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Free media in Egypt is as  as Palestinian Jerusalem.I mean, of course, advocate for it, but don't suggest another Egyptian revolution will fix it. It's a petro state with just enough economic diversity to make the citizens dangerous. The leaders have to cut every freedom for self defense and any shred of stability.
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Jan 6, 2018 21:49
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A good effortpost over on the civil war subreddit "Collapse of Islamic State Media Production - Graphing Three Years of Islamic State Videos" https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/7okw20/collapse_of_islamic_state_media_production/
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Jan 6, 2018 21:56
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2 years ago, or so, I made a post about some weaponized "switchblade" missile drones being found in Syria. Presumably, they were being used by US SOF against IS. An old tweet about it: https://twitter.com/green_lemonnn/status/661550996263411713/photo/1 The rebels have apparently made some of their own copies. https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/949701248051306496 
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Jan 6, 2018 21:56
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What's the context of the third picture HorrificExistence? Was it taken by Syrian government forces? This could explain how the airbase was attacked without any nearby rebel positions. Fixed wing drones can have quite a substantial range.
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Jan 6, 2018 22:12
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Meanwhile, in Saudi Arabia, or rather not in Saudi Arabia: https://www.cnsnews.com/blog/craig-bannister/female-chess-champion-refuses-defend-world-titles-saudi-arabia quote:In protest of Saudi Arabia’s treatment of women, Anna Muzychuk refused to defend her world titles in both the Rapid chess and Blitz chess competitions, held Dec. 26-30, 2017 in the Arab state.
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Jan 6, 2018 22:17
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Squalid posted:What's the context of the third picture HorrificExistence? Was it taken by Syrian government forces? Yes, it's allegedly one of the attacking UAVs that was shot down.
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Jan 6, 2018 22:24
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I've been waiting for clarity before doing a write up for both the battle for the Vehicle Base in Ghouta as well the regime's Idlib offensive but I thought I'd share some information. Damascus Intense clashes continue in Ghouta as both the regime and the rebels throw everything they have to seize control of the Vehicle Base salient that struck deep into rebel territory. It has been besieged for several days now and the battle is absolutely furious. Hundreds of dead and wounded on both sides with high ranking commanders dead on both sides. Additionally the rebels have lost at least one of their few tanks that remained in Ghouta. Supposedly the regime has almost broken the siege of the Vehicle Base but they've been saying that for three days now. https://twitter.com/Elly_Ammar/status/949701192057262082 The rebels almost seized control of that entire section but failed to take either the Irrigation Ministry (bottom left) or the 'Government Bu' (just to the right of that) and their failure allowed the regime to flood reinforcements and push towards relieving the Vehicle Base. https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/949759591012884480 I remember that the Cheetah was referenced previously in the old thread as a commander of a unit that acted as a poor man's Tiger Force for the SAA so this is why the tweet stuck out to me. https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/7okgup/top_rebel_commander_baker_aloush_killed_in_harasta/ Idlib https://twitter.com/NBbreaking/status/949767497850544131 The Assadians have pushed towards and are fighting to sack Sinjar, an HTS stronghold, and there are plenty of conspiracies going on right now regarding why the rebels have been completely incapable of even delaying this offensive. It seems like the other rebel groups weren't reinforcing the front due to HTS's behavior and, due to bleeding out for months fighting rebels, ISIS and the regime (including that spectacular failed offensive a while back), HTS simply couldn't withstand the force of the assault. But the other rebels have supposedly sent forces to the front yet their debacle continues as well as a refusal to form a unified command structure (are you shocked?). Either way this is a major boost for the Assadian's and a serious blow against the rebels. Soon enough the forces in the east will have to commit to their positions and risk being pocketed or retreat into western Idlib and brace for the next phase of the offensive. There is no indication that the rebels can stop this drive.
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Jan 7, 2018 00:17
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Now that ISIS is an extremely limited battlefield threat, it would be surprising if the regime couldn't concentrate forces in such a way that would allow it to make advances against the rebels. For a long time they were playing a game of letting one front languish while they made advances on another, as when Palmyra fell again during the capture of Aleppo, and when they had to shuttle forces back to Idlib from the ISIS front every time HTS launched a new assault north of Hama. Now that the regime isn't stretched as thin anymore, particularly since the southern front is also quiet these days, that concentrated force can be focused on Idlib in more than just an ad hoc/reactive basis. Erdogan's harsh words for the regime lately may also be providing an incentive to speed things up so Turkey doesn't end up with de facto control of much of Idlib now that they're in the province and cooperating with at least some of the groups there.
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Jan 7, 2018 01:30
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Sinteres posted:Now that ISIS is an extremely limited battlefield threat, it would be surprising if the regime couldn't concentrate forces in such a way that would allow it to make advances against the rebels. For a long time they were playing a game of letting one front languish while they made advances on another, as when Palmyra fell again during the capture of Aleppo, and when they had to shuttle forces back to Idlib from the ISIS front every time HTS launched a new assault north of Hama. Now that the regime isn't stretched as thin anymore, particularly since the southern front is also quiet these days, that concentrated force can be focused on Idlib in more than just an ad hoc/reactive basis. Erdogan's harsh words for the regime lately may also be providing an incentive to speed things up so Turkey doesn't end up with de facto control of much of Idlib now that they're in the province and cooperating with at least some of the groups there. Doesn't really change anything because Assad was already shuttling everything he could away from the ISIS fronts. Now, if anything, he has to garrison more territory.
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Jan 7, 2018 03:41
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Warbadger posted:Doesn't really change anything because Assad was already shuttling everything he could away from the ISIS fronts. Now, if anything, he has to garrison more territory. That's true now, and was true during the battle for Aleppo/at times before that, but wasn't true for most of the last year as they raced the SDF to grab territory. Now they can shift their attention back to the other rebels, and we're seeing the results. When the regime isn't stretched thin fighting on multiple fronts, its air power makes a big difference. The rebels seem to be trying to neutralize that with drone attacks on Russian planes at their bases, so it'll be interesting to see if that ends up being an enduring issue or if it only worked the first time because it was unexpected. My impression is that local militias end up doing the bulk of garrisoning duties, and even if they fail now and then, as when ISIS captured a city behind regime lines a month or two ago, the level of threat ISIS poses at this moment is much smaller than it's been in years, meaning those efforts can be contained. Maybe ISIS find a way to transition back to an insurgency, but their inability to recruit foreign fighters, and demonstrated failure at their ambition of statehood, seems like a pretty significant limiting factor for now.
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Jan 7, 2018 05:29
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I don't think anyone has yet posted the damage to the planes during the alleged drone bombing of the Russian airport. Here's what it looked like:  Second one is supposedly shrapnel damage to a fuel tank. I'm not an expert but both look like they could have been caused by a light mortar round. The kind of thing a homemade drone could carry.
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Jan 7, 2018 06:23
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Now imagine those things mass produced and networked with independent targeting AI.
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Jan 7, 2018 11:23
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Squalid posted:I don't think anyone has yet posted the damage to the planes during the alleged drone bombing of the Russian airport. Here's what it looked like: who's supposed to be releasing these photos? russian airmen with poor impulse control around social media? GhostofJohnMuir fucked around with this message at 12:20 on Jan 7, 2018 |
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Jan 7, 2018 12:16
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lollontee posted:Now imagine those things mass produced and networked with independent targeting AI. lol not again
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Jan 7, 2018 12:25
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https://twitter.com/watanisy/status/949930678300348416 SAA keeping up the breakneck pace with this weeks rapid advance northwards towards Sinjar e: to illustrate 01.01  07.01  lollontee posted:Now imagine those things mass produced and networked with independent targeting AI. That was a good black mirror episode Bohemian Nights fucked around with this message at 13:00 on Jan 7, 2018 |
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Jan 7, 2018 12:54
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It's gonna be a fun fun decade for AI programmers. All kinds of new and interesting ways of killing people.
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Jan 7, 2018 14:11
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Personally, I think that the proliferation of what is effectively cheap, easily manufactured, guided mortars is momentous enough without diving into Clancy territory. gently caress, imagine what the IRA would have gotten up to with drone bombs.
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Jan 7, 2018 16:03
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Haystack posted:Personally, I think that the proliferation of what is effectively cheap, easily manufactured, guided mortars is momentous enough without diving into Clancy territory. Yeah I've long thought that we've been ridiculously lucky and long overdue in seeing any kind of armanent carrying drone used in a domestic terrorism situation https://twitter.com/aronlund/status/950006103701643264 "A senior Western official told @ibrahimhamidi that the United States is planning to unveil a new strategy for the SDF-held areas of Syria, which may include some form of diplomatic recognition." I wonder what this is all about
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Jan 7, 2018 16:08
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What Clancy territory?  Autonomous drone warfare is in the books regardless, the question remaining is will it make an appearance in Syria already. Being that the physical tech seems to me capable of supporting it, imho the only thing standing in the way is designing and teaching the neural network software itself. How difficult that's going to be is an open question.
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Jan 7, 2018 16:14
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Drone swarms are already a reality, at least in entertainment, since they've been programmed to make formations in the sky as a visual spectacle in at least the US and China. I'm sure people in both countries, and beyond, have put some serious thought into how that could be used for military purposes.
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Jan 7, 2018 16:27
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lollontee posted:What Clancy territory? Drones are already a major part of modern warfare. The only question anymore is really how long until we are actually seeing existing drone tech applied to combat situations. Mass produced consumer grade tech is plenty for the task and extremely cheap for what it is.
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Jan 7, 2018 16:50
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This seems to be a good explainer on what's happening in Iran https://twitter.com/h0d3r/status/949664062132113408
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Jan 7, 2018 18:42
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tekz posted:This seems to be a good explainer on what's happening in Iran That's interesting (and the 2nd time we've seen a long twitter thread talking about Rouhani being a major contender for Supreme Leader, something which I haven't seen anywhere else) but it doesn't actually explain anything. Its really hard to know exactly whats going on inside Iran and what the motives of the protesters were, but this guy doesn't even address that. I've read elsewhere that it was hardliners who may have started the protests, only to have them get well out of their control and become more general. That they spread so rapidly shows there's real discontent in the country, and not over something so abstract as possible nominations for a position once someone else dies.
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Jan 7, 2018 19:12
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Yeah it's hard to imagine the hardliners actually wanted to see people in the streets chanting for an end to the Islamic Republic and to stop worrying about Syria and Palestine unless you want to get into weird territory with false flag provacateurs and poo poo.
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Jan 7, 2018 19:14
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tekz posted:This seems to be a good explainer on what's happening in Iran That's an interesting read so it deserves a more legible presentation that a twitter thread. Plus, Twitter's permanency can't be relied upon. Hossein Derakhshan posted:Recent unrests in Iran were neither entirely about inequality, nor fully about democracy. They were more about one thing: Succession to the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. #Iran #IranProtests Count Roland posted:Its really hard to know exactly whats going on inside Iran and what the motives of the protesters were, but this guy doesn't even address that. I've read elsewhere that it was hardliners who may have started the protests, only to have them get well out of their control and become more general. That they spread so rapidly shows there's real discontent in the country, and not over something so abstract as possible nominations for a position once someone else dies. It's my impression too: something that might have been started by hardliners but if so it then backfired on them. Cat Mattress fucked around with this message at 19:18 on Jan 7, 2018 |
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Jan 7, 2018 19:16
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More talk about limited recognition for Northern Syria. I'm sure Turkey and Iraq will be thrilled. https://twitter.com/e_sklt/status/950071682554826752
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Jan 7, 2018 20:22
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lollontee posted:It's gonna be a fun fun decade for AI programmers. All kinds of new and interesting ways of killing people. Most of the research has already been done because of cars, depending on what you are talking about, autonomous drones is an easier problem than autonomous cars. If someone like the US wanted to they could probably roll something out within a year or so at least in a basic concept. Friend vs Foe would be the hardest part and in a lot of circumstances you could make that issue irrelevant. Haystack posted:Personally, I think that the proliferation of what is effectively cheap, easily manufactured, guided mortars is momentous enough without diving into Clancy territory. There's nothing at all Clancy about this poo poo, the average persons knowledge on AI and similar poo poo tends to be about 5 years in the past from my experience. The thing about all of it is while it is very complicated, you don't have to be a super genius to use the off the shelf stuff. Like stuff that would have been essentially impossible 5-10 years ago (eg using image recognition to unlock a door) is a hobby level thing today, and that's a simple example. It's kinda like the internet in the mid 90's -- it was just a toy for nerds, until it wasn't.
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Jan 7, 2018 20:30
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It's pretty much impossible for Rouhani to become Supreme Leader. The assembly that elects the leader chose Jannati, perhaps the most reviled hardline politician, as its speaker, and the terms of the current assembly should last well past the end of Khamenei's life.
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Jan 7, 2018 20:35
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lollontee posted:Now imagine those things mass produced and networked with independent targeting AI. We have that already, it's called smart missiles / smart bombs / smart shells.
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Jan 7, 2018 20:39
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The conspiracy theory about MBS being a goon may have been confirmed: https://twitter.com/swin24/status/950078625205932032
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Jan 7, 2018 20:40
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steinrokkan posted:We have that already, it's called smart missiles / smart bombs / smart shells. Those aren't readily available in produced or even improvised form to small groups or individuals, so I don't think you can really compare the incredible industrial output recquired for a smart missile to the circuit board and assembled plastic you need for a drone Sinteres posted:The conspiracy theory about MBS being a goon may have been confirmed: I knew paradox games in the wrong hands could lead to disastrous results
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Jan 7, 2018 20:49
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Bohemian Nights posted:Those aren't readily available in produced or even improvised form to small groups or individuals, so I don't think you can really compare the incredible industrial output recquired for a smart missile to the circuit board and assembled plastic you need for a drone Called it, MbS literally thinks this is HoI4 Millenium Dawn
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Jan 7, 2018 21:07
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anyone born after 1983 is a video game player
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Jan 7, 2018 21:08
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Bohemian Nights posted:Those aren't readily available in produced or even improvised form to small groups or individuals, so I don't think you can really compare the incredible industrial output recquired for a smart missile to the circuit board and assembled plastic you need for a drone
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Jan 7, 2018 21:18
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Rent-A-Cop posted:That doesn't make it the new omgwtf Earth shattering technology people are hurfing about though. Autonomous or semi-autonomous flying weapons are a 50+ year old technology. It's just now cheap and simple enough for the Toyotas and AKs crowd. Internal combustion engines being 50+ years old didn't make the Model T any less of a game-changer. Process and implementation count for a lot.
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Jan 7, 2018 21:23
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Willie Tomg posted:Internal combustion engines being 50+ years old didn't make the Model T any less of a game-changer. Process and implementation count for a lot. Idk, grenades and air hogs have both been out for quite a while. I don't think duct taping them together is particularly innovative.
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Jan 7, 2018 21:27
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Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia keeps losing aircraft over Yemen. https://twitter.com/MbKS15/status/950031626041520128/photo/1
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Jan 7, 2018 21:52
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Volkerball posted:Idk, grenades and air hogs have both been out for quite a while. I don't think duct taping them together is particularly innovative. The issue is they have become more ubiquitous. Aircraft had been around for 30 years when Guernica was bombed, fuse bombs had been around for 100, but the combination of the two on a large scale marked a transition in tactics.
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Jan 7, 2018 21:57
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And the iPod was an early-gen SSD and the cheapest firmware and screen money could buy sold for Too Much Money. Innovation is inherently iterative. That is literally the distinction between innovation and invention. Various insurgent coalitions have already established assembly lines in battlefield conditions to retrofit vehicles into APCs and mass produce rockets, they already coordinate tactical movements and fire support with a spotter drone overhead. One day someone's gonna scale that implementation up when they realize a dozen cheap drones dropping mortars on a precise area are a hell of a lot more sustainable and repeatable and difficult to stop than an ISIS suicide tank driving over open terrain. That they haven't made that obvious step is representative of America's dirty little secret, unspoken in even the darkest halls of power: the subscribers to the medieval ideology we've at all turns failed to defeat for twenty years now are actually not very quick on the uptake it turns out
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Jan 7, 2018 22:02
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Willie Tomg posted:And the iPod was an early-gen SSD and the cheapest firmware and screen money could buy sold for Too Much Money. Innovation is inherently iterative. That is literally the distinction between innovation and invention. Uh, they have made the obvious atep. Or did you forget all those articles about ISIS using dozens of drones to drop mortars all the loving time during Mosul and Raqqa?
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Jan 7, 2018 22:07
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