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axeil posted:https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/929741657058283520 Surely it will wind up being far more than 12 points, I mean, come on, only 12 points for being outed as a pedophile?
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Nov 12, 2017 20:36
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empty whippet box posted:Surely it will wind up being far more than 12 points, I mean, come on, only 12 points for being outed as a pedophile? As much as I would like to believe otherwise, the most important political issue to the vast majority of Americans is "Do you have an R or a D next to your name?", with all of reality being viewed through through the answer to that question. I think you will find that his R makes child molestation not only less bad than anything a democrat has done, but potentially a good thing.
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Nov 12, 2017 20:41
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https://twitter.com/GovHowardDean/status/929724035725918208 via PlumLine, presented without comment or critique quote:This means it is likely that Moore, barring other developments, will stay in the race. And guess what: He could still very well win.
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Nov 12, 2017 20:44
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yes, surely THIS TIME the moderate republicans will see the light
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Nov 12, 2017 20:48
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Paracaidas posted:https://twitter.com/GovHowardDean/status/929724035725918208 WHAT crossover Republicans? Jesus gently caress
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Nov 12, 2017 20:50
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Quorum posted:
Does he have to buy the monogrammed handle at fair market value from Virginia?
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Nov 12, 2017 20:51
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Gubernatorial Kegerator update:
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sirtommygunn posted:Remember when people wanted Trump to win the primary for an easy general win? That's my concern, yeah. Pedophilia - now endorsed by the Great State of Alabama!
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Nov 12, 2017 21:16
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Paracaidas posted:https://twitter.com/GovHowardDean/status/929724035725918208 He's not necessarily wrong, but someone in that thread has it more, uh, right - the money needs to go to supporting what southerners are already down there doing GOTV efforts on the part of Jones (and naturally you can pull from the surrounding states to do this). People definitely do not need to come down here from all over, though, as people here will get mad loving spiteful at non-regional folks telling them what to do.
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Nov 12, 2017 21:29
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GreyjoyBastard posted:Does he have to buy the monogrammed handle at fair market value from Virginia? He had the kegerator installed with personal funds, and the handle was a gift to him from his staff, so no-- and he might even get to deduct the kegerator from his taxes if it's officially a gift to the state rather than to Northam personally! 
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Nov 12, 2017 22:10
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So when does the winner of the AL special election actually take office? I realize it may be subject to recount or what have you, but are we talking within a week, by New Years, sometime early 2018...?
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Nov 13, 2017 05:10
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mercenarynuker posted:So when does the winner of the AL special election actually take office? I realize it may be subject to recount or what have you, but are we talking within a week, by New Years, sometime early 2018...? As soon as they’re sworn in, usually a couple of weeks at most.
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Nov 13, 2017 05:13
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empty whippet box posted:Surely it will wind up being far more than 12 points, I mean, come on, only 12 points for being outed as a pedophile? Many Republicans do not believe things that are told to them by anything they consider to be "the liberal media".
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Nov 13, 2017 06:20
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empty whippet box posted:Surely it will wind up being far more than 12 points, I mean, come on, only 12 points for being outed as a pedophile? Roy Moore is being persecuted like Jesus was persecuted, Satan is the Master of Lies, etc etc
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Nov 13, 2017 06:52
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The average sex scandal causes a drop in the polls of 6.5%, so a 12% drop is pretty heavy. Probably due to the seriousness of the charges and the fact that he totally poo poo the bed trying to defend himself in an interview on FOX News.
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Nov 13, 2017 08:10
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Charlz Guybon posted:The average sex scandal causes a drop in the polls of 6.5%, so a 12% drop is pretty heavy. Yeah the fact that the interview was on Fox means it's much more likely for Alabama voters to have actually seen it.
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Nov 13, 2017 08:40
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theflyingorc posted:Many Republicans do not believe things that are told to them by anything they consider to be "the liberal media". More generally, a mark of a conservative mindset is trusting authorities rather than learning about something from first principles. Something is true because a source they trust tells them its true, not because the underlying facts demonstrate it to be true. Once a source is locked in as authoritative, they will buy just about anything it tells them. Shaking them free of it is almost impossible.
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Nov 13, 2017 12:56
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Deteriorata posted:More generally, a mark of a conservative mindset is trusting authorities rather than learning about something from first principles. Something is true because a source they trust tells them its true, not because the underlying facts demonstrate it to be true. This is actually the mark of being a human FYI. Or do you reason everything you "know" from "first principles"?
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Nov 13, 2017 16:08
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Deteriorata posted:More generally, a mark of a conservative mindset is trusting authorities rather than learning about something from first principles. Something is true because a source they trust tells them its true, not because the underlying facts demonstrate it to be true. Yeah, a big part of the reason I was able to shake my conservatism free is that I never took Fox seriously, they were always obviously horribly biased, and it was before internet shady sites really took off. I did believe the New York Times brought it's terrible liberal bias to everything, though.
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Nov 13, 2017 16:09
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Ogmius815 posted:This is actually the mark of being a human FYI. Or do you reason everything you "know" from "first principles"? If an authority tells me the sky is pink, I don't automatically believe the sky is pink. I go look outside and see for myself to determine if this authority is worth listening to. I process new information in the context of "does this make sense based on what I already know?" Many people do not. This is how you get people believing that Hillary Clinton is running a child sex-slavery ring out of a pizzeria in Washington. Improper appeals to authority are the basis of most conservative ideology.
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Nov 13, 2017 16:42
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Paracaidas posted:https://twitter.com/GovHowardDean/status/929724035725918208 It's not a totally unreasonable position. Feed Jones money by way of GOTV and organizing but stay away from running ads--don't let him get Ossoff-ed. Let the SuperPACs bash the poo poo out of Roy Moore and let the campaign focus on Jones and what he'd do for Alabama, but national figures should stay the gently caress out of Alabama.
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Nov 13, 2017 18:19
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Alter Ego posted:It's not a totally unreasonable position. Feed Jones money by way of GOTV and organizing but stay away from running ads--don't let him get Ossoff-ed. i think what he means is out of staters phonebanking will probably backfire in alabama if you're out of state give money, but don't call voters from new york with a northern accent
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Nov 13, 2017 18:36
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evilweasel posted:i think what he means is out of staters phonebanking will probably backfire in alabama I found nothing more incredibly awkward than phonebanking in NoVa and talking to trade families with hardcore accents and neither of us understanding each other. Definitely felt like I was not helping things. And, again, that was with a phone list targeting Northern Virginia.
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Nov 13, 2017 18:39
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Deteriorata posted:If an authority tells me the sky is pink, I don't automatically believe the sky is pink. I go look outside and see for myself to determine if this authority is worth listening to. I process new information in the context of "does this make sense based on what I already know?" Many people do not. This is how you get people believing that Hillary Clinton is running a child sex-slavery ring out of a pizzeria in Washington. As Ogmius815 already pointed out, people of all kids accept information from authorities with low or no scrutiny all the time. This is normal and not necessarily a bad thing - our daily lives would get pretty ridiculous if we had to subject all new information to extremely high stakes skepticism. As you describe, the typical test for accepting an authoritative account is one of coherence, and it turns out that Fox news, Breitbart, etc. typically cohere with a conservative's views more readily than stuff from CNN, MSNBC, or the NYT. Liberals do the same thing, and the legitimacy of the authority typically only comes into play in post hoc considerations - the coherence of the authority's views with one's own is why people listened to it in the first place. The larger issue with conservative thought is the inappropriate weighting of tradition and currently/previously held beliefs in the face of good evidence to the contrary. Rationality can be defined as the appropriate willingness to reject a currently held belief when presented with good reasons, and conservatives are ideologically predisposed to inappropriate unwillingness. They're not always wrong, but when they are it's typically due to refusing to change their minds when they ought to. The improper appeals to authority are a symptom of this lack of willingness to change their minds, not the cause of it. People in general are willing to embrace any authority or other source of evidence that coheres with their most precious beliefs when those beliefs are challenged, but this is again not a particular problem of conservatives. What you might be getting at is that the reliance by conservatives on these authorities-that-cohere has become pernicious in the sense that these authorities are aware of their importance while also being completely unscrupulous in the use of their situation to further financial and political agendas that do not actually benefit their audience.
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Nov 13, 2017 18:44
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Flip Yr Wig posted:I found nothing more incredibly awkward than phonebanking in NoVa and talking to trade families with hardcore accents and neither of us understanding each other. Definitely felt like I was not helping things. And, again, that was with a phone list targeting Northern Virginia. It doesn't even need to be that stark. I'm a college-aged mixed race Latino man who passes as white, and the areas I most often canvass in locally tend to be poorer black and Latino communities (I don't speak Spanish, unfortunately) who are distrustful of outsiders for good reason. Many people don't want to talk to me, because I'm some dude with a collared shirt and a clipboard, who knows what agency I work for? Left-wing movements desperately need to be built locally from the bottom up, but that requires finding people to start the movement.
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Nov 13, 2017 18:46
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It's funny Howard Dean annihilated his own chances by screaming like a wild man, and very unfunny that Moore might win a seat assaulting a childing. Sucks that Moore also made this into a big fight between the Obama-Hillary-Mitch McConnel Coalition  Would phone-banking be a good thing to do for Doug, or is it better to just send him my dollars as Dean said? I'd probably be sounded out as not a local. Nonsense fucked around with this message at 19:02 on Nov 13, 2017 |
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Nov 13, 2017 18:57
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Nonsense posted:It's funny Howard Dean annihilated his own chances by screaming like a wild man, and very unfunny that Moore might win a seat assaulting a childing. Sucks that Moore also made this into a big fight between the Obama-Hillary-Mitch McConnel Coalition the dean scream happened when dean had already lost the primaries and he knew it but non-politics nerds did not because his strategy was shot: he needed that iowa win because kerry, as a senator from mass, was going to kill it in nh it just got widely mocked and because people like funny explanations more than boring math, people remembered it as the cause not a reaction to his loss
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Nov 13, 2017 19:33
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evilweasel posted:the dean scream happened when dean had already lost the primaries and he knew it but non-politics nerds did not because his strategy was shot: he needed that iowa win because kerry, as a senator from mass, was going to kill it in nh It also (and I'm sure you know but it's worth repeating) happened in a context of a loud and raucous rally, but the media broadcasted the moment out of context and played a feed from a directional mic that minimized the crowd noise.
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Nov 13, 2017 19:39
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Is phonebanking as a carpetbagging Yankee really that bad if all you're doing is contacting Democratic voters and reminding them of the election and their polling location and reinforcing that they should vote, and getting data on who is voting and already voted, going to vote?
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Nov 13, 2017 19:41
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NYT magazine story about harnessing the goon squad (and other, less important groups) in virginia. It's an interesting enough read. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/13/magazine/how-the-resistance-helped-democrats-dominate-virginia.html
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Nov 13, 2017 20:22
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awesmoe posted:NYT magazine story about harnessing the goon squad (and other, less important groups) in virginia. It's an interesting enough read. This article is really pro-read. We have the blueprint for 2018 now thanks to the work of women like Kathryn Sorenson and the volunteers she put together. Some excerpts: quote:To get Reid on the ballot, Sorenson explained, the campaign needed to collect 125 signatures by March. The pop-up groups were happy to help, especially because Sorenson had a pleasant, easygoing appeal, not to mention a broken neck. Within a few weeks, she was given almost 600 names. She couldn’t quite account for how it was done; these groups didn’t have leadership, exactly, or if they did, they had large “steering committees” — and they could be touchy if you used the wrong word or gave one individual too much credit — but they used Facebook and they contacted friends of friends and somehow they got the signatures they needed. And not only that. Representatives from some groups got the required signatures, and then representatives from some other groups materialized to vet those signatures and remove inadvertent out-of-district signatories, and then still other representatives from different or maybe the same groups suggested they might help Sorenson by formatting all of that petition data so they could merge the relevant information with their master voter file. As long as Sorenson was explicit about what she needed, it all seemed to just ... happen. quote:She began to build her own Google Doc as a central storehouse for all the fugitive information. This color-coded document included but was not limited to, in no particular order, the following groups: 31st Street Swing Left; Code Blue; Indivisible Del Ray; Indivisible VA Assembly 42; Network NoVA; NOVANation Coalition; Sister District DC; Sister District Maryland; Swing Left; Together We Will NoVA; Vienna Neighbors United; VOTE MOB VA; WofA (We of Action); ACT Empowered; We ARE the People Who Stand Up; Loudoun 4 Women’s March on Washington; Hunter Mill Huddle; Arlington Huddle Action Network; Neighbors for a Blue Virginia; Ward 3 Democrats; the Resurgent Left; Turn It Blue DC (formerly Swing Left NE DC); Dining for Democracy; #Citizen. Sorenson got a kick out of the names the groups had given themselves. She loved one called the Huddlery. quote:Francesca, the woman from Vienna, cleared a space for me in her cluttered minivan. She’d worked on clean-energy policy, she told me en route, but her entire department was recently eliminated. We passed a new data center across from a data center under construction. She delivered an impassioned monologue as she tried to pay attention to the GPS; she had an air of spiky distraction, as if stopping to scowl at news alerts while watching a TV show. “Now the Klan is out in Charlottesville when they take down the Confederate monuments. Just the other day I went to the website of the Southern Poverty Law Center for the first time in my life. It’s intersectionality. If affluent people like me aren’t caring about Black Lives Matter, well — it kind of opened my eyes. We can’t ever not be engaged again. It’s like the Founding Fathers’ idea of the yeoman government. My progressive friends, they’re on Facebook but they’re not out canvassing and phone-banking. There’s nothing else going on in ’17, and there’s all this pent-up energy.” axeil fucked around with this message at 20:42 on Nov 13, 2017 |
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Nov 13, 2017 20:40
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Zwabu posted:WHAT crossover Republicans? Jesus gently caress You can't win a senate race in Alabama without crossover Republicans.
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Nov 13, 2017 20:41
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quote:In the few conversations Francesca did have, she was invariably friendly and polite, but her pitch about Reid was mostly that he was a great guy; every once in a while she remembered to say that he was in favor of full-day kindergarten districtwide or distance-based tolls on the Dulles Greenway. In her one extended interaction, a young mother began by saying that her family cared above all about full-day kindergarten. She had only ever voted in presidential elections, she admitted, but then managed, over the course of five minutes, to convince herself that she was wrong to do so. Interactions like this are what make canvassing worth it. And every canvasser is nervous and a little awkward when they start. It's legitimately scary the first time you go out. Hell, I still got super nervous every time I went to knock on doors this year. But at the end of the day, Francesca got 1 more vote for her candidate than otherwise would've happened. Enough people do that and folks start winning races that were seen as "unwinnable" Seriously, that article is super inspiring, everyone should go read it. edit: That article also syncs up with what I saw on the ground. I talked to voters who told me who their House of Delegates candidate was as they'd already been canvassed by someone specifically for their House of Delegates race. I've been knocking on doors since 2008 and I have literally never seen that happen. The folks involved in small races deserve a huge share of the credit for last week, they all were incredible. axeil fucked around with this message at 20:49 on Nov 13, 2017 |
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Nov 13, 2017 20:44
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https://twitter.com/AdamParkhomenko/status/930182018255720450 This is before recounts but there you go, that's the official election result.
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Nov 13, 2017 23:18
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As far as I can tell, no it's not. The guy he's quoting has HD-94 down to a 9 vote Republican lead after all tallies were done; that's the total that will be certified, and that person is arguing that historically it's reasonable to expect the Dem to gain more than that margin in a recount. I don't have access to that data, and it sounds plausible, but it's still a projection at this point.
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Nov 13, 2017 23:47
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farraday posted:https://twitter.com/AdamParkhomenko/status/930182018255720450 YES YES YES YES YES YES YES This is an amazing result for us! So loving happy.
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Nov 13, 2017 23:52
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axeil posted:YES YES YES YES YES YES YES  Good job Virginia goons! Can they actually do that? Hold a vote when someone goes to the bathroom, that is?
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Nov 13, 2017 23:55
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Lightning Knight posted:
Oh yeah. A chamber where poo poo is this tight gets wild. Again, this outcome is pending the recounts delivering as we predict. It's possible the forecast is wrong and the republican still wins by a nose. But I'd say chances are decent this is the way it goes.
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Nov 13, 2017 23:57
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So I'm back at my computer and I've got actual thoughts on this now. 1) First, again, still a prediction based on how recounts turn out, so adjust your expectations accordingly. 2) Second, while fly-by-night procedural tricks are definitely a possibility with the House of Delegates locked in deadlock, the Republicans actually have less incentive to do this than Democrats do, because any bill that passes the House still has to pass the Senate, which remains in 31-29 Republican control, and then be signed by a Governor Northam who is surely not interested in signing bullshit. The Senate has also proven more willing to deal with Democrats on certain matters, like redistricting reform. 3) Third, the last time this happened, the Democrats got the Speakership because one of the Republican delegates was late being seated; if that happens again, whichever party has the advantage is going to get the Speakership, and I don't expect as much collegiality in the chamber as there was in 1997. If both parties are at parity when the session is seated in January, I honestly don't know what will happen, as it'll depend on their power sharing negotiations, which I don't doubt are already going on behind the scenes in the event it officially turns out in a tie. We might see a consensus, outside Speaker, or the Governor might bribe one of the weakest Delegates and/or Senators in the Republican caucus with a plum position to sway the balance of power (that's happened before). I don't know, and neither does anybody else! Whee! It's likely to be interesting enough that there might be call for a thread to keep discussing Virginia stuff (and maybe DC/Maryland also) after the elections of this year are over and done, honestly.
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Nov 14, 2017 00:15
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Quorum posted:So I'm back at my computer and I've got actual thoughts on this now. 1) First, again, still a prediction based on how recounts turn out, so adjust your expectations accordingly. 2) Second, while fly-by-night procedural tricks are definitely a possibility with the House of Delegates locked in deadlock, the Republicans actually have less incentive to do this than Democrats do, because any bill that passes the House still has to pass the Senate, which remains in 31-29 Republican control, and then be signed by a Governor Northam who is surely not interested in signing bullshit. The Senate has also proven more willing to deal with Democrats on certain matters, like redistricting reform. 3) Third, the last time this happened, the Democrats got the Speakership because one of the Republican delegates was late being seated; if that happens again, whichever party has the advantage is going to get the Speakership, and I don't expect as much collegiality in the chamber as there was in 1997. If both parties are at parity when the session is seated in January, I honestly don't know what will happen, as it'll depend on their power sharing negotiations, which I don't doubt are already going on behind the scenes in the event it officially turns out in a tie. We might see a consensus, outside Speaker, or the Governor might bribe one of the weakest Delegates and/or Senators in the Republican caucus with a plum position to sway the balance of power (that's happened before). I don't know, and neither does anybody else! Whee! It's likely to be interesting enough that there might be call for a thread to keep discussing Virginia stuff (and maybe DC/Maryland also) after the elections of this year are over and done, honestly. Honestly the best outcome of this is you could probably get an agreement to end partisan gerrymandering through the House and Senate now. That and dedicated funding for Metro seem to be things you can get cross-party agreement on, especially since the GOP VA Senate delegation is going to be trying to not get slaughtered in 2019 now. I'd also support a DMV thread, but a better idea might be USPol - Local/State level.
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Nov 14, 2017 00:22
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farraday posted:https://twitter.com/AdamParkhomenko/status/930182018255720450 Time to get your catheters ready, Dems.
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Nov 14, 2017 00:27
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