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Coldwar timewarp posted:I think by most advanced jets you mean any capable of getting airborne. Their "most advanced" jets (Mig-29s) don't even have the capability to hit ground targets.
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Nov 9, 2017 19:37
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Count Roland posted:It isn't nonsense, and there is a long game. Not like I know what it is, but if safe to assume that "gently caress iran" is part of it somehow. Speaking of stupid plans involving Qatar that are sure to backfire... https://theintercept.com/2017/11/09/uae-qatar-oitaba-rowland-banque-havilland-world-cup/ The UAE wants to steal the world cup by short selling Qatar lol
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Nov 9, 2017 19:41
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Human Grand Prix posted:Their "most advanced" jets (Mig-29s) don't even have the capability to hit ground targets. I think I remember a few getting downed, if they can repurpose a helicopter to be a bomber I am sure they can do it to a Mig-29, which surely has more than wingtip hardpoints.
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Nov 9, 2017 19:49
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How are their Gazelle squadrons holding up? EDIT: I didn't know they were using them. I thought the elite Mig-29 squads just sat around Latakia and Damascus. Human Grand Prix fucked around with this message at 20:00 on Nov 9, 2017 |
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Nov 9, 2017 19:52
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Sinteres posted:My understanding is that they're still using chlorine, which they did continue to use while Obama was president. You didn't see a large scale sarin attack again until Trump was president and confused everyone about where he stood on Syria though. I think it's fair to argue that Obama's response was inadequate, but anyone who thinks Trump's was adequate can't really make that case. To be fair, Russia was far more active in Syria when Trump was president, so he faced more constraints than Obama, but on the other hand we hadn't already been active fighting ISIS for years at the time Obama had to choose whether or not to enforce the red line, so the American people were less ready for another confrontation in the region at the time. The Syrian Regime kept using chlorine because it was not part of the deal to get rid of their WMDs. Which is dumb, but chlorine is a multi use chemical and not just for keeping pool water clean so it wasn't banned. Again, it's stupid. It should have been banned along with the sarin/vx etc. Anyway back to the topic of Saudi Arabia. Remember when they threatened to invade Syria a few years ago to oust Assad? Yeah that turned out to be a whole lot of nothing (probably because the royals know how lovely their military is) I think we are seeing another empty threat with regards to Lebanon. I'll be amazed if SA does anything other than saber rattle. And lol battle hardened Hezbollah would woop their asses.
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Nov 9, 2017 19:56
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Unsubstantiated rumor, but why the gently caress would they even bother with this:- https://twitter.com/alialahmed_en/status/928688091648405504
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Nov 9, 2017 19:57
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khwarezm posted:You know, I've seen this sentiment a lot, but I can't say I've seen particularly compelling evidence that Iran is just brimming with these nice liberal young people who'll turn the country around when the old guard die and make it a Secular, Liberal society in stark contrast to the religious despots in the Gulf. This is a meaningful concern that doesn't have any satisfying answers. I can point to the general posture of Khomenei to allow for more political dissent post-Arab Spring, the election of Rouhani showing that the old attitude of boycott is not effective in bringing change, increasing civil programs, & the very nature of dying of the old guard will necessitate questioning of how orthodoxy will continue. For me, it's a general trend in attitude I've personally encountered in what people feel as they come to the US. (I'm Iranian-American and meet a lot of grad students coming from Iran.) So I agree there's no compelling evidence but the indications of change give me enough optimism. quote:I think people in the west hear about things like the Green movement and assume that represents the whole or a significant portion of the country when that's probably not really true. Iran is still an Islamic Republic that, among other things, has the highest per capita execution rate in the world and will execute people under 18 for such awful crimes as adultery and blasphemy. khwarezm posted:Having an execution rate that high discredits the idea that it's much of a Liberal culture, in my view. Even within the context of the Middle East places like Egypt, which is probably a far worse country to live in right now than Iran, doesn't have such a high rate of officially conducted executions. Most executions, right or wrong, are directly tied to the drug war while there have been significant efforts to decriminalize drug use. I think it's unfair to point to the very high execution rate without acknowledging the vast majority of executions are in response to Iran's largest and most persistent societal crisis. Like any drug war, there's no doubt the government plays both sides of the war to the advantage of some in the government - but that's still not unique for Iran.
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Nov 9, 2017 20:03
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Human Grand Prix posted:How are their Gazelle squadrons holding up? Looked it up, seems like they do have them but I see no confirmed shoot downs. Bad memory I guess.
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Nov 9, 2017 20:07
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asaf posted:Caption this Looks like you got there some gas blowing dicks and three rockets
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Nov 9, 2017 20:24
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Al-Saqr posted:Unsubstantiated rumor, but why the gently caress would they even bother with this:- What does this even mean? Air-land corridor? How does Nusra do this?
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Nov 9, 2017 20:26
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asaf posted:Caption this MARS NEEDS WOMEN
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Nov 9, 2017 20:32
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coathat posted:Congratulations to Yemen on “Worlds Biggest Famine” man this is grim http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41923769
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Nov 9, 2017 20:59
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Don't worry, Macron is in Riyadh right now and he's gonna convince the Saudi to fix everything.
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Nov 9, 2017 21:14
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They're gonna make Macron resign too.
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Nov 9, 2017 21:23
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I'll count that as a fix.
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Nov 9, 2017 21:29
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Brother Friendship posted:I always felt that Assad was acting like a creeping troll with his use of chemical weapons while Obama was in office and sort of danced around the 'red line' to both demoralize the opposition and undermine US authority in the region. I haven't seen that behavior continue since Trump's airstrikes because he is clearly more hot heated and impulsive than Obama but I'll also say that I haven't been following the war as much as before so I could be wrong. The only mention of Chlorine attacks since the strikes that I have seen were in Ghouta in the past month and that seemed to be out of frustration for how the battle in Jobar was going for the regime as opposed to any sort of underlying strategy. To be fair, it's been less than a year since Trump's strike. The regime probably took time to regain its courage after the red line incident under Obama too. Plus I'm sure Russia is leaning on them pretty hard not to blow all the gains they fought for by doing something stupid now that they've basically won.
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Nov 9, 2017 21:37
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Al-Saqr posted:Unsubstantiated rumor, but why the gently caress would they even bother with this:- Seems legit
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Nov 9, 2017 22:24
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Al-Saqr posted:Unsubstantiated rumor, but why the gently caress would they even bother with this:- This matches perfectly with my  thoughts from the other day but it still seems like nonsense. If Saudi jets start bombing loving Lebanon then poo poo has really gotten out of control.
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Nov 9, 2017 22:38
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Sisi isn't keen on KSA airstrikes in Lebanon or Iran. I imagine there's a limit to GCC acceptance of KSA hegemony, and this might be approaching it. I don't know how much of a sweeter deal can be brokered to get others on board, though I'm guessing it would require explicit US assurances. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-sisi/egypts-president-backs-saudi-purge-urges-de-escalation-with-iran-idUSKBN1D833X guidoanselmi fucked around with this message at 23:39 on Nov 9, 2017 |
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Nov 9, 2017 23:37
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This is normal https://twitter.com/ali_h_soufan/status/928790991385038849 Like, Hariri's OWN PARTY is coming out against Saudi and is blaming MbS for taking him hostage. WHAT ARE THEY THINKING?! WHY DO THEY KEEP SHOOTING THEMSELVES IN THE STOMACH LIKE THIS?!!? Like, at this point, they've put themselves in a position where either a war against lebanon will take place within the next couple of weeks, or just like the debacle with Qatar they just handed Iran yet another massive diplomatic victory free of charge. Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 03:15 on Nov 10, 2017 |
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Nov 10, 2017 03:11
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Awesome video of a fascist drone getting shot down in yemen https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnI7ebtIBfI
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Nov 10, 2017 03:15
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so was he there for some diplomatic thing and now he is held hostage and forced to resign and now his country will be hosed to death?
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Nov 10, 2017 03:16
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Dapper_Swindler posted:so was he there for some diplomatic thing and now he is held hostage and forced to resign and now his country will be hosed to death? apparently, there's a rumor floating around twitter about that Khamenei send his envoy Ali Akbar Wilayeti to visit Hariri and Hariri and one of his newspapers praised him after the visit, which is what probably drove his paymasters in Riyadh Insane. Like, I just watched the speech Hariri gave, the guy was always known to be an idiot with zero charisma, but it was as clear as loving day there was a figurative gun pointed to his head in the way he read the speech and it's contents. Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 03:24 on Nov 10, 2017 |
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Nov 10, 2017 03:19
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Seriously, what the gently caress is MbS up to?
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Nov 10, 2017 03:55
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Radio Prune posted:Seriously, what the gently caress is MbS up to? Making it so that the whole world is watching when he gets himself crowned.
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Nov 10, 2017 04:11
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Al-Saqr posted:apparently, there's a rumor floating around twitter about that Khamenei send his envoy Ali Akbar Wilayeti to visit Hariri and Hariri and one of his newspapers praised him after the visit, which is what probably drove his paymasters in Riyadh Insane. If that was literally the only reason they made him resign and imprisoned him... 
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Nov 10, 2017 05:35
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Radio Prune posted:Seriously, what the gently caress is MbS up to? Securing his throne and making a play for regional hegemon.
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Nov 10, 2017 06:51
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^^^He got the TAKING power part right, now let's see how he does with the KEEPING it part.Cat Mattress posted:I'll count that as a fix.  More seriously the Hariri clan's friends in France (like Chirac) probably made Macron a scene about DOING SOMETHING. Toplowtech fucked around with this message at 06:59 on Nov 10, 2017 |
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Nov 10, 2017 06:51
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Xae posted:Securing his throne and making a play for regional hegemon. I think MBS is a product of some larger dynamic within the royal family. Something that has been brewing for a long time. He couldn't rock the boat the way he has alone as a relative newcomer to the entrenched Saudi political scene. I don't know what that dynamic is, but it's clear to me there's a huge split driving recent events, and not much good investigative reporting has been done on what that split is that I've seen. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 08:10 on Nov 10, 2017 |
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Nov 10, 2017 08:08
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Al-Saqr posted:Like, I just watched the speech Hariri gave, the guy was always known to be an idiot with zero charisma, but it was as clear as loving day there was a figurative gun pointed to his head in the way he read the speech and it's contents.
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Nov 10, 2017 09:35
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clearly the middle east needs more wars
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Nov 10, 2017 10:11
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The Saudi military is such dogshit. Like they were literally designed to keep the Saudi population in check and not fight actual wars against other countries. Like the freaking ragtag Houthis have actually conducted successful raids into Saudi Arabia and the Saudis actually think they can take on Hezbollah??
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Nov 10, 2017 10:27
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Volkerball posted:I think MBS is a product of some larger dynamic within the royal family. Something that has been brewing for a long time. He couldn't rock the boat the way he has alone as a relative newcomer to the entrenched Saudi political scene. I don't know what that dynamic is, but it's clear to me there's a huge split driving recent events, and not much good investigative reporting has been done on what that split is that I've seen. Well yeah. His appointment was a naked power grab. How many old princes from the other family lines had their dreams of being king some day stripped away overnight? It's not just that they don't get to be king for a couple years and then die and make room for the next geezer, it's that their sons won't have the prestige of being the son of a king. Consider the grandson of King Fahd who allegedly fled to Iran. He has two "bin"s in his name because his grandfather is the only reason he's important. Is his son going to have three bins? When does a prince stop being a prince? The old system let the crown bounce around between branches of the royal family so that every little princeling had status and might be king some day. King Salman has taken that all away from them. His son is set to reign for two generations and, when he dies, the only king's sons left will be the House of Salman. They're the royal line now and and every other al-Saud is just a potential pretender to the throne. Their only way back to being true royalty is to bring down MBS, so he's letting everyone know just how bad an idea that is. How it got this far, I couldn't say, but my personal theory is "too many princes" (IE they were too busy jockeying against each other to notice the ground collapsing beneath them) combined with some sort of institutional takeover of the Saudi bureaucracy. It's unambiguously a form of regime change and now MBS is trying to show everyone how much better he'll be than the old guard. In twenty years someone will write a really good book about all this intrigue, but gently caress if we can make sense of it now.
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Nov 10, 2017 11:51
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I wonder, how likely is it that it will stick or that someone won't try and off the new crown prince (MBS was it?) or he ruins himself/the country with pointless wars. Also, I know someone mentioned above how bad the SA are at projecting power through their military, but do they have any real military apparatus to speak of? Josef bugman fucked around with this message at 12:11 on Nov 10, 2017 |
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Nov 10, 2017 12:08
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Josef bugman posted:I wonder, how likely is it that it will stick or that someone won't try and off the new crown prince (MBS was it?) or he ruins himself/the country with pointless wars. Well, this started with sidelining the previous crown prince, who controlled the interior ministry, and this more recent "corruption" purge removed the head of the national guard as well as arresting many of the most influential and wealthy figures in the kingdom (also at least one prominent prince seems to have died mysteriously during his arrest and there was that very suspicious helicopter crash). Let's not forget that the previous media purge during the Qatar crisis removed a number of journalists of insufficient loyalty and gave an excuse to shut off Al Jazeera. Saqr could give you a better read on this than I could, but my impression is that MBS's ascension occurred amidst a climate of fear and silence that was strong even by Saudi standards. The fall of princes is too big to hide, but I wouldn't be surprised if there were much broader purges going on within the military and security apparatuses right now. The old system had a balance of power of sorts maintained between powerful princes from various branches of the family who ruled various ministries almost as vassals of the crown. With so many of those powerful ministers under house arrest, their cronies are exposed and vulnerable. MBS is going for total control and with a war on and plenty of real corruption to expose (It's a kleptocracy. Everyone is corrupt.), he has all the pretext he needs to go for broke. If the window for a palace coup is still open, it likely won't be much longer.
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Nov 10, 2017 13:07
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:If that was literally the only reason they made him resign and imprisoned him... Wasn't the reason for the Qatar blockade pretty much a tweet praising Iran?
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Nov 10, 2017 13:08
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mediadave posted:Wasn't the reason for the Qatar blockade pretty much a tweet praising Iran? It was actually a fake speech praising Iran fabricated by UAE hackers iirc.
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Nov 10, 2017 13:46
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Trump's very vocal support of MBS is probably rather helpful too I'd imagine. It definitely gives his moves more legitimacy when hes got Trump tweeting approval after every coup-lite move. I agree its going to be fascinating in ten or twenty years when we hear the full details from the inside of this regime change. MBS is making a whole host of awful aggressive foreign policy decisions currently, but the optimistic outlook on that is hes using them as distractions to unify the Saudi populace behind him in a time of war. And he is making noises about liberalising the religious side of things. So he might turn out to be a step forward for Saudi Arabia. Or the pessimistic outlook is I guess he'll drag them into too many unwinnable conflicts, and piss off too many princes, and we'll get something approaching a civil war/collapse.
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Nov 10, 2017 14:45
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Josef bugman posted:Also, I know someone mentioned above how bad the SA are at projecting power through their military, but do they have any real military apparatus to speak of? They have a lot of high end equipment bought with all that oil money and a great relationship in with the US. In fact, I think they are like one of our top weapons purchasers. However, for whatever they are notoriously terrible at actually waging war. Supposedly the most competent branch is the national guard and that's because there job is putting down uppity citizens and protecting the royals so they probably get the best soldiers. But against the Iraqis in the gulf war, and the Houthis the last few years they have not fared well at all.
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Nov 10, 2017 14:54
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Charliegrs posted:They have a lot of high end equipment bought with all that oil money and a great relationship in with the US. In fact, I think they are like one of our top weapons purchasers. However, for whatever they are notoriously terrible at actually waging war. Supposedly the most competent branch is the national guard and that's because there job is putting down uppity citizens and protecting the royals so they probably get the best soldiers. But against the Iraqis in the gulf war, and the Houthis the last few years they have not fared well at all. Any reason why? Is it just that there isn't much training and they are piss poor at it, bad commanders etc?
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Nov 10, 2017 15:05
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