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to me it's not the probability of mass riots happening, that isnt going to happen, as people said, any form of arab civil society is dead and Arabs by and large are under military genocidal occupation, it's the fact that now Iran will catch the windfall of propaganda and prestige which will now fill the massive gaping historical hole the arab fascist regimes have left for them. It's the arab regimes essentially putting themselves firmly in Israels side with no more room for negotiation on what side of history they're on. Where we go from now, who knows, but one thing is for sure, the arab fascist order have given Iran a historic victory in the fight to become a regional hegemon, they've given them the Palestinian cause. They have undermined themselves historically in a very big way, because now there's no more room for maneuver and disguising themselves. Who knows what will happen next, but it's definitely over the medium long term not going to be good news for anyone. Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 05:24 on Dec 7, 2017 |
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Dec 7, 2017 05:20
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Count Roland posted:I've been reading this opinion elsewhere too, and I guess I have a hard time swallowing it. It is recognizing all of Jerusalem as the capital that is the issue, specifically also the old city (I assume everyone knows why this is important). Moving the embassy is a part of that, but that was a line that the US never crossed even if it showed obvious favoritism. This is the period at the end of a very long sentence. As far as the Arab world goes, we will have to see but I could see Iran and its allies become the only force willing actually openly contest what is occurring. SA/Egypt/Jordan don't seem interested in actively interested in opposing Israel, and the US now won't even really keep the pretense of neutrality, which means Iran (and a lesser extent Turkey) is the last man standing.
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Dec 7, 2017 05:43
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Al-Saqr posted:Who knows what will happen next, but it's definitely over the medium long term not going to be good news for anyone. That's not true. Bibi will be booted, Avi Gabbay becomes PM. Seeing an opportunity to solve domestic issues, he reaches out to to Iran's Khomenei through a backchannel to come up with a historic solution to achieve a lasting peace. Nearing the end of his years and reflecting on Iran's young generation, he bows his head in realization that this opportunity may assure the Islamic Republic security in perpetuity, from within and without. In time, talks materialize guaranteeing a two party solution with full Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank in exchange for security assurances. When news hits Saudi royalty, the expected response doesn't come. A week prior MBS had an untimely death, not at the hands of his family or countrymen, but a strange incident where a mechanized(?) giant squid rose from the depths to swallow his yacht. After palace intrigue and a heart attack, Bin Talal becomes Saudi King. His response was "gently caress You, Trump" to finally resolve his Twitter conflict - he proceeded to work with all other middle eastern nations to develop a secular confederation of states. ...and then I woke up and remembered 
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Dec 7, 2017 05:51
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hellworld baby
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Dec 7, 2017 07:07
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Al-Saqr posted:to me it's not the probability of mass riots happening, that isnt going to happen, as people said, any form of arab civil society is dead and Arabs by and large are under military genocidal occupation, it's the fact that now Iran will catch the windfall of propaganda and prestige which will now fill the massive gaping historical hole the arab fascist regimes have left for them. It's the arab regimes essentially putting themselves firmly in Israels side with no more room for negotiation on what side of history they're on. Where we go from now, who knows, but one thing is for sure, the arab fascist order have given Iran a historic victory in the fight to become a regional hegemon, they've given them the Palestinian cause. They have undermined themselves historically in a very big way, because now there's no more room for maneuver and disguising themselves. Since Arab regimes have used Palestine as a way to derive legitimacy, if they let go...what does that leave? Does the king of Jordan have much to offer his citizens when he lets Israel take Jerusalem? Is the threat of American bombing, JaN, and IS enough?
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Dec 7, 2017 09:19
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Well, its an intifada now i guess
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Dec 7, 2017 10:37
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That's Hamas though. When do they ever not call for intifada? If Fatah says something then maybe there'll be an uprising, but it's not like Hamas can really do much since they're all already in a massive prison (at least the Gazan ones) and it's not like Sisi is going to help them.
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Dec 7, 2017 11:18
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Mosul Eye revealed his identity. https://apnews.com/cdc0567f7bf34958b914b15869392a84?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP
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Dec 7, 2017 13:22
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Who could have guessed that the most cogent argument against an American hyperpower was "anyone could grow up to be president?"
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Dec 7, 2017 14:03
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Count Roland posted:I've been reading this opinion elsewhere too, and I guess I have a hard time swallowing it. I've seen this very same argument from people in the ME. Trump is very transparently displaying a US bias that everyone knows exists, and has existed for a long time. In a lot of ways, it's validation. He's being honest in his bigotry with this move. There's going to be long term consequences from US policy being guided by such clear anti-Islamic prejudice, with increasingly negative effects for the US, but I don't necessarily think the recognition of Jerusalem is going to spark a whole new phase of middle eastern destabilization on its own. We'll see. Sinteres, I haven't had time to do much more than shitpost between work and finals, but I haven't forgotten your post on the Gaddafi/Saleh thing. I'll try to get to it this weekend.
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Dec 7, 2017 14:34
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Coldwar timewarp posted:Since Arab regimes have used Palestine as a way to derive legitimacy, if they let go...what does that leave? Does the king of Jordan have much to offer his citizens when he lets Israel take Jerusalem? Is the threat of American bombing, JaN, and IS enough? Every Arab dictator has worked on a very simple premise for decades:- I am in power, if you oppose me, I will kill you all. The Arab spring was people calling that bluff thinking that they're not THAT insane, well it turns out they were.. legitimacy isn't really a thing with these guys it's cold blooded fascism through and through.
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Dec 7, 2017 16:06
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Count Roland posted:I've been reading this opinion elsewhere too, and I guess I have a hard time swallowing it. Over the last years the Oslo Accords have been buried [or settled] slice by slice by the Israelis, or especially Netanjahu and his allied factions. Not enough to completely lose hope though: I think concerned factions in Europe and the USA were keeping up pressure and were waiting for a weak Israeli moment to bring home the Oslo Accords or at least something that had the shape of it. Now the embassy move was a clear sign that Europe and the USA are no longer a political block and also gently caress the Oslo Accords. Everyone can now draw a line under their efforts and do a final account; start planning from scratch for the times ahead. And although the Arab world in general does not seem that much invested into the Israel ./. Paelestine conflict anymore -or are even aligned with the Israelis like Saudi Arabia seems to be- you at least now have a group of people who have been completely hosed over and have exactly zero to lose. I bet in a decade or so, whatever hapened in it, a bunch of wise guys will describe it as "but everyone should have seen THAT coming". How bad it will be will mostly depend on how Israel handles the situation from here on and on a few other parameters like what Iran will do and so on but certainly not on what Europe or the USA will do. (Despite hamfisted moves like plowing whole regions and remember how that worked out the last few times.)
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Dec 7, 2017 17:33
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None of the leaders who fought against Israel in the past is still around, the "new" generation of Arab dictators is one that grew up with Israel being a thing that exist. It was a convenient scapegoat to distract the population from their problems at home, but not something that they personally cared about. So it shouldn't be a surprise that they're ready to drop it; especially since nowadays there's a new convenient scapegoat: the terrorists, who are of course and obviously backed by the Nefarious Iran. Israel and the Arab dictatorships can all be allied under Uncle Sam's umbrella for a great righteous war against the Perfidious Persians. Hatred of the Shia will replace hatred of the Jews as a substitution target for anger against the government, and to that end a book entitled "Protocols of the Elders of Iran" will appear in the near future.
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Dec 7, 2017 17:37
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Just from a process perspective, the embassy move will clarify a couple of minor issues that have dogged US diplomacy in Israel. It will strengthen the US ambassador's position by presumably ending the unhelpful division between the embassy in Tel Aviv and the Consulate in Jerusalem. Because of the "special status" of Jerusalem, the consulate enjoyed a unique "co-equal" independence from the embassy, independent of the US ambassador's oversight and influence. Now and previously, the consulate independently served as representative to the Palestinian Authority. That independence, while never causing a public rift with the embassy, was a source of private tension between Jerusalem and the ambassador in Tel Aviv. Returning full oversight to the US ambassador as sole and senior US representative will end that tension. And hopefully clarify the US diplomatic voice in Israel. It may be that the consulate will continue to serve as representative to the PA, but under the ambassador's authority and influence, which the status quo lacks. Secondly, it brings the embassy closer to their Israeli counterparts, currently well over an hour away. It may seem like a small thing but immediacy in diplomacy is valued for good reason. However it plays out, I doubt the embassy can simply pick up and move to either the cramped old (1912) US Consulate General building or any other US facility in Jerusalem. Neither would be architecturally and technically suitable to the work done in an embassy. A new facility will need to be constructed, at enormous cost, on a suitable premise that does not yet exist (the land in Jerusalem previously earmarked for the embassy is likely no longer suitable for architectural security reasons). I would figure 5 years at the earliest.
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Dec 7, 2017 18:30
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https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/938880238976716800 Pretty big contrast with his attitude before this.
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Dec 7, 2017 22:23
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Al-Saqr posted:Every Arab has worked on a very simple premise for centuries:- I am in power, if you oppose me, I will kill you all. (USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST) (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Dec 7, 2017 23:01
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Lady Morgaga posted:FTFY Good post/title combination.
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Dec 7, 2017 23:05
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Lady Morgaga posted:FTFY lol who brought in the idiot? hey buddy you might wanna check out forums more to your liking like stormfront or something.
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Dec 7, 2017 23:06
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Cat Mattress posted:None of the leaders who fought against Israel in the past is still around, the "new" generation of Arab dictators is one that grew up with Israel being a thing that exist. It was a convenient scapegoat to distract the population from their problems at home, but not something that they personally cared about. So it shouldn't be a surprise that they're ready to drop it; especially since nowadays there's a new convenient scapegoat: the terrorists, who are of course and obviously backed by the Nefarious Iran. Israel and the Arab dictatorships can all be allied under Uncle Sam's umbrella for a great righteous war against the Perfidious Persians. there's already stuff spreading in at least the American Christian Apocalypse Cultist community that Iran wants to destroy the world in general and Israel in particular to bring about the Kingdom of God which is kinda funny because that's part of the Christian Cultist plan, the bullet points are just in a slightly different order
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Dec 7, 2017 23:13
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Al-Saqr posted:lol who brought in the idiot? hey buddy you might wanna check out forums more to your liking like stormfront or something. Why would I go to stormfront? I get all the fascist rhetoric right here from you.
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Dec 7, 2017 23:19
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https://twitter.com/ahmed/status/938855010544349185 That's cute.
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Dec 7, 2017 23:24
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Russian MoD map of Syria, with some relevant information on the south-east Deir Ez-Zor area: https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/938782131739795458 quote:Russian Defence Ministry announces end of Russian Forces mission to destroy IS, group no longer controls any settlements or districts https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/7i6xnb/russian_defence_ministry_announces_end_of_russian/ Red area is marked as "units of Eastern Euphrates Tribes". Close-up map: https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/938782543310028801 quote:IS lost its last bastions on Western Bank of Euphrates, pockets of resistance likely exist & will be dealt with by Syrian Government Forces Russia's jumping the gun a bit on the "ISIS is done" bandwagon since there's still the Dara'a pocket area near the Golan, the Yarmouk camp suburb in Damascus, the ISIS-HTS fighting near Hama and those "pockets of resistance" (aka whatever desert ISIS still "controls").
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Dec 7, 2017 23:24
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Would be hella sweet if Putin would do a big mission accomplished ceremony on that aircraft carrier of theirs, preferably with a cloud of that pitch black exhaust bellowing out in the background.
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Dec 7, 2017 23:42
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This might explain why its on display in the Abu Dhabi Louvre.
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Dec 7, 2017 23:51
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https://twitter.com/NPR/status/938571509949333504
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Dec 8, 2017 01:14
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Lady Morgaga posted:Why would I go to stormfront? I get all the fascist rhetoric right here from you. probably because they're more receptive to your antagonistic, lazy shitposting. If you just want to call someone out with some genuinely banal posting maybe CSPAM is more your speed.
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Dec 8, 2017 01:28
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Lady Morgaga posted:Why would I go to stormfront? I get all the fascist rhetoric right here from you. Please tell me more about how all Arabs are nothing but bloodthirsty, power-hungry murderers. Totally not racist. Glad for this insightful commentary about the depths of savagery from the subhuman Musselman. One day the Mohamadens will see the glorious light of civilization when the US comes to bring them Democracy.
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Dec 8, 2017 03:39
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GreyjoyBastard posted:there's already stuff spreading in at least the American Christian Apocalypse Cultist community that Iran wants to destroy the world in general and Israel in particular to bring about the Kingdom of God You say funny, I say "exactly like every other thing Christian cultists complain about in America".
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Dec 8, 2017 04:03
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Well there are worse Pr moves. Cheaper ones most of them.
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Dec 8, 2017 07:42
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Kind of a lousy painting anyways. Dark and drab. I understand why he did it ('our Louvre needs a Leonardo too!') but this MBS guy is really a fan of doing everything at once regardless of if these various things conflict with each other. Will any conservatives over there actually be ticked off by his displaying this picture of one of the prophets?
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Dec 8, 2017 14:27
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Mozi posted:Kind of a lousy painting anyways. Dark and drab. I'm interested to know what the hardline conservatives think of MBS, and the way KSA is going generally. Having just read The Siege of Mecca (thanks Volkerball, for the great recomendation), I learned that at least back then there was a huge amount of resistance to things like TVs, women being shown in advertisements, foreigners in the country and so forth. Al-queda and simlar groups explicitly say foreign (ie US) soldiers on Saudi soil is a major motivating factor. Now we have MBS saying he's going to move Saudi Islam itself, making it more tolerant. That is a direct challenge to conservatives of all stripes, not just the violent ones. Does KSA still have this hardline element in its society?
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Dec 8, 2017 14:51
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MBS is brash enough to just execute all the naysayers instead of attempting to appease them.
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Dec 8, 2017 15:01
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Count Roland posted:I'm interested to know what the hardline conservatives think of MBS, and the way KSA is going generally. MBS doesnt want a Tolerant Islam, He wants an Islam Approved for by dictators and america and Israel, designed by Mckinsey. One that's specifically custom tailored to murder their own societies and remove any possible self examination, or liberatory or political engagement elements to it. Saudi Money and fascism in general destroyed any islamic scholarship in the wider muslim world or the posibility for a broad based politically engaged democratic transition for islamists, since every time they do so they are killed by KSA and their allies. It's how you make people stop engaging or caring about other muslims and what happens to them like the palestinians. and it will be one that is geared towards blind sectarian againt Iran. It will still be a nightmare dictatorship completely intolerant of any kind of human expression. It's really easy to claim you want a more tolerant islam when you basically murdered every other tolerant islamic thought and other tolerant muslims because they wouldnt bow to you 100% Also Hardline wahhabists are just imams who serve the sultan, they worship him and him alone so I would not expect any kind of serious action from them. Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 19:02 on Dec 8, 2017 |
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Dec 8, 2017 18:49
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Al-Saqr posted:MBS doesnt want a Tolerant Islam, He wants an Islam Approved for by dictators and america and Israel, designed by Mckinsey. One that's specifically custom tailored to murder their own societies and remove any possible self examination, or liberatory or political engagement elements to it. Saudi Money and fascism in general destroyed any islamic scholarship in the wider muslim world or the posibility for a broad based politically engaged democratic transition for islamists, since every time they do so they are killed by KSA and their allies. It's how you make people stop engaging or caring about other muslims and what happens to them like the palestinians. and it will be one that is geared towards blind sectarian againt Iran. It will still be a nightmare dictatorship completely intolerant of any kind of human expression. like, I don't really disagree with your broader point, but quote:designed by Mckinsey is weirdly specific, I assume you basically mean MBS wants any 'reforms' to be skin-deep and friendly towards corporatism and investment
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Dec 8, 2017 19:12
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Al-Saqr posted:MBS doesnt want a Tolerant Islam, He wants an Islam Approved for by dictators and america and Israel, designed by Mckinsey. One that's specifically custom tailored to murder their own societies and remove any possible self examination, or liberatory or political engagement elements to it. Saudi Money and fascism in general destroyed any islamic scholarship in the wider muslim world or the posibility for a broad based politically engaged democratic transition for islamists, since every time they do so they are killed by KSA and their allies. It's how you make people stop engaging or caring about other muslims and what happens to them like the palestinians. and it will be one that is geared towards blind sectarian againt Iran. It will still be a nightmare dictatorship completely intolerant of any kind of human expression. Ok, that all makes sense. The example I'm thinking of, the siege of mecca, involved bedoin tibsemen. They viewed the sultan and most immams as part of the problem and worthy of death. They represented a very extreme fringe of course, but they were numerous and well trained enough to mount a very serious attack. They flew completely below the radar before the attack, and prompted a sort of conservative crackdown to appease hardline conservatives. I've got to think there are still elements of saudi society that do not approve of what MBS is doing, that don't want more rights for women or an alliance with the US or Israel.
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Dec 8, 2017 19:13
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GreyjoyBastard posted:like, I don't really disagree with your broader point, but Yeah I was just making a general rhetorical jab since many of their 'reforms' and the vision 2030 are usually projects are designed by companies like Deloitte, McKinsey and consulting companies like that. not by a serious look at how to develop a capable country with strong societal or innovation foundations to actually compete in the world, it's just a giant corporatist grift and feudalism.
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Dec 8, 2017 19:34
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Count Roland posted:I've got to think there are still elements of saudi society that do not approve of what MBS is doing, that don't want more rights for women or an alliance with the US or Israel. There definitely are, and anyone who thinks MBS is going to skate on everything he's trying to do without facing any challenges is crazy. He's tearing up the social contract of the last few decades in his country, and sticking the knife in relatives in the process. He's top dog at home, and winning popularity contests in the international media for now, but he's making himself a lot of enemies. That doesn't necessarily mean he's doomed to fail (except in the sense that global warming probably means the region is doomed as a whole), because some leaders do succeed in radically transforming their societies, but resistance will emerge one way or another. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 20:00 on Dec 8, 2017 |
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Dec 8, 2017 19:57
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GreyjoyBastard posted:like, I don't really disagree with your broader point, but It's specific because his reforms were specifically designed by Mckinsey. Well, "MBB", but close enough. https://www.washingtonpost.com/outl...0879_story.html https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2016/05/11/saudi-arabias-mckinsey-reshuffle/
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Dec 8, 2017 20:03
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Another big move. https://twitter.com/MiddleEastEye/status/939230132119769091
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Dec 8, 2017 21:34
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the popes toes posted:Just from a process perspective, the embassy move will clarify a couple of minor issues that have dogged US diplomacy in Israel. Uh welcome to the thread, that's a great opening post. You guys read that article about the reveal of who Mosul Eye was? Its real good: https://apnews.com/cdc0567f7bf34958b914b15869392a84
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