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Konstantin posted:I wouldn't get too excited, not every Republican is a literal child molester with multiple credible women willing to testify to that fact on the record. Strange would have won easily. Alabama was a 30 point swing. 538 just did a back of the napkin take on the factors and only attributed 10 points to the fact that Republicans pushing a child molester. If every state with less than a 20 point red lean is a tossup or better, then Democrats (and Americans as a whole) have every reason to get excited.
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Dec 13, 2017 16:51
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axeil posted:Mississippi should absolutely be targeted next year. When Wicker won it last time he got 57% of the vote. Democratic recruiting was already absolutely bonkers, like 2-3x the good challengers that you would get even in a year that looked really promising. After this they may have a candidate everywhere, because even if you can't win in a straight up fight as Generic Democrat in a D+15 wave in a state, you've got a shot at them nominating an unelectable pedophile. It's not like the DNC didn't know that more challengers is better, it's just hard to get good people to spend months on an unpaid job that has a good chance of going nowhere, usually. Now, uh, people are motivated. I wouldn't be shocked if there was a serious candidate even in Utah and Wyoming.
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Dec 13, 2017 16:53
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Your Boy Fancy posted:Actually, take a look at the recent state level elections in Oklahoma. Democrats are winning in Trump districts. I would love to be wrong. I suspect we're going to see improvements in state legislatures EVERYWHERE, but I doubt we'll seize the whole thing. But I would love to be wrong!
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Dec 13, 2017 16:54
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Kaal posted:Alabama was a 30 point swing. 538 just did a back of the napkin take on the factors and only attributed 10 points to the fact that Republicans pushing a child molester. If every state with less than a 20 point red lean is a tossup or better, then Democrats (and Americans as a whole) have every reason to get excited. Don't even need it to be a tossup: Moore is unlikely to be the only unelectable weirdo that wins a Republican primary, and if there's one thing Steve Bannon does, it's double down no matter what. He's still going to be supporting nutters, and one of those might win.
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Dec 13, 2017 16:55
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theflyingorc posted:I would love to be wrong. I suspect we're going to see improvements in state legislatures EVERYWHERE, but I doubt we'll seize the whole thing. I doubt we are, like, going to capture the Oklahoma legislature. But if we can improve even in Oklahoma, we can take the legislatures in purpler states. And then (with some luck) the Supreme Court will have just banned gerrymandering sometime in the first half of 2018 so I guess we are constitutionally required to immediately fairly redistrict all of those states. Wouldn't want to upset the Supreme Court by waiting until 2020!
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Dec 13, 2017 16:58
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My state, Texas, is absolutely in play at this point. Ted Cruz is disliked by a lot of people, including Republican voters in this state, and has been running 50/50 on the generic ballot for a year now. A democrat in Texas would completely upend the game. The Latinx vote will be crucial, but ousting Ted Cruz is no longer the pipe dream it once was.
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Dec 13, 2017 17:10
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ComposerGuy posted:My state, Texas, is absolutely in play at this point. Ted Cruz is disliked by a lot of people, including Republican voters in this state, and has been running 50/50 on the generic ballot for a year now. It will come down to turnout 
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Dec 13, 2017 17:11
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evilweasel posted:Don't even need it to be a tossup: Moore is unlikely to be the only unelectable weirdo that wins a Republican primary, and if there's one thing Steve Bannon does, it's double down no matter what. He's still going to be supporting nutters, and one of those might win. If Kelli Ward wins the AZ-SEN primary and Kristen Sinema is her opponent I'm gonna move that race into "likely Dem". Kelli Ward is a Christine O'Donnell class crazy person. edit: MS-SEN's filing deadline for the primary is March 30th. I expect Obama\Perez\the Party are all begging Ray Mabus to declare his run right now. axeil fucked around with this message at 17:15 on Dec 13, 2017 |
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Dec 13, 2017 17:11
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ComposerGuy posted:My state, Texas, is absolutely in play at this point. Ted Cruz is disliked by a lot of people, including Republican voters in this state, and has been running 50/50 on the generic ballot for a year now. With the way Texas demographics are drifting, it's possible that seat could go blue more-or-less permanently.
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Dec 13, 2017 17:12
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ComposerGuy posted:My state, Texas, is absolutely in play at this point. Ted Cruz is disliked by a lot of people, including Republican voters in this state, and has been running 50/50 on the generic ballot for a year now. I'm pumped, there's going to be a lot of interesting places to watch in the next year.
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Dec 13, 2017 17:13
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axeil posted:
e: I'm dumb as hell and don't know basic facts about how our election system works. Here's the PVI for House Seats  And then Democrat seats: 
sirtommygunn fucked around with this message at 17:23 on Dec 13, 2017 |
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Dec 13, 2017 17:13
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ComposerGuy posted:My state, Texas, is absolutely in play at this point. Ted Cruz is disliked by a lot of people, including Republican voters in this state, and has been running 50/50 on the generic ballot for a year now. I think Beto O'Rourke's a good candidate, too. Was real impressed with the townhall I went to recently. Supports medicare for all, seems as good or better than Generic Dem everywhere else except guns, where he waffles a bit but hey, it's Texas. If we lose Texas it won't be because "GOD gently caress THESE MILQUETOASTE CENTRISTS"
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Dec 13, 2017 17:14
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sirtommygunn posted:Here's the PVI for House Seats up for grabs in 2018 uh, all house seats are 'up for grabs' in 2018, the whole house gets elected every 2 years. I don't know what those seats specifically are, but there are almost certainly over a hundred below R+15, not just the ones you have listed there.
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Dec 13, 2017 17:15
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evilweasel posted:uh, all house seats are 'up for grabs' in 2018, the whole house gets elected every 2 years. I don't know what those seats specifically are, but there are almost certainly over a hundred below R+15, not just the ones you have listed there. Oh sorry Im a dumbass. e: those are seats with retiring incumbents, maybe I'll learn to read some day.
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Dec 13, 2017 17:16
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sirtommygunn posted:Here's the PVI for House Seats up for grabs in 2018, starting with current Republican seats: I'd sort them by PVI, every House seat is up next year and I'm not sure what your argument is here w.r.t the PVI.
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Dec 13, 2017 17:17
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Not in a position to double check right now but it's possible those are the seats with no incumbent seeking re election? e. definitely saving all the sexy charts and graphs for the 2018 thread op though
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Dec 13, 2017 17:18
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Quorum posted:Not in a position to double check right now but it's possible those are the seats with no incumbent seeking re election? Oh yeah, that might be it.
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Dec 13, 2017 17:23
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axeil posted:I'd sort them by PVI, every House seat is up next year and I'm not sure what your argument is here w.r.t the PVI. No argument, just wanted to add some info that I spectacularly hosed up in delivering.
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Dec 13, 2017 17:24
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sirtommygunn posted:No argument, just wanted to add some info that I spectacularly hosed up in delivering. It's okay! Sharing info is good! 
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Dec 13, 2017 17:25
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Knock on wood but I'm pretty bullish about the Dems' ability to pick up the Senate in 2018. The house is a whole different matter given how much districts were absolutely hosed in in the wake of the 2010 census, but who knows.
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Dec 13, 2017 17:34
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Sydin posted:Knock on wood but I'm pretty bullish about the Dems' ability to pick up the Senate in 2018. The house is a whole different matter given how much districts were absolutely hosed in in the wake of the 2010 census, but who knows. Gerrymandering increases vulnerability to strong wave elections.
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Dec 13, 2017 17:36
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Spiritus Nox posted:I think Beto O'Rourke's a good candidate, too. Was real impressed with the townhall I went to recently. Supports medicare for all, seems as good or better than Generic Dem everywhere else except guns, where he waffles a bit but hey, it's Texas. If we lose Texas it won't be because "GOD gently caress THESE MILQUETOASTE CENTRISTS" Yeah the guns thing is the least of things. He's got the right viewpoints on almost literally everything and he's likable, which puts him in a great position vs. loving Ted Cruz.
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Dec 13, 2017 17:38
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theflyingorc posted:Gerrymandering increases vulnerability to strong wave elections. Yeah. To explain for people that might not get it: how gerrymandering works is that you distribute your votes so that you win comfortably, but not excessively. If you're a Republican gerrymandering a state, you want it to look like D+80, R+5-10, R+5-10, etc. R+15 and above is just wasted votes you could use to swing one more district if you packed a few more Democrats into the massively democratic districts. Also, gerrymanders decay over time (though that decay may have been taken into account and the map designed to hold up even given expected decay), meaning the districts tend to trend towards the norm. So what that means is, in the event of a wave election, suddenly all those safe R+10 seats collapse and there are massive losses everywhere because you have far less R+15 and above seats than you normally would. You traded in your R+15 seats for a few more R+10 seats, and then lost them all.
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Dec 13, 2017 17:43
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Huh, interesting. Thanks.
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Dec 13, 2017 17:47
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I mean, taking the house and senate back next year would be nice, but look at the other races. If the building wave is big enough that we can win statewide in R+15 places like Alabama, that makes all but ~3 of the 36 governor's races competitive in 2018. We could potentially pick up like 10-15+ governorships if we're lucky.
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Dec 13, 2017 17:49
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DACK FAYDEN posted:This map needs a post-Franken update. It wouldn't change it. Franken retiring doesn't trigger a special election under Minnesota law, the Governor selects his replacement to serve out the rest of the term. Election will go forward as normal in 2018.
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Dec 13, 2017 18:22
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Redeye Flight posted:It wouldn't change it. Franken retiring doesn't trigger a special election under Minnesota law, the Governor selects his replacement to serve out the rest of the term. Election will go forward as normal in 2018. There wasn't an election in 2018 before Franken's retirement. His next election would have been 2020.
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Dec 13, 2017 18:26
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evilweasel posted:There wasn't an election in 2018 before Franken's retirement. His next election would have been 2020. gently caress me, you're right, I got House and Senate terms confused again.
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Dec 13, 2017 18:52
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jklfdsa posted:I mean, taking the house and senate back next year would be nice, but look at the other races. If the building wave is big enough that we can win statewide in R+15 places like Alabama, that makes all but ~3 of the 36 governor's races competitive in 2018. We could potentially pick up like 10-15+ governorships if we're lucky. AL was a lot more than R+15
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Dec 13, 2017 19:09
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AL is ~ R+28.
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Dec 13, 2017 19:12
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https://twitter.com/WaPoSean/status/940948105205346304 Looks like this new strategy is catching on.
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Dec 13, 2017 19:14
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So, how many of the new batch of Dems are closer to the "bernie" end of things? I don't want to be too happy about this just in case it blows up.
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Dec 13, 2017 19:14
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AegisP posted:https://twitter.com/WaPoSean/status/940948105205346304 Pity it took a year for them to get it.
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Dec 13, 2017 19:15
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AegisP posted:https://twitter.com/WaPoSean/status/940948105205346304 Cerebral Bore posted:Pity it took a year for them to get it.
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Dec 13, 2017 19:17
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Josef bugman posted:So, how many of the new batch of Dems are closer to the "bernie" end of things? Depends on the district I imagine. You're going to get a lot more "lets work together and get things done for the people" from candidates in red districts and states. In solidly blue districts and states, the primaries look to be shaping up to be the most competitive from the left since the Iraq War. Cerebral Bore posted:Pity it took a year for them to get it. After learning what shape the DNC was in from Brazile, it is honestly impressive that the Perez/Ellison team was able to turn things around so quickly.
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Dec 13, 2017 19:26
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Trabisnikof posted:Depends on the district I imagine. You're going to get a lot more "lets work together and get things done for the people" from candidates in red districts and states. In solidly blue districts and states, the primaries look to be shaping up to be the most competitive from the left since the Iraq War. I mean I understand that, but I would just really like it if America started being somewhere liveable as someone from the UK who is eyeing brexit and going "errr". How bad a shape did Wasserman Schultz leave the DNC in? Like the unofficial version because I know the official version is "very bad".
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Dec 13, 2017 19:38
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Josef bugman posted:I mean I understand that, but I would just really like it if America started being somewhere liveable as someone from the UK who is eyeing brexit and going "errr". She and Obama destroyed it. Obama abandoned it for OFA then didn't do anything with OFA for fear of scaring Republicans. Meanwhile DWS got the DNC so bankrupt it had to sell out to Hillary ahead of the primary just to stay afloat. They spent millions on consultants and shrunk the parts of the party that dealt with anything that didn't give consultant kickbacks. Remember how much the DNC loved TV ads under Obama? Well, TV ads give a healthy kickback to the media consultant. Grassroots organizing doesn't give a kickback to anyone.
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Dec 13, 2017 19:49
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Trabisnikof posted:She and Obama destroyed it. Obama abandoned it for OFA then didn't do anything with OFA for fear of scaring Republicans. Meanwhile DWS got the DNC so bankrupt it had to sell out to Hillary ahead of the primary just to stay afloat. They spent millions on consultants and shrunk the parts of the party that dealt with anything that didn't give consultant kickbacks. Remember how much the DNC loved TV ads under Obama? Well, TV ads give a healthy kickback to the media consultant. Grassroots organizing doesn't give a kickback to anyone. Jesus, what is it with Democrats and just being stupid about getting themselves elected. Also what is OFA?
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Dec 13, 2017 20:04
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Josef bugman posted:Jesus, what is it with Democrats and just being stupid about getting themselves elected. Obama For America I believe e: guess I'm wrong cheetah7071 fucked around with this message at 20:08 on Dec 13, 2017 |
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Dec 13, 2017 20:06
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It’s Organizing for America and it still exists, nominally.
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