|
Saying that a government elected through fraud and propped up by graft and bribe is illegitimate doesn't necessarily imply its opponents have more legitimacy.
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2018 15:42
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 19:38 |
|
|
Afghanistan is hosed
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2018 16:00
|
|
|
Its so loving stupid, and it's gonna cause the worst humanitarian crisis since Ethiopia in the 80s and Somalia in the 90s.quote:In early October, 2016, the father of Hilal’s close friend Jalal al-Ruwayshan died. Ruwayshan, the Minister of the Interior, was working with Hilal in negotiating between Yemen’s various factions to end the war. The Ruwayshan family announced that it would receive condolences at the Al-Sala Al-Kubra Community Hall, in Sana’a. On the night before the funeral, Hilal’s son Hussein called his father and asked him to urge the Ruwayshan family to consider postponing the event. Since the beginning of the war, the Saudi coalition’s air strikes have hit large civilian gatherings. Hilal replied that the Saudi Air Force would not bomb the funeral. “Even war has morals,” he said. You can guess what happened next. quote:The third time that the hall shook, Hilal’s guard heard the sound of air whistling against the tail fins of a bomb as it zigzagged toward them, its guidance system making corrections to its trajectory. “Sir, it’s a missile!” he shouted. Hilal was smiling. The floor erupted in flames. As the guard lost consciousness, he saw a wall collapse and crush Hilal. quote:Some officials in Washington were skeptical of the Saudis’ plans, however. “I think they had a slightly rosier interpretation of how quickly the military effort would be successful,” Nitin Chadda, who was an adviser on national security to the White House, told me. The Saudis had been “choreographing” their desire to take steps against the Houthis, because they were uncomfortable with the idea of an Iranian proxy on their border, he said. But the specific plans to attack Yemen were not communicated to the U.S. Within D.C. circles, Chadda said, “there was certainly frustration” that the Saudis had acted so quickly, without clearly defining their long-term objectives. quote:The Obama Administration found itself entangled in the complexities of a war that involved so many regional players. The confusion extended to humanitarian concerns. Jeremy Konyndyk, at the time the director of USAID’s office of U.S. foreign-disaster assistance, told me that it often seemed as if the Saudis were thwarting efforts to get food to Yemen’s starving populace. Another former senior Administration official told me that the U.S. government spent four million dollars on cranes to unload relief ships at the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeidah, but the coalition, which had blockaded Yemen, did not allow the cranes into the country. and ofc quote:month after the funeral-hall strike, Donald Trump was elected President. In January, when he was inaugurated, he promised a review of Obama’s foreign policy. “Their objective is a strong relationship with the Saudis, a strong relationship with the Emiratis,” Bruce Riedel told me. “Yemen is just not a priority.” The Saudis lobbied Trump’s National Security Council for the cranes purchased by USAID for Hodeidah to be returned. The National Security Council acceded, and the cranes have been sent to storage, at the U.S.’s expense. The former senior Administration official told me, “Since January, you’ve seen the humanitarian situation in Yemen fall off a cliff, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence.” According to Rajat Madhok, of UNICEF, the cholera crisis and the malnutrition are unprecedented. “ ‘Bad’ would be an understatement,” Madhok told me. “You’re looking at a health collapse, a systemic collapse.” quote:Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, is also associated with the Saudis. He has flown to the kingdom repeatedly for secret talks. In a relationship fostered by the Emiratis and by the Lebanese-American businessman Thomas Barrack, who is a friend of Trump’s, Kushner has grown close to King Salman’s thirty-two-year-old son, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a chief proponent of the war in Yemen. (Gause, the professor at Texas A. & M. University, told me, “This is his war, it was his idea, he owns it.”) Kushner negotiated the new arms deal. As initially reported by the Times, he called Marillyn Hewson, the chair of Lockheed Martin, and asked her to lower the price of a radar system. According to a number of current and former government officials and weapons experts, Kushner’s action was irregular. It was also bad dealmaking. “Usually, a U.S. official would be lobbying a foreign government on behalf of U.S. industry, not vice versa,” Andrew Exum told me. “That just struck me as odd.” and pretty predictably quote:Senator Murphy told me that the U.S.’s support for the coalition will prove detrimental to the country’s interests. “Our first job is to protect our citizenry, and, to me, these arms sales put U.S. lives in jeopardy,” he said. Dafna H. Rand, a Middle East expert who covered Yemen for the State Department under Obama, said, “The longer this war goes on, the longer there’s a risk of deep resentment against the United States that will be radicalizing and lead to full-strain extremism.” The Yemenis I spoke to expressed frustration with the U.S.’s role in the war. “We used to love and appreciate the U.S., because a large number of Yemenis live there,” Hebari, the chanter, told me. The war has now changed that calculus. “What appears to me is that the U.S. is funding and Saudi Arabia is the implementer.” read the rest here: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/01/22/how-the-us-is-making-the-war-in-yemen-worse It's loving infuriating.
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2018 16:11
|
|
|
separatists in Aden backed by the UAE also seized several government buildings from the Hadi government the other day. There were dozens of casualties and several deaths in the fighting, which lasted hours. The coalition is a clusterfuck
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2018 16:38
|
|
|
Squalid posted:The risks are real. However I think people often forget that aggressive anti-terror campaigns have often have unpredictable liabilities. My favorite example is the US "shadow war" in Somalia circa 2003 which transformed what was maybe at most a few dozen al Qaeda sympathizers into Al Shabaab, one of the most active international terrorist organizations today. Their attacks against Uganda, Burundi, and Kenya came after those nations participated in the occupation of Somalia, and are explicitly conducted to pressure them to remove themselves from Somalia. Similarly IS coordinated attacks are explicitly in revenge for the coalition campaign against them. These groups are not irrational, their terror attacks are usually launched to achieve specific strategic or tactical aims. Stepping in has proved in some cases as dangerous as stepping back. In any case, I think its obvious that the opportunity cost of the war, that is what we could have done otherwise if we weren't stuck in that country, exceeds whatever modest benefits one can argue are accrued. A good post, except for what you mentioned about Shabaab. It was a youth organization aligned with the Islamic Courts Union that got notoriety from defeating more secular warlords in the early aughts. It only really blew up in significance with the scorched earth invasion of Somalia by mostly Ethiopian forces. The turn to a more global emphasis (with predictably disastrous results, like the invasion of Southern Somalia by Kenyan forces) is a propaganda campaign to bolster an organization rapidly losing territory and operational ability. The US is not responsible for everything that happens in a country, even if it does impact negatively somewhat.
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2018 16:43
|
|
|
[quote="“Shageletic”" post="“480772075”"] A good post, except for what you mentioned about Shabaab. It was a youth organization aligned with the Islamic Courts Union that got notoriety from defeating more secular warlords in the early aughts. It only really blew up in significance with the scorched earth invasion of Somalia by mostly Ethiopian forces. The turn to a more global emphasis (with predictably disastrous results, like the invasion of Southern Somalia by Kenyan forces) is a propaganda campaign to bolster an organization rapidly losing territory and operational ability. The US is not responsible for everything that happens in a country, even if it does impact negatively somewhat. [/quote] Yeah but many analysts have written about how the ICU aligned youth organization grew out of self defense groups assembled to protect Afghan war veterans during the mid-aught intensification of warlord violence, brought about in part by and targeted at Afghan veteran due to US efforts to catch Somali al Qaeda sympathizers. I don’t think the US is responsible for everything bad in the world, but I think the war on terror has produced much more blowback than most Americans realize. And giving money and guns to warlords and dictators like Saleh was probably not in our long term interest, even if it accomplished short term goals like killing a few more al Qaeda second in commands
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2018 17:08
|
|
|
Shageletic posted:A good post, except for what you mentioned about Shabaab. It was a youth organization aligned with the Islamic Courts Union that got notoriety from defeating more secular warlords in the early aughts. It only really blew up in significance with the scorched earth invasion of Somalia by mostly Ethiopian forces. The turn to a more global emphasis (with predictably disastrous results, like the invasion of Southern Somalia by Kenyan forces) is a propaganda campaign to bolster an organization rapidly losing territory and operational ability. But Ethiopia invaded at the behest of the US. It wasn't intentional, but yes US meddling created a worse enemy in Somalia than existed there previously. At best, its very hard to say this meddling had a positive impact, for the population or for US strategic interests.
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2018 17:26
|
|
|
Ethiopia invaded Somalia because some members of the ICU were trumpeting that they were going to liberate the Ogaden. The US just greased the wheels a little and facilitated what they already wanted to do.
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2018 18:14
|
|
|
quote:Within D.C. circles, Chadda said, “there was certainly frustration” that the Saudis had acted so quickly, without clearly defining their long-term objectives. Gee, I wonder where they ever got this idea from.
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2018 20:44
|
|
|
Trump can't even get on the same page as his generals in Afghanistan. https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/958032160698626048 https://twitter.com/DefenseBaron/status/958041423785463808
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2018 21:04
|
|
|
Hah, the generals think there's a strategy, how quaint.
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2018 21:16
|
|
|
Squalid posted:Yeah but many analysts have written about how the ICU aligned youth organization grew out of self defense groups assembled to protect Afghan war veterans during the mid-aught intensification of warlord violence, brought about in part by and targeted at Afghan veteran due to US efforts to catch Somali al Qaeda sympathizers. Oh didn't know about the Afghan connection, interesting Squalid posted:Ethiopia invaded Somalia because some members of the ICU were trumpeting that they were going to liberate the Ogaden. The US just greased the wheels a little and facilitated what they already wanted to do. Bingo. I lived in the region for 2 years, the enmity between the 2 countries cannot be overstated.
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2018 21:53
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/jenanmoussa/status/958072842398072833
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2018 22:19
|
|
|
^ uhhhhh...so this is gonna be Turkey throwing its poo poo not just at Kurds but also at Assad? Or supplying their good Al-Qaeda linked friends, as their right to defend themselves now? If the latter, I can see that I guess...but if the former then I expect their projected 'buffer zone of security' to expand across a lot more than just Kurdish territories. 
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2018 22:28
|
|
|
I think Turkey might be...the bad guys????
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2018 22:37
|
|
|
It may end up being more than that. There are rumors of shooting between Turkish and Assad forces. https://twitter.com/Ozkok_/status/958082857326514177?ref_src=twcamp%5Ecopy%7Ctwsrc%5Eandroid%7Ctwgr%5Ecopy%7Ctwcon%5E7090%7Ctwterm%5E3 What the gently caress?
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2018 22:38
|
|
|
Is there anything beyond a few shots of a convoy?
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2018 22:45
|
|
|
I just read an article that describes some of the backdrop to this https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/01/turkey-russia-syria-idlib-may-be-source-of-conflict.html quote:The struggle at Idlib is considered by many to be the last act of the war against a jihadi group that is basically controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham under the leadership of al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat Fatah al-Sham. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham labels the Astana and Geneva peace processes as treason, so the cease-fire Russia formulated excludes Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as well as the Islamic State (IS). From the outset, Russia said the cease-fire covers only “moderate" opposition groups; operations against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and IS will not cease. Turkey, on the other hand — despite its approval of the Astana process — decided to place Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in a different category. Ankara first tried to reshape that organization as it had earlier with Ahrar al-Sham. When that didn’t work, Turkey tried to split Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. When that didn’t work as well, Ankara accepted the facts of life and decided to cooperate. quote:A crisis was inevitable, given the divergences in interpretation of the de-escalation zones between Russia and Turkey. The operations toward Abu Zuhur continued despite Turkey’s objections. quote:It's not yet certain where the fragile relations between Russia and Turkey will go in this tense atmosphere, but it's clear Idlib is becoming a dangerous final stage in the war. It's possible that, in such a risky atmosphere, Ankara is hoping to hold on to Idlib and the triangle of al-Bab, Jarablus and Azaz that Turkey had secured in Operation Euphrates Shield, to use them as a card against Damascus in a settlement process. Such a card would have serious ramifications for the fate of the Syrian president and the future of the Kurds as they seek to build their autonomy in the north.
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2018 23:03
|
|
|
Seems pretty rude for Erdogan to try to blitz Idlib after Russia gave up Afrin so readily. Plus as Al-Saqr has said, wtf is the point of intervening NOW, as opposed to back when it might have made a difference? I guess securing a token safe zone where they can dump refugees they don't want anymore is the real point for Turkey, but Erdogan spent so much time ranting and not doing anything that he ended up holding a bag of poo poo he's just now trying to clean up. Just to be clear, I'm not calling the refugees a bag of poo poo, but just the way the war has been kind of a disaster for Turkey in general. They played footsie with jihadists who made the rebellion unpalatable to basically everyone else, and their ally ended up intervening on the behalf of the PKK to clear out some of the jihadists Turkey enabled, leaving the PKK still controlling a huge chunk of the border Turkey's either going to have to fight for or live with. Now Turkey's stuck ping ponging back and forth between Russia, which handed the war to Assad, and the US, which is still trying to prop up the YPG as a totally unrealistic alternative to Assad. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 23:17 on Jan 29, 2018 |
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2018 23:13
|
|
|
So how far away are we from a NATO member openly fighting Russian troops, exactly?
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2018 23:28
|
|
|
oh my god I hope we all die asap
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2018 23:32
|
|
|
Orange Devil posted:So how far away are we from a NATO member openly fighting Russian troops, exactly? I wouldn't bet on it. Erdogan and Assad might play chicken for a bit, but Putin and Erdogan seem to have a decent working relationship at this point. Neither one wants a fight, and a close call or two will probably be enough to get them to come to terms. A Russian bomb actually killed three Turkish troops during Euphrates Shield less than a year ago, and it didn't lead to anything.
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2018 23:44
|
|
|
Orange Devil posted:So how far away are we from a NATO member openly fighting Russian troops, exactly? Welp, if Syrian govt. forces fight Turkish ones openly after this or such, I'd say not far now. Though if they use some of the S-400s on Turkish planes I guess technically you could say then that we're already there??? I dunno wtf man, either way Turkey's deffo loving the pooch big time with this one way or the other. But yea, I'd agree with Sinteres - I doubt you'll see russian troops fighting turkish ones or poo poo like that. Their equipment might be a different story tho.
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2018 23:45
|
|
|
The other thing is that even if Erdogan wanted to engage in brinksmanship with Russia for some insane reason, Trump is the last US president you'd want to be counting on to bail you out if poo poo gets real. Aside from whatever affinity he seems to have for Putin, he thinks NATO is a bad deal for the US, and seems likely to drag his feet if Turkey can reasonably be said to have brought an attack on themselves. I don't think we'd be going full Clancy either way, because whatever limited gains either party can achieve in Syria relative to accepting the other side's position aren't worth fighting each other over, but Turkey has even more reason than usual to be careful about how it deals with the far bigger kid on the block. The US just isn't a reliable partner as long as our leader is who he is, whereas anyone dealing with Putin knows exactly who they're dealing with at this point.
|
|
#
?
Jan 29, 2018 23:53
|
|
|
To cut Clancychat short, as long as Assad or Putin does not attack anything on Turkish soil, NATO art. 5 does not intervene. If Erdogan sends troops to die in Syria, it's his problem.
|
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2018 00:04
|
|
|
Sinteres posted:I wouldn't bet on it. Erdogan and Assad might play chicken for a bit, but Putin and Erdogan seem to have a decent working relationship at this point. Neither one wants a fight, and a close call or two will probably be enough to get them to come to terms. A Russian bomb actually killed three Turkish troops during Euphrates Shield less than a year ago, and it didn't lead to anything. Well that's good to know. I suppose we all hope Erdogan and Putin continue to act rationally towards one another.
|
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2018 00:24
|
|
|
Last week the bigger worry was that there will be open infighting between two NATO armies.
|
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2018 00:28
|
|
|
Orange Devil posted:Hah, the generals think there's a strategy, how quaint. A general throwing up his arms and shouting "well who the gently caress makes the strategy? Me?!?" is one of the more quintessentially post-escalator mental images I can think of.
|
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2018 01:34
|
|
|
Is the National Interest a credible source? https://twitter.com/CurtMills/status/958082178054836227
|
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2018 01:37
|
|
|
Willie Tomg posted:A general throwing up his arms and shouting "well who the gently caress makes the strategy? Me?!?" is one of the more quintessentially post-escalator mental images I can think of. https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/16/politics/trump-military-troops-afghanistan-mattis/index.html quote:Defense Secretary James Mattis announced Thursday that Trump had given him authority over Afghanistan troop levels, a little more than a month after the President had given him control over the number of US soldiers operating in Syria and Iraq. Mattis is expected to send some 3,000 to 5,000 additional troops to Afghanistan. Mattis running things works (sort of) until Trump says something that contradicts whatever our tentative "strategy" is. See: Qatar, North Korea, and now Afghanistan/the Taliban. Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 01:58 on Jan 30, 2018 |
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2018 01:52
|
|
|
svenkatesh posted:Point taken, but there are posters in this thread who claim that the democratic government in Kabul is illegitimate and that the US should instead give direct cash payments to the Taliban. Political legitimacy refers the general population BELIEVING that the government actually has the right to govern. It does not, as a descriptive fact, matter whether the population believes that they hold legitimacy through The Divine Right Of Kings, The Will of the People, or They Have All The Guns. Even a democratic government that the people don't believe has any particular authority to govern them cannot actually govern. There is no particular evidence that the democratic government in Kabul has legitimacy in the eyes of much of Afghanistan.
|
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2018 04:08
|
|
|
Think outside powers will be trying to fan the flames between Turkey and Syria? I wonder because Assad had effectively "won" the civil war, by staying in power and regaining control over much of the country. But an awful lot of others, mostly in the West and the Gulf, really want Assad out. None are willing to invade Syria itself to achieve this, but if Turkey is willing to stick its dick in there, why not help it out? At least it keeps Syria unstable and Assad under pressure. yeah yeah clancychat, just wondering if this has come up at all. I haven't heard reactions from the Gulf states on Turkey's latest incursion, I wonder what they think.
|
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2018 04:32
|
|
|
If Turkey was serious about fighting agianst assad I would suck erdogans dick and declare him the greatest middle eastern ruler since sliced bread. The problem is that he isnt serious because if he was he'd have done this sooner when it was sorely needed, and he wouldnt be cynically doing this only for his own calculations vis a vis the kurds, he's only interested in subduing the kurds, not actually helping the Syrians freedom when it was needed most.
|
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2018 04:38
|
|
|
Al-Saqr posted:If Turkey was serious about fighting agianst assad I would suck erdogans dick and declare him the greatest middle eastern ruler since sliced bread. I would like to read a story about when sliced bread ruled the middle east.
|
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2018 04:39
|
|
|
mlmp08 posted:I would like to read a story about when sliced bread ruled the middle east. sorry I like to use the term sliced bread as an inane way of saying 'a long time ago'. lol
|
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2018 04:40
|
|
|
Al-Saqr posted:sorry I like to use the term sliced bread as an inane way of saying 'a long time ago'. lol Too late; imagining Lord Sourdough of House Thicksliced, heir to the Toaster Throne.
|
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2018 04:44
|
|
|
mediadave posted:Seems like everything is going great in 'government' controlled Yemen: https://twitter.com/Alladin_Al/status/958109940454961153?s=17 It would appear the internationally recognized Yemen government has fallen to the southern separatists. Edit: That's probably incorrect. BBC is reporting both sides are deploying and calling more forces to Aden. Even pulling troops from the frontlines with the Houthis. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42858270 OhFunny fucked around with this message at 05:44 on Jan 30, 2018 |
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2018 05:31
|
|
|
OhFunny posted:https://twitter.com/Alladin_Al/status/958109940454961153?s=17 The only thing that surprises me is that it took so long for Southern separatists to move against Hadi. This was pretty much an inevitable consequence of the Saudi coalition's intervention. My take on this from two years ago is still applicable. Squalid, Dec 6 2015 posted:Yemen is hosed all kinds of ways. One of my fears is that the coalition will (or already has) empower southern separatists through their efforts to build militias in the Aden and other southern territories, which will make stitching a country back together capable of fighting ISIS and Al Qaeda impossible.
|
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2018 06:23
|
|
|
America once again marching ever forward in a sustainable foreverwar against the taliban, I bet those conservative villiage dwellers haven’t changed or improved in any way after being in war for 16 Years! https://twitter.com/saladinaldronni/status/957881114625966080 ...oh.
|
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2018 06:28
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 19:38 |
|
|
Al-Saqr posted:America once again marching ever forward in a sustainable foreverwar against the taliban, I bet those conservative villiage dwellers haven’t changed or improved in any way after being in war for 16 Years! Sure they look good, but their papercraft game is poo poo.
|
|
#
?
Jan 30, 2018 06:50
|
|
