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Are you a
This poll is closed.
homeowner 39 22.41%
renter 69 39.66%
stupid peace of poo poo 66 37.93%
Total: 174 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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Robo Captain
Sep 28, 2013

SurreptitiousMuffin posted:

Colmar Brunton:

Labour 44%
National 40%
Green 7%
NZF 6%
TOP 2%

I want to believe

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redleader
Aug 18, 2005

Engage according to operational parameters
‘Words do mean things’: Highlights from Guyon Espiner’s brutal interview with Winston Peters

Personally, I really can't stand listening to politicians evade and dissemble. It's just so frustrating.

exmarx
Feb 18, 2012


The experience over the years
of nothing getting better
only worse.
In past elections, polls have pretty accurate for National, over-estimated the Greens, and under-estimated NZ First.

who even knows now tho

El Pollo Blanco
Jun 12, 2013

by sebmojo

Slavvy posted:

Seems pretty optimisitc.

TBH I don't 'get' polls. Before the lecture begins: I understand how statistics work, I realise that a representative sample can be relatively small and still have accuracy. But in this case we're doing polls every few days and I find it hard to believe that out of a group of a thousand-odd people there are so many that are hemming and hawing and vacillating constantly on which way to vote and that this also perfectly reflects the vacillating of the public at large.

The voters who are undecided in the last week of elections are really, really, really thick. Any swing voter who actually gives a poo poo about policies will have already made up their minds, undecided voters are probably barely aware of any policy whatsoever.

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/elect...spy-claims.html

If anyone in Wellington wondered what that massive groan was 2 hours ago, it was Winnie orgasming harder than he has been able to in the last 30 years.

El Pollo Blanco fucked around with this message at 07:30 on Sep 14, 2017

oohhboy
Jun 8, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Polls always close a bit closing on election day. I don't see a "2016" reversal like in the states happening as that was an artefact to the flaws in their system unless our electorates have some sort of blow out. A scandal big enough to swing it at this point would be extremely unlikely as you just can't hide something that large from the endless dirt diggers not that they are making poo poo up in it's absence and if the opposition ever got it they won't hesitate to use it at first opportunity instead waiting until after votes are already being cast.

The real path for a left defeat would be the polls were wrong the entire time on a massive scale or they shoot themselves in the head, repeatedly which Labour seemed to initially have done when they swapped for Jacinda which has turned into an amazingly gutsy move which clearly show Labour is on the top of things within their own party and are willing to change.

I know there are pessimists out there but I am tried of your Doom poo poo. Cast your vote for the left and sit down. Should we lose there will no doubt be endless Hillary type bitching for the next 3 years.

As for taxes National raised a bunch of them(on the poor) without raising an eyebrow. Reversing the GST increase and bringing stronger Capital Gains would be an easy sell as everyone's taxes are lower immediately and they can sell eat the rich.

Somfin
Oct 25, 2010

In my🦚 experience🛠️ the big things🌑 don't teach you anything🤷‍♀️.

Nap Ghost
The promise to dump secondary tax won Labour my party vote, and being in Hutt South won 'em my electorate vote too.

Slavvy
Dec 11, 2012

El Pollo Blanco posted:

The voters who are undecided in the last week of elections are really, really, really thick. Any swing voter who actually gives a poo poo about policies will have already made up their minds, undecided voters are probably barely aware of any policy whatsoever.

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/elect...spy-claims.html

If anyone in Wellington wondered what that massive groan was 2 hours ago, it was Winnie orgasming harder than he has been able to in the last 30 years.

So that leaves two possibilities: there are several hundred thousand thick as gently caress people who genuinely don't know who to vote for because voting works in reality like it does on paper, or polls are useless for anything besides getting a general feel for the public mood because they don't really reflect how the voting public behaves.

Ghostlight
Sep 25, 2009

maybe for one second you can pause; try to step into another person's perspective, and understand that a watermelon is cursing me



Polls are actually really useful for influencing voters, regardless of their accuracy.

edogawa rando
Mar 20, 2007

El Pollo Blanco posted:

Vast majority of landlords claim they'll increase rents more if a Lab government is formed.

Guillotines can't come soon enough.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCiYmCVikjo

Slavvy
Dec 11, 2012

Ghostlight posted:

Polls are actually really useful for influencing voters, regardless of their accuracy.

I hadn't considered that, makes perfect sense though. Chur!

Project M.A.M.I.L.
Apr 30, 2007

Older, balder, fatter...
Voted Green, feels good man.

Polls are a way of keeping people home by making them think 'oh well they're gonna win anyway what's the point' etc.

Wandle Cax
Dec 15, 2006

Midget Fist posted:

Voted Green, feels good man.

Polls are a way of keeping people home by making them think 'oh well they're gonna win anyway what's the point' etc.

i think i remember reading some research saying that if your party is in front you're more encouraged to go out and vote for them rather than not bothering because they're ahead anyway. Who really knows how it influences people though, it could go either way. If your party is behind you might be more encouraged to vote for them too.

exmarx
Feb 18, 2012


The experience over the years
of nothing getting better
only worse.
It seems like half the people posting in the comments of any Stuff article on tenancy are landlords. Weird how they've all got a bunch of free time???

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1t9iCI9wXlU

exmarx fucked around with this message at 11:45 on Sep 14, 2017

Robo Captain
Sep 28, 2013
Owned.
https://twitter.com/Josh__NZ/status/908257031496200192

SuperiorColliculus
Oct 31, 2011

Slavvy posted:

So that leaves two possibilities: there are several hundred thousand thick as gently caress people who genuinely don't know who to vote for

Look inside your heart: you already know the truth

Red_Fred
Oct 21, 2010


Fallen Rib

This is great. ACT are the worst.

slinkimalinki
Jan 17, 2010

xiw posted:

agh I can't take another week of this

Signed up to scrutineer, should be interesting.

Yeah, scrutineering sounds cool.

Project M.A.M.I.L.
Apr 30, 2007

Older, balder, fatter...

Wandle Cax posted:

i think i remember reading some research saying that if your party is in front you're more encouraged to go out and vote for them rather than not bothering because they're ahead anyway. Who really knows how it influences people though, it could go either way. If your party is behind you might be more encouraged to vote for them too.

I think it depends on your personality too, whether you are pessimistic or optomistic. But I worded my post poorly, I meant more like if your party is way down in the polls and the Herald is predicting a landslide then from what I read in the analysis of one of the recent elections, it can lead to people feeling like their vote doesn't matter so why bother.

bobbilljim
May 29, 2013

this christmas feels like the very first christmas to me
:shittydog::shittydog::shittydog:

El Pollo Blanco posted:

The voters who are undecided in the last week of elections are really, really, really thick. Any swing voter who actually gives a poo poo about policies will have already made up their minds, undecided voters are probably barely aware of any policy whatsoever.



Any swing voter is thick, it's not like much changes between elections. Unfortunately as most people are thick naturally most voters are too. I forgot where this was going. More funding to education???

Dsmif
Sep 4, 2014

I just voted today (Greens/Stuart Nash) and I was thinking about the current election day laws and whether they will have to look to start expanding them in the future.

At the moment its illegal to campaign on election day and they parties have to take down their placards, but with so many people advance voting now, should these restrictions be brought forward to cover the entire voting period?

Varkk
Apr 17, 2004

No because people will forget the election is on and neglect to vote. Maybe just tweak the law and expand the distance from an advance polling station campaign activity is allowed.

voiceless anal fricative
May 6, 2007

Nah if anything the restrictions should be lifted a bit on election day campaigning

NZAmoeba
Feb 14, 2005

It turns out it's MAN!
Hair Elf
I remember reading somewhere that the laws were brought in to counter politicians who would gather up a big crowd at a bar, pay for everyone's drinks, and then when they're all appropriately sloshed, lead them to the polling booth reminding them who just paid for all their free booze. This sort of poo poo went down in the late 1800's.

El Pollo Blanco
Jun 12, 2013

by sebmojo

NZAmoeba posted:

I remember reading somewhere that the laws were brought in to counter politicians who would gather up a big crowd at a bar, pay for everyone's drinks, and then when they're all appropriately sloshed, lead them to the polling booth reminding them who just paid for all their free booze. This sort of poo poo went down in the late 1800's.

According to the NZ National party, that still happens, except the pub is a KFC in Manuwera, and the booze is fried chicken.

e: anyone here going to the Green party pub crawl in Welli tomorrow?

El Pollo Blanco fucked around with this message at 06:20 on Sep 15, 2017

Wandle Cax
Dec 15, 2006
Also, the only reason the vote is technically a secret ballot is so wives weren't compelled who to vote for by their husbands.

voiceless anal fricative
May 6, 2007

I get why you don't want people harassed at polling booths, but other than that I don't really know why campaigning is banned election day.

edogawa rando
Mar 20, 2007

I enrolled one of the kids in my tutor group, and I voted. I've done my part.

What's interesting is how fascinated my Y9 kids are by the "I voted" sticker I've got on my school laptop.

oohhboy
Jun 8, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

bike tory posted:

I get why you don't want people harassed at polling booths, but other than that I don't really know why campaigning is banned election day.

There is a fine line between campaigning, harassment and intimidation. If you turned up to or near a polling place where there were a group of loud people with big signs screaming "Vote xyz" you are going to feel that. This is much, much harder to sustain over 12 days of voting and during that time they can get caught with enough time to air the dirty actions towards the relevant party. But a good chunk of people still stick to election day to vote because reasons so a ban nips this in the bud for most part.

voiceless anal fricative
May 6, 2007

I thought they had rules about campaigning within X distance of advance voting places? They could do the same on election day.

slinkimalinki
Jan 17, 2010
It's pretty loving annoying that you have to get all your billboards down the night before.

slinkimalinki
Jan 17, 2010
RIP poor Freckles, saw a billboard and died.

oohhboy
Jun 8, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

bike tory posted:

I thought they had rules about campaigning within X distance of advance voting places? They could do the same on election day.

This is one of those times a ban makes sense and solves alot of problems. In the US even with the distance restrictions people are still getting harassed and intimidated not helped by the few polling places with long lines.

Advanced voting helps as it is very difficult to sustain so many days of artificial presence without a lot of money across so many places. The restriction zone is 10 meters from the entrance. so not much. But our voting process isn't FUBAR at a fundamental level.

Page 13: http://www.elections.org.nz/sites/default/files/bulk-upload/documents/candidate_handbook_-_general_election_2017.pdf

Varkk
Apr 17, 2004

slinkimalinki posted:

It's pretty loving annoying that you have to get all your billboards down the night before.

Didn't one of the candidates last election go out to take down their signs the night before but a number were already gone. Only to find that someone put them up again in the small hours of Election Day morning?

SurreptitiousMuffin
Mar 21, 2010
Roy Morgan results are out, and their servers are getting pummelled to poo poo. The results are here:

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7339-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-september-10-2017-201709151750

but I haven't been able to read them under a barrage of 503 errors

edit:

National 40%
Labour 39.5%
Greens 9%
NZF 6%

Labour/Green/Maori on 62 seats, National/NZF/UF/ACT on 58. Seems like newshub was the outlier?

SurreptitiousMuffin fucked around with this message at 09:55 on Sep 15, 2017

oohhboy
Jun 8, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Someone had graffiti a Labour sign near where I lived with "(Unreadable) oval office". I thought to myself it would be nice if you were educated enough so you could deface something so people could read it or have it be creative in an appreciable way. You get awesome ones like Vote Batman, hell I would settle over a Chapplen moustache over whatever that was.

I am just disappointed at how zero effort it was.

Wandle Cax
Dec 15, 2006

SurreptitiousMuffin posted:

Roy Morgan results are out, and their servers are getting pummelled to poo poo. The results are here:

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7339-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-september-10-2017-201709151750

but I haven't been able to read them under a barrage of 503 errors

edit:

National 40%
Labour 39.5%
Greens 9%
NZF 6%

Not being reported anywhere or on twitter yet for some reason?

e: well it's on twitter not much talk about it yet tho

El Pollo Blanco
Jun 12, 2013

by sebmojo

SurreptitiousMuffin posted:

Roy Morgan results are out, and their servers are getting pummelled to poo poo. The results are here:

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7339-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-september-10-2017-201709151750

but I haven't been able to read them under a barrage of 503 errors

edit:

National 40%
Labour 39.5%
Greens 9%
NZF 6%

Labour/Green/Maori on 62 seats, National/NZF/UF/ACT on 58. Seems like newshub was the outlier?

This is good news, but Roy Morgan polls have always shown Greens 3-4% higher in the last 2 weeks before the election than they get on the day.

SurreptitiousMuffin
Mar 21, 2010
Yeah RM definitely have a Green bias and I doubt we're actually at 9%. It's more like, I doubt we're below 5% and that is a huge loving relief after the last few weeks.

I chose a stressful loving election to work on, man.

Nition
Feb 25, 2006

You really want to know?
I can't believe the Internet Party is still a party you can vote for.

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xiw
Sep 25, 2011

i wake up at night
night action madness nightmares
maybe i am scum

Cpig Haiku contest 2020 winner

Nition posted:

I can't believe the Internet Party is still a party you can vote for.

I just opened their discord which it turns out I've been in since the last election



of course they're trading altcoins

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