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Boon
Jun 21, 2005

by R. Guyovich

axeil posted:

Yep. It's why I'm hopeful things get better now that you can more easily do controlled experiments.

We've learned a ton about how negotiation works and cultural biases and the notions of fairness by running economic games in laboratory settings.

An example of this:

You and I are going to play a game called "The Dictator Game". I'll be playing as "The Dictator". You will be playing as "The Approver" I'm given $50. I can keep all the money myself or give any amount of it to you with me receiving the remainder. The only thing is that the person who did not receive the money decides whether the distribution is acceptable. If it is not no one gets anything.

Naive economic analysis would say that the Dictator should offer $1 to The Approver since she will still be $1 better off, even though The Dictator gets $49.

Reality shows that is laughably false. In America the Dictator usually will only have their offer accepted if they offer something close to a 50-50 split. Of course there are wrinkles here too.

Say we play The Dictator Game again but this time we have 10 rounds to reach an agreement. We can't communicate except by my offering a value and you accepting or rejecting it. Funny enough there is a strategy here for the Dictator to get a lot more than 50-50. Here's how it works:

1. Dictator offers an unfair but "reasonable" split, say 60-40
2. Approver rejects
3. Dictator offers the same split again
4. Approver rejects
5. Repeat until the 6th or so iteration
6. After the 6th rejection, the Dictator makes his offer more unfair, now offering only 66-33.
7. The Dictator continues to make the offer more unfair until the Approver accepts or the game ends

This strategy actually works and you'll usually see the Dictator get something like 75% of the money. Why? Because using this strategy the Dictator is signaling that he doesn't care if he gets nothing. Basically he's being stubborn as hell and by continually increasing the unfairness of his offer it credibly signals that he's more willing to take $0 than to take an offer where he isn't much better off.

There are other strategies that players can apply too. In one case the Approver can reject everything that isn't in their favor, in a true negotiation strategy the Dictator can move closer and closer to 50, etc.

Simply by playing the game over more than 1 round you get a very wide variety of strategies that "work", something that no one would've really anticipated without seeing the experiments play out.

Experimental Economics is really fascinating and if you have the chance to participate in a study I highly recommend it.


Thanks! :D Glad to hear it

There are variations of this that study persuasion and compliance. The dictator can create an unfair distributioin that is acceptable by offering a completely unfair split but working it down to a lesser but still unfair split.

The idea being that a sense of obligation builds within the 'approver' to reciprocate to the dictator who accepted the approver's initial decline(s)

[Insert picture of white german shepherd being a good boy]

Boon fucked around with this message at 18:58 on Dec 14, 2017

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Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

aware of dog posted:

So unless another republican steps up, the race for Ryan's seat is gonna be Randy Bryce vs an alt-right pizzagater.

Speaker of the House Randy "Iron Stache" Bryce

(yes, I know he wouldn't become Speaker)

He must be seeing some truly heinous early numbers in his race, because otherwise he'd just step down from the Speakership.

Ganson
Jul 13, 2007
I know where the electrical tape is!

ReidRansom posted:

Also, gently caress him, torching poo poo and then loving off to a lucrative private lobbying/think tank gig or whatever

Supposedly he wants to play house wife for his kids before they get too old.

Ague Proof
Jun 5, 2014

they told me
I was everything
There's a really good dog on the livestream.

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


Lightning Knight posted:

Hypothetically if we’re lucky, it’s held up on court charges until a Dem administration reverses it.

I don’t think they’ll be able to tie it up in court for that long though and once it goes through the telecoms will never let it come back.

the telecoms don't really have a say if the next dem administration is committed to it

DandyLion
Jun 24, 2010
disrespectul Deciever

Lightning Knight posted:

Yeah it looks like we’re seeing the worst case scenario: the Rs decide they have nothing to lose and try to just pass everything on their wishlist before they get booted out.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the tax plan passed post haste before the end of the year.

Also lmao net neutrality is never coming back, rip the internet.

Oh for sure. They're going to try and get the tax plan passed before anyone's read it or the CBO has a chance to score it. There's no way it passes once its read and the CBO's score is out.

Also they've got to try before Alabama's new senator is sworn in.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Koyaanisgoatse posted:

the telecoms don't really have a say if the next dem administration is committed to it

I think making it a plank in the next Democratic Presidential candidate's platform wouldn't go amiss.

ded redd
Aug 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy

Lightning Knight posted:

I don’t think they’ll be able to tie it up in court for that long though and once it goes through the telecoms will never let it come back.

In the sense that the Democratic party is lobbied trash?

Lightning Knight
Feb 24, 2012

Pray for Answer

Koyaanisgoatse posted:

the telecoms don't really have a say if the next dem administration is committed to it

But will the next Dem administration be committed to it?

We’d probably have to do some kind of mass movement to get them to remember it even existed.

Brony Car
May 22, 2014

by Cyrano4747

Ganson posted:

Supposedly he wants to play house wife for his kids before they get too old.

Republicans will really respect that.

Dietrich
Sep 11, 2001

Koyaanisgoatse posted:

the telecoms don't really have a say if the next dem administration is committed to it

It will really suck when none of the dem's ads show up on the internet, you can't access their websites, and all the links to vote information suddenly stop working, don't you think?

Ramos
Jul 3, 2012


Hold on, I'm tuning from a busy day at work. NN isn't repealed yet and everyone evacuated? Is there some poo poo going down outside of the place?

Ganson
Jul 13, 2007
I know where the electrical tape is!

Brony Car posted:

Republicans will really respect that.

Unlikely, he wants to raise his kids not diddle them.

Jack2142
Jul 17, 2014

Shitposting in Seattle

Maybe Paul Ryan is one of the congressmen balls deep in harassment cover ups and it will blow as soon as this tax stuff gets pooped out.

Ague Proof
Jun 5, 2014

they told me
I was everything

Ramos posted:

Hold on, I'm tuning from a busy day at work. NN isn't repealed yet and everyone evacuated? Is there some poo poo going down outside of the place?

Someone called in a bomb threat.

John Wick of Dogs
Mar 4, 2017

A real hellraiser


Bomb threat. Hopefully they can't finish the meeting

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Ramos posted:

Hold on, I'm tuning from a busy day at work. NN isn't repealed yet and everyone evacuated? Is there some poo poo going down outside of the place?

The FCC has committed to repealing it. Now begins months of litigation at the very least.

Lightning Knight
Feb 24, 2012

Pray for Answer

Al Borland Corp. posted:

Bomb threat. Hopefully they can't finish the meeting

They already did the thing that matters, unfortunately.

4chan can’t even get terrorism right.

Ague Proof
Jun 5, 2014

they told me
I was everything
They're returning to the room.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Lightning Knight posted:

But will the next Dem administration be committed to it?

We’d probably have to do some kind of mass movement to get them to remember it even existed.

corey booker has been hammering pretty hard on net neutrality and is about as far right as I expect any Dem nominee to be

Dietrich posted:

It will really suck when none of the dem's ads show up on the internet, you can't access their websites, and all the links to vote information suddenly stop working, don't you think?

:derp: :supaburn:

Teddybear
May 16, 2009

Look! A teddybear doll!
It's soooo cute!


NN isn't over today, per se-- there will be litigation, attempts at blocking implementation of the repeal through preliminary and permanent injunctions, attacks on the rule-making process, attempts to negate the rule based on the evidence of fraud in the comment-making and the agency's seeming willful blindness to it, etc etc etc. It might go into effect; it might not. But the fight over it doesn't end today by any means.

Ramos
Jul 3, 2012


haveblue posted:

The FCC has committed to repealing it. Now begins months of litigation at the very least.


Lightning Knight posted:

They already did the thing that matters, unfortunately.

4chan can’t even get terrorism right.

Whelp, so much for that.

ded redd
Aug 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy
If nothing else this administration has shown that the federal government can swing its dick around like a bloody club regardless of whether people want it or not, and no one beyond the most broken of ultra-CHUDS gives a flying gently caress that the telecoms have an opinion. Four senate Democrats voted to reconfirm Pai as chairman so yeah I can't really trust these rats to do anything, but that goes for just about everything.

Anyway I'm glad the filth fear for their lives right now.

Koalas March
May 21, 2007



INT - KM'S DEN

Koalas March quietly picks up a pen and adds saving Net Neutrality to her campaign platform.

Chilichimp
Oct 24, 2006

TIE Adv xWampa

It wamp, and it stomp

Grimey Drawer

he's really losing his poo poo now that John Oliver is on christmas break, isn't he?

NmareBfly
Jul 16, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!


The thing that I foresee happening is that telecoms will use their enormously deep pockets to actually improve things for a couple years for the shitstorm to die down (and to make people think they're better off now / erode support), then they'll start tightening the noose once everyone's tired of the debate. :sigh:

TyroneGoldstein
Mar 30, 2005
I'm trying really hard now not to loving get angry at all the buttery males out there.

Really really loving hard.

Petr
Oct 3, 2000
RIP Internet 1989-2017

Party Plane Jones
Jul 1, 2007

by Reene
Fun Shoe

Office Pig posted:

Four senate Democrats voted to reconfirm Pai as chairman so yeah I can't really trust these rats to do anything, but that goes for just about everything.

The FCC is always 3 majority party, 2 minority. Pai was appointed as a minority party chairman at the request of McConnell by Obama.

axeil
Feb 14, 2006

Trivia posted:

I've only taken a few econ courses in school, but have read several books based on D&D's recommendations.

Got any interesting ones you yourself liked? I find economics pretty fascinating but good luck trying to find someone outside of a uni who'll chat about it.

Krugman's The Accidental Theorist is good and even accessible to a casual audience (he cites his formal papers in the back though):

https://www.amazon.com/Accidental-Theorist-Dispatches-Dismal-Science/dp/0393318877

International Trade Theory and Policy basically served as my primary textbook for my class on International Trade. It is a textbook though but it's really good at illustrating why protectionism is not usually a good idea even if you have noble intentions. Given the rise of neo-protectionism I highly recommend understanding the mechanics of comparative advantage and other trade-related elements:

https://www.amazon.com/International-Trade-Theory-Policy-10th/dp/0133423670

The Black Swan is from a right-wing guy but the points he makes about economic prediction are still salient (tl;dr: prediction is very difficult and the longer the time horizon the more uncertain the prediction):

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00139XTG4/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1

This Time It's Different is an excellent example of how important editing is. The short story is the authors of this book looked back at all economic crises to have ever occurred and concluded that most of them were due to high debt/GDP ratios. Except there was a calculation error in the Excel table they used that, when corrected, made their conclusion disappear. Arguably this book caused the Eurozone Crisis. A good cautionary tale. Still useful though for the breadth of time it covers. I don't think any other economics book out there is talking about stuff that happened in the 17th and 18th centuries.

https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial-ebook/dp/B004EYT932

One of my personal favorites: Too Big to Fail. If you read one book about the 2008 financial crisis, make it this one. The author goes into extreme detail explaining how the system of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) and Credit Default Swaps (CDS) worked and how we got here. He also makes (I think) a very persuasive argument for why the bailout was the only real option in the fall of 2008, which I know is controversial in places like here.

https://www.amazon.com/Too-Big-Fail-Washington-FinancialSystem-ebook/dp/B003XQEVUI


This isn't economics-related, but because econ is tied so heavily to Big Data, I think Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is a good read. It's all about the use of data in predictions and argues, the same as Taleb, that extreme caution and care should be made when making predictions off of data.

https://www.amazon.com/Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions-Fail-but-ebook/dp/B007V65R54

scuz
Aug 29, 2003

You can't be angry ALL the time!




Fun Shoe

Koalas March posted:

INT - KM'S DEN

Koalas March quietly picks up a pen and adds saving Net Neutrality to her campaign platform.

https://media.giphy.com/media/l46CD7xtJHK909cly/giphy.gif

scuz fucked around with this message at 19:08 on Dec 14, 2017

DLC Inc
Jun 1, 2011

totally forgot about Randy Bryce being Ryan's challenger. That would loving own if he sweeps right in

Lightning Knight
Feb 24, 2012

Pray for Answer

Trivia posted:

I've only taken a few econ courses in school, but have read several books based on D&D's recommendations.

Got any interesting ones you yourself liked? I find economics pretty fascinating but good luck trying to find someone outside of a uni who'll chat about it.

Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea is a good one, by Mark Blyth.

Lemming
Apr 21, 2008

NmareBfly posted:

The thing that I foresee happening is that telecoms will use their enormously deep pockets to actually improve things for a couple years for the shitstorm to die down (and to make people think they're better off now / erode support), then they'll start tightening the noose once everyone's tired of the debate. :sigh:

The "good" part is that since this is decided by the FCC and not a law passed by Congress, this is one of the bullshit issues that can ping pong back and forth if we get a Democrat back in the oval office.

Eggplant Squire
Aug 14, 2003


Is Ryan finally going back to his career as the Oscar Mayer truck driver?

Reik
Mar 8, 2004

Trivia posted:

I've only taken a few econ courses in school, but have read several books based on D&D's recommendations.

Got any interesting ones you yourself liked? I find economics pretty fascinating but good luck trying to find someone outside of a uni who'll chat about it.

The Honest Truth About Dishonesty by Ariely was a good read. It's about behavioral economics though, not sure if that's what you're looking for.

Bottom Liner
Feb 15, 2006


a specific vein of lasagna
https://twitter.com/gabrielsherman/status/941358313236828160


:laffo:

axeil
Feb 14, 2006

Dmitri-9 posted:

Are you talking about the economic calculation problem?

Ah, yep! That's what it was called and it was von Mises who wrote the paper I'm thinking of which is called "Economic Calculation in the Socialist Commonwealth".

At least I think that's the paper I'm thinking of. I recall the one I read having a proof for why a command/mixed economy could not be as efficient as a free-market but I'm not seeing the argument I remember seeing in my brief glance at that 1920 paper. Could've been some follow-up paper that I'm blanking on the name of.

It's an interesting debate and the one (and only one) arena where I will concede the Austrian's arguments aren't completely ridiculous (just very naive).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_calculation_problem

edit: I would also add that the Austrian insistence that the calculation problem means socialism will never work is too strong a conclusion. It is a problem (potentially), but not a fatal one.

axeil fucked around with this message at 19:13 on Dec 14, 2017

CuddleCryptid
Jan 11, 2013

Things could be going better

Pai said that we need to repeal net neutrality because of Bitcoin miners are sucking up all the bandwidth

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The Glumslinger
Sep 24, 2008

Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?


Hair Elf
https://twitter.com/edatpost/status/941368943457038336

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