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Volkerball posted:Thanks for that post, spaceships, it was interesting. It's almost like having a US president loudly shout his support for protesters in Iran isn't the one weird trick neocons thought it was.
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Jan 2, 2018 21:05
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Sinteres posted:It's almost like having a US president loudly shout his support for protesters in Iran isn't the one weird trick neocons thought it was. It's not when it's brazenly hypocritical. It's Trump. Everyone knows about him and his Muslim ban. Nobody gives a poo poo what he has to say. This is all independent of him. But IRGC statements should obviously be taken with a grain of salt.
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Jan 2, 2018 21:09
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Volkerball posted:It's not when it's brazenly hypocritical. It's Trump. Everyone knows about him and his Muslim ban. Nobody gives a poo poo what he has to say. This is all independent of him. But IRGC statements should obviously be taken with a grain of salt. I'm really not trying to be contentious here, but I think hypocrisy in US foreign policy clearly predates Trump. Even Obama, who belatedly issued support to protesters in Egypt as they toppled Mubarak, barely said a peep when Sisi massacred Egyptians in the streets with US supplied weapons. I think the US can be a moral voice in other parts of the world, and Trump has cost us there, but cynicism about our motives in the Middle East both existed before and was earned.
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Jan 2, 2018 21:12
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Ardennes posted:Maybe not, but Pakistan has increasingly been pulling into China's orbit (more than it did). 1. Make Pakistan cut ties with the US 2. Pakistan, seeking a new sugar daddy, runs to China 3. The coming Indo-Pakistani Nuclear War now also includes China 4. America has now been made truly Great, at least relatively.
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Jan 2, 2018 21:12
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TildeATH posted:Your dad sounds like a grade A jerk. that's Shah Grade A Jerk to you, pedar sag
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Jan 2, 2018 21:22
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He sounds like an old conservative douchebag with the Proud Shi’a and Those Good Revolutionaries Who Want Reform and Restrained IRGC lines. It sounds like an Iranian version of a Trump supporter who wants to make sure nothing really changes and none of that Foreign Influence gets in. I guess I just know more conservative Iranians than all you guys in this thread married to your various Tehrangeles cousins of the Shah.
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Jan 2, 2018 21:41
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Had an Iranian colleague stay with me the past few days. Talking to him & reading my FB feed of Iranians studying in America, most people are apathetic to the protests while hoping the government address corruption. One good conversation about Ahmadenijad's oligarchs* who've exported currency that are essentially untouchable due to Ahmadenijad's leverage. *Here's a summary I quickly found: https://www.peoplesworld.org/article/iran-s-neo-liberal-agenda/Count Roland posted:I thought I read the IRGC had already been brought out? Basij is under IRGC and they're ever-present. e: Titra Parsi & Billy Kristol https://www.rawstory.com/2018/01/wa...comments=disqus
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Jan 2, 2018 21:43
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TildeATH posted:He sounds like an old conservative douchebag with the Proud Shi’a and Those Good Revolutionaries Who Want Reform and Restrained IRGC lines. It sounds like an Iranian version of a Trump supporter who wants to make sure nothing really changes and none of that Foreign Influence gets in. my dad's a leftist lol e: sorry he's not parroting american regime change propaganda
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Jan 2, 2018 21:45
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Ardennes posted:Maybe not, but Pakistan has increasingly been pulling into China's orbit (more than it did). Yep, they've got the CPEC thing going on (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor), which was a forerunner of the whole "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI, also known as One Belt, One Road, OBOR, though that later term is discontinued because of English language confusion about what it means exactly since there's quite a bit more than one road in it). As China's internal consumerism becomes more and more reliant on imports, especially from Africa and the Arab countries, they have become more and more concerned with safekeeping land and sea roads from these countries to them. Their rivalry with India and with the USA means that if the situation degenerated, they could be choked by a maritime blockade. Here's a couple of maps. The first is of maritime traffic:  So it's easy to see the principal strategic points of control here. The straits of Ormuz (Iran, Oman, UAE), Bab-el-Mandeb (Djibouti, Yemen, Somaliland), Malacca, Sunda and Lombok (Malaysia, Indonesia), plus Cape Comorin (India, the Maldives and Sri Lanka). The second is more political:  (Points #13, #14 and #15 are mixed up in the map; which is also too old to mark Chinese presence in Djibouti.) The CPEC is a land shortcut. It's not without its drawbacks, but it's a vital safety. Likewise, Myanmar also allows to bypass the Pacific leg entirely if it were to become necessary. Then there's a bunch of Chinese military (or civilian but quickly "militarizable") installations in the "string of pearls" to secure traffic. (Note that from an Indian perspective, it looks like a Chinese attempt at containing them.)
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Jan 2, 2018 21:50
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Kurdish opposition. https://twitter.com/PDKIenglish/status/948295358614040577
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Jan 2, 2018 21:53
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spaceships posted:my dad's a leftist lol Hella leftist if you define any of the non-economic criticism to be American propaganda.
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Jan 2, 2018 21:54
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TildeATH posted:Hella leftist if you define any of the non-economic criticism to be American propaganda. i didn't, neither did he. e: you can't possibly expect anyone to engage with this post in good faith TildeATH posted:He sounds like an old conservative douchebag with the Proud Shi’a and Those Good Revolutionaries Who Want Reform and Restrained IRGC lines. It sounds like an Iranian version of a Trump supporter who wants to make sure nothing really changes and none of that Foreign Influence gets in. spaceships fucked around with this message at 21:58 on Jan 2, 2018 |
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Jan 2, 2018 21:54
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spaceships posted:i didn't, neither did he. he's being a massive loving idiot, just ignore him. Keep us updated with news from your dad, we need some sort of no-bullshit line into what's going on in there.
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Jan 2, 2018 22:03
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Sinteres posted:This is going to be a shitshow. Why? like pakistan isnt great(military state with ever riseing chance of getting couped by islamists someday and keeping the taliban around as perpetual enemy) but what pissed trump off enough to do this.
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Jan 2, 2018 22:03
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Dapper_Swindler posted:Why? like pakistan isnt great(military state with ever riseing chance of getting couped by islamists someday and keeping the taliban around as perpetual enemy) but what pissed trump off enough to do this. Trump hates Obama and Bush, and constantly gets convinced to do things by people telling him they weren't brave enough to do what he will, so that's probably what happened.
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Jan 2, 2018 22:07
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Sinteres posted:Trump hates Obama and Bush, and constantly gets convinced to do things by people telling him they weren't brave enough to do what he will, so that's probably what happened. probaly, but what is he gonna do? sanctions? military/civil aid freeze cut off. or will he just forget by tomorrow.
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Jan 2, 2018 22:09
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Cat Mattress posted:Yep, they've got the CPEC thing going on (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor), which was a forerunner of the whole "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI, also known as One Belt, One Road, OBOR, though that later term is discontinued because of English language confusion about what it means exactly since there's quite a bit more than one road in it). Yeah, the BRI should be seen just as much of a geopolitical investment as an economic one, and certainly, China has not been slouching out of its investment. Also, ironically enough, pushing through Eurasia/SE Asia and the Indian Ocean has not only increasing contained India but have in turn broken US' containment of China. That said, India's foreign policy has always taken an isolationist slant with a tendency toward geopolitical neutrality. India isn't sitting around (there have been considerable investments in the Indian Navy), but it is unclear they are actually on the road to siding with the West in an essentially an anti-Chinese alliance, especially since they are still buying Russian arms and are working with Iran on the Chabahar port. That said, it is clear China is not going to allow Pakistan to fall too far behind India, and undoubtedly Trump taking a hard stand against Pakistan will probably benefit the Chinese (balanced by the possibility of US-Indian cooperation). Basically, a break with Pakistan (and its obvious repercussions in Afganistan) makes sense only if the US can bring India into a Western orbit (which Indian may not actually want). Ardennes fucked around with this message at 22:14 on Jan 2, 2018 |
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Jan 2, 2018 22:11
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Dapper_Swindler posted:probaly, but what is he gonna do? sanctions? military/civil aid freeze cut off. or will he just forget by tomorrow. Even if they're serious about doing something in the next day or two, I bet even they don't know what that means yet. They could just add Pakistan to the travel ban I guess, though after some cursory research it looks like they and a number of other Muslim countries have already seen marked declines in the number of visas being issued, so there already seems to be a bit of a shadow ban being put in place.
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Jan 2, 2018 22:12
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I keep forgetting how large myanmar as a country is, wow those military guys really hosed up that country super hard in comparison to every other south eastern Asian country.
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Jan 2, 2018 22:16
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This will be interesting to follow. https://twitter.com/AmirToumaj/status/948302105923719169
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Jan 2, 2018 22:37
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Volkerball posted:This will be interesting to follow. The part about burning Qurans is crazy.
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Jan 2, 2018 22:46
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Volkerball posted:This will be interesting to follow. Follows: "These areas are supposed to be bastions of support for gov." This is kind of non-sensical beyond there not really being a Mazadarani separatist movement. I've never heard of Mazadaran being this and the recent election map shows they were strong Rouhani: http://www.wikiwand.com/en/Iranian_presidential_election,_2017 "Should be palpable by now that IRI is in deep trouble." Um. No. There's honestly countless Imamzadeh shrines in Iran and I've been to a few (ages ago). From what I remember, there were some basijis around to make sure people were properly attired going in. Hell, it's even possible basij did this as a false flag. e: Poster is FDD and saying non-sensical things. Checks out! guidoanselmi fucked around with this message at 23:09 on Jan 2, 2018 |
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Jan 2, 2018 23:03
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I'll keep an eye out to see if any more comes of it from somewhere else. Seems like Borzou and a handful of activists are the only ones getting any information. Everything is so politicized.
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Jan 2, 2018 23:15
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Volkerball posted:Thanks for that post, spaceships, it was interesting. What he said about the USA, Israel, and ESPECIALLY Saudi Arabia is 100% true.
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Jan 2, 2018 23:30
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Hey guys I just got the word from my buddy frrom Isfahan 'DETHTOISLAMILOVETHESHAHGREATERKURDISTAN4EVERILOVEISRAELNEOCONTRUMPLOVER6969' just told me that he went into the town square was super inspired by netanyahu's speech and farted on a picture of Khamaenei then everyone stood up and clapped!
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Jan 2, 2018 23:32
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TildeATH posted:He sounds like an old conservative douchebag with the Proud Shi’a and Those Good Revolutionaries Who Want Reform and Restrained IRGC lines. It sounds like an Iranian version of a Trump supporter who wants to make sure nothing really changes and none of that Foreign Influence gets in. He sounds like a man who doesn’t want to get severely beaten by police/military.
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Jan 2, 2018 23:34
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There is quite a "fog of war" at this point, cross-narratives are pretty easy to explain since it doesn't seem anyone has a complete grasp on what is going on. I could see the motive for economic unrest especially in rural Western Iran, especially since so much of the infrastructure investment that has happened in Tehran and Central Iran, especially with high unemployment and persistent inflation. I am a little more intrigued by the reported assaults on police stations (if they are to be believed), but there is so little to go on it is pretty much twitter hearsay.
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Jan 2, 2018 23:38
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This is obviously I/P stuff, but it affects the region and world, so it seems worth noting that Trump just said on twitter Jerusalem is off the table in terms of final status and he threatened to revoke aid to Palestinians if they don't hurry up and sign a lovely peace deal under the new terms. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/948322497602220032 You couldn't make up something to take attention off of what's going on in Iran better if you tried.
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Jan 2, 2018 23:50
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Sinteres posted:This is obviously I/P stuff, but it affects the region and world, so it seems worth noting that Trump just said on twitter Jerusalem is off the table in terms of final status and he threatened to revoke aid to Palestinians if they don't hurry up and sign a lovely peace deal under the new terms. Lol trump thinks that a muslim democracy like pakistan is going to sign a peace treaty with Israel for no reason. He thinks that Jerusalem is off the table in any concievable way. Please PLEASE stop paying Mahmoud Abbas, the PLO's current leadership shouldve been removed at least a decade ago, the only reason they're still alive is due to being propped up by the US and the Gulf, trump not paying them means that finally the Palestinians can get rid of him, Dahlan and Erekat once and for all. Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 23:59 on Jan 2, 2018 |
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Jan 2, 2018 23:56
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Al-Saqr posted:Hey guys I just got the word from my buddy frrom Isfahan 'DETHTOISLAMILOVETHESHAHGREATERKURDISTAN4EVERILOVEISRAELNEOCONTRUMPLOVER6969' just told me that he went into the town square was super inspired by netanyahu's speech and farted on a picture of Khamaenei then everyone stood up and clapped! Uhhh excuse me but everybody knows that anyone from Isfahan is a liar.  Ask for directions and get 10 different responses.
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Jan 3, 2018 00:03
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Volkerball posted:I'll keep an eye out to see if any more comes of it from somewhere else. Seems like Borzou and a handful of activists are the only ones getting any information. Everything is so politicized. Yeah, it's not to say the news they're relaying is necessarily deceptive but they're full of poo poo otherwise. Also, it's pretty drat easy to add a link to the report which they didn't. Here it is: http://www.farsnews.com/imgrep.php?nn=13961012001395 Wirth1000 posted:Uhhh excuse me but everybody knows that anyone from Isfahan is a liar. Nice to see other Iranians coming to the thread. For the curious: https://www.reddit.com/r/iran/comments/25n5le/a_little_background_on_iranian_ethnic_jokes_and/ Southerners, joonoobis, are the less civilized ruffians. At least they know that fesenjoon should be more tart than sweet.
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Jan 3, 2018 02:03
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eli lake, the dumb mother fucker who pushed the iraq war, is doing pretty much the same with iran, again. i cannot believe people still pay attention to him. tu goh khordie, eli e: *extremely netanyahu voice* eli is THREE WEEKS away from invading iran by himself
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Jan 3, 2018 02:38
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guidoanselmi posted:Southerners, joonoobis, are the less civilized ruffians. At least they know that fesenjoon should be more tart than sweet. My mom's from Yazd and she makes the best fesenjoon hands down. Disagree? Too bad. Also ghormeh sabzi. And I like my doogh uncarbonated. Fight me.
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Jan 3, 2018 03:49
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seems bad https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/948353313841598464
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Jan 3, 2018 04:05
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Sinteres posted:Nah. They do provide meaningful support sometimes, mixed in with the lies and sandbagging. They aren't willing to help enough to get the job done, and do engage in harmful activities (theoretically it's rogue agencies, but no agency is rogue enough to do this poo poo for almost two decades), but it's still arguably the case that things would be even worse without any pretense of them being on board. Trump's already picking one fight with a nuclear state, so picking right now to essentially call another a state sponsor of terrorism seems like bad timing at best. This is a simpering understatement. Pakistan's generals have looted their own country, murdered thousands of civilians, committed genocide, destroyed democratic institutions and weaponized Islamic terrorism to gently caress over their neighbouring countries, and their own. They should 100% not be receiving military aid and support from the US and are a major part of the reason the war in Afghanistan drags on and on without end. The reason they haven't been cut off is that the US military intelligence complex is allied with reactionary fundamentalism rather than opposed to it, despite the public rhetoric. mila kunis fucked around with this message at 05:52 on Jan 3, 2018 |
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Jan 3, 2018 05:50
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tekz posted:This is a simpering understatement. Pakistan's generals have looted their own country, murdered thousands of civilians, committed genocide, destroyed democratic institutions and weaponized Islamic terrorism to gently caress over their neighbouring countries, and their own. They should 100% not be receiving military aid and support from the US and are a major part of the reason the war in Afghanistan drags on and on without end. While all of this is true it’s important to remember that the US still has substantial commitments in Afghanistan, the oversight of which Trump has pretty much wholly handed off to the US military. Him loving with Pakistan at this time is not going to do the average grunt sitting in a firebase on the AfPak border any favors.
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Jan 3, 2018 06:07
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Has he hosed with a country that isn't a nuclear power?
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Jan 3, 2018 06:11
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I mean I’m not as worried about their nukes as I am being less willing to help with the efforts fighting/negotiating the Taliban. The fighting season in Afghanistan is over but come spring and there’s still a spat between the US and Pakistan going on things will get much worse.
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Jan 3, 2018 06:15
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Darkman Fanpage posted:I mean I’m not as worried about their nukes as I am being less willing to help with the efforts fighting/negotiating the Taliban. The fighting season in Afghanistan is over but come spring and there’s still a spat between the US and Pakistan going on things will get much worse. Yeah, thats the thing, aid at least gets out a foot in the door and gives us some leverage, ending it would be basically surrendering that advantage with nothing to replace it with. It doesn't help Trump wants to only increase troop commitments, and we can't actually retreat.
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Jan 3, 2018 06:18
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spaceships posted:my dad's a leftist lol Your father will not be a True Progressive until he singlehandedly defeats Ayatollah Khomeini in a scimitar duel and overthrows the government.
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Jan 3, 2018 07:21
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