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Anything that makes Erdogan mad is good. He so desperately wants his caliphate back.
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Jan 15, 2018 19:26
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i guess its just discouraging thinking about rojava falling since they've given so much hope to leftists all around the world. the whole democratic confederalism deal they're implementing is really really promising.
Kanine fucked around with this message at 06:04 on Jan 16, 2018 |
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Jan 15, 2018 20:10
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Blut posted:Letting them through is win/win for Assad really. Any conflict in Afrin will distract Erodgan from Idlib while also bleeding the SDF. Having a semi autonomous Kurdish region in northern Syria gives a bit of a buffer between Assad and Erdogan. Especially if US support keeps up for the SDF. Hardly ideal to have that buffer zone be in your own country though.
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Jan 15, 2018 20:22
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Looks like RuAF jets are showing up more in Idlib more than they have been since the Idlib offensive began.
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Jan 16, 2018 03:25
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so like what's the us government justification for supporting rojava? it just seems out of character for the american government to be supporting a fledgling leftwing democracy like this tbh is it just purely a common enemies thing or is it more nefarious
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Jan 16, 2018 06:24
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It’s hard being an imperialist power without an army on the ground. They tried to arm ‘moderate FSA’ rebels at first but pivoted to the SDF when hardcore islamists kept taking the weapons they supplied to the FSA It’s a marriage of convenance. They’ll turn on Rojava as soon as it’s beneficial
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Jan 16, 2018 06:29
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A Typical Goon posted:It’s hard being an imperialist power without an army on the ground. They tried to arm ‘moderate FSA’ rebels at first but pivoted to the SDF when hardcore islamists kept taking the weapons they supplied to the FSA guess that's as good of a real reason as any when im arguing tankies on leftbook groups who have a hateboner for rojava but excuse the ussr for accepting us aid during ww2
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Jan 16, 2018 07:31
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A Typical Goon posted:It’s hard being an imperialist power without an army on the ground. They tried to arm ‘moderate FSA’ rebels at first but pivoted to the SDF when hardcore islamists kept taking the weapons they supplied to the FSA Agreed, likely, based on previous US actions. However, at least during the Trump administration under McMaster, they seem pretty behind this horse. If Iraq and Turkey stop allowing movement of supplies, then maybe they make an arrangement to sell them out. This isn’t the Hmong, and the US is still backing The Kurds in Iraq, and has been for nearly 30 years.
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Jan 16, 2018 07:48
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The Kurds in Iraq aren’t socialist though. I’d say generally the ‘tankies’ have the right of it when talking about American foreign policy or imperialism. However they don’t understand or accept the concept of realpolitik at all. Rojava and American interests in the region will inevitably clash, but at the current time the SDF is the only current reliable partner for America in the region, and America is the only party willing to arm the SDF. The Americans support Rojava despite them being socialists. The SDF accept American aid despite them being imperialists. If there was other options available to either party I’m sure they’d be hostile to each other as their long term goals are inherently contradictory. It’s a short term alliance forced on both parties by the conditions on the ground
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Jan 16, 2018 08:04
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A Typical Goon posted:The Kurds in Iraq aren’t socialist though. I’d say generally the ‘tankies’ have the right of it when talking about American foreign policy or imperialism. However they don’t understand or accept the concept of realpolitik at all. Rojava and American interests in the region will inevitably clash, but at the current time the SDF is the only current reliable partner for America in the region, and America is the only party willing to arm the SDF. maybe because the cold war is over the us gov will just target muslim extremists and quit targeting leftists and will start to baahahahahaha i couldnt finish that without laughing my rear end off
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Jan 16, 2018 10:36
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Is Turkey's government still going ahead with the rebuild of the barracks in Gezi Park, or is it now in limbo? Its been a while since the protests and the intentions to build it.
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Jan 16, 2018 18:15
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Quixotic1 posted:Is Turkey's government still going ahead with the rebuild of the barracks in Gezi Park, or is it now in limbo? Its been a while since the protests and the intentions to build it. No idea what's in the planning, but at least about a year ago when I was there, there was absolutely nothing hinting at construction or changes. I'm surprised they haven't torn up Taksim Square, as it's a huge eyesore even in winter/fall/spring, and it must be a brutally hot baking nightmare all summer.
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Jan 16, 2018 18:51
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A Typical Goon posted:The Americans support Rojava despite them being socialists. The SDF accept American aid despite them being imperialists. If there was other options available to either party I’m sure they’d be hostile to each other as their long term goals are inherently contradictory. It’s a short term alliance forced on both parties by the conditions on the ground The YPG is presently dominated by its partnership with the US but is also wisely cultivating relationships with Russia and Damascus while not burning any bridges that aren't already burnt (Turkey). I think Assad's army is exhausted, although that is not true for Hezbollah and the Iranian militias, and the SDF may be reaching the point where they won't be wiped out as soon as American protection slips. But I have been hearing 'this is short term, this is short term, this is short term' for years now regarding the YPG/US relationship yet at every step the two factions only seem to be getting closer together to the point where the US is talking about diplomatic recognition and training a substantially sized border guard and pledging to not leave 'until ISIS is defeated (never)'. At what point does an alliance of convenience transition to an actual partnership? And even if we're talking convenience the East Euphrates region offers a natural counter to the expansion of Iranian influence by throttling the land route from Iran to Syria. What other options does the US have?
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Jan 16, 2018 19:11
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Brother Friendship posted:The YPG is presently dominated by its partnership with the US but is also wisely cultivating relationships with Russia and Damascus while not burning any bridges that aren't already burnt (Turkey). I think Assad's army is exhausted, although that is not true for Hezbollah and the Iranian militias, and the SDF may be reaching the point where they won't be wiped out as soon as American protection slips. But I have been hearing 'this is short term, this is short term, this is short term' for years now regarding the YPG/US relationship yet at every step the two factions only seem to be getting closer together to the point where the US is talking about diplomatic recognition and training a substantially sized border guard and pledging to not leave 'until ISIS is defeated (never)'. At what point does an alliance of convenience transition to an actual partnership? And even if we're talking convenience the East Euphrates region offers a natural counter to the expansion of Iranian influence by throttling the land route from Iran to Syria. What other options does the US have? The Korean War is technically sixty-five years young. Do not underestimate the ability of people to tolerate insanely hosed up statuses quo until they fail in the most catastrophic way possible.
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Jan 16, 2018 19:26
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Sinteres posted:It might be a bad idea for Assad to do this just because it will make Erdogan angry, but otherwise you'd think allowing it would be pretty much win/win. Either the Kurds take losses fighting off a Turkish incursion, preventing Erdogan from expanding his footprint which he'll probably be reluctant to ever retreat from after the war is over, or the YPG takes losses in a failed effort and weakens their position in the rest of the country. An update on this: https://twitter.com/civilwarmap/status/953217987154268160 quote:Confirmed Information: Syrian Democratic Forces from Cizire and Kobani Cantons are reinforcing Afrin through government held areas https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/953219127715430400 quote:They are trying to balance the forces between Manbij and Afrin to resist possible attacks by the turkish army Looks like the regime prefers the YPG/SDF over Euphrates Shield/Turkey. It makes sense: as Sinteres noted this is a win/win for the regime (I doubt Assad really gives a gently caress about pissing off Turkey at this point), the groups under Turkey's control are still rebels (as seen by some of then appearing with Turkish equipment in Idlib), and there's always the old resentment over Hatay province (and a fear of losing more land a la the Golan). Also, Afrin is not getting direct coalition support if this heats up: https://twitter.com/vvanwilgenburg/status/953209035964190720 quote:.@coalition spokesperson reaction towards possible Turkish attack on Efrin: "Afrin is not located within the Coalition's area of operations"
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Jan 16, 2018 21:10
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The Abu Duhur offensive and associated terror-bombing has displaced over 200,000 people in the space of a month https://twitter.com/OCHA_Syria/status/953385862749974529 quote:As a result of the ongoing hostilities, several incidents affecting civilians and civilian infrastructure were reported. The Health Cluster reported that an INGO-supported primary health (PHC) care facility in Heish sub-district in Idleb Governorate was impacted by an airstrike on 05 January. The attack resulted in structural damage rendering the facility out-of-service. On a monthly basis, the PHC provided an average of 5,700 consultations and 27 deliveries.
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Jan 16, 2018 23:59
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https://twitter.com/wef/status/953399734173143041
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Jan 17, 2018 00:35
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good on the waffle
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Jan 17, 2018 01:50
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https://twitter.com/K_Beckerle/status/953419487486857216
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Jan 17, 2018 03:20
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Saudi Arabia is committing genocide. Full stop.
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Jan 17, 2018 03:34
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Haystack posted:Saudi Arabia is committing genocide. Full stop. Against which group?
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Jan 17, 2018 04:00
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Count Roland posted:Against which group? the people of yemen as a whole seems pretty accurate
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Jan 17, 2018 04:49
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Genocide is a thing. Things can be unconscionable war crimes--such as using sarin on a civilian area, or using food as a weapon--without being genocide.
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Jan 17, 2018 05:16
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The Saudi Coalition has also advanced since Saleh's death on both the northern and southern fronts, pushing closer to the vital port of Hodeidah, threatening Houthi supply lines into Taiz and even moving into the Houthi's home province of Sa'dah on the Saudi border. As information from the war is so unreliable its hard to tell exactly how conseqential their gains are or if they are likely to be sustained now that the confusion from Saleh's death has somewhat passed. Here's a decent article on why Saleh got got so quick. It's by Al Jazeera though so as with everything to do with intra-Arab politics take with a grain of salt: http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/ali-abdullah-saleh-assassination-yemen-tribes-180111110844565.html Ali Abdullah Saleh's assassination and Yemen's tribes posted:It is believed that Saleh accumulated vast wealth during his time in power, but he certainly did not spend this money to keep his tribal allies happy after he left office. Most importantly, when the Houthis targeted and humiliated some of Saleh's tribal allies and loyal military officers, he did nothing to stop them. On the contrary, he continued to assure the public that his alliance with the Houthis was intact against the Saudi-led coalition. The Houthis exploited Saleh's mistakes extremely well, and gradually worked towards alienating him further from his remaining tribal allies.
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Jan 17, 2018 06:31
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Peace de Bundy posted:Anything that makes Erdogan mad is good. He so desperately wants his caliphate back. Yeah, no. What are you even on? What does Erdo have anything to do with a caliphate? almighty fucked around with this message at 09:27 on Jan 17, 2018 |
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Jan 17, 2018 09:24
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Willie Tomg posted:Genocide is a thing. Things can be unconscionable war crimes--such as using sarin on a civilian area, or using food as a weapon--without being genocide. This always devolves into one side using the technical/legal definition of genocide, and the others using an emotive/non-legal meaning, and the two sides screeching at each other about how the other is siding with the murderers or is too stupid to understand how lawyers talk, etc.
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Jan 17, 2018 09:55
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Count Roland posted:Against which group? Pretty much everybody in Yemen.
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Jan 17, 2018 10:00
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The UN definition includes: "Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part." I would argue the KSA campaign is designed, in absence of a military victory, to cause enough death to bring about a structural collapse of the Yemeni society and the end of Yemen as an entity capable of functioning independently, i.e. to affect a destruction of the nation in part, meeting the criteria for genocide.
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Jan 17, 2018 10:02
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Oh Jesus Christ, they're starving the Houthi, idiots. Did it somehow not penetrate that the Houthi are a distinct people? Or that the famine is way worse in the Houthi areas? Or that the entire war is explicitly about putting the filthy heretic Houthi under the boot? Everyone else is just collateral.
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Jan 17, 2018 13:15
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The rebels never seriously threatened to cut off the SAA salient in Idlib, but that ISIS tumor in Idlib seems to be metastasizing, and at least according to their own reports they've made some significant gains into that salient from the east. Even in 2018 it seems to be a bad move to ignore ISIS for too long.
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Jan 17, 2018 13:39
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Sinteres posted:The rebels never seriously threatened to cut off the SAA salient in Idlib, but that ISIS tumor in Idlib seems to be metastasizing, and at least according to their own reports they've made some significant gains into that salient from the east. Even in 2018 it seems to be a bad move to ignore ISIS for too long. Even without heavy weapons they remain a very potent and motivated light infantry force, forgetting this might doom this whole assault on the airbase. I don’t doubt the SAA can fight it’s way out of it, but it could mean pulling back their salient to something more reasonable. It seems that they still don’t have the manpower to do two offensives at once.
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Jan 17, 2018 17:40
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Haystack posted:Oh Jesus Christ, they're starving the Houthi, idiots. Did it somehow not penetrate that the Houthi are a distinct people? Or that the famine is way worse in the Houthi areas? Or that the entire war is explicitly about putting the filthy heretic Houthi under the boot? Everyone else is just collateral. The war was pretty explicitly about the Houthi (who the Iranians back) putting the boot to the filthy heretics the Saudis/Jews/Americans backed and regime changing Yemen. The Saudis joining admittedly made it a mutual thing.
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Jan 17, 2018 17:51
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Warbadger posted:The war was pretty explicitly about the Houthi (who the Iranians back) putting the boot to the filthy heretics the Saudis/Jews/Americans backed and regime changing Yemen. The Saudis joining admittedly made it a mutual thing. So does two groups of people trying to genocide each other cancel out, or what’s the idea?
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Jan 17, 2018 18:13
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Warbadger posted:The war was pretty explicitly about the Houthi (who the Iranians back) putting the boot to the filthy heretics the Saudis/Jews/Americans backed and regime changing Yemen. The Saudis joining admittedly made it a mutual thing. It’s also a historical country, but by seizing the capital(within the historical country IIRC) they sparked a civil war. If this conflict is to end it should end with the breaking up of Yemen. It actually seems to be the ideal endpoint for so many of these ethnic-religious civil wars. It worked well enough for Europe in general and the Balkans in particular.
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Jan 17, 2018 18:38
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Haystack posted:Oh Jesus Christ, they're starving the Houthi, idiots. Did it somehow not penetrate that the Houthi are a distinct people? Or that the famine is way worse in the Houthi areas? Or that the entire war is explicitly about putting the filthy heretic Houthi under the boot? Everyone else is just collateral. Please explain the Houthi Nation and how they are a distinct people. Sinteres posted:The rebels never seriously threatened to cut off the SAA salient in Idlib, but that ISIS tumor in Idlib seems to be metastasizing, and at least according to their own reports they've made some significant gains into that salient from the east. Even in 2018 it seems to be a bad move to ignore ISIS for too long. Seems like the Assadist plan of shipping ISIS fighters into the pocket to act as co-belligerents with them against the rebels is increasingly backfiring. Who could have seen that coming 
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Jan 17, 2018 19:24
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Radio Prune posted:Please explain the Houthi Nation and how they are a distinct people. You're asking us to debate what is and what isn't a legimate identity for a people to receive a degree of moral protection against being murdered en masse.
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Jan 17, 2018 19:35
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lollontee posted:You're asking us to debate what is and what isn't a legimate identity for a people to receive a degree of moral protection against being murdered en masse. Nah it was more me wondering how the militant group Ansar Allah are some sort of distinct ethno-religious people. It's like saying Turkey is waging a war against the distinct and persecuted Apoist minority. Radio Prune fucked around with this message at 19:47 on Jan 17, 2018 |
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Jan 17, 2018 19:42
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lollontee posted:You're asking us to debate what is and what isn't a legimate identity for a people to receive a degree of moral protection against being murdered en masse. Being murdered en mass is bad, obviously. But the definition of genocide requires some specific group of people to be targeted. You can't make it to a genocide by just killing enough people. I oppose the war in Yemen with ever fiber of my being, but from what I've seen it doesn't constitute a genocide.
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Jan 17, 2018 19:49
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Radio Prune posted:Seems like the Assadist plan of shipping ISIS fighters into the pocket to act as co-belligerents with them against the rebels is increasingly backfiring. Who could have seen that coming I would not be so sure that it's back firing. ISIS was no small factor in the collapse of the rebels east of the airbase and, even if they take Sinjar, that will give them another front against rebels while the Assadian forces that would be 'trapped' outside the airbase can do a joint push to unite with the Aleppo front. It might even be a boon if ISIS can take Sinjar so long as they can direct their attacks towards the rebels or absorb defections. If not, it would be relatively simple to wipe them out. They only have the heavy weapons they captured as spoils. That said maybe Sinjar falls and everyone outside the airbase dies  but I doubt it.
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Jan 17, 2018 20:03
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Radio Prune posted:Please explain the Houthi Nation and how they are a distinct people. They're a tribal confederation, which is very much a type of government (despite centuries of western sneering). They're largely Zaidi shia, a distinct cultural-religious sect. As far as I understand, they represent the large majority of that population. Radio Prune posted:Nah it was more me wondering how the militant group Ansar Allah are some sort of distinct ethno-religious people. Funny you should bring up Turkey, since the Armenians are kind of the ur-example of a religious minority getting genocided by an ethnically identical sectarian oppressor. Haystack fucked around with this message at 21:12 on Jan 17, 2018 |
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Jan 17, 2018 21:08
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