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What will be interesting is when the current 18-30 generation hit 40-80.Entropy238 posted:It is absolutely ridiculous that the situation with rents has gone on for this long. I have a feeling it's going to be the #1 issue coming up to the next general election, and whatever party puts forward rent controls has my vote. https://twitter.com/SocDems/status/963358805592600576 Can't imagine it getting through the Dáil with the number of Landlords in there.
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Feb 14, 2018 14:58
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irlZaphod posted:What will be interesting is when the current 18-30 generation hit 40-80. I'd say we're another generation or so away from it causing major societal problems. Middle class young people are still managing to buy houses, just about, currently. They're doing that by pushing back the age they purchase their first house at into their early/mid 30s, and in a lot of cases by using money that would otherwise be put towards pension contributions into rent/deposit saving. And by buying smaller houses in less salubrious or further away from Dublin areas, or that need lots of renovation work done. So current 25-35 year olds are "getting a foot onto the property ladder" as such currently, they aren't going to rock the boat too much. The real drama is going to come in another 15-20 years time if house prices keep increasing, if by that stage they become unaffordable to the then average middle class young couple. And/or in 25-30 years time when it becomes apparent to all the people who only started making private pension contributions in their 40s that they're now in their late 60s and hosed retirement wise.
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Feb 14, 2018 15:07
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Blut posted:I'd say we're another generation or so away from it causing major societal problems. Middle class young people are still managing to buy houses, just about, currently. They're doing that by pushing back the age they purchase their first house at into their early/mid 30s, and in a lot of cases by using money that would otherwise be put towards pension contributions into rent/deposit saving. And by buying smaller houses in less salubrious or further away from Dublin areas, or that need lots of renovation work done. So current 25-35 year olds are "getting a foot onto the property ladder" as such currently, they aren't going to rock the boat too much. e: I mean, there's certainly going to be some "I got mine, who cares about you?" who are willing to pull up the ladder behind them. I feel that is somewhat of a minority though.
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Feb 14, 2018 15:17
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irlZaphod posted:What will be interesting is when the current 18-30 generation hit 40-80. That won't fix the problem imo. It's a systemic issue so it requires, at the very least, a complete overhaul of the system. Either the state gets directly involved in the rental market or nothing will change. It won't matter for me because my plan is to keep improving my German until I'm a qualified engineer and probably go live there. We did an exercise in one of my language classes where we looked at actual apartments in Berlin and pretend to be a broker. Some of them were literally like, 2 bedroom, 70m^2 and right near some major U-Bahn stations for like €600 a month.
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Feb 14, 2018 15:33
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I still can’t believe we got this house. There was gently caress all last year in Cork city, even the ´burbs like Douglas and Bishopstown. There is slightly more supply I feel as the prices rise and people leave negative equity but holy poo poo these prices.
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Feb 14, 2018 15:39
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irlZaphod posted:I disagree, I don't think that many 25-35 year olds are getting on the property ladder, and the ones who are are making some serious concessions to do so. I think (I hope, at least) they realise that we have been hosed by the previous generation of speculators and greedy landlords, if not just from their own experience but from that of their friends. A couple with two median income earners in Dublin pulls in approx €80k a year currently. With a mortgage of 3.5 times that, and a 10% deposit, that brings then up to a rough €320k budget for a house. Thats not enough to buy a semi-d in South Dublin anymore, but its still more than enough to get on the property ladder. There are 300+ houses (nevermind apartments) for sale for cheaper than that in Dublin as of today on DAFT. And many, many more in the commuter belt surrounding Dublin. So owning a house for the 'average' person is still well with-in reach financially. And once people are on the property ladder suddenly their interest shifts to only wanting prices to go up, up, up. This is also not taking into account the large number of two-income professional couples who earn more than that, or those who get financial help from their parents. Its not going to be until the property market gets so expensive that it prices houses out of the reach of the middle class (ie the voting class, and the children of the voting class) that Irish politicians are going to care. You're vastly underestimating the "I got mine, who cares about you" factor. Studies have shown that once most people become property owners their political views take an almost instant shift to the economically conservative. And thats even more pronounced in Ireland, where we have such a hardwired history of conservatism (and an obsession with property ownership). For a very easy example of this in action, just look at how polls have shown continual year-on-year growth in combined support for FF&FG as prosperity levels have increased over the last few years. Polls this month place combined support for FF&FG at 60% of the electorate, which if an election were held tomorrow would give them an estimated 115 seats (or over 70%) of seats in the Dail. Thats a very clear vote of confidence in the continuation of the status quo from the majority of the Irish population. Even ignoring all the factors pushing government policy to support upwards movement on house prices that I mentioned in my post on the last page, until Irish voting patterns change there aren't going to be any major reforms to the property industry. FF&FG are not parties that care about the 18-30 year old working class property renters who're going to get screwed by this for the foreseeable future. Blut fucked around with this message at 15:44 on Feb 14, 2018 |
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Feb 14, 2018 15:42
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julian assflange posted:I still can’t believe we got this house. There was gently caress all last year in Cork city, even the ´burbs like Douglas and Bishopstown. There is slightly more supply I feel as the prices rise and people leave negative equity but holy poo poo these prices. I think my mum's house in Douglas cost like 50k in 1984, at the peak of the bubble it was valued at about a million. lol
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Feb 14, 2018 15:43
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Blut posted:A couple with two median income earners in Dublin pulls in approx €80k a year currently. With a mortgage of 3.5 times that, and a 10% deposit, that brings then up to a rough €320k budget for a house. Thats not enough to buy a semi-d in South Dublin anymore, but its still more than enough to get on the property ladder. There are 300+ houses (nevermind apartments) for sale for cheaper than that in Dublin as of today on DAFT. And many, many more in the commuter belt surrounding Dublin. So owning a house for the 'average' person is still well with-in reach financially. And once people are on the property ladder suddenly their interest shifts to only wanting prices to go up, up, up. And Irish voting patterns won't change until there is some sort of viable alternative. Labour has become toxic, SF are shite, Solidarity-PBP are too far left to be a realistic alternative, Soc Dems are struggling somewhat to gain any traction. It's poo poo, but that's what it is. If we could get rid of the people who yo-yo between voting for FG and FF, or just merge/get rid of one of the parties, we'd probably be better off. irlZaphod fucked around with this message at 15:51 on Feb 14, 2018 |
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Feb 14, 2018 15:48
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WeAreTheRomans posted:I think my mum's house in Douglas cost like 50k in 1984, at the peak of the bubble it was valued at about a million. lol My dads out in Monkstown was €750k  cost him £24k back in the early 80s which I think came to €120k in today’s money if I calculated it right.
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Feb 14, 2018 15:50
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So we're basically hosed until there's another crash?
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Feb 14, 2018 15:54
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irlZaphod posted:That's great and all, but the big problem your median income earners are facing right now (like myself) is getting a deposit when you're renting. Like I said, people are having to make a ton of concessions. Also, it's not realistic for everyone to get shunted out to the commuter belt around Dublin. Your original point was "I don't think that many 25-35 year olds are getting on the property ladder," though, not that they're having to make concessions to do so - which is blatantly wrong. Median income earners are absolutely having to make concessions, but they're still getting on the property ladder - both with-in Dublin and in the commuter belt. Which, as I said, until that changes there won't be any political will to make radical property market changes. The problem with Irish voting patterns isn't a lack of viable alternative, its Irish people's political views. Even if a new, En Marche style, political party was set-up in Ireland with policies orientated to reflect the dominant mainstream Irish political views it would end up looking identical to FF&FG. On top of FF&FG polling at 60%, we also have quite a few conservative independent TDs in the Dail. If 65%+ of the electorate is voting for conservative TDs then conservative government is unfortunately very much the will of the people. Entropy238 posted:So we're basically hosed until there's another crash? Essentially, yes. Either we wait 20 years for house prices to have grown enough to gently caress over even the upper-middle class who politicians care about. Or else another crash happens and maybe this time we get a radical left-wing government out of it.
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Feb 14, 2018 16:05
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This is 2016 data from a Journal article: - Average First Time Buyer is 34 - Average loan €185k - Average House price €250k - Average Loan/Income ratio: 2.9x That last number is interesting I would have expected it to be higher. I’d be keen to see the 2017 figures, too soon no doubt
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Feb 14, 2018 16:07
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Blut posted:Your original point was "I don't think that many 25-35 year olds are getting on the property ladder," though, not that they're having to make concessions to do so - which is blatantly wrong. irlZaphod posted:I disagree, I don't think that many 25-35 year olds are getting on the property ladder, and the ones who are are making some serious concessions to do so. Blut posted:Median income earners are absolutely having to make concessions, but they're still getting on the property ladder - both with-in Dublin and in the commuter belt. Which, as I said, until that changes there won't be any political will to make radical property market changes. http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp1hii/cp1hii/od/ The worrying thing to me here is show in this infographic: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp1hii/cp1hii/ The percentage of homes owned outright has increased 8%. That may be explained by older people paying off their mortgage, but I wonder how much of it is people or vulture funds hoovering up available properties.
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Feb 14, 2018 16:23
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Still loads of cash buyers if I’d say
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Feb 14, 2018 16:47
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irlZaphod posted:This is what I said. But according your own CSO link "The age at which home ownership became the majority tenure category was 35 years in 2016. " So by age 35 over 50% of the population are still becoming home owners. So to say "they're not really getting on the ladder" is completely factually incorrect - the literal majority of people in Ireland by age 35 are in-fact homeowners. And given an average voter turnout of approx 55% for under 35s in Ireland, and the fact that both voter participation and home-ownership rates correlate very strongly with wealth, a large number of under 35 voters are going to be home-owners. So even in the least financially secure age segment of the population there isn't an overwhelming economic push towards housing market reform. Home ownership according to the CSO is also still at almost 70% across Ireland on top of that. So for a large chunk of the 70% of Irish households that own their own home increasing house prices are a positive. Until both of those figures, ownership rates for under 35s and overall ownership rates, drop dramatically, we're not going to see any political will to intervene heavily in the market from FF/FG.
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Feb 14, 2018 17:01
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Blut posted:But according your own CSO link "The age at which home ownership became the majority tenure category was 35 years in 2016. " So by age 35 over 50% of the population are still becoming home owners. So to say "they're not really getting on the ladder" is completely factually incorrect - the literal majority of people in Ireland by age 35 are in-fact homeowners. quote:The age at which home ownership became the majority tenure category was 35 years in 2016. Prior to that age, more householders were renting rather than owning their home. In comparison to previous censuses dating back to 1991, the ages which marked the changeover between renting and home ownership were 32 years (2011), 28 years (2006), 27 years (2002) and 26 years (1991). That "changeover" age from renting to homeownership has been increasing since 1991, but it has jumped since 2006. It's becoming more and more difficult for people in their 20s and 30s to get on the property ladder, and it's not showing any signs of changing. Blut posted:Home ownership according to the CSO is also still at almost 70% across Ireland on top of that. So for a large chunk of the 70% of Irish households that own their own home increasing house prices are a positive.
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Feb 14, 2018 17:26
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irlZaphod posted:This is another very worrying trend which shows no sign of reversing. Why is this worrying?
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Feb 14, 2018 17:33
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Bedshaped posted:Why is this worrying? I suppose it could also signify a cultural shift. It was mentioned upthread that we are obsessed with property ownership, and that does have a certain amount of truth to it. The thing is, our market is not designed for long-term renters because most rental properties are owned by shithead landlords who are only out to make a profit on their investment. If there was reasonable long-term renting available in Dublin which would give me a feeling of having a secure home, I'd happily rent till I was 102.
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Feb 14, 2018 17:40
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On a completely different topic, lol if you thought Northern Ireland might have a Government: https://twitter.com/DUPleader/status/963805046717730819
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Feb 14, 2018 17:42
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irlZaphod posted:I really think you should read the rest of that sentence, because it's not supporting your point at all. It completely supports my point. Your post wasn't that "its becoming harder to get on the property ladder, and will become more-so in the future" - which would have been accurate. Your statement was that 25-35 year olds currently are "not getting on the property ladder", which is completely incorrect when in 2016, at age 35, over 50% of 35 year olds in Ireland are home-owners. Numbers of 35 year olds who're homeowners may be decreasing, and it definitely is becoming harder for them to purchase a home, but when the majority of 35 year olds own homes its clearly still possible for most people who want to buy a home today in Ireland to do so. Which was my original point many posts ago, that until this situation becomes far more dire we won't see any major policy changes coming from FF/FG. I'm not really sure why you're so invested in defending the impossibility of home-ownership. Just because you yourself are struggling to become a homeowner doesn't mean your peer group are doing as badly. Clearly, according to the stats, the majority of 35 year olds in Ireland are still managing to become homeowners.
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Feb 14, 2018 17:47
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Blut posted:It completely supports my point. Your post wasn't that "its becoming harder to get on the property ladder, and will become more-so in the future" - which would have been accurate. Your statement was that 25-35 year olds currently are "not getting on the property ladder", which is completely incorrect when in 2016, at age 35, over 50% of 35 year olds in Ireland are home-owners. irlZaphod posted:I disagree, I don't think that many 25-35 year olds are getting on the property ladder, and the ones who are are making some serious concessions to do so. I think (I hope, at least) they realise that we have been hosed by the previous generation of speculators and greedy landlords, if not just from their own experience but from that of their friends. I never said "nobody" in the 25-35 bracket were getting on the ladder, I acknowledge that there are but that they are having to make concessions (like moving back in with parents, or buying outside of Dublin). Also you're being completely disingenuous trying to support your own point with the CSO figures. It's true that in 2016, more 35 year olds were homeowners than weren't. However, those 35 year olds are now 37, and if the trends from then have continued, it's very unlikely that is still the case with 35 year olds. Blut posted:I'm not really sure why you're so invested in defending the impossibility of home-ownership. Just because you yourself are struggling to become a homeowner doesn't mean your peer group are doing as badly. Clearly, according to the stats, the majority of 35 year olds in Ireland are still managing to become homeowners.
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Feb 14, 2018 18:14
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Blut posted:So to say "they're not really getting on the ladder" is completely factually incorrect - the literal majority of people in Ireland by age 35 are in-fact homeowners. Mate. Please stop being wilfully obtuse and taking obvious figures of speech/hyperbole in strict literal form, just so you have an opportunity to post some CSO figures. It's absolutely the most tedious form of internet discussion.  (but instead of GBS, go back to politics.ie or The Journal)
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Feb 14, 2018 18:26
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I'm being massively disingenuous by using the statistics you linked to, that state a majority of 35 year olds own their own homes, to back up my point that a majority of mid 30s people own their own homes? I see. We can agree to disagree, but I think based on the quantifiable statistics you yourself posted I'll be sticking to my view that a majority of 30 something year olds in Ireland are still managing to buy homes, despite your anecdotal views opposing this. WeAreTheRomans posted:Mate. Please stop being wilfully obtuse and taking obvious figures of speech/hyperbole in strict literal form, just so you have an opportunity to post some CSO figures. It's absolutely the most tedious form of internet discussion. If irlZaphod wants to state something verifiably untrue in reply to me I am of course going to call him on it. "I was using hyberpole" is not really a great debate defense. He was also the one who posted CSO figures, they just fortunately happened to completely contradict his point.
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Feb 14, 2018 18:34
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Blut posted:
I'm not trying to shut you down by pointing out typos or anything, just wanna say that "hyberpole" sounds funny when you say it out loud
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Feb 14, 2018 18:56
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Entropy238 posted:So we're basically hosed until there's another crash? My private little joke that gets guffaws from my sister's neighbors when I visit her place up in Dublin is that the government will wake up, not when a big name multinational declares it's leaving/not locating to Dublin because of the rent, but that they'll be moving down to Limerick because of the rent. RTE would have a poo poo attack over that development. School Nickname fucked around with this message at 19:16 on Feb 14, 2018 |
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Feb 14, 2018 19:08
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I was 35 when I moved into my current place here, renting it, and it was just over 5 years ago. Just calculated I spent 2 years of my 5 years salary in just rent. poo poo.
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Feb 14, 2018 19:14
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irlZaphod posted:On a completely different topic, lol if you thought Northern Ireland might have a Government: A lot of people are attributing this to the DUP putting out feelers in advance to see their electorate would accept the 3 bills, 1 act approach to Irish. Polls have frequently shown unionist voters arent keen on any Irish language act and even the UUP tried to get in on the act this week to say how much they are against it. So this seems like the expected knee jerk response
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Feb 14, 2018 19:18
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WeAreTheRomans posted:I'm not trying to shut you down by pointing out typos or anything, just wanna say that "hyberpole" sounds funny when you say it out loud Its a Brexit related in-joke on my office Slack that has apparently now become hard-coded into my brain 
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Feb 14, 2018 19:55
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happyhippy posted:I was 35 when I moved into my current place here, renting it, and it was just over 5 years ago.
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Feb 14, 2018 20:04
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KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:Just from a foreigner's perspective, I tried to move to Dublin for 2017, but gave up because the rent is so absurdly high. And I was living in Manhattan in the time. Yeah, it's basically not worth the effort trying to move here unless you're with Facebook/Google/etc and they can hook you up with an apartment. Manhattan is also terrible but at least you guys have rent controls (sometimes) and somewhat sane social housing programs. A couple of my friends have a sweet brand-new apartment with a killer view of the East River and the UN building, rooftop BBQs, gym, and a nice dog-park at their doorstep - one's a teacher and the other is a student and their rent is subsidised as all hell. America - mostly terrible except in the little bits where it isn't.
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Feb 14, 2018 20:51
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KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:Just from a foreigner's perspective, I tried to move to Dublin for 2017, but gave up because the rent is so absurdly high. And I was living in Manhattan in the time. Yeah, I was in Dublin for a time, and it was a nightmare. Am in Cork, next biggest Irish city, and its getting just as bad. Cork is like Dublin but 20 years behind in everything.
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Feb 14, 2018 21:17
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Blut posted:If irlZaphod wants to state something verifiably untrue in reply to me I am of course going to call him on it. "I was using hyberpole" is not really a great debate defense. He was also the one who posted CSO figures, they just fortunately happened to completely contradict his point. Again, as I mentioned in a previous post, maybe we need a cultural shift away from "needing" to buy property. The rental market needs huge changes if that's going to happen though, people who choose to rent need to have security rather than being at the mercy of private landlords and worrying if they'll be homeless after their lease is up. kustomkarkommando posted:A lot of people are attributing this to the DUP putting out feelers in advance to see their electorate would accept the 3 bills, 1 act approach to Irish. The whole thing is ridiculous when you look at Wales and Scotland. irlZaphod fucked around with this message at 11:11 on Feb 15, 2018 |
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Feb 15, 2018 11:04
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Literally the best thing that can happen in Ireland is Corbyn getting in next door.
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Feb 23, 2018 02:48
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Considering Corbyn's own shadow chancellor is out today contradicting him on the single market I wouldn't count my retard-ducks before they retard-hatch.
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Feb 24, 2018 14:22
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Yeah and? "Politicians talk at cross purposes" so what? You actually think that makes a hair of difference compared with The Tories?
Southpaugh fucked around with this message at 14:34 on Feb 24, 2018 |
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Feb 24, 2018 14:30
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Parties succeed better when their two most senior members don't publicly undercut each other on core platforms hth
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Feb 24, 2018 14:31
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Yeah very good nice hot take. Getting skooled on Pol sci here. Great stuff. gently caress off.
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Feb 24, 2018 14:35
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Are you loving drunk
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Feb 24, 2018 14:37
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Nilbop posted:Are you loving drunk Is there a qualtifiable difference between loving drunk and just drunk? Just asking.
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Feb 25, 2018 20:54
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For a friend.
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Feb 25, 2018 20:55
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