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There's definitely a bubble and it's definitely going to pop, but don't try to predict when or how. "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
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Jan 23, 2018 21:22
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I don't think you get how bad this is. GPU prices are inflated by double because miners are literally purchasing entire stores' worth of GPU stock when they can. Retailers are dropping all pretense of giving a poo poo about gamers because these things are flying off the goddamn shelves despite being twice MSRP. The only definitive solution to this is a massive outlawing of cryptocurrencies. Nvidia saying "stop letting people buy more than two GPUs at once" could work at least a bit but that's not going to happen because lol unrestrained capitalism, so if you didn't manage to snag a 10x0 of some sort before this you're gonna be buying consoles from now on. That or someone needs to invent a Lyra2 ASIC, but IIRC Lyra2 is one of those ASIC-resistant ones (though scrypt was supposed to be, and look at how that turned out).
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Jan 23, 2018 21:22
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Yeah this poo poo has been going on for a year and shows no sign of letting up.  PC gaming
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Jan 23, 2018 21:32
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GamersNexus already did a piece that less of the pricing has to do with mining than you'd think. Who knows what Nvidia is telling board partners in confidential discussions, but they don't want to manufacture Pascal forever even if they apparently could at this point. That means manufacture is going to slow down to produce Ampere. Mining or no mining, every card is going to be like $30-40 more expensive than it would have been some time ago because of RAM prices. The world seems to be collectively running out of memory. Obviously that increase will be stronger felt on a $200 card than a $500 card. What we also know is that it's not Warren Buffett and T Boone Pickens clearing out Micro Center, it seems to mostly be middle class douchebags who think every GPU is make-money-fast.txt, and even if they refinance their house to buy more video cards they're going to have spent all the money they have on them eventually. The other thing that can happen is that the companies that manufacture this poo poo just give up on retail and start getting into direct sales. EVGA already kind of does, and Asus does in foreign markets. Craptacular! fucked around with this message at 21:43 on Jan 23, 2018 |
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Jan 23, 2018 21:37
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Careful Drums posted:oh, i see. that makes me even more confident that the prices of video cards will drop sharply in the near future. What's your reasoning?
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Jan 23, 2018 21:47
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Ampere's x70/x80 pricing is likely going to be $529-579 and $649-729 and people will ~applaud~ nVidia for it. The fact that 1050Tis are going for $280+ now when for a while they were remaining pretty static at ~$150-175 means desperation is in play now. I bet I could get $100 for the 560Tis I have, but instead I have to keep them in reserve as emergency GPUs because everyone who isn't mining has to be all  about the thought of their GPU dying.
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Jan 23, 2018 21:50
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Craptacular! posted:The other thing that can happen is that the companies that manufacture this poo poo just give up on retail and start getting into direct sales. EVGA already kind of does, and Asus does in foreign markets. This seems to be a sensible next step. Not only does it allow NVidia and AIBs to better control the spread of cards by enforcing purchase restrictions (or at least making it far more annoying to collect cards), but it allows them to move the profits up the food chain by allowing the AIBs to take a bigger cut and/or provide something of a price ceiling. But, yeah, a lot of this seems to be a result of the unfortunate confluence of higher RAM prices, tail-end-generation lower chip production, and a sudden spike in mining profitability. Comedy option: NVidia makes Ampere only work with a new generation of drivers which refuse to boot if more than 2 cards are detected in a system. 3/4-way SLI is dead anyhow, right?
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Jan 23, 2018 21:52
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About how long after the 70/80s drop do you see the ti cards come out?
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Jan 23, 2018 21:53
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DrDork posted:This seems to be a sensible next step. Not only does it allow NVidia and AIBs to better control the spread of cards by enforcing purchase restrictions (or at least making it far more annoying to collect cards), but it allows them to move the profits up the food chain by allowing the AIBs to take a bigger cut and/or provide something of a price ceiling. But, yeah, a lot of this seems to be a result of the unfortunate confluence of higher RAM prices, tail-end-generation lower chip production, and a sudden spike in mining profitability. ...Now that would be interesting. Only allowing one card of a generation in a high power state in a consumer machine. Would allow for gaming, and gimp the ability to run efficient mining without killing people who just want more video outputs.
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Jan 23, 2018 21:54
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VostokProgram posted:Maybe the feds will crack down on cryptocurrencies. Someone just needs to go to Trump and tell him they're used by criminals and terrorists. "Mr. President, look what Obama just posted on his Facebook." 
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Jan 23, 2018 22:08
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BIG HEADLINE posted:Ampere's x70/x80 pricing is likely going to be $529-579 and $649-729 and people will ~applaud~ nVidia for it. Even if they do, if there's an appreciable improvement in hashrate or energy efficiency then miners will pay it and replace their Pascal cards for more efficient mining. Which means Pascal cards on the second hand market, which isn't a bad thing to buy because their BIOS haven't been flashed to run it at molten temperatures.
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Jan 23, 2018 22:12
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Craptacular! posted:GamersNexus already did a piece that less of the pricing has to do with mining than you'd think. Who knows what Nvidia is telling board partners in confidential discussions, but they don't want to manufacture Pascal forever even if they apparently could at this point. That means manufacture is going to slow down to produce Ampere. I'm not sure why your take away from that video is that mining has less to do with it than we think. Yes the card prices will rise $20-$40 due to increase RAM prices, but that doesn't explain cards rising in price between 50%-100%, that has to be linked directly to supply and demand issues due to the mining craze and Steven even says as much. He also mentioned that these board partners order chips at the beginning of the quarter. I hope GPU prices return to normal soon so people because between this and RAM it's really tough to build a PC within a normal budget for a lot of folks. I have a bad feeling this crypto poo poo is gonna stick around longer than it did last year.
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Jan 23, 2018 22:27
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Parallelwoody posted:About how long after the 70/80s drop do you see the ti cards come out? 6 months to a year. The Tis generally fill the market segment gap after a year when Nvidia doesn't have real new hardware to release but needs something new on shelves. If Nvidia releases an ~1000 dollar Ampere Titan I might end up getting that instead of trying to find a Ampere X80. I can't afford 3000 dollars for a Titan, but the difference between 700 and 1000 is small enough that videocard shortages have started to make that seem like a good option. Who knows what they'll do, is the Titan now exclusively for introductory pro use or will they have a consumer one that happens to do pro stuff again?
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Jan 23, 2018 22:29
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B-Mac posted:I'm not sure why your take away from that video is that mining has less to do with it than we think. Yes the card prices will rise $20-$40 due to increase RAM prices, but that doesn't explain cards rising in price between 50%-100%, that has to be linked directly to supply and demand issues due to the mining craze and Steven even says as much. He also mentioned that these board partners order chips at the beginning of the quarter. The point is there is no apocalypse of PC gaming like was being described at the page break. It's that manufacturing doesn't turn on a dime and everyone involved is looking after their own nut. Prices will recover, but they aren't going to recover to people who assume $50 rebates and a AAA game.
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Jan 23, 2018 23:11
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Truga posted:Basically, you mine this or that altcoin on gpus today and it's more profitable than mining bitcoins could be today on any device. Almost every day there's a new altcoin which people mine, then pump and dump, forever and ever. How can Bitcoin keep working long term if it isn’t worth mining? Wouldn’t the whole thing grind to a halt?
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Jan 23, 2018 23:33
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dissss posted:How can Bitcoin keep working long term if it isn’t worth mining? Wouldn’t the whole thing grind to a halt? Isn't worth mining on a GPU. Dedicated Mining hardware is a different story, and its mostly used for Chinese money laundering.
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Jan 23, 2018 23:36
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dissss posted:How can Bitcoin keep working long term if it isn’t worth mining? Wouldn’t the whole thing grind to a halt? In the long run it was always Bitcoin's plan to stop giving out coins for mining and have people charge transaction fees instead
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Jan 23, 2018 23:36
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AMD announced it's replacements for Raja.quote:The new appointments are Mike Rayfield, who’s joining AMD as senior vice president and general manager of the Radeon Technologies Group and David Wang as senior vice president of engineering at RTG. Both will be reporting directly to Dr. Su.
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Jan 23, 2018 23:47
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dissss posted:How can Bitcoin keep working long term if it isn’t worth mining? Wouldn’t the whole thing grind to a halt? an altcoin will replace bitcoin as the market leader in a moment, when bitcoin fails. these people are really stupid, they won't care that they just lost all their money, they can just mine it again!
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Jan 24, 2018 00:00
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Parallelwoody posted:About how long after the 70/80s drop do you see the ti cards come out? AMD making GBS threads the bed has hosed Nvidia’s release timetables IMO; it used to be a new generation every 18 months or so with a ti scattered somewhere in there. This generation has been out for what, two years now? Tl;dr: no previous wisdom really applies to the GPU market anymore
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Jan 24, 2018 00:31
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BIG HEADLINE posted:Ampere's x70/x80 pricing is likely going to be $529-579 and $649-729 and people will ~applaud~ nVidia for it. I almost sold my R9 380 when I got my RX480 and I'm now really glad I have it in reserve if the RX480 ever decides to poo poo the bed. gently caress miners, ban all crypto. It's also really annoying owning a *Sync monitor due to the Sync Wars and AMD and NVidia's solutions not being compatible. I'm basically locked into AMD for the next 4-5 years as I have a FreeSync monitor and NVidia doesn't support FreeSync. axeil fucked around with this message at 00:44 on Jan 24, 2018 |
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Jan 24, 2018 00:40
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BIG HEADLINE posted:Ampere's x70/x80 pricing is likely going to be $529-579 and $649-729 and people will ~applaud~ nVidia for it. I was watching Amazon about 4 hours ago and managed to find various(asus/msi) 1060 6gb models for $309 at least( all promising to be in stock and Ship from like Jan 26-Feb 1) until r/Buildapcsales caught on and then they were gone in less than 5 minutes. I wasn't quite ready to pull the trigger immediately but it might be worth it to set up some email alerts from Amazon as the prices arent completely nuts there, you just have to be fast. Newegg seems to be jacking up their prices much more in comparison because they can get away with it. Kinda kicking myself for not snap decision grabbing a card during black friday. My Asus 6870 from 2011 was fine when I wasnt playing anything intensive, but just trying new stuff like Fortnite shows how outclassed it is. Still feels really bad having to drop ~$300 on 2-3 year old architecture cards that dont always come with a backplate. I can't imagine the VR companies are too happy about the trend? The barrier to entry adding in overpriced videocards has got to be dissuading adoption for more and more people. literally a hog fucked around with this message at 00:55 on Jan 24, 2018 |
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Jan 24, 2018 00:47
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^^^ Dude, I got an email from Nowinstock for a 1080ti being available and it was gone literally in the time it took me to click on the email. You’ve got a space of maybe ten seconds or so to get an order in.
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Jan 24, 2018 00:51
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Paul MaudDib posted:That's not actually an answer. You're just trying to dodge the question... how can you actually read out a HDCP 2.2 framebuffer from another (non-authorized) process? Answer the question. Ideally, let's see a code sample - since so far HDCP 2.2 is unbroken, the burden of proof is on you. You are the one making positive claims with the burden of proof. I highly suspect you don't have anything. I'm really interested to see what you've got though. lmao what the gently caress is this?
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Jan 24, 2018 00:55
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cool startup feel posted:lmao what the gently caress is this? poo poo we really don't need to dive back into.
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Jan 24, 2018 01:09
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DrDork posted:poo poo we really don't need to dive back into.
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Jan 24, 2018 01:44
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axeil posted:I almost sold my R9 380 when I got my RX480 and I'm now really glad I have it in reserve if the RX480 ever decides to poo poo the bed. Turns out I wasn't wrong - 560Ti/448s are going for $100-130 now. A card I bought in late 2011 is selling for what a 1050 or cheap 1050Ti should be now.
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Jan 24, 2018 02:11
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That's probably people getting specific hardware because they need 1:1 replacements. Kepler is the earliest card people should get for playing games and you can get 670s for 75 dollars.
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Jan 24, 2018 02:26
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tehinternet posted:AMD making GBS threads the bed has hosed Nvidia’s release timetables IMO; it used to be a new generation every 18 months or so with a ti scattered somewhere in there. This generation has been out for what, two years now? The 1070/1080 were released late May, Early June 2016, so like 19-20 months ago It's not that skewed from their normal 18 month rotation so far. I sorta suspect the next generation (not counting the Titans, which have already released) will probably be out the same time period, so the spread will be 24 months. That's sorta reasonable given how successful the 10xx series has been and the complete lack of competition.
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Jan 24, 2018 02:36
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That reminds me of how hard it was to get a 1080 too. Since release I had email alerts and was checking stock multiple times a day and only got one in September. Can't wait to fight for stock against miners as well.
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Jan 24, 2018 02:43
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Surely NVidia learned from last launch, and combined with the expected demand from buttminers will have responded by ramping up production so they can release Ampere in ample numbers. ...right?
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Jan 24, 2018 03:06
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They haven't in almost 15 years. I found an article from 2004 about how getting a videocard on launch is a joke. I've also been buying videocards for almost as long as Nvidia has been making them and I can back that up.
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Jan 24, 2018 03:20
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DrDork posted:Surely NVidia learned from last launch, and combined with the expected demand from buttminers will have responded by ramping up production so they can release Ampere in ample numbers. Your query, however rhetorical it may been, leads me to believe that you haven't seen this video by Gamers Nexus yet. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=neNHVosINro In it, Steve breaks down how the card manufacturers they spoke with on condition of anonymity feel about mining. Go watch the video, but a TL;DR: * The bubble could pop tomorrow, and flood the market with mining cards. * Nobody wants to be stuck holding the bag with warehouses full of unsold graphics cards. * Miners have no brand loyalty, they will buy their target cards from anyone that has them in stock, as opposed to brand loyalty. * That means that there's no way to actually retain them or ensure their future business. * Buying chips from AMD/Nvidia operates on a longer time scale (Steve seems to imply that they are purchased on a quarterly projection) than from board partner to retailer, and retailer to you. * As long as board partners are skittish about buying more chips from Nvidia/AMD, the supply issues will continue. * In short, it's not worth the risk to ramp production to meet both miner and gamer demand wholly, because the fall is gonna be a doozy. And of course, Ampere is around the corner. Nobody wants to be stuck holding the bag on Pascal chips when Ampere is out. SwissArmyDruid fucked around with this message at 03:50 on Jan 24, 2018 |
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Jan 24, 2018 03:22
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The thing that goes unmentioned is that the market for Pascal will guaranteed be flooded if Ampere is significantly better at either producing more $/day, or producing it for less electrical cost. Chances are it'll do a little of both, and miners will sell their cards (especially if they've already reached ROI) and buy the card that gives them 50 cents more a day and uses 3 cents a day less in electricity. So a company that calls in a big batch of new fresh Pascal cards this late in the cycle is basically betting against Nvidia building a better mousetrap for mining. And that's just unlikely. OTOH, ramping up production for Ampere wouldn't be a half-bad idea, since with AMD in the state they're in it's unlikely Nvidia will rapidly release successive new models. Even if the market crumbles early into Ampere's lifespan, if it lasts as long as Pascal did you will sell those cards eventually. Craptacular! fucked around with this message at 03:44 on Jan 24, 2018 |
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Jan 24, 2018 03:40
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SwissArmyDruid posted:Your query, however rhetorical it may ben, leads me to believe that you haven't seen this video by Gamers Nexus yet. Craptacular! posted:So a company that calls in a big batch of new fresh Pascal cards this late in the cycle is basically betting against Nvidia building a better mousetrap for mining. And that's just unlikely. Craptacular! posted:OTOH, ramping up production for Ampere wouldn't be a half-bad idea, since with AMD in the state they're in it's unlikely Nvidia will rapidly release successive new models. Even if the market crumbles early into Ampere's lifespan, if it lasts as long as Pascal did you will sell those cards eventually.
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Jan 24, 2018 04:01
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DrDork posted:Surely NVidia learned from last launch, and combined with the expected demand from buttminers will have responded by ramping up production so they can release Ampere in ample numbers. vs people whining that the cards aren't out yet. If they don't release until they have a large stockpile, that means a later release date. It's not like on the first day of production they are sitting on unplugged fabrication machines wondering if people want to buy new video cards.
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Jan 24, 2018 04:05
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People in 2015: NV you suck at making Pascal in sufficient volumes! AMD: hold my beer
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Jan 24, 2018 04:25
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Lockback posted:vs people whining that the cards aren't out yet. Yeah, the idea would be more that instead of running the same # of units a month and simply waiting longer to launch, it would be more asking TSMC to produce more units per month so they could launch at the same point in time, but with more stock because they've higher confidence in their ability to sell through rapidly. Whether TSMC would have the capacity to do so in the first place is a different question, of course.
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Jan 24, 2018 05:57
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Nvidia and AMD should make it so when you boot you’re presented with a menu: Are you using this video card for: MINING GAMING If you click on mining, your card gets bricked. problem solved —bing bing bong so simple!
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Jan 24, 2018 06:06
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Just use Hynix ram on all your cards. Problem solved
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Jan 24, 2018 06:08
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