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tsa posted:Morsi was absolutely trying to become a dictator / subvert what democracy there was and it's really bizarre that people try to pretend otherwise. Sisi was/is extremely bad; the MB were also horrible. These are not mutually exclusive statements for intelligent and educated peoples on the matter. The biggest event of Morsi's presidency that signaled his tyranny, and brought about the protests against him that ended in his demise, was a sweeping powers act that was walked back in the face of public scrutiny. Sisi's government killed 800 protesters in a day.
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Feb 15, 2018 07:37
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tsa posted:Morsi was absolutely trying to become a dictator / subvert what democracy there was and it's really bizarre that people try to pretend otherwise. Sisi was/is extremely bad; the MB were also horrible. These are not mutually exclusive statements for intelligent and educated peoples on the matter. I chalk it up to always having to assume that whoever's currently in power is so much worse than whoever used to be there, it's kinda this thread's tilt.
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Feb 15, 2018 10:23
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The Turkish defense minister claims that Mattis told him we could make the YPG fight the PKK, so one of those guys is lying, because I don't think there's any way Mattis believes that's actually possible unless Trump's brain worms are contagious.
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Feb 15, 2018 14:43
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Volkerball posted:The biggest event of Morsi's presidency that signaled his tyranny, and brought about the protests against him that ended in his demise, was a sweeping powers act that was walked back in the face of public scrutiny. Sisi's government killed 800 protesters in a day. You don’t have to rehabilitate one shithead in order to condemn another.
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Feb 15, 2018 18:25
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Morsi's actions should have been dealt with in the democratic framework. I don't support some of his actions but the coup was undoubtedly the worst response possible.
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Feb 15, 2018 18:29
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Mozi posted:Morsi's actions should have been dealt with in the democratic framework. I don't support some of his actions but the coup was undoubtedly the worst response possible. You can't deal with someone trying to end the democratic framework through the democratic framework, especially not when that someone is the first leader the new state has ever had. Inclusive institutions and independent judicial systems need time to grow and since Egypt just had full pluralism slapped on it without a second though that never had a chance to happen.
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Feb 15, 2018 18:43
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I just don't think the cycle of coups helps anyone. Morsi may have been on the rode to subverting democracy but getting the military to get rid of him did that job for him instantly and lol if you thought anything otherwise would happen. It's similar to why I wasn't really cheering on the Erdo coup. He's a colossal piece of human garbage, but (I believe?) he remains popular among the voters and it's not like I perceived the chaos of the coup leading to a more democratic and human rights embracing situation than the one that was present. People like to complain about interventionists but then go on cheering every internal chaotic militarist coup attempt that inevitably undermines civil society even more and leads to someone worse.
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Feb 15, 2018 18:48
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MiddleOne posted:You can't deal with someone trying to end the democratic framework through the democratic framework, especially not when that someone is the first leader the new state has ever had. Inclusive institutions and independent judicial systems need time to grow and since Egypt just had full pluralism slapped on it without a second though that never had a chance to happen. And the coup was the worst way to respond to that. If people didn’t like what he was doing, he would have been voted out. How many candidates are running in the election currently?
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Feb 15, 2018 18:53
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Mozi posted:And the coup was the worst way to respond to that. If people didn’t like what he was doing, he would have been voted out. How many candidates are running in the election currently? Normally yeah. But through the legal framework they could only vote him out after his term ended. Usually that's fine, but he had a unique opportunity as first head of state with the only organized political party behind him to decide how the legal framework would look before reaching that point (right down to taking a crack at ripping up the Democratic parts). Not that the coup made things any better, but it probably wasn't going to be resolved through the legal framework.
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Feb 15, 2018 19:02
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Punkin Spunkin posted:I just don't think the cycle of coups helps anyone. Morsi may have been on the rode to subverting democracy but getting the military to get rid of him did that job for him instantly and lol if you thought anything otherwise would happen. Morsi himself came to power because of the military. They distanced themselves from Mubarak and came out in favor of the protesters, which was a huge reason the revolution in Egypt was relatively painless. At that point, Egypt was already at the mercy of the military, and they had sided with democracy. While I have no doubt that Sisi and co were pulling strings near the end to foster as much discontent as possible (~the biggest protests in human history~), it was clear to me at the time Morsi had lost the public to a degree that made it really unlikely he was going to be able to keep things together until the end of his term. The system Morsi was elected into was an absolute joke. He was elected president before the role of president was even defined. They started negotiating the details afterwards. So putting a pause on things, redoing the constitution, and then holding another election after poo poo had been fixed a bit wasn't a bad idea. But Sisi managed to build up a weird cult of personality freakishly quick, and he was able to violently take control to the cheers of people who had just stood up against military dictatorship like 2 years prior. I still don't know how he pulled that off, especially given how incompetent he's shown himself to be since then. It's like the whole country just fell into his lap with barely a whimper.
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Feb 15, 2018 19:30
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https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/964179138889338881?ref_src=twcamp%5Ecopy%7Ctwsrc%5Eandroid%7Ctwgr%5Ecopy%7Ctwcon%5E7090%7Ctwterm%5E1 Edit: Here's a crazy article on the subject. The sources in it say Wagner had 550 men attached to that group, and there are around 200 of them now who weren't killed or wounded. Also that it was a test to see what the US would do. They pulled up within 3 miles of the SDF positions, and then got the warning the US was planning to strike. Then they kept rolling until the bombing runs came. Says they didn't even fire back. https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1FZ2DZ?__twitter_impression=true Volkerball fucked around with this message at 20:02 on Feb 15, 2018 |
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Feb 15, 2018 19:52
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It's really cool how SOF dudes are effectively deciding foreign policy on the ground via necessary immediate expediency because for two administrations now the State Dept can't find its rear end in Syria with both hands and a map of Damascus.
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Feb 15, 2018 20:25
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Succesfully determined US response. Mother Russia is victorious again!
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Feb 15, 2018 20:28
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Volkerball posted:Says they didn't even fire back. The tank getting bombed on video fired a few moments before the bomb hit. Plus the part where they started the assault with artillery.
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Feb 15, 2018 20:34
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Warbadger posted:The tank getting bombed on video fired a few moments before the bomb hit. Plus the part where they started the assault with artillery. That isn't firing back. quote:"The warning was 20 minutes beforehand, in that time it was not feasible to turn the column around," said the source.
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Feb 15, 2018 20:40
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Wondering about this bit:quote:He said many of the injured had shrapnel in their bodies that was not showing up on X-rays, making treatment difficult. "The prognosis for most of the wounded is dismal," he said. Is this a known thing that some of our weapons do?
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Feb 15, 2018 20:41
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Willie Tomg posted:It's really cool how SOF dudes are effectively deciding foreign policy on the ground via necessary immediate expediency because for two administrations now the State Dept can't find its rear end in Syria with both hands and a map of Damascus. They aren't deciding anything. Rules of engagement and escalation of force are locked in. "Blow them all the gently caress up" comes before "get overrun" in the checklist. Evidently this is news to Russia. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 21:03 on Feb 15, 2018 |
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Feb 15, 2018 20:45
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Mozi posted:Wondering about this bit: Shrapnel can be anything. Cement, plastic, glass....Most grimly, it can even be other people's body parts. TheDeadlyShoe fucked around with this message at 21:04 on Feb 15, 2018 |
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Feb 15, 2018 21:02
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Volkerball posted:They aren't deciding anything. Rules of engagement and escalation of force are long since determined. "Blow them all the gently caress up" comes before "get overrun" in the checklist. Totally! quote:Evidently this is news to Russia. it really shouldn't be, though. A whole lot of things need to not happen on the civilian end before a PMC battalion performing recon-by-dick-on-cheese-grater is even a possibility. The units with the SDF aren't LARPing. There should've been no mission to perform because there should've been no ambiguity about consequences going in. There was though, because the USA has not ever really articulated what the actual mission is beyond "destroy ISIS" which after seventeen years of War on Terror on the kinder and gentler progenitors of ISIS isn't really soothing anyone down. Willie Tomg fucked around with this message at 21:09 on Feb 15, 2018 |
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Feb 15, 2018 21:04
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Volkerball posted:Morsi himself came to power because of the military. They distanced themselves from Mubarak and came out in favor of the protesters, which was a huge reason the revolution in Egypt was relatively painless. At that point, Egypt was already at the mercy of the military, and they had sided with democracy. While I have no doubt that Sisi and co were pulling strings near the end to foster as much discontent as possible (~the biggest protests in human history~), it was clear to me at the time Morsi had lost the public to a degree that made it really unlikely he was going to be able to keep things together until the end of his term. Sisi's popularity is overstated. He is constantly ridiculed, enjoys no popular support and is stringing along because: A - The extremely strong backing of the Saudis. Not without cost, as seen with the island affair. B - His ability to co-opt the military into his propaganda efforts, to the point where to oppose Sisi is to oppose our great and strong military. C - The complete control over state institutions and the blackballing of any dissenting opinions, in media, press or online. D - The lack of any viable alternatives, a symptom of C. E - The simple realization that if things are this bad economically when the country is ruled by the military, any further turbulence will do nothing but eat into your declining ability to support your family or your future. It's depressing, but simple. Freedom is nothing when you can't feed your children.
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Feb 15, 2018 21:06
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It was correct to blow up those Russian mercenaries invading Rojava.
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Feb 15, 2018 21:06
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Ham posted:Sisi's popularity is overstated. He is constantly ridiculed, enjoys no popular support and is stringing along because: Do you apply all of this to the time period right when Morsi was going down? I definitely think all of this applies now, but right when Sisi was coming into prominence it felt different to me.
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Feb 15, 2018 21:14
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Willie Tomg posted:it really shouldn't be, though. A whole lot of things need to not happen on the civilian end before a PMC battalion performing recon-by-dick-on-cheese-grater is even a possibility. I agree with the general spirit of your post, but at the same time, this isn't the first occurrence. Iranian backed militias tried to overrun an SDF position in al-Tanf a few months ago and they got a similar response. The US also communicates directly with Russia and other actors in Syria keeping them in the loop. We can sit here and talk about how US strategy in Syria is incoherent all we want, but one thing is 100% clear. The US has forces embedded with the SDF near fronts with the regime, and if regime-aligned forces try to move on those positions, the US isn't going to hesitate to give all the support needed to repel them. There's no confusion there. It's been proven time and time again. These men were sent on a suicide mission. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 21:30 on Feb 15, 2018 |
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Feb 15, 2018 21:23
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Volkerball posted:https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/964179138889338881?ref_src=twcamp%5Ecopy%7Ctwsrc%5Eandroid%7Ctwgr%5Ecopy%7Ctwcon%5E7090%7Ctwterm%5E1 reading this and it blows my mind that cossacks still act as a weird paramilitary arm of the russian government in the year of our lord two thousand and eighteen
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Feb 15, 2018 21:38
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The relative perception of E was probably much lower under Morsi, back when they were still riding the "revolutionary high" from having ousted Mubarak. That said Egypt's economy is growing again, thanks to a partial return of tourists and an increase in oil and gas exports. Moody's predict about 5% growth for this year and the next. Economically, the situation still largely sucks, but there is some reason for optimism as there are many positive indicators. Politically, we can't say the same thing, the Egyptian people will not get more freedom or more justice anytime soon.
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Feb 15, 2018 21:46
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Volkerball posted:I agree with the general spirit of your post, but at the same time, this isn't the first occurrence. Iranian backed militias tried to overrun an SDF position in al-Tanf a few months ago and they got a similar response. The US also communicates directly with Russia and other actors in Syria keeping them in the loop. We can sit here and talk about how US strategy in Syria is incoherent all we want, but one thing is 100% clear. The US has forces embedded with the SDF, and if you try to move on those forces, the US isn't going to hesitate to give those forces all the support they need. There's no confusion there. It's been proven time and time again. These men were sent on a suicide mission. There are a lot of factions in this fight and most have been low-key probing each other for a while, you're right that's all true. I guess what's loving me up about this is why. PMC cowboy-factor aside, this is waaaaayyyy too big a fuckup to be an accident, but if it wasn't an accident then what was the drat point in driving up, turning around and driving away? Like, my Russian is a little shaky and my convoy experience ends at calling people on their phone while driving to make sure our handful of cars driving the same direction on the highway get to ~wherever~ at the same time, but no fuckin' way does it take 20 minutes to pick up a radio and say "break break break, incoming air support and you have no air cover, abort this Insanely Bad Idea." Yeah yeah procedures, but no loving way do those procedures take 20 entire minutes. Every explanation I can think of is either waaaaaaay to simple and neat (they're dumb and doing things for no reason, or else just got greedy for an oil field, or else somebody in that PMC forgot to pay their dues to whoever in the FSB) or a hair away from pushpins and colored yarn webs on a bulletin board (PUTIN IS SHOWING ERDOGAN WHAT'LL HAPPEN IF HE "FIGHTS TERROR" IN HIS BACKYARD FOR HYBRID WAR AGAINST NATO; FRIEND OF ENEMY IS ENEMY; INFOWARS.COM). And through it all, like: man, don't ya wish we had a state department to really proactively figure out what's going on and why through the diplomatic process, or could be done in the future? Oh well. Just let the SOF guys schwack and get schwacked forever with no exit strategy or clear plan forwards beyond a RoE flowchart to sanity check individual incidents. It's fine, I hear they like it even! Willie Tomg fucked around with this message at 21:54 on Feb 15, 2018 |
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Feb 15, 2018 21:51
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I honestly feel as if the PMC part isn't being given enough consideration and Assad (their ostensible patron) perhaps wanting to test US resolve about the SDF and oilfields. PMCs talk themselves into it due to the paycheck being huge (supposedly dividends off the oil according to what's being reported), half figure they can pull out if it gets hot, but the other half are greedy about that paycheck. Then, when the airstrikes start coming in, the first half argues with the other half and before the argument's done they get blown up to bits. I mean, I get that mostly americans and such are in here, so everything involving russians has to be Putin's grand master plan or whateves, but to me the obvious answer does seem perfectly plausible. People who go into warzones for money get greedy, overestimate their chances with an opportunity and get their asses kicked because of it. CrazyLoon fucked around with this message at 21:58 on Feb 15, 2018 |
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Feb 15, 2018 21:55
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I think two different stories are most plausible so far. The first is that the role these men were playing was similar to that of the little green men in Ukraine. They don't exist, so their deaths can be covered up and lied about. That makes them expendable. Somebody above them thought it was worth it to try and call the bluff. If the US didn't attack, they could push on those oil fields and stand to gain. If not, they lose some guys, no harm no foul. In this situation, I think it's most likely that they kept plodding forward because they were told to, and didn't have much of a choice. The other is that a bunch of Russian mercs who are not known for their sobriety really, really misjudged the situation, talked themselves into it, and didn't get a reality check until the bombs started falling. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 22:15 on Feb 15, 2018 |
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Feb 15, 2018 22:12
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Willie Tomg posted:It's really cool how SOF dudes are effectively deciding foreign policy on the ground via necessary immediate expediency because for two administrations now the State Dept can't find its rear end in Syria with both hands and a map of Damascus. With the way US SIGINT works some dude heard a fuckton of Russki yaziki coming out of the convoy intercepts and ran that up the ladder right away. Significantly, you don't mobilize an entire region of fire and air support without someone high up signing off. Boots on the ground absolutely are not deciding poo poo, US ROE are extremely restrictive and unambiguous. Mozi posted:Wondering about this bit: Glass is the most common culprit for this. Fun fact: glass will very gradually work its way out over the next decade. RE 'how the gently caress did this happen chat' TBH they likely thought that the white English speaking dudes with the SDF were US PMC. Russian propaganda (as well as stuff coming out of Ukraine, Libya and Syria) has been going on and on about NATO mercenaries speerheading any and all unrest for years now. That's been such a go to for so long that it's entirely plausible. Or it really was a test of resolve. Of course the full dystopia possibility is that if your force is getting paid say 25% of oil revenue from captured facilities, if you get 50% of people on the payroll killed, you just got a 100% raise. In other words, a Tontine. On the other hand, oil facilities are major, critical, legitimate strategic interests for Assad. In all likelihood he's just trying to get as much of his country and resources back as possible. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 22:27 on Feb 15, 2018 |
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Feb 15, 2018 22:12
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Willie Tomg posted:
I mean, wasn't it proactive State Department and Pentagon planning that created this entire mess in the first place a decade and a half ago?
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Feb 15, 2018 22:17
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https://twitter.com/VivaRevolt/status/964198158241796097 https://twitter.com/Hammurabi_News/status/964138480405278720 https://twitter.com/VivaRevolt/status/964224174188310530 well seems like assad isnt giving up so easy. sending in the regulars and iranians.
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Feb 15, 2018 22:20
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://twitter.com/VivaRevolt/status/964198158241796097 WELP. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nendMLrpI-s&t=6s
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Feb 15, 2018 22:32
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Volkerball posted:The other is that a bunch of Russian mercs who are not known for their sobriety really, really misjudged the situation, talked themselves into it, and didn't get a reality check until the bombs started falling. PMCs are generally not keen on doing knowingly suicidal missions, so either the the person in charge didn't fully spell out that this attack could get hit with massive airstrikes, or the PMCs didn't believe/comprehend that this attack could go really bad that quickly. If the PMCs knew getting wiped by the US was a likely possibility and they did it anyway, they might find themselves more at home fighting with Nusra or the ISIS remnants nearby.
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Feb 15, 2018 22:45
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:reading this and it blows my mind that cossacks still act as a weird paramilitary arm of the russian government in the year of our lord two thousand and eighteen They used cossacks for "security" during the Sochi Olympics, with the predictable result of them beating up and scaring a bunch of people.
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Feb 15, 2018 22:48
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Saladin Rising posted:I feel like there's an element of this regardless. Well it's either that or bad intel.
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Feb 15, 2018 22:56
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Saladin Rising posted:I feel like there's an element of this regardless. Not every man running across no man's land in Verdun was an extremist. There's a lot of ways to manipulate men to fight against their better judgement.
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Feb 15, 2018 22:59
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Assad and SDF were just sending each other offers for a settlement and possibly working together to defend Afrin a few weeks ago. Seems like a missed opportunity for serious negotiations especially given their shared enemies in HTS and Turkey. I guess it wouldn't really work since they're just proxys of greater powers who hate each other and want leverage over each other more than peace, but an escalating shooting war between the two groups is such an unfortunate bloodbath that just feels super unnecessary.
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Feb 15, 2018 23:00
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steinrokkan posted:They used cossacks for "security" during the Sochi Olympics, with the predictable result of them beating up and scaring a bunch of people. What does Cossack actually mean in this 21st context
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Feb 15, 2018 23:18
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Saladin Rising posted:I feel like there's an element of this regardless. PMCs are generally not the smartest.
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Feb 15, 2018 23:19
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Squalid posted:What does Cossack actually mean in this 21st context At the end of the soviet union they signed a law allowing them to form hosts again. as to what they do today... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/feb/26/russia-cossacks-cadets-volgograd and music! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHCwjHhUvIc
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Feb 15, 2018 23:40
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