cob posted:

Condos are such a loving scam. All of the downsides of renting an apartment married with the downsides of home ownership, except it's worse because you're sharing ownership responsibilities and costs with a bunch of strangers, many of whom are just gonna flip the thing in a few years anyway so don't you loving DARE raise their fees.

If I was single or retired I could see myself renting a place like that under the right circumstances and bailing when poo poo starts falling apart with zero liability. Lol at owning that poo poo tho.


HookShot posted:

I don't buy bread because I don't eat a lot of it so I always end up having to throw out half a loaf, which sucks because I actually really like bread.

Freeze that poo poo, holmes. Energy star deep freezers are pretty cheap and you can stock up on stuff while it's on sale/in season/good bulk pricing.

HookShot
Dec 26, 2005

Guest2553 posted:

Freeze that poo poo, holmes. Energy star deep freezers are pretty cheap and you can stock up on stuff while it's on sale/in season/good bulk pricing.
It always tastes way worse after it's been frozen. I eat little enough of it that when I do buy bread I want that good $6 loaf and not the $3 bag of Dempsters or whatever.

In a perfect world people would sell half-sized loaves, like a lot of places do in Australia. I think Cobbs do it, being an Australian company originally, but we don't have one here.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
In my quest to boycott the Canadian economy and to do my part to help small businesses fail, I make it a policy to never spend money at local shops or farmers markets. Aside from Cobb's. Their white bread is worth the walk through hipster wasteland.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
I'm so glad that retarded cocktail equipment store on Broadway went bankrupt, as did the bougie Jewish deli Mensch. 14$ for smoked meat lmao. gently caress you

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord
I'm considering buying a million dollar McMansion since prices have dipped 20%, should I reconsider c/d

JawKnee
Mar 24, 2007





You'll take the ride to leave this town along that yellow line
do it

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
do it




:getin:

large hands
Jan 24, 2006
I suggest you do the opposite of whatever people in this thread suggest.

HookShot
Dec 26, 2005
A 2 bed/2 bath apartment just came up for $550,000 and I'm strongly considering buying it.

Evis
Feb 28, 2007
Flying Spaghetti Monster

I'm considering buying a place in a resort town for 1.75M that sold for 850k in 2012. Good idea?

Powershift
Nov 23, 2009


Evis posted:

I'm considering buying a place in a resort town for 1.75M that sold for 850k in 2012. Good idea?

Maybe buy a 1/4 share and go in with 3 random strangers?

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Buy now or be forever priced out!!!!!!

Mandibular Fiasco
Oct 14, 2012

namaste faggots posted:

In my quest to boycott the Canadian economy and to do my part to help small businesses fail, I make it a policy to never spend money at local shops or farmers markets. Aside from Cobb's. Their white bread is worth the walk through hipster wasteland.

Agreed. Cobb's bread is the best.

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008

quote:

A UBS survey of 907 Australians who took a mortgage in the past 12 months found that just 67 per cent said their application was completely factual and accurate versus 72 per cent a year ago.

By channel, the level fell to 61 vs 68 per cent for brokers and to 75 vs 78 per cent for bank branches. For NAB, the level fell to 62 per cent and for ANZ it fell to 55 per cent.

And while APRA has again clamped down on risky lending this year, 46 per cent said it was easier to get a mortgage compared to 17 per cent who said it was harder than previous experiences.

Equally disturbing from a policy standpoint is the fact that Respondents also said there has been no increase in the amount of supporting documentation and verification required.

“Despite recent macroprudential policies, the findings of this survey and the fact that mortgage approvals remain at record levels implies that there is little evidence mortgage underwriting standards have been tightened through the eyes of the consumer,” UBS analyst Jonathan Mott says.

Given the rising level of misstatement over multiple years, he estimates banks now have about $500 billion of factually inaccurate mortgages or “liar loans” on their books. The term was used in the US during the Financial Crisis for mortgages where documentation was not accurate.

“While household debt levels, elevated house prices and subdued income growth are well known, these finding suggest mortgagors are more stretched than the banks believe, implying losses in a downturn could be larger than the banks anticipate,” Mr Mott says. “We are underweight Australian banks and are very cautious the medium term outlook.”

quote:

Australian banks are sitting atop $500 billion worth of “liar loans” sold to borrowers who gave lenders false information to get a mortgage, which has the potential to threaten the entire financial system as interest rates rise from current record-lows.

The latest mortgage survey carried out by investment bank UBS found one-third of borrowers were not “completely factual and accurate” on their home loan application in the last year. One quarter of all borrowers said they were “mostly” accurate, while almost 10 per cent said they are only “partially factual” with their bank. Mortgages sold through brokers, which now account for around half of all home loans, were found to be less factual than those sold through a bank.

UBS analyst Jonathan Mott said borrowers were also finding it easier to get a mortgage approved than in previous years. “When asked about the amount of supporting documentation and verification required, participants stated there has been no increase,” he said.

“Given the rising level of misstatement over multiple years we estimate there are now ~$500bn of factually inaccurate mortgages on the banks’ books,” he said.

There are around $1.6 trillion worth of mortgages held by the Australian banking system, and although defaults and loan delinquencies are currently low, analysts believe rates of arrears are set to rise.

“Liar Loans” came to prominence in the US during the global financial crisis, which was exacerbated by mortgages that had been sold with inaccurate documentation.

With household debt levels at record highs, house prices continuing to climb, and with income growth at its slowest pact on record, Mr Mott said the survey of 907 Australians who took a mortgage in the past 12 months, suggested borrowers were even “more stretched than the banks believe”.

“Losses in a downturn could be larger than the banks anticipate,” he said.

Responsible lending standards legally require banks to ensure they are not selling loans to borrowers who are unable to afford them and have increasingly fallen under scrutiny from the major financial regulators amid surging house prices and exploding levels of debt.

Chairman of the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority Wayne Byres warned on Friday he would be intensifying the regulator’s focus on lending practices over the next year, and would be investigating banks to see if they were irresponsibly overriding their lending policies.

APRA will be targeting whether banks carried out accurate assessment of a borrower’s income and expenses; whether banks had watertight processes to check credit history and obligations; and effective oversight to ensure lending practices meet standards.

The Australian Securities & Investments Commission recently took Westpac, Australia’s second-largest bank, to court allegedly breaching responsible lending laws when selling interest-only mortgages. Westpac has denied the claims. ASIC has ramped up its surveillance of lending standards in the industry in recent months, examining whether banks correctly took into account borrowers’ ability to pay loans at the end of the interest-only period.

“Despite recent macroprudential policies, the findings of this survey and the fact that mortgage approvals remain at record levels implies that there is little evidence mortgage underwriting standards have been tightened through the eyes of the consumer,” Mr Mott said.

“We see these results as disturbing and difficult to reject given approximately one third of participants stated their application was not entirely factual and accurate,” he said.

“If anything, we believe it is more likely these figures may understate the level of misrepresentation in mortgage applications as some respondents may not want to state they were less than completely accurate despite the anonymity of this survey.”

While the official cash rate remains at a record low 1.5 per cent, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe last week warned that the economy was improving, foreshadowing that rate hikes could soon be on the agenda. Financial markets are pricing in around an 85 per cent chance of a rate rise by the end of next year.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
Cobbs is like the shittiest mass produced garbage, what is going on in here. Their sourdough isn't even real, it's just filled with citric acid to give it bite. :psyduck:

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord
What happens when your RE equity is over 1m, do you get a bowling trophy

UnfortunateSexFart
May 18, 2008

𒃻 𒌓ð’‰𒋫 𒆷ð’€𒅅𒆷
𒆠𒂖 𒌉 𒌫 ð’®𒈠𒈾𒅗 𒂉 𒉡𒌒𒂉𒊑


My wife is back on board with moving out of this shithole city/country and am in the process of getting our poo poo together and selling our half-million dollar condo (that was worth $250k two years ago).

There was an open house in my building this weekend and people were visiting every 5 minutes or so.

The Butcher
Apr 20, 2005

Well, at least we tried.
Nap Ghost

Evis posted:

I'm considering buying a place in a resort town for 1.75M that sold for 850k in 2012. Good idea?

I think buying in resort towns is kinda a whole other :can: on its own. Their economies are sorta knife edge at times it seems.

Depending what kind of resort, you'd want to look at probable climate change trends for it.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

HookShot posted:

A 2 bed/2 bath apartment just came up for $550,000 and I'm strongly considering buying it.

4-5 years ago when this thread convinced us buying a condo was a huge idiotic mistake and prices were about to crash we looked at a nice 2br in a recently renovated ex-leaky 90's building for about 310k, it just sold for 400k or so. Buy now or forever be priced out. Or buy now and enjoy a crash next year to the NDP destroying are economy.

Mandibular Fiasco
Oct 14, 2012
I think this might have been missed by the thread, and I think it's very relevant to the Canadian, and especially Vancouver, situation. TLDR: It wasn't poor people that caused the housing collapse. It was rich people doubling down on real estate through speculation.

https://qz.com/1064061/house-flippers-triggered-the-us-housing-market-crash-not-poor-subprime-borrowers-a-new-study-shows/

quote:

The grim tale of America’s “subprime mortgage crisis” delivers one of those stinging moral slaps that Americans seem to favor in their histories. Poor people were reckless and stupid, banks got greedy. Layer in some Wall Street dark arts, and there you have it: a global financial crisis.

Dark arts notwithstanding, that’s not what really happened, though.

Mounting evidence suggests that the notion that the 2007 crash happened because people with shoddy credit borrowed to buy houses they couldn’t afford is just plain wrong. The latest comes in a new NBER working paper arguing that it was wealthy or middle-class house-flipping speculators who blew up the bubble to cataclysmic proportions, and then wrecked local housing markets when they defaulted en masse.

Analyzing a huge dataset of anonymous credit scores from Equifax, a credit reporting bureau, the economists—Stefania Albanesi of the University of Pittsburgh, the University of Geneva’s Giacomo De Giorgi, and Jaromir Nosal of Boston College—found that the biggest growth of mortgage debt during the housing boom came from those with credit scores in the middle and top of the credit score distribution—and that these borrowers accounted for a disproportionate share of defaults.

As for those with low credit scores—the “subprime” borrowers who supposedly caused the crisis—their borrowing stayed virtually constant throughout the boom. And while it’s true that these types of borrowers usually default at relatively higher rates, they didn’t after the 2007 housing collapse. The lowest quartile in the credit score distribution accounted for 70% of foreclosures during the boom years, falling to just 35% during the crisis.

So why were relatively wealthier folks borrowing so much?

Recall that back then the mantra was that housing prices would keep rising forever. Since owning a home is one of the best ways to build wealth in America, most of those with sterling credit already did. Low rates encouraged some of them to parlay their credit pedigree and growing existing home value into mortgages for additional homes. Some of these were long-term purchases (e.g. vacation homes, homes held for rental income). But as a Federal Reserve Bank of New York report from 2011 reveals (pdf, p.26), an increasing share bought with the aim to “flip” the home a few months or years later for a tidy profit.

In early 2004, a little more than 10% of borrowers in the top three quartiles of the credit score distribution had two or more mortgages. By 2007, that had leapt to around 16% for borrowers in the middle half of the credit-score distribution, and around 13% among that top quartile. However, for the lowest quartile (i.e. subprime), only around 6% had more than one mortgage, rising to around 8% by 2007.

Clearly, richer borrowers were driving the trend. For instance, among prime borrowers, the growth in per capita mortgage balances held by investors was around 20 percentage points higher for those with the highest credit scores than those with the lowest.

Come 2007, investors accounted for 43% of the total mortgage balance for the top credit-score quartile. For the middle two quartiles, speculators were responsible for around 35% in 2007.

This set up a dangerous dynamic. The mortgages these prime borrowers were able to secure were much bigger than those taken out by poor homebuyers. Worse, speculators have less incentive to hold onto their extra homes than those who only own one home. So when the housing market started tumbling and the economy soon followed, they were much more willing to default and foreclose, as you can see in the chart below.

This would explain why, as the researchers put it, “the rise in mortgage delinquencies is virtually exclusively accounted for by real estate investors.” The share of single-mortgage borrowers who couldn’t keep up on their loan payments barely budged between 2005 and 2008.

Recent research—particularly that by Antoinette Schoar, a finance professor at MIT Sloan—has been helping rewrite the received wisdom of the “subprime crisis” that has blamed the crisis on poor, reckless borrowers for the better part of a decade. Schoar’s work reveals that borrowing and defaults had risen proportionally across income levels and credit score, but that those with sounder credit ratings drove the rise in delinquencies. This new paper’s investigation into the habits of middle- and upper-income real estate speculators in the run-up to the crisis marks yet another chapter of the history books in desperate need of revision.

Here's a link to the paper itself (or at least a website where you can get access through a few different means): http://www.nber.org/papers/w23740

The NBER are a pretty serious outfit - it takes something solid to get a paper published by them.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
STOP YOUR CREDENTIALISM

Just because I don't fit your criteria for intellectual ivory tower smart guy doesn't make my opinions LESS RELEVANT. Open your mind

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

Rime posted:

Cobbs is like the shittiest mass produced garbage, what is going on in here. Their sourdough isn't even real, it's just filled with citric acid to give it bite. :psyduck:

:rolleyes:

Then go buy your sourdough from those chinee hipsters at Fife

I love Fife those motherfuckers make good bread

blah_blah
Apr 15, 2006

Baronjutter posted:

4-5 years ago when this thread convinced us buying a condo was a huge idiotic mistake and prices were about to crash we looked at a nice 2br in a recently renovated ex-leaky 90's building for about 310k, it just sold for 400k or so. Buy now or forever be priced out. Or buy now and enjoy a crash next year to the NDP destroying are economy.

That's about an annualized increase of 5-6%, which you could have beaten by investing in just about anything over that timeframe, given the performance of global financial markets and the Canadian dollar. And you wouldn't be tethered to a leaky condo which would cost you around 20k in realtor fees to sell.

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Mandibular Fiasco
Oct 14, 2012

namaste faggots posted:

STOP YOUR CREDENTIALISM

Just because I don't fit your criteria for intellectual ivory tower smart guy doesn't make my opinions LESS RELEVANT. Open your mind

Come on you goof. I am contrasting the usual tripe that floats around here from the VREB where their "economist" has a bachelor's degree and no peer reviewed anything, with the National Bureau of Economic Research, a gang of nerds even nerdier than I am, but who actually know something about economic analysis and have some level of rigorous training to back it up.

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