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Flip Yr Wig
Feb 21, 2007

Oh please do go on
Fun Shoe

KillHour posted:

This new FiveThirtyEight article is making my head spin.



These numbers mean that there are people who think the kneeling is both about calling attention to racism AND disrespecting the military. How the hell do you come to that conclusion? At least a few people said "All of the above." and decided it's both about disrespect AND protesting violence. :psypop:

These people valorize the violent arms of the state as benevolent protectors and see the police and the military as roughly equivalent. An attack on the police is an attack on the right of the state to protect the nation from harm, and because their politics is primarily informed by fear of omnipresent danger, this is basically an act of treason.

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evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Captain Invictus posted:

so if democrats sweep the government, what the gently caress is going to happen? This seems tantamount to a declaration of war by sabotaging our democratic election and infiltrating multiple aspects of society to do so, as well as seemingly hacking or otherwise breaking into private governmental systems. I really don't feel like this can be let go with a simple finger-waggling, but what do we do that doesn't simply involve nuking moscow or poloniuming putin?

more sanctions on his oligarchs, seizing all of the stuff that keeps them loyal. the maginsky act pissed him off like nothing else (and that's what the russians were SAYING they wanted, a repeal of that, when dangling hacked stuff to Don Jr.) because it targets those oligarchs and that weakens putin

WeAreTheRomans
Feb 23, 2010

by R. Guyovich

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Russian media and online intervention in the 2016 election was greater than previously known.

In addition to the ads on Twitter and Facebook that were previously reported, the WaPo and Google have uncovered additional instances.

All of these ads were either touting Donald Trump, attacking Hillary, or promoting Jill Stein/Bernie Sanders. They were all also geo-targeted at the Midwest, Florida, and Nevada.

I'm actually kinda surprised the Russians didn't plant a few pro-HRC ads as well - it would be a very Russian strategy to seek plausible deniability and promote confusion by playing both sides. I guess that's what they were trying to do in part with the Stein/Sanders stuff though

Boon
Jun 21, 2005

by R. Guyovich

KillHour posted:

All the really lovely people I know joined the [branch] Guard and won't shut up about their "service" and "sacrifice" and how much they "risked their lives" in the "military" (yet they conveniently neglect to mention they were in the Guard) so this checks out.

I'm currently a reservist and I have to say that in transitioning from active duty to reserves that your statement also checks out. God I loving hate the reserves, that healthcare and travel though.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

WeAreTheRomans posted:

I'm actually kinda surprised the Russians didn't plant a few pro-HRC ads as well - it would be a very Russian strategy to seek plausible deniability and promote confusion by playing both sides. I guess that's what they were trying to do in part with the Stein/Sanders stuff though

russia doesn't actually really care about plausible deniability here, getting caught also helps damage american institutions

Flip Yr Wig
Feb 21, 2007

Oh please do go on
Fun Shoe

WeAreTheRomans posted:

I'm actually kinda surprised the Russians didn't plant a few pro-HRC ads as well - it would be a very Russian strategy to seek plausible deniability and promote confusion by playing both sides. I guess that's what they were trying to do in part with the Stein/Sanders stuff though

It seems pretty clear to me that the Russians didn't particularly care if they got caught. If Trump wins, they've got their guy in office, if Hillary wins, she's put in the awkward situation of propagating a destabilizing conspiracy that will sound crazy and pointless to the public. And if it gets out, it has the effect of delegitimizing the democratic process, which is a plus.

Captain Invictus
Apr 5, 2005

Try reading some manga!


Clever Betty

evilweasel posted:

more sanctions on his oligarchs, seizing all of the stuff that keeps them loyal. the maginsky act pissed him off like nothing else (and that's what the russians were SAYING they wanted, a repeal of that, when dangling hacked stuff to Don Jr.) because it targets those oligarchs and that weakens putin
Yeah, but that's not going to stop them from continuing to manipulate poo poo in US democratic politics, like they're still doing it even now. What are the options to stop them? Sure tightening the economic noose hurts them, but I don't know if it'd make them quit loving around with funding extreme right-wing groups in the US and around the world.

AsInHowe
Jan 11, 2007

red winged angel

Groovelord Neato posted:

it owns that right wing media made a sizable portion of the country so stupid we were susceptible to influence by a foreign power.

Not only stupid, but stupid and stubborn.

You all know that once all the info comes out, a big percentage of the population will refuse to acknowledge it, or go further in the tank for Russian propaganda, just because they are being told it's bad.

Vladimir Putin
Mar 17, 2007

by R. Guyovich

KillHour posted:

I dunno, I think it's pretty smart. He got a lot of attention for the cause, if nothing else. The cops vs. black people thing was already as polarized as could be, so it's not like he's turning anybody off. The protests have higher support than BLM, in any case.

It was really going nowhere for months until Trump picked it up.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Captain Invictus posted:

Yeah, but that's not going to stop them from continuing to manipulate poo poo in US democratic politics, like they're still doing it even now. What are the options to stop them? Sure tightening the economic noose hurts them, but I don't know if it'd make them quit loving around with funding extreme right-wing groups in the US and around the world.

you can't stop a nuclear power from causing trouble you can just put pressure on putin personally then negotiate to take it off

that said, there's also the other thing we're doing that absolutely is wrecking putin's power: fracking. america has started producing so much natural gas from fracking in the past half decade or so that global energy prices have nosedived and russia is basically a petrostate so they are in a bad place as a result.

Vladimir Putin
Mar 17, 2007

by R. Guyovich

WeAreTheRomans posted:

I'm actually kinda surprised the Russians didn't plant a few pro-HRC ads as well - it would be a very Russian strategy to seek plausible deniability and promote confusion by playing both sides. I guess that's what they were trying to do in part with the Stein/Sanders stuff though

You have your strategy all wrong. Stein/Sanders wasn't for deniability. It was to damage Clinton.

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


Boon posted:

I'm currently a reservist and I have to say that in transitioning from active duty to reserves that your statement also checks out. God I loving hate the reserves, that healthcare and travel though.

I didn't join the military because I knew I would be absolutely miserable in it, but my cousin is a drill Sargent and I kind of envy him because he gets to make terrible peoples' lives miserable.

Groovelord Neato
Dec 6, 2014


Vladimir Putin posted:

It was really going nowhere for months until Trump picked it up.

haha what. trump ruined what it was actually about.

Grapplejack
Nov 27, 2007

Vladimir Putin posted:

You have your strategy all wrong. Stein/Sanders wasn't for deniability. It was to damage Clinton.

You're thinking too specifically. The Russians want chaos. They funded most of the challengers to the establishment and fueled divides within the party and the country to try and gently caress up as much as they possibly could.

Silverfang
Dec 30, 2011

Withnail posted:

Vast untapped natural resources.

Also we managed to not be completely leveled by WWII by virtue of being on the other side of the world.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

Captain Invictus posted:

At the same time, he was clean, and likely even with stricter gun regulations, could have still slipped through the cracks based on literally everything people were saying about him outside of him losing at gambling, which happens all the drat time and not everyone goes on rampages because of going broke at the blackjack table. Yeah his father was a supreme dirtbag, but, well, Sins Of The Father and all that. My friend's dad was a horrifying person but that doesn't mean his son was too. From everything I've seen the only sign that he had "serious untreated mental health issues" was that he went and premeditatedly shot up a concert with a shitload of guns, and really that's a wee bit late to detect instability.

Someone like him, likely a psychopath like you said, could probably still get past the checks in the system and get ahold of plenty of heavy weaponry legally. I had a conversation with a gun rights advocate and he did not have a single argument he could make in defense of semiautomatic(at minimum) weaponry being legally obtainable and collected en masse with this as an example, because there is literally zero prior evidence he might do this short of maybe his dad treating him like garbage as a kid, and that's still a stretch.

Yeah, the only thing that stops this guy is either a total ban OR broad cultural change such that "suicide by cop" is no longer a thing men do when they face a loss of status. Your guess which is more likely. the answer is "neither"

Mordaedil
Oct 25, 2007

Oh wow, cool. Good job.
So?
Grimey Drawer

KillHour posted:

They don't have to be for more regulations on anything. You're the one saying a certain amount of death isn't acceptable. However, they're also implying you're not for more regulations on driving, that regulations on driving are somehow mutually exclusive with regulations on guns or that you can't focus on one problem as long as any larger problem also exists. All of those things are stupid, but your rebuttal wasn't very effective.

Fair enough, I thought it was kinda weak, but I'm not very good at arguing and I'm not educated in the finer points of law or regulations in America and I didn't want to go down the trodden path that just downplays deaths because that just makes me sad.

DaveWoo
Aug 14, 2004

Fun Shoe
https://mobile.twitter.com/NTarnopolsky/status/917382183727312896

Krispy Wafer
Jul 26, 2002

I shouted out "Free the exposed 67"
But they stood on my hair and told me I was fat

Grimey Drawer

Flip Yr Wig posted:

It seems pretty clear to me that the Russians didn't particularly care if they got caught. If Trump wins, they've got their guy in office, if Hillary wins, she's put in the awkward situation of propagating a destabilizing conspiracy that will sound crazy and pointless to the public. And if it gets out, it has the effect of delegitimizing the democratic process, which is a plus.

Trump wasn't even their best case scenario. Ideally Hillary won, Trump didn't concede, and the whole system got bogged down with a statistically significant number of people questioning Hillary's legitimacy. This eroded voter faith in Washington further and set the country up for an even nastier 2020 election.

Instead Russia actually got their preferred candidate in office, which exposed their nefarious dealings and got them deeper sanctions. Plus it invalidated their efforts in France and Germany. They did throw a wrench into our political system though. Still, it's unlikely they'll have any influence over the 2018 and 2020 elections. And those sanctions aren't going anywhere.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Is anything really going to change that would prevent Russia from doing the same stuff in 2018/2020? Congress likely won't take much action. The Trump people sure as hell are not going to do anything.

Groovelord Neato
Dec 6, 2014


the russia stuff only worked because you had the two least popular candidates in history running.

Randbrick
Sep 28, 2002
Targeted individual sanctions against specific actors is actually devastating to Russian interests. It seems lile a vanity exercise and the practice has not been adequately unpacked to the public. And it really does seem absurd, like sanctioning and freezing the bank accounts and wire transfer of several dozen people is going to affect national behavior.

But remember that Russia is a kleptocratic oligarchy which stands only for the benefit of a few dozen people. These few dozen people can be hit hard because the new the money they steal out the Russian economy to be transortable.

marshmonkey
Dec 5, 2003

I was sick of looking
at your stupid avatar
so
have a cool cat instead.

:v:
Switchblade Switcharoo
https://twitter.com/wpjenna/status/917382792517996549

quote:

According to the Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll, the Republican president’s popularity is eroding in small towns and rural communities where 15 percent of the country’s population lives. The poll of more than 15,000 adults in “non-metro” areas shows that they are now as likely to disapprove of Trump as they are to approve of him.

theflyingorc
Jun 28, 2008

ANY GOOD OPINIONS THIS POSTER CLAIMS TO HAVE ARE JUST PROOF THAT BULLYING WORKS
Young Orc

Groovelord Neato posted:

the russia stuff only worked because you had the two least popular candidates in history running.

While Hillary didn't have the charisma needed to overcome it, part of the reason she WAS so unpopular was this type of thing (well, and being the presumptive nominee). She was usually found to be the most popular/respected/inspiring woman in politics up until the latter half of 2015.

Krispy Wafer
Jul 26, 2002

I shouted out "Free the exposed 67"
But they stood on my hair and told me I was fat

Grimey Drawer

Randbrick posted:

Targeted individual sanctions against specific actors is actually devastating to Russian interests. It seems lile a vanity exercise and the practice has not been adequately unpacked to the public. And it really does seem absurd, like sanctioning and freezing the bank accounts and wire transfer of several dozen people is going to affect national behavior.

But remember that Russia is a kleptocratic oligarchy which stands only for the benefit of a few dozen people. These few dozen people can be hit hard because the new the money they steal out the Russian economy to be transortable.

Also, Putin isn't all powerful. He needs support from the oligarchy just like American politicians need their special interest groups. He can arrest or harass individual billionaires, but if most of them feel like Putin is more trouble than good then they will get rid of him. And unlike the U.S., getting rid of someone in Russia doesn't mean supporting their opponent in an election.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

theflyingorc posted:

While Hillary didn't have the charisma needed to overcome it, part of the reason she WAS so unpopular was this type of thing (well, and being the presumptive nominee). She was usually found to be the most popular/respected/inspiring woman in politics up until the latter half of 2015.

And if Bernie had won the nomination, overnight he would have become the Most Corrupt Politician In American History (Click Here To See Why!).

BarbarianElephant
Feb 12, 2015
The fairy of forgiveness has removed your red text.

theflyingorc posted:

While Hillary didn't have the charisma needed to overcome it, part of the reason she WAS so unpopular was this type of thing (well, and being the presumptive nominee). She was usually found to be the most popular/respected/inspiring woman in politics up until the latter half of 2015.

If Bernie had been the candidate, he'd have got a lot of character assassination, too. I'd have expected to see a lot of sly anti-semitism couched as concern about his atheism. And that dubious affair with his wife and college funding that went nowhere - that would have been blown up until he looked like a sleazy moneygrubbing crook.

Sephyr
Aug 28, 2012

Krispy Wafer posted:

Also, Putin isn't all powerful. He needs support from the oligarchy just like American politicians need their special interest groups. He can arrest or harass individual billionaires, but if most of them feel like Putin is more trouble than good then they will get rid of him. And unlike the U.S., getting rid of someone in Russia doesn't mean supporting their opponent in an election.

This is true, but so far russian oligarchs are quite cool with Putin. He is seen as the guarantor of the system that lets them stay rich and powerful, and if he is removed, they are loving _terrified_ that Russia will backslide into the factionalism and possible dissolution of the 90s. That period of chaos let them grab everything they could, yes, but it's also bad for business now .

RuanGacho
Jun 20, 2002

"You're gunna break it!"

I have said in the past that we need to ban access to the American internet from heuristic suspicious behavior from Russia and apparent bot farms,. We very much have the tech to do it and our libertarian obsession with free speech without any social responsibility is causing a lot of this nonsense.

Obviously this needs to be done in the private sector because until recently WH.gov was not spreading lies and misinformation.

i am harry
Oct 14, 2003

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

1) Significantly mentally ill and undiagnosed and untreated (possibly psychopathy, given the father on the 10 most wanted list; definitely suicidal to some degree)

This sort of thing is like a tiny worm that can live in our heads for years, silent and writhing, growing gradually with every hard experience without presenting any external signifiers.

Lugnut Seatcushion
May 4, 2013
Lipstick Apathy

RuanGacho posted:

I have said in the past that we need to ban access to the American internet from heuristic suspicious behavior from Russia and apparent bot farms,. We very much have the tech to do it and our libertarian obsession with free speech without any social responsibility is causing a lot of this nonsense.

Obviously this needs to be done in the private sector because until recently WH.gov was not spreading lies and misinformation.

"our obsession with free speech" lmao

Gumbel2Gumbel
Apr 28, 2010

nwo hatchet man posted:

"our obsession with free speech" lmao

He said free speech without social responsibility you moron

gret
Dec 12, 2005

goggle-eyed freak


Groovelord Neato posted:

it owns that right wing media made a sizable portion of the country so stupid we were susceptible to influence by a foreign power.

What explains the Bernie/Jill/Never Hillary voters on the left?

theflyingorc
Jun 28, 2008

ANY GOOD OPINIONS THIS POSTER CLAIMS TO HAVE ARE JUST PROOF THAT BULLYING WORKS
Young Orc

BarbarianElephant posted:

If Bernie had been the candidate, he'd have got a lot of character assassination, too. I'd have expected to see a lot of sly anti-semitism couched as concern about his atheism. And that dubious affair with his wife and college funding that went nowhere - that would have been blown up until he looked like a sleazy moneygrubbing crook.

Yeah - and this is not to say he definitely wouldn't have won. Because of which states were important, I lean towards "he probably would have". But he'd would have been polling like 30 points lower by election day.

And lol part of the reason the right wing doesn't hate him is because the Russians literally promoted him to right wing Facebook users to further undermine Hillary lol

gret posted:

What explains the Bernie/Jill/Never Hillary voters on the left?
It is good to remember - Bernie supporters voted for Hillary in greater numbers than Hillary supporters voted for Obama in '08.

Anyone who voted for Stein is a moron who should be ignored, tho

theflyingorc fucked around with this message at 16:02 on Oct 9, 2017

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



Havent unpacked this entirely yet but wanted to share the alert i just got:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/09/politics/russia-trump-tower-meeting-new-documents/index.html

Groovelord Neato
Dec 6, 2014


gret posted:

What explains the Bernie/Jill/Never Hillary voters on the left?

more bernie voters voted for clinton than clinton voters voted for obama, dummy.

Chilichimp
Oct 24, 2006

TIE Adv xWampa

It wamp, and it stomp

Grimey Drawer

i CaN't BeLiEvE tHeY mIsSeD aN oPpOrTuNiTy To WrItE iT lIkE tHiS

Fansy
Feb 26, 2013

I GAVE LOWTAX COOKIE MONEY TO CHANGE YOUR STUPID AVATAR GO FUCK YOURSELF DUDE
Grimey Drawer

KillHour posted:

These numbers mean that there are people who think the kneeling is both about calling attention to racism AND disrespecting the military. How the hell do you come to that conclusion?

Racism is so American that protesting it is seen as protesting the country.

Hollismason
Jun 30, 2007
An alright dude.

Phoix posted:

Everyone already knows Stephen Miller is insane but if you want a better picture of just how insane, well strap in.

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/917386131188125696

Wait did this happen like now and not 20 years ago?

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Phoix
Jul 20, 2006




Brace for tweets.

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/917406112281972736

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