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Saladin Rising posted:When Nouri al-Maliki suddenly wants to be your friend, you should run far, far away and then take a look at how hard you hosed up to get to that position in the first place. If Barzani actually starts buddying up to Maliki then Barzani's even dumber than I thought he was. They can share stories about how quickly they lost Mosul.
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Dec 27, 2017 23:11
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And everyone was wondering what all that poo poo about Waleed bin Talal was.
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Dec 27, 2017 23:41
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Welp So much for quality in AJE
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Dec 28, 2017 00:24
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Thug Lessons posted:We wouldn't be debating it because ISIS members are criminals by definition, since they belong to an internationally proscribed terrorist organization. But I definitely wouldn't feel comfortable calling an ISIS member a war criminal without evidence, let alone summarily executing him. And if someone was caught doing so my response would be the same: to say that this is an extremely serious war crime, there's no excuse, and the perpetrators must be punished. I’m pretty sure any SyAAF pilot refusing to partake in aerial campaigns would face severe repercussions.
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Dec 28, 2017 05:59
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Human Grand Prix posted:I’m pretty sure any SyAAF pilot refusing to partake in aerial campaigns would face severe repercussions. Not if they just fly away.
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Dec 28, 2017 06:33
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Bip Roberts posted:Not if they just fly away. Just be sure to communicate your intent with potentially-hostile air defense
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Dec 28, 2017 06:40
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Interesting if true: Tehran Police to End Arrests for Breaching ‘Islamic Values’ https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/tehran-police-to-end-arrests-for-breaching-islamic-values-1514401780?__twitter_impression=true
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Dec 28, 2017 13:38
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New Caspian Report on turkey's geopolitical objectives in europe https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBGOPkwzMsw e: it's probably a little rude of me to post the unlisted patreon video, but it'll be publically released in a few hours so whatever
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Dec 28, 2017 17:40
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mediadave posted:Interesting if true: Its paywalled, care to copy/paste it?
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Dec 28, 2017 17:47
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Bohemian Nights posted:New Caspian Report on turkey's geopolitical objectives in europe well this just goes off the loving rails
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Dec 28, 2017 18:07
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Aliquid posted:well this just goes off the loving rails Haha, it sure goes command and conquer real fast in the hypothetical non-nato scenario, but I suppose otherwise it would be a very short video saying "Turkey is best served with the current status quo"
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Dec 28, 2017 18:13
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Bohemian Nights posted:Haha, it sure goes command and conquer real fast in the hypothetical non-nato scenario, but I suppose otherwise it would be a very short video saying "Turkey is best served with the current status quo" Honestly, I know Caspian Report is really popular around here, but honestly, usually, every video I have seen has been chock full of either wishful thinking or in this case complete non-sense. Usually, the setup is done well and then the analysis is some type of free association on the topic. I guess it is a bit of a harsh assessment but usually, I have to long my tongue over the videos that get posted. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 18:49 on Dec 28, 2017 |
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Dec 28, 2017 18:42
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Ardennes posted:Honestly, I know Caspian Report is really popular around here, but honestly, usually every video I have seen has been chock full of either wishful thinking, or in this case complete non-sense. Usually, the setup is done well and then the analysis is some type of free association. This particular episode was probably the weakest i've seen from caspian report, and if turkey wasn't something we discussed all the time, I probably wouldn't have linked it either. I generally think Shirvan's analysis is good- like his stuff on Saudi Arabia has, as far as I know, mostly been on point (And I really recommend his Science in Islam historical series!) Also in "here's" defense, I'm pretty sure I'm the only one who links these videos, so in theory I could also be the only actual fan of caspian report!
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Dec 28, 2017 18:51
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Bohemian Nights posted:This particular episode was probably the weakest i've seen from caspian report, and if turkey wasn't something we discussed all the time, I probably wouldn't have linked it either. I generally think Shirvan's analysis is good- like his stuff on Saudi Arabia has, as far as I know, mostly been on point (And I really recommend his Science in Islam historical series!) I seem to remember his China video being kind of bad, and his videos on the former Soviet Union/Caucasus very clearly are colored by being from Azerbaijan and the baggage that it comes that. I think he obviously puts a lot of work into his videos but invariably they start to go off the rails somewhere in the middle (at least for me) when he goes from laying out the scenario to a deeper analysis of an issue and forecasting. Of course in any geopolitical analysis, there is going to have biases, but it just gets too sketchy for me.
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Dec 28, 2017 19:46
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YPG says Russians are OK with them participating in peace talks. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-kurds/syrian-kurds-say-russia-has-promised-they-can-attend-sochi-talks-idUSKBN1EL16X
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Dec 28, 2017 23:43
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The US backed coalition in Yemen just murdered over 60 civilians today, directly targeting crowded marketplaces: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/28/saudi-led-airstrikes-yemen-war-united-nations
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Dec 29, 2017 07:00
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tekz posted:The US backed coalition in Yemen just murdered over 60 civilians today, directly targeting crowded marketplaces: I'm sorry that article has the most precious paragraph quote:The Saudis appear to be trying to capitalise on the political instability that has come about as a result of the death of Yemen’s former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was killed by the Houthis earlier this month as punishment for switching sides and seeking peace with Saudi Arabia. that's uh definitely one way to look at him
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Dec 29, 2017 07:14
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Cat Army 
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Wow. That spin could power the entire continental US for a year
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Dec 29, 2017 08:01
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Guardian Middle East reporting is bizarre because they clearly know war, repression, and extremism are bad, but seem to get half their talking points from Gulf shills. So even when they're basically right about things, they'll still have a couple  moments.Their Qatar article where their main sources were a Saudi official and a UAE ambassador was amazing.
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Dec 29, 2017 08:06
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I'll never get over how the SDF are always reported as 'U.S.-backed fighters' while with Yemen it's always just Saudi-led coalition.
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Dec 29, 2017 08:28
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Bohemian Nights posted:This particular episode was probably the weakest i've seen from caspian report, and if turkey wasn't something we discussed all the time, I probably wouldn't have linked it either. I generally think Shirvan's analysis is good- like his stuff on Saudi Arabia has, as far as I know, mostly been on point (And I really recommend his Science in Islam historical series!) I had the impression that his Patreon followers egged him on to make that vid. To me, I thought it clear it was a thought experiment essentially predicated on the collapse of NATO or Russian territorial integrity, which is pretty out there.
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Dec 29, 2017 18:48
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Where do you guys go for ~good~ geopolitical analysis?
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Dec 29, 2017 19:03
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Human Grand Prix posted:I’m pretty sure any SyAAF pilot refusing to partake in aerial campaigns would face severe repercussions. Ah those poor war criminals that were ‘just following orders’
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Dec 29, 2017 19:48
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CrazyLoon posted:I'll never get over how the SDF are always reported as 'U.S.-backed fighters' while with Yemen it's always just Saudi-led coalition. I mean, it's the Saudi's war. The the fact that they've bought US support doesn't mak charge that.
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Dec 29, 2017 20:09
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now that the international information landscape has deteriorated that the just-so proclamations of caspian report are now reputable, d&d is finally ready for Black Belt analysis of which middle eastern country's jet fighter's dad can beat up whichever middle eastern country's jet fighter's dad https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7a4sUtze3jw
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Dec 29, 2017 20:20
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Quite a few notable captures of ISIS members happening recently: https://twitter.com/TomtheBasedCat/status/946514125777141760 quote:ISIS member Abu Omar was arrested by the ISF Two articles about the capture of three French ISIS members (Thomas Barnouin, Romain Garnier, and Thomas Collange) by the YPG near Hasakah: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5217873/French-wanted-ISIS-jihadi-CAPTURED-Syria.html quote:An ISIS jihadi who is one of France's most wanted after being convicted of running a recruitment network in the country has been arrested in northern Syria, according to French media. More than three French nationals were stopped in the arrests by Kurdish YPG militia on December 17, including Thomas Barnouin, according to French news channel LCI. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42502370 quote:One of France's most-wanted jihadists, Thomas Barnouin, has been captured by Kurdish YPG rebel fighters in Syria, French media report. Barnouin, 36, is believed to be linked to a French jihadist cell that included Mohamed Merah, who murdered seven people in the Toulouse area in 2012. Barnouin was captured about 10 days ago in Hassakeh, north-eastern Syria, with two other French converts to Islam - Romain Garnier and Thomas Collange. They were with so-called Islamic State. Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 20:54 on Dec 29, 2017 |
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Dec 29, 2017 20:52
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Iran's facing the biggest wave of protests since 2009. Obama obviously thought it was best not to comment much on the protests back then, so it'll be interesting if this grows to see how Trump ends up responding. Poorly, I assume. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/29/iranian-police-disperse-anti-government-protests
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Dec 29, 2017 21:07
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Sinteres posted:Iran's facing the biggest wave of protests since 2009. Obama obviously thought it was best not to comment much on the protests back then, so it'll be interesting if this grows to see how Trump ends up responding. Poorly, I assume.
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Dec 29, 2017 21:13
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GWBBQ posted:I'm sure he'll respond with all the grace and foresight that Bush did with Iraq.
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Dec 29, 2017 21:31
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A Buttery Pastry posted:Trump immediately claims that he's behind the protests. "Together with our Saudi and Israeli friends, we're going to Make Iran Great Again."
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Dec 29, 2017 21:34
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Count Roland posted:Where do you guys go for ~good~ geopolitical analysis?
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Dec 29, 2017 22:01
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Yemen What was once a glacial conflict has proven itself to more dynamic following Saleh's turn against, and subsequent execution by, the Houthis but little seems to have changed on a fundamental level. In a sea of mountains and countless political groups the fallout from Saleh's death seems to be continued stalemate, even if some major moves have been made by the Saudi Coalition. Yemen, perhaps, proves that if there is one faction in the Middle East with a worse foreign policy than the United States it is none other than Saudi Arabia. This is a frustratingly opaque topic to look into for obvious reasons as reports are limited, at least in English, due to the geopolitics surrounding the war. This is the case even though Yemen, through Saudi stupidity or Iranian subterfuge, has become critical to the fate of the region. Due to Saudi's intervention they cannot retreat from the conflict without losing face against an ascendant Iran but their intervention bleeds from their dwindling coffers (and in the face of stagnant oil prices) and their blockade of basic foodstuffs and supplies into the country has triggered a famine and outbreak of disease that poisons their image abroad to say nothing of the humanitarian catastrophe they have unleashed onto one of the poorest countries on the earth.  Circled areas indicate recent changes in the wake of Saleh's death. The general trend is that defecting Saleh forces have allowed the Saudi's to squeeze the periphery of Houthi controlled territory but, aside from the coast, minimal progress has been made. I'd like to point out that this map is poorly defined and inaccurate compared to it's Syrian counterpart due to the confused and closed nature of the conflict. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/23/world/middleeast/yemen-sana-houthis-saudi-arabia.html?mtrref=www.google.com quote:Mr. Saleh’s killing came after he had established new contacts with Saudi Arabia and its allies, which hoped that he and his loyalists could turn the tide of the war. Even Western nations like the United States had hoped that Mr. Saleh’s party could play a role in negotiations to end the conflict, which began in 2014 when the Houthis and forces loyal to Mr. Saleh seized Sana, later sending the internationally recognized government into exile. quote:Some analysts predict that the political isolation of the Houthis will catch up with them, either because the opposition to their rule will become too hard to manage or because they will run out of money, leaving them unable to provide services in areas where they are the de facto government. https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/indepth/2017/12/27/saudi-arabias-life-or-death-mission-in-yemen-war quote:After three years of Saudi aerial bombardment and ground fighting, the Houthi group continues to be in control of many provinces including the capital Sanaa. https://www.npr.org/2017/12/23/573142606/why-the-war-in-yemen-receives-short-shrift-in-the-news quote:One of those stories is the war in Yemen. Western journalists have been almost completely shut out of covering that country, making it even harder to report. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/who-has-the-upper-hand-in-yemens-conflict quote:Meanwhile, the Yemeni people continue to suffer. This week, according to the Red Cross, the country registered its one-millionth case of cholera. Health officials say it is the fastest spreading cholera epidemic in history. Saleh's turn against the Houthi's may have offered a chance to end the war but his death has ensured that it will continue, much to the frustration of Saudi Arabia and an ascendant prince desperately in need of some sort of conclusion that lets him walk away from the Yemen fiasco with some amount of 'prestige' and without reeking of 'abject failure'. While Saleh's death prevented a complete turn in fortunes against the Houthi it did mark a substantial increase in the velocity in the war itself. But Saudi Arabia has consistently proven that it not a martial power in the same manner as Iran, if I had to hazard a guess I'd say hiding behind Western influence for generations while Iran was forced to fight against that same power has atrophied Saudi while empowering Iran. Consider me in the same group as Saudi Arabia in that I have no clue how they're going to end this war. Military victory is off the table due to its terrain and a lack of commitment by the Saudi's to send in decisive numbers of their own soldiers (are they waiting for the US to get involved?), without seizing most of the territory under Houthi control they can't starve them into submission and the Houthi's have no reason to negotiate or give in for the same reason the Taliban is still fighting the United States almost twenty years after our invasion of Afghanistan. Iran has committed relatively little to the Houthis and yet have ensnared the Saudi's in a quagmire that they can neither escape from nor break without ramifications that the Saudi's seem unwilling to commit to and so we have the perpetuation of this opaque conflict that is, by and large, out of sight and out of mind.
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Dec 29, 2017 22:06
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Count Roland posted:Where do you guys go for ~good~ geopolitical analysis? My personal preference is to read history books, hit up the SCW reddit for sheer volume of information and sift through it for things that are relevant, make ample use of Google for particular topics and heavily critique whatever source I'm looking at. The thing to realize is that almost everything you read is a form of propaganda on one level or another, even if someone is espousing it sincerely, and that you have to read everything with a filter on to try to find the underlying truth as well as comprehending the political subversion inherent in the source. So, for example, I like to link WorldOnAlert because he's active and provides consistent updates on rebel activities in Syria. But he's decisively pro-Saudi in that he'll never criticize Saudi Arabia (I've literally never seen him post about the Saudis in a negative light despite the famine/air strikes while posting incessantly about Assadian air strikes) while posting exclusively about Assad, Iran, Russia and even Venezuela as well as propagating news of terrorist attacks throughout the world. There's an itinerary of things/factions he will post about and another itinerary of things/factions he will -never- post about. He's a hypocrite, just like almost everyone who talks about the Middle East, but he's basically useful as a 'this happened along this front' source of information. The flipside to WoA would be IvanSidorenko, a purported Russian with sources throughout the Assadian forces. He's useful in that same vein of 'this happened along this front' but from the regime's perspective. They both go through periods of wild posting and being silent based on how 'their side' is doing at a given time. You'll see plenty of posting by Ivan due to the Assadian offensive into Hama and Idlib and relatively sparse posting by WoA in the past week. Western media is never going to delve too deeply into US war crimes and will offer justification for our interventions and positions abroad but, again, that doesn't mean they don't have good information to offer but you have to strip out the humanitarian perspective from their reporting. I straight up ignore poo poo like RT because it's just a front for misinformation and subverts the purpose of gathering information online, so I don't advocate reading -all- sources but careful vetting them to try to understand what you're receiving. I'd also recommend reading speeches from various heads of state but I also believe you can ignore anything an American politician has to say about everything domestic and abroad. Maybe the best piece of advice I can give you is to research the history of the region because that is extremely necessary in understanding the modern breakdown of how it's all turned to poo poo. Understanding the significance of Iran coming to power, for example, requires you to read about their relationship with the British and its exploitation of Iran's natural resources, the brief Democratic period under Mossadegh, the return of the Shan, the Iranian Revolution and the decades of war that followed. And that's just one country, albeit the dominant player. I haven't even begun researching Saudi Arabia past it's Western entanglements and it's outsourcing of Wahabi radicals. It's a long and endless road to understand the region and no one will sum it up for you without an underlying reason.
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Dec 29, 2017 22:34
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Sinteres posted:Iran's facing the biggest wave of protests since 2009. Obama obviously thought it was best not to comment much on the protests back then, so it'll be interesting if this grows to see how Trump ends up responding. Poorly, I assume. https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/946863969544867840 He probably will now that Fox News is just @ it to him on Twitter.
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Dec 29, 2017 23:28
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Mohammad bin Salman is a loving moron. https://twitter.com/AlSuraEnglish/status/946789594141462528
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Dec 29, 2017 23:55
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We know who the redshirts are in this episode lol
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Dec 30, 2017 00:15
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A Typical Goon posted:Ah those poor war criminals that were ‘just following orders’ “Lemme just disobey the guy that gasses people to death. I’m sure this will end well for myself and my family.” OR “Lemme just defect. I’m sure the Bismallah Al-Jihad Brigade WON’T murder me for being an apostate!”
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Dec 30, 2017 00:19
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If that's true what on Earth is the end goal of deposing King Abdullah? How does it benefit Saudi Arabia to potentially destabilize neutral Jordan?
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Dec 30, 2017 00:20
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OhFunny posted:If that's true what on Earth is the end goal of deposing King Abdullah? How does it benefit Saudi Arabia to potentially destabilize neutral Jordan? MBS wants puppet states, not diplomatic allies.
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Dec 30, 2017 00:25
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Yall dont get it. We're a bunch of idiots playing checkers while Muhammad bin Salman is playing Hearts of Iron 4: Millenium Dawn.
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Dec 30, 2017 00:30
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