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[quote="“Count Roland”" post="“479003303”"] Ah you saw Scahill’s tweet as well. [/quote] I don’t use Twitter. That is a take on s famous quote by Saleh on how he retained power for so long, there’s even a book titled ‘dancing on the heads of snakes’. The metaphor is too apt not go use.
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Dec 4, 2017 16:06
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Squalid posted:I don’t use Twitter. That is a take on s famous quote by Saleh on how he retained power for so long, there’s even a book titled ‘dancing on the heads of snakes’. The metaphor is too apt not go use. Ah yeah I just saw it used elsewhere too, Scahill was just the first I saw use it. Anyway, Al Jazeera has good coverage going of this, both what's happening now and retrospectives on Saleh. What happens to his followers now? I don't really know who they are or what holds them together. Can another leader come in an take Saleh's place?
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Dec 4, 2017 16:13
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Hot drat, the Houthis MOVED. This kicked off, what, two days ago? That's incredibly goddamn fast. People underestimating Houthi ground power seems to be a consistent theme in this war.
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Dec 4, 2017 16:30
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Haystack posted:Hot drat, the Houthis MOVED. This kicked off, what, two days ago? That's incredibly goddamn fast. People underestimating Houthi ground power seems to be a consistent theme in this war. Its because the people advising and training them are hard nails fuckers who know exactly what theyre doing, which cannot be said for their opposition.
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Dec 4, 2017 16:41
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[quote="“Count Roland”" post="“479003697”"] Ah yeah I just saw it used elsewhere too, Scahill was just the first I saw use it. Anyway, Al Jazeera has good coverage going of this, both what’s happening now and retrospectives on Saleh. What happens to his followers now? I don’t really know who they are or what holds them together. Can another leader come in an take Saleh’s place? [/quote] Honestly I doubt anyone could answer these questions with any confidence.
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Dec 4, 2017 16:50
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Haystack posted:Hot drat, the Houthis MOVED. This kicked off, what, two days ago? That's incredibly goddamn fast. People underestimating Houthi ground power seems to be a consistent theme in this war.
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Dec 4, 2017 16:57
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Missile defense remains ineffective, but nobody seems to have told Trump since he's saying Japan will have similar success against North Korea. https://twitter.com/malachybrowne/status/937709737398980608
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Dec 4, 2017 17:17
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Lmao https://twitter.com/alexjrowell/status/937704812770136064
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Dec 4, 2017 17:22
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This is like when the allies spent two years persuading Romania to come in on their side in the First World War, and as soon as Romania finally did Germany invaded and smashed Romania in about a week.
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Dec 4, 2017 17:23
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The Houthis: good at fighting. Less good at propaganda.
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Dec 4, 2017 17:28
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Haystack posted:Hot drat, the Houthis MOVED. This kicked off, what, two days ago? That's incredibly goddamn fast. People underestimating Houthi ground power seems to be a consistent theme in this war. Western backed powers favoring heavy infantry and air support underestimating the power of indigenous light infantry with reams of human intelligence is a consistent theme of every war since like, Korea. Al-Saqr posted:Its because the people advising and training them are hard nails fuckers who know exactly what theyre doing, which cannot be said for their opposition. also kinda this also, and this cannot be ignored or overstated at this point: his royal highness mohammed bin salman bin abdulaziz al saud could gently caress up a wet dream
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Dec 4, 2017 17:33
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mediadave posted:This is like when the allies spent two years persuading Romania to come in on their side in the First World War, and as soon as Romania finally did Germany invaded and smashed Romania in about a week. TBF, I think the Russians were less than enthusiastic compared to the other allies about getting the Romanians involved since the possibility of them buckling to the Germans could create a vast new area they'd have to send men and resources to shore up when they were having enough difficulty with existing fronts. And of course that's exactly what happened.
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Dec 4, 2017 17:35
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Haystack posted:Hot drat, the Houthis MOVED. This kicked off, what, two days ago? That's incredibly goddamn fast. People underestimating Houthi ground power seems to be a consistent theme in this war. It's the good old internationally backed islamist militant group vs. corrupt government military story. They tend to be a lot more motivated and led by actual experienced fighters. Similar to how the remnants of the FSA, Assad, and the Iraqi army did against ISIS.
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Dec 4, 2017 17:35
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That's just trolling.
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Dec 4, 2017 17:35
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"Hey guys, on a scale of 1 to Trump, how stupid would it be to take credit for firing a missile at Abu Dhabi's nuclear plant?" "gently caress it, let's find out! Oh, and throw in a plug Iraq and Syria while you're at it." To be fair, there's lots of big-money reconstruction contracts to be had in Syria and Iraq right now. Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 17:45 on Dec 4, 2017 |
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Dec 4, 2017 17:38
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Ok, taking a step back, will this change the overall strategic situation with Yemen? The blockade is still ongoing an unchallanged, and I don't see that changing just because the Houthis won an internal fight. As dramatic as the last few days were, it seems like the big picture is unchanged.
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Dec 4, 2017 17:41
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Haystack posted:Ok, taking a step back, will this change the overall strategic situation with Yemen? The blockade is still ongoing an unchallanged, and I don't see that changing just because the Houthis won an internal fight. As dramatic as the last few days were, it seems like the big picture is unchanged. Depends on whether the Iranians slap them upside the head for targeting a goddamned nuclear reactor.
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Dec 4, 2017 17:48
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Haystack posted:Ok, taking a step back, will this change the overall strategic situation with Yemen? The blockade is still ongoing an unchallanged, and I don't see that changing just because the Houthis won an internal fight. As dramatic as the last few days were, it seems like the big picture is unchanged. I mean yeah, in the big picture we're a smear of wet moss on a rock flying through space and the entire contents of this thread will be deleted one day and forgotten. But the entire war in Yemen was about returning to power a government strongman and his apparatus that is now decisively destroyed. There's not really an objective remaining anymore for KSA except to kill Yemenis just to kill 'em. Which is totally a way this could proceed forward--god knows the USA was content to do it in Vietnam for years after it was demonstrably pointless.
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Dec 4, 2017 17:50
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Haystack posted:Ok, taking a step back, will this change the overall strategic situation with Yemen? The blockade is still ongoing an unchallanged, and I don't see that changing just because the Houthis won an internal fight. As dramatic as the last few days were, it seems like the big picture is unchanged. I guess the Houthis have shored up their position, but they're still weaker than before seeing as they've lost a significant ally and the legitimacy and contacts he brought to the table. I'm always surprised though the under-reporting of Yemen, compared to Syria. I don't just mean from the mainstream press (but that too) - but with Syria we had armchair generals galore constantly map-making and pontificating. We don't seem to have any of that in Yemen.
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Dec 4, 2017 17:52
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Willie Tomg posted:I mean yeah, in the big picture we're a smear of wet moss on a rock flying through space and the entire contents of this thread will be deleted one day and forgotten. Isn't Hadi the current strongman? Last I checked he's still alive.
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Dec 4, 2017 18:06
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Ikasuhito posted:Isn't Hadi the current strongman? Last I checked he's still alive. Yeah, Hadi's the former/current Yemeni President Saudi Arabia is theoretically backing while maybe (according to Al Jazeera, which obviously has an anti-Saudi bias now) holding him under house arrest. Saleh turning on the Houthis would obviously have been good for the Saudis if it had permanently divided the rebellion though. https://twitter.com/ByYourLogic/status/937708270915149827 Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 18:25 on Dec 4, 2017 |
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Dec 4, 2017 18:19
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Ikasuhito posted:Isn't Hadi the current strongman? Last I checked he's still alive. Yes but what's his path to controlling the country, now? What does victory actually look like?
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Dec 4, 2017 18:25
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Willie Tomg posted:Yes but what's his path to controlling the country, now? What does victory actually look like? that's the thing, the loss of Saleh meant that any and all backdoor or internal paths to victory are lost to the KSA forces, the only thing they can do now is either starve yemen to death or launch a full scale invasion.
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Dec 4, 2017 18:27
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Al-Saqr posted:that's the thing, the loss of Saleh meant that any and all backdoor or internal paths to victory are lost to the KSA forces, the only thing they can do now is either starve yemen to death or launch a full scale invasion. Even as someone who hates what Saudi Arabia's doing there, it's hard to get too excited about this since the Houthis are garbage too (as threatening a civilian nuclear plant helped to drive home), and yeah, it probably just ensures continued suffering for a long time to come since the Saudis probably aren't going to be willing to back down any time soon. Wishing the lovely invaders were at least competent enough to salvage some sort of face saving victory so they could go home and stop killing people already isn't the most idealistic dream, but it might actually have been the best outcome possible for Yemen in the foreseeable future.
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Dec 4, 2017 18:35
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They may be garbage, but I will never call a group out for trying to strike back when they are at such a disadvantage. When a country is at war with you and your civilians, hitting at a major piece of infrastructure is 100% legitimate. Having the moral high ground hasn't meant poo poo so far(they have it in that they are being attacked and bombed and starved, not the other way around), so try and give them a bloody nose. It also shows that the UAE is going to have some fun if they do decide to dance with Iran, at least the Saudis have some strategic depth, The UAE will have a lot of problems with massed rockets I would assume.
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Dec 4, 2017 18:46
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mediadave posted:I'm always surprised though the under-reporting of Yemen, compared to Syria. I don't just mean from the mainstream press (but that too) - but with Syria we had armchair generals galore constantly map-making and pontificating. We don't seem to have any of that in Yemen. The stars sort of aligned to make Syria an interesting war to follow. Yemen, on the other hand, is just a depressing, mostly static siege.
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Dec 4, 2017 18:47
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With Saleh gone as a potentially uniting figure, I wonder what the Houthi endgame even looks like here? With the allowance of AQP to flourish in Yemen, total political control, even through a figurehead, seems completely improbable.Al-Saqr posted:...launch a full scale invasion. Looking at Yemen's map and, yeah, good luck with that. I'm just imagining an armored column advancing to take Sanaa on the orders of armchair general MBS ending like Grozny Pt 1.
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Dec 4, 2017 18:53
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I don't really know what Saleh expected. Like did he think that the Houthi's *wouldn't* have a contingency plan in case the former dictator who did all sorts of wacky and horrible things to stay in control for 33 years turned on them in yet another bid to regain power?
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Dec 4, 2017 18:53
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Coldwar timewarp posted:They may be garbage, but I will never call a group out for trying to strike back when they are at such a disadvantage. When a country is at war with you and your civilians, hitting at a major piece of infrastructure is 100% legitimate. Having the moral high ground hasn't meant poo poo so far(they have it in that they are being attacked and bombed and starved, not the other way around), so try and give them a bloody nose. It also shows that the UAE is going to have some fun if they do decide to dance with Iran, at least the Saudis have some strategic depth, The UAE will have a lot of problems with massed rockets I would assume. I do think hitting back at infrastructure is justified when your own infrastructure is being devastated, and the whole 'I can hit you but how dare you try to hit me' attitude we an our allies often take is insane bullshit the media shouldn't go along with presenting as a reasonable argument to make, but I draw the line at nuclear power plants. Experts seem to think the chance of actually hitting and damaging containment would be minimal, but even threatening to breach containment and release radiation on the surrounding populace is pretty awful.
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Dec 4, 2017 18:55
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Count Roland posted:The Houthis: good at fighting. Less good at propaganda.
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Dec 4, 2017 18:55
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A Buttery Pastry posted:Is it really that bad? Like, is anyone going to do something to them that they wouldn't have done otherwise? At least undermining the economy of their opponents, by making them appear an unsafe investment, has the potential to convince them to back down. If they want to actually draw the US into the war against them instead of a support capacity for the Saudis and taking opportunistic shots at AQAP,, threatening nuclear terrorism with Iranian missiles seems about as good a way to do it as any.
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Dec 4, 2017 18:58
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Sinteres posted:I do think hitting back at infrastructure is justified when your own infrastructure is being devastated, and the whole 'I can hit you but how dare you try to hit me' attitude we an our allies often take is insane bullshit the media shouldn't go along with presenting as a reasonable argument to make, but I draw the line at nuclear power plants. Experts seem to think the chance of actually hitting and damaging containment would be minimal, but even threatening to breach containment and release radiation on the surrounding populace is pretty awful. This isn’t how nuclear power plants work hth
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Dec 4, 2017 19:00
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Sinteres posted:I do think hitting back at infrastructure is justified when your own infrastructure is being devastated, and the whole 'I can hit you but how dare you try to hit me' attitude we an our allies often take is insane bullshit the media shouldn't go along with presenting as a reasonable argument to make, but I draw the line at nuclear power plants. Experts seem to think the chance of actually hitting and damaging containment would be minimal, but even threatening to breach containment and release radiation on the surrounding populace is pretty awful. Not how it works. And even then, most containment domes are rated at taking a direct hit from an aircraft.
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Dec 4, 2017 19:02
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Moatman posted:This isn’t how nuclear power plants work hth I remember everyone confidently saying the same thing in the Fukushima thread too.
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Dec 4, 2017 19:02
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Sinteres posted:I remember everyone confidently saying the same thing in the Fukushima thread too. .....and its been continuously and steadily overblown. Trust me, that's not a good example.
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Dec 4, 2017 19:04
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CommieGIR posted:Not how it works. And even then, most containment domes are rated at taking a direct hit from an aircraft. did u know that a lot of nuclear power plants just store spent fuel on site? how does abu dhabi handle it? No, I don't know either! I'm sure it'll be fine.
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Dec 4, 2017 19:09
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Moatman posted:This isn’t how nuclear power plants work hth It has the word "nuclear" in it, so the facts really don't matter as much as the perception. I mean, perception beats facts for almost everything, but that goes like 500% for anything that involves nuclear power. A fire aboard an aircraft carrier can end up classified as a nuclear incident if the carrier is either nuclear-powered or carrying nuclear weapons in its magazines, even if the fire has nothing to do with them. Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 19:15 on Dec 4, 2017 |
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Dec 4, 2017 19:13
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:did u know that a lot of nuclear power plants just store spent fuel on site? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bu1YFshFuI4 These sort of spent fuel casks are used worldwide now. And that's from 1978, multiple improvements have been made. And that's before we get to the idea that a missile hitting a spent fuel cask is going to cask it to burn and actually release isotopes into the air. CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 19:15 on Dec 4, 2017 |
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Dec 4, 2017 19:13
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Try explaining to the average member of the public (any public) that a missile hitting a nuclear power station is No Big Deal. Go on, try it.
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Dec 4, 2017 19:18
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Try explaining to the average member of the public (any public) that a missile hitting a nuclear power station is No Big Deal. Go on, try it. I understand that, trust me. But when you double down and point to Fukushima, best buckle up.
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Dec 4, 2017 19:18
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