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Skies above Afrin
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Jan 20, 2018 17:52
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It's not an invasion yet
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Jan 20, 2018 20:29
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Things are about to get (more) depressing, isn't it
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Jan 20, 2018 20:41
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Well, we'll see won't we. But let's be honest here, absolutely everybody knew this was coming, YPG/SDF most of all. I'm guessing they've used every penny available to those fronts fortifying Afrin and Manbij since the day they took them. That's 5 years for Afrin Canton forces to pour concrete into bunkers. It'll be a real fight for Turkey, that's for sure.
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Jan 20, 2018 20:54
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NYT saying 72 turkish planes involved in the first round of sorties. Also there's an attack going down on the Kabul Intercontinental Hotel right now. Just to keep things interesting, I guess.
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Jan 20, 2018 21:48
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Darkman Fanpage posted:The operation name for the Turkish offensive in Afrin is Operation Olive Branch https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/954726836692553729 quote:Turkish Forces are officially calling their operation "Operation Olive Branch". https://twitter.com/taylieli/status/954724528554430465 quote:Report: #US Tillerson urgently phone-called #Turkish FM. ISIS are ever the opportunists, yesterday they attacked the SDF near Deir Ez Zor: https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/954466850062192645 quote:Islamic State started a big offensive against the Syrian Democratic Forces in Hasakah and at the Euphrates river Fighting continues today:  I honestly have no idea how this is going to turn out, this is one of the few times Turkey's bluster has turned into actual fighting. (Euphrates Shield was the previous time.) The YPG are at a disadvantage, but Turkey's previous efforts in Euphrates Shield were almost embarrassing in how long it took to actually take Al Bab. Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 22:03 on Jan 20, 2018 |
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Jan 20, 2018 22:01
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how nice of turkey to intervene only when it comes to its own selfish needs vis-a-vis the kurds and only after the Syrian revolution was thoroughly defeated, holy crap Erdogan sucks.
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Jan 20, 2018 22:01
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I wonder how much Erdogan really believes this is necessary and how much is him throwing a temper tantrum because he tried to trangiulate between Russia and the US and kind of got poo poo on by both sides.
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Jan 20, 2018 22:25
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I'm wondering whether he actually got clearance for this from Trump, because if not holy poo poo you can trust that guy to do something unpredictable.
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Jan 20, 2018 22:32
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Heres hoping a Kurdish Mannerheim emerges.
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Jan 20, 2018 22:36
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Blut posted:Heres hoping a Kurdish Mannerheim emerges. Only speaking Swedish and not the dominant language of his troops? Since Trump has the presidency i guess that might suffice for the allied with nazis part at least.
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Jan 20, 2018 22:43
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lollontee posted:Well, we'll see won't we. But let's be honest here, absolutely everybody knew this was coming, YPG/SDF most of all. I'm guessing they've used every penny available to those fronts fortifying Afrin and Manbij since the day they took them. That's 5 years for Afrin Canton forces to pour concrete into bunkers. It'll be a real fight for Turkey, that's for sure.  I don't think that matters. Here is a YPG fort.
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Jan 20, 2018 22:50
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For what it's worth, I think the Afrin Kurds are probably making a mistake by not cutting a deal with Assad, unless they have some indication from Russia that Erdogan's freedom of action won't be limitless. Assad's dangerous too of course, but he's shown a willingness to compromise with them in the past, and still has reason to play good cop if he ever wants some kind of reunion with Rojava. It's unclear how many ground troops Turkey's willing to commit, but my suspicion is that even fighting their proxies isn't going to be too fun while they're backed by the Turkish air force. Edit: See above.
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Jan 20, 2018 22:50
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Sinteres posted:I wonder how much Erdogan really believes this is necessary and how much is him throwing a temper tantrum because he tried to trangiulate between Russia and the US and kind of got poo poo on by both sides. If Turkey had a different leader there would be the same conflict. Turkey doesn't differentiate between the SDF/YPG/PKK/TAK. It's all the same organization that blows up people in Istanbul and threatens the territorial integrity of the Turkish state. Really no country would believe that changing a terrorist organizations name would make it alright to have them being armed and controling territory on your border.
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Jan 20, 2018 22:57
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lol @ the idea kurds are somehow the bad guys in this situation
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Jan 20, 2018 23:11
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Kanine posted:lol @ the idea kurds are somehow the bad guys in this situation I never said that they are the bad guys. Though they are not good guys either at best better than other factions in a civil war.
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Jan 20, 2018 23:30
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Wait what does ISIS even have left in Syria? What would they even be attacking with? 
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Jan 20, 2018 23:31
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https://twitter.com/i/moments/953560648310493184
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Jan 20, 2018 23:36
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Lawman 0 posted:Wait what does ISIS even have left in Syria? If what they had left was a pushover entirely, the Euphrates would have been swept clean of them. Their pocket in Hama has probably quadrupled in the last week or so. They are very motivated light infantry who are fighting against enemies who aren’t, for the most part.
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Jan 20, 2018 23:48
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It really is weird that both the SAA and SDF finished blocking each other off from territory the other might conceivably want on the Euphrates (the SAA most obviously wanted DeZ city, and the SDF most obviously wanted the oil fields), and then more or less decided to stop bothering to finish off ISIS. The SAA obviously moved on to enemies closer to home (though they allowed ISIS to spread there to gently caress with HTS too), but until Turkey invaded the YPG didn't have anyone else to fight, and the rebels the US brought over from Tanf presumably don't give a poo poo about Afrin anyway. To be fair, there's stil a chunk of desert Iraq hasn't bothered to clear yet too, so maybe they're all just hoping ISIS will suddenly give up or something, idk. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 23:56 on Jan 20, 2018 |
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Jan 20, 2018 23:52
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Al-Saqr posted:how nice of turkey to intervene only when it comes to its own selfish needs vis-a-vis the kurds and only after the Syrian revolution was thoroughly defeated, holy crap Erdogan sucks. al-saqr welcome to the #resistance Sinteres posted:For what it's worth, I think the Afrin Kurds are probably making a mistake by not cutting a deal with Assad, unless they have some indication from Russia that Erdogan's freedom of action won't be limitless. Assad's dangerous too of course, but he's shown a willingness to compromise with them in the past, and still has reason to play good cop if he ever wants some kind of reunion with Rojava. It's unclear how many ground troops Turkey's willing to commit, but my suspicion is that even fighting their proxies isn't going to be too fun while they're backed by the Turkish air force. it sucks but Afrin was always going to be thrown to the wolves when the time came and this is the obvious fate for the East Euphrates region unless the US really does refuse to back down from supporting them
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Jan 21, 2018 00:43
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axelord posted:I never said that they are the bad guys. Though they are not good guys either at best better than other factions in a civil war. Um, actually they are the bestest of guys and have never done anything bad.
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Jan 21, 2018 01:18
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Al-Saqr posted:how nice of turkey to intervene only when it comes to its own selfish needs vis-a-vis the kurds and only after the Syrian revolution was thoroughly defeated, holy crap Erdogan sucks. That coup pilot should have taken the shot when he had the chance.
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Jan 21, 2018 01:21
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Vernii posted:That coup pilot should have taken the shot when he had the chance. I hate Erdogan and the Turkish government as well but have people noticed white dudes taking a strange sort of glee with how much they hate him? I feel like I've noticed this for a long while. What is that? You don't see it quite on the same level with other tyrants of similar scumminess. Like there's no one getting off QUITE as much on how viscerally they hate say, Sisi or MBS as much as Erdo.
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Jan 21, 2018 01:36
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Punkin Spunkin posted:Would that have really changed Turkish policy vis a vis the Kurds? Why exactly do you think white dudes prefer Sisi or MBS to Erdogan? My theory for why people might not like Erdogan is that he's singlehandedly overseen a dramatic shift in Turkey in which it became far less Western-friendly, and established a cult of personality built around himself. Yeah, some people don't like him because he's a (moderate) Islamist, but I personally feel more disappointed that as an Islamist leader given an opportunity to govern arguably the most successful Muslim-majority country in the world, he didn't do a better job to show that it's possible to do so without abandoning the liberalism he also promised. Plus he looked the other way (at best) as ISIS was using his country to bring in recruits, more actively helped Nusra, and is waging war on the US-backed group in Syria, so it's understandable why Americans might not love the guy.
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Jan 21, 2018 01:52
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Punkin Spunkin posted:Would that have really changed Turkish policy vis a vis the Kurds? Erdogan somehow got himself on the level of Putin or Trump, where its almost expected to froth at the mouth when talking about him. I have no explanation though. Sisi should be at the very top of any hater's list imo; gunning down a thousand unarmed protesters in the streets is quite the thing.
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Jan 21, 2018 02:03
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Yeah, I guess it's also an association with the refugee crisis, being more well known on the whole, European aspirations, and also I suppose the type of people who see Putin as a defender of white civilization would also be particularly concerned with the Encroaching Turk (just like in their strategy games and entry level history nerd-dom!!) Also maybe YPG popularity in the west. Again just a weird observation, I think Erdogan deserves the hate it just feels like people get particularly visceral and passionate with how much they hate him compared to a lot of similar leaders around the world doing poo poo just as bad or worse.
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Jan 21, 2018 02:08
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My explanation is that he switched sides, and Turkey, once an "acceptable" lynchpin has gone rogue. Also, commentary about China and Xi in particular has changed drastically .Putin himself is divisive for a number of reasons. Basically, opinions are somewhere at their base are often geopolitically fueled.
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Jan 21, 2018 02:16
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I think people react more strongly to regression than to stagnation. Sisi didn't change Egypt, it was already a repressive military dictatorship. Erdogan changed Turkey, and he's making it less democratic and less secular.
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Jan 21, 2018 02:35
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Cat Mattress posted:I think people react more strongly to regression than to stagnation. Sisi didn't change Egypt, it was already a repressive military dictatorship. Erdogan changed Turkey, and he's making it less democratic and less secular. Yea, Turkey seemed like it was on a pretty good track again, even in Erdogan's early days, but that's all been thrown in the trash by his regime. Toss in the unreliability towards NATO, aggression towards American interests, and the fact that the world came so close to not having to deal with him in the first place, and I think its easy to understand why he's more hated than a generic dictator like Sisi.
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Jan 21, 2018 02:52
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Compared to Turkey, Saudi, Iran and Israel, Egypt also has a really light foreign policy footprint (because it's basically a failing state that lives off of charity). How did that "30,000 strong border force" idea get put forward, anyway? Was it trying to bait Turkey? What other outcome did everyone expect?
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Jan 21, 2018 03:01
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Squalid posted:I think they would say they want "fair representation." Pashtun guys like Hekmatyar would probably say the same thing. Old post but felt the need to point out that Afghanistan's high corruption is a relatively modern development, it only started rising with the influx of American funding and foreign aid. Like the country's opium output, its a problem that can be traced to American bungling and arrogance.
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Jan 21, 2018 03:09
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Cat Mattress posted:I think people react more strongly to regression than to stagnation. Sisi didn't change Egypt, it was already a repressive military dictatorship. Erdogan changed Turkey, and he's making it less democratic and less secular. Ehhhh there was still some hope for the Egyptian Revolution before Sisi crushed it more brutally than Turkey's comparable protests. I think the secular/religious contrast and geopolitical usefulness for the US are much better explanations. Anyway, I will be interested in how the Turkish offensive goes considering the Kurds are well dug in Afrin, and almost certainly western trained men (and at least some equipment) are going to be shuttled over there. (I wonder what ATGM/tank match-ups we will be seeing maybe some TOWs versus T-60/Leopard 2 A4s?)
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Jan 21, 2018 03:26
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Vernii posted:That coup pilot should have taken the shot when he had the chance. Lmao, if he had taken the shot, then Turkey would have invaded Rojava a lot sooner. Erdogan has been far better for Kurds than pretty much any Turkish leader since Ottoman times.
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Jan 21, 2018 04:11
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OctaMurk posted:Lmao, if he had taken the shot, then Turkey would have invaded Rojava a lot sooner. Erdogan has been far better for Kurds than pretty much any Turkish leader since Ottoman times. O_o
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Jan 21, 2018 04:47
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He’s not really wrong though. If you think that the insane fascist junta that would have been produced by a successful coup wouldnt have been as bad as Erdogan you’re nuts icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 06:33 on Jan 21, 2018 |
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Jan 21, 2018 06:30
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icantfindaname posted:He’s not really wrong though. If you think that the insane fascist junta that would have been produced by a successful coup wouldnt have been as bad as Erdogan you’re nuts One of the advantages of the AKP early on was that they actually managed to pull in quite alot of Kurdish votes for their party in elections, something the CHP and the MHP (which should come as no loving surprise) are completely incapable of doing and also pretty much completely unwilling to even consider. Ardennes posted:Anyway, I will be interested in how the Turkish offensive goes considering the Kurds are well dug in Afrin, and almost certainly western trained men (and at least some equipment) are going to be shuttled over there. Didn't Turkish armored troops go into Syria or Iraq a year or two ago? I remember they fought ISIS and got their butts kicked. Don't really know how the SDF, possibly without air cover that has been so important to their success against ISIS will fare, but like ISIS they at least likely have the well-motivated fighters part down which seems to be very important in actually producing effective fighting forces rather than just disorganized bands of armed men. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 12:14 on Jan 21, 2018 |
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Jan 21, 2018 12:10
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icantfindaname posted:He’s not really wrong though. If you think that the insane fascist junta that would have been produced by a successful coup wouldnt have been as bad as Erdogan you’re nuts So you're saying it's a race war.
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Jan 21, 2018 12:18
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lollontee posted:So you're saying it's a race war. Turkey vs the Kurds? Pretty much yeah
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Jan 21, 2018 12:29
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Well looks like it really has started. The first Afrin village has been captured. https://twitter.com/op_shield/status/955029402907217920
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Jan 21, 2018 12:45
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