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i saw this referenced earlier and laughed because i was so certain that it WAS a parody life is suffering
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Dec 21, 2017 19:38
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it owsn that the longer this bubble lasts the more of the actual economy gets sucked into it and when it finally viciously pops like no bubble ever before its going to take down a ton of legit poo poo with it
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Dec 21, 2017 19:41
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I wasn't economically aware during the leadup to previous crashes. Was there this sense of obvious impending doom then too, and the "nobody saw this coming" line was always bullshit? Were randos like us watching CDO transactions then like we're watching tech startup / bitcoin nonsense now?
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Dec 21, 2017 19:50
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Goon Danton posted:I wasn't economically aware during the leadup to previous crashes. Was there this sense of obvious impending doom then too, and the "nobody saw this coming" line was always bullshit? Were randos like us watching CDO transactions then like we're watching tech startup / bitcoin nonsense now? i remember reading d&d posts about an obvious real estate bubble in like 2007.
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Dec 21, 2017 19:54
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Goon Danton posted:I wasn't economically aware during the leadup to previous crashes. Was there this sense of obvious impending doom then too, and the "nobody saw this coming" line was always bullshit? Were randos like us watching CDO transactions then like we're watching tech startup / bitcoin nonsense now? No, the financial crisis was pretty different. A lot of the poo poo today is superfluous rich people fun-money that they have trouble investing at the returns they want. Back in 2007 it was housing prices and shaky mortgages being packaged as a financial product and traded for ridiculous expected returns. Look at the stock market from December 2007 to the crashes in Fall 2008. Volatility was loving wild, things are very stable right now in comparison. It's weird. Imo the systemic risk to average people in 2007 was way worse, but rich people have way more money doing weird poo poo today.
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Dec 21, 2017 19:56
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Goon Danton posted:I wasn't economically aware during the leadup to previous crashes. Was there this sense of obvious impending doom then too, and the "nobody saw this coming" line was always bullshit? Were randos like us watching CDO transactions then like we're watching tech startup / bitcoin nonsense now? There was a much stronger sense of impending doom, imo - a lot more impending than this, which is mostly just hilarious. "Nobody saw this coming" was an absolute bullshit line from the moment it was uttered, pretty much everyone that stopped to look at what was happening saw the result coming (although it was worse in some ways than people predicted because the companies involved were acting in ways even shadier than expected - but everyone knew we were in a bubble and it was gonna collapse hard)
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Dec 21, 2017 20:00
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Sheng-Ji Yang posted:i remember reading d&d posts about an obvious real estate bubble in like 2007. ive been reading d&d canada thread posts about their bubble for like 5 years
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Dec 21, 2017 20:01
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maybe the markets always crash every few years because people get super antsy and go "numbers cant just keep going up!" and then everythign crashes bc of low confidence and that cycle repeats itself because people keep believing in it economic basilisk
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Dec 21, 2017 20:02
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the bitcoin of weed posted:i saw this referenced earlier and laughed because i was so certain that it WAS a parody It's not the first time this trick was tried similar trick would be randomly tossing in words like chip or silicon in a company name
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Dec 21, 2017 20:02
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Goon Danton posted:I wasn't economically aware during the leadup to previous crashes. Was there this sense of obvious impending doom then too, and the "nobody saw this coming" line was always bullshit? Were randos like us watching CDO transactions then like we're watching tech startup / bitcoin nonsense now? Jesus loving Christ, Yes
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Dec 21, 2017 20:02
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are auto-trading bots being programmed to buy on the word "blockchain"? because I know finance guys are stupid and greedy but at some point someone had to realize they just bought tons of shares of a loving iced tea company right?
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Dec 21, 2017 20:03
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Christ, the Aus housing bubble is in year fuckin 15. Friends I went to school with bought a house for 90k just after they left, now I'm looking at at least 800k to avoid an hour's commute. 500k if I'm cool with that.
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Dec 21, 2017 20:03
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anime was right posted:maybe the markets always crash every few years because people get super antsy and go "numbers cant just keep going up!" and then everythign crashes bc of low confidence and that cycle repeats itself because people keep believing in it by making this thread i have helped doom us to another crash
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Dec 21, 2017 20:03
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Rhesus Pieces posted:are auto-trading bots being programmed to buy on the word "blockchain"? It has reserved the web domain name https://www.longblockchain.com will still operate a ready-to-drink beverage subsidiary. It's not a loving iced tea company anymore!! It's a loving ready-to-drink beverage subsidiary!!
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Dec 21, 2017 20:07
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mods please namechange me to "gently caress you and blockchain" so I can pay rent next month tia
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Dec 21, 2017 20:10
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Goon Danton posted:I wasn't economically aware during the leadup to previous crashes. Was there this sense of obvious impending doom then too, and the "nobody saw this coming" line was always bullshit? Were randos like us watching CDO transactions then like we're watching tech startup / bitcoin nonsense now? we knew that there was an obvious bubble that was bound to eventually pop but we had no clue just how levered the banks were and the subsequent calamity that caused was unexpected. the obama admin pressed mandatory 'stress testing' onto the big banks such that they had to demonstrate that future collapses wouldn't take down the entire financial sector- the trump admin has since removed that requirement iirc
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Dec 21, 2017 20:14
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Aliquid posted:No, the financial crisis was pretty different. A lot of the poo poo today is superfluous rich people fun-money that they have trouble investing at the returns they want. Back in 2007 it was housing prices and shaky mortgages being packaged as a financial product and traded for ridiculous expected returns. it's true there's less systemic risk relative to 2007-2008 because the people hit in 2007-2008 never recovered, and its easy for growth to be regular and even when value is disconnected from any economic input or activity
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Dec 21, 2017 20:15
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Willie Tomg posted:it's true there's less systemic risk relative to 2007-2008 because the people hit in 2007-2008 never recovered, and its easy for growth to be regular and even when value is disconnected from any economic input or activity i disagree. the systemic risk was entirely of the finance sector's making. the housing market is just what they happened to glomp onto to make insanely levered instruments. there's no guarantee that they haven't resumed the exact same practices on some other instrument
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Dec 21, 2017 20:20
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Rex-Goliath posted:i disagree. the systemic risk was entirely of the finance sector's making. the housing market is just what they happened to glomp onto to make insanely levered instruments. there's no guarantee that they haven't resumed the exact same practices on some other instrument Also many of the same financial investments from the 2008 crash just got re-named.
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Dec 21, 2017 20:24
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This is gonna take some digging but I remember there was a video going around of this ron paul gold bug calling out wall st. about six months before the crash making a very reasoned argument as to why the whole thing was a house of cards. It was one of those 'stopped clock' moments and I want to try to find it because it should basically be a perfect summary of the information we had at the time. Oh I was able to find it pretty quickly: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfascZSTU4o I'm watching it again and laughing because I forgot the naysayer against him was none other than Laffer. edit: God drat this applies just as much to today as it did back in '06 PIZZA.BAT fucked around with this message at 20:33 on Dec 21, 2017 |
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Dec 21, 2017 20:30
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that is all true, but i think the guy was focusing on the assets borne by regular-rear end people? lots of people had mortgages whose value got hosed up by the '08 crash. fewer people are holding bitcoins, or derivative securities thereof, or are reliant on VC flows or whatever. because even though there's more money in the system than ever, its held by fewer people than ever. ergo: systemic risk is minimized horizontally if not vertically also a flu and its medicine thats been kicking my rear end all day might be making me uncharacteristically nice to a statement whose least charitable interpretation is "can't lose your house and job and 50/50 only find new employment below a living wage if it already happened ten years ago and never got better!  "so there's that
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Dec 21, 2017 20:31
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Rex-Goliath posted:This is gonna take some digging but I remember there was a video going around of this ron paul gold bug calling out wall st. about six months before the crash making a very reasoned argument as to why the whole thing was a house of cards. It was one of those 'stopped clock' moments and I want to try to find it because it should basically be a perfect summary of the information we had at the time. yeah schiff became a billionaire from shorting it. hes an insane austrian econ guy though
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Dec 21, 2017 20:34
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Hedge funds are getting excited over putting money into Bitcoins
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Dec 21, 2017 20:38
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Willie Tomg posted:that is all true, but i think the guy was focusing on the assets borne by regular-rear end people? lots of people had mortgages whose value got hosed up by the '08 crash. fewer people are holding bitcoins, or derivative securities thereof, or are reliant on VC flows or whatever. because even though there's more money in the system than ever, its held by fewer people than ever. ergo: systemic risk is minimized horizontally if not vertically Right but I don't think less people holding on to the assets naturally translates to there also being less systemic risk. Banks could be whipping up insane financial instruments around crypto coins held be just a few thousand traders and passing those assets off as great investments to the wider population / each other. That's all I'm saying. They can all lever each other up and become toxic to each other without our help.
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Dec 21, 2017 20:42
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Rex-Goliath posted:I'm watching it again and laughing because I forgot the naysayer against him was none other than Laffer. We really are in the worst timeline.
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Dec 21, 2017 20:43
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I would wager that the majority of wealth created in the past 10 years is basically just on paper, and doesn't actually represent any material value increase. the systemic risk is low, but that won't stop all our retirement accounts from being decimated when the stock market "corrects"
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Dec 21, 2017 20:49
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Goon Danton posted:I wasn't economically aware during the leadup to previous crashes. Was there this sense of obvious impending doom then too, and the "nobody saw this coming" line was always bullshit? Were randos like us watching CDO transactions then like we're watching tech startup / bitcoin nonsense now? There were plenty of op-eds in 2003 when the price of real estate started to go parabolic. The line was "housing prices can't keep rising at this rate it is unsustainable" and the counter was "you're just a jealous naysayer, learn how to make $300,000 a year by flipping houses". There is no respect for those who are right too early.
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Dec 21, 2017 20:57
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https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/943880274655539200
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Dec 21, 2017 21:04
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And for what it’s worth Schiff has predicted hyperinflation around the corner any day now for close to a decade. IIRC he is a big gold bug (which would’ve been a pretty weak trade during this recovery). So don’t give him too much credit.
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Dec 21, 2017 21:16
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https://twitter.com/bykevinclark/status/943930156300886016 https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/943938735846166529
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Dec 21, 2017 21:20
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i'm going to start selling $20,000 ASICs that are really just intel NUCs in a plastic box
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Dec 21, 2017 21:23
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another big economic crash is for sure gonna happen, and probably soon, because all the people who have all the money and are running poo poo at all levels made a loving killing as a result of it and they probably want to do it again now that they'd be paying even less tax on the profits
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Dec 21, 2017 21:36
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and in some cases they didn't even bother to rename their disastrous schemes
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Dec 21, 2017 21:37
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gently caress You And Diebold posted:https://twitter.com/bykevinclark/status/943930156300886016 extremely glad I clicked on this thread again
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Dec 21, 2017 21:51
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im scared to ask my dad if he put any money it bitcoin
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Dec 21, 2017 21:57
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yeah we're definitely at whatever the point is in a classic bubble/mania where suckers come flooding in what are the analogs? house-flipping shows and radio ads in 2006-7? I need analogs!
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Dec 21, 2017 21:58
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Shear Modulus posted:im scared to ask my dad if he put any money it bitcoin I struck up a conversation with one of my uncles at my sister's wedding back in August and he got onto the topic of how he was diversifying 15% of his money into bitcoin he was an ER doctor for three decades so he's pretty loaded. I wonder if he's smart enough to realize he should get out soon
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Dec 21, 2017 22:01
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Just remember that predicting crashes is like predicting weather, it'd be hilarious if the system crashed because of bitcoin but it could easily come from somewhere no one is looking like subprime auto-loans (it won't be auto-loans but still)
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Dec 21, 2017 22:02
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Rhesus Pieces posted:yeah we're definitely at whatever the point is in a classic bubble/mania where suckers come flooding in If they start having bitcoin tv shows like they did house flipping on regular cable then were hosed
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Dec 21, 2017 22:03
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hen doctors invest, get out
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Dec 21, 2017 22:06
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