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Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
This is another good article about the NK diplomatic situation.

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Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

Charlz Guybon posted:

That was to prove Kim Jong Un was a badass. He was young and untested and that ship was sunk to prove to the military he had what it takes.

What evidence are you basing this claim on?

Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

https://twitter.com/timothys/status/971412121492774912?s=21

Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.

How about we start worrying if Bolton actually becomes NSA

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
I will never know for certain but if I had to make a bet, I'd bet that a North Korean torpedo blew that corvette out of the water.

As to why, I don't know, but it was in a disputed area and the North Koreans could have launched on the Cheonan as a signal to the ROK and U.S. to back off. Or alternatively, the submarine felt that the anti-submarine exercise amounted to a hostile act. There could be any number of explanations. It was in a sufficiently "gray" area maritime-wise that the chance of an escalation like that was higher than normal.

Let's not forget this is the same government that attempted to wipe out the South Korean government with a suicide commando platoon, and attacked and captured the USS Pueblo, right? If we take a goon trip to North Korea, I'm sure they'd be happy to give us a tour.

BrutalistMcDonalds fucked around with this message at 06:43 on Mar 8, 2018

A Typical Goon
Feb 25, 2011
On the other hand, Gulf of Tonkin, USS Maine etc

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

A Typical Goon posted:

On the other hand, Gulf of Tonkin, USS Maine etc
I too remember the USS Maine being South Korean.

Rent-A-Cop fucked around with this message at 14:28 on Mar 8, 2018

RandomPauI
Nov 24, 2006


Grimey Drawer
A torpedo would be detected though. They are noisy things that have distinct signatures.

Even if the sub weren't detected, a torpedo in the water and the location it launched from probably would be. And there would be a concerted effort to find the sub threat because it could attack other ships.

A Typical Goon
Feb 25, 2011

Rent-A-Cop posted:

I too remember the USS Maine being South Korean.

The gulf of Tonkin isn’t South Korean either :ssh:

Heer98
Apr 10, 2009
The idea that the US/ROKN sank their own ship is bonkers. Especially since it wasn't connected to, you know, a large and coordinated push for war by the highest levels of government.

Also, North Korean produced torpedo parts were recovered from the wreckage. Even a cheap and old diesel electric submarine like the types North Korea possesses is basically undetectable if it's lying in wait on battery power, and anti submarine warfare is really hard. Modern sensors aren't magic and a North Korean submarine was almost certainly laying in wait to ambush the Cheonan in those disputed waters, which would have been unexpected and basically unstoppable by an unalerted crew.

Critics of the investigation usually front arguments that sound really similar to those advanced on RT about how Russia totally didn't shoot down MH17: finding tiny details to nitpick while avoiding the glaring evidence and advancing bizarre conspiracy theories.

Kim Jong Un almost certainly murdered dozens of young South Korean conscript sailors to satisfy some internal political dynamics in his regime.

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

TsarZiedonis posted:

The idea that the US/ROKN sank their own ship is bonkers. Especially since it wasn't connected to, you know, a large and coordinated push for war by the highest levels of government.

Also, North Korean produced torpedo parts were recovered from the wreckage. Even a cheap and old diesel electric submarine like the types North Korea possesses is basically undetectable if it's lying in wait on battery power, and anti submarine warfare is really hard. Modern sensors aren't magic and a North Korean submarine was almost certainly laying in wait to ambush the Cheonan in those disputed waters, which would have been unexpected and basically unstoppable by an unalerted crew.
Reading about it some more, it was also apparently a wake-homing torpedo, which means a "passive" sensor and not an "active" one. That would've made it harder to detect. No active sensor, no pings:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jr0JaXfKj68

Basically the North Korean sub aimed the torpedo at where the captain thought the Cheonan's wake would be in X number of seconds, then once the torpedo got there, it steered itself into the wake, following it up to the ship's rear and... boom. Blew the back of the corvette off.

Also shallow water makes it harder to detect.

BrutalistMcDonalds fucked around with this message at 19:30 on Mar 8, 2018

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

BrutalistMcDonalds posted:

Reading about it some more, it was also apparently a wake-homing torpedo, which means a "passive" sensor and not an "active" one. That would've made it harder to detect. No active sensor, no pings:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jr0JaXfKj68

Basically the North Korean sub aimed the torpedo at where the captain thought the Cheonan's wake would be in X number of seconds, then once the torpedo got there, it steered itself into the wake, following it up to the ship's rear and... boom. Blew the back of the corvette off.

Also shallow water makes it harder to detect.

Maybe they did detect it too. Maybe their final words were “why is the torpedo alarm going off? That’s weird”

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

Maybe they did detect it too. Maybe their final words were “why is the torpedo alarm going off? That’s weird”

Pretty much. They weren't at war and they had no reason to think that anyone was going to torpedo them. If they even detected the torpedo in third baffles they'd have had very little time to figure out what it was and report it.

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day

TsarZiedonis posted:

The idea that the US/ROKN sank their own ship is bonkers. Especially since it wasn't connected to, you know, a large and coordinated push for war by the highest levels of government.

I'd agree on this alone if the argument was that it was intentional, but the alternative to NK sinking the ship is a cover up for a gently caress up.

AlexanderCA
Jul 21, 2010

by Cyrano4747
That's one hell of a post/name combo.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Conspiratiorist posted:

I'd agree on this alone if the argument was that it was intentional, but the alternative to NK sinking the ship is a cover up for a gently caress up.
I could buy it being a leftover mine from the war, but there is solid evidence that the explosion was external and that is a hard scenario to generate with a fuckup.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011
Apparently South Korea are going to make a major announcement re: North Korea at 7pm EST.

Samurai Sanders
Nov 4, 2003

Pillbug

mediadave posted:

Apparently South Korea are going to make a major announcement re: North Korea at 7pm EST.
How big are we thinking? Just another promise of future de-escalation, or an official end to the war or something? Or something else entirely?

Samurai Sanders fucked around with this message at 23:58 on Mar 8, 2018

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC

mediadave posted:

Apparently South Korea are going to make a major announcement re: North Korea at 7pm EST.

Confirmed by Trump

https://twitter.com/JDiamond1/status/971871893216165888?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.somethingawful.com%2F

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Samurai Sanders posted:

How big are we thinking? Just another promise of future de-escalation, or an official end to the war or something? Or something else entirely?
The war starts and 58 minutes.

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
https://twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/971887659315613696
My guess is that it'll happen at the same time as Kim holds the meeting on the ROK side of the DMZ.

Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.
Question: In a war with North Korea, how likely are they to aim at South Korea and Japan respectively?

Also, would they have anywhere they could hide? Would the bullet train tunnels work in Japan, and if so, would there be any equivalent in South Korea?

Heer98
Apr 10, 2009

Willo567 posted:

Question: In a war with North Korea, how likely are they to aim at South Korea and Japan respectively?

Also, would they have anywhere they could hide? Would the bullet train tunnels work in Japan, and if so, would there be any equivalent in South Korea?

Their stated intention is to preemptively strike, at the very least, major ports and airports in Japan and South Korea. Nearly every nuclear weapon they possess would be falling on Korean or Japanese soil.

North Korea is extremely mountainous, and there are a ton of little ravines, valleys and passes to hide in. They've also spent the last 60 years building tunnels and caves all over the place. A lot of their operational nuclear force operates out of hard to find or hard to hit places, it's why a disarming first strike probably wouldn't work.

Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.

TsarZiedonis posted:

Their stated intention is to preemptively strike, at the very least, major ports and airports in Japan and South Korea. Nearly every nuclear weapon they possess would be falling on Korean or Japanese soil.

North Korea is extremely mountainous, and there are a ton of little ravines, valleys and passes to hide in. They've also spent the last 60 years building tunnels and caves all over the place. A lot of their operational nuclear force operates out of hard to find or hard to hit places, it's why a disarming first strike probably wouldn't work.

Nuclear weapons wouldn't be they only thing they fire , would they?

Would they save those, or just launch them all at once?

SeANMcBAY
Jun 28, 2006

Look on the bright side.



The announcement was that Trump is going to meet with Kim.
https://twitter.com/ap/status/971902330785423360?s=21

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

Willo567 posted:

Nuclear weapons wouldn't be they only thing they fire , would they?

Would they save those, or just launch them all at once?
Dunno. As far as missiles generally, Saddam kept his Scuds firing for several weeks, I think, and he had something like 1/20 of the ballistic missiles that North Korea has.

North Korea has a fuckton of missiles.

Samurai Sanders
Nov 4, 2003

Pillbug
In NK or not?

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011

SeANMcBAY posted:

The announcement was that Trump is going to meet with Kim.
https://twitter.com/ap/status/971902330785423360?s=21

Oh lordy, what an idiot. That's the reward you dangle for the end of negotiations.

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC
https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/971902950149840901?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.somethingawful.com%2F

Well played Kim.

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy
I'm seriously impressed.

Samurai Sanders
Nov 4, 2003

Pillbug
I’ve been hearing for decades that successfully inviting the US President for a direct meeting was the far far goal for a country like NK that they would probably never reach. One year of Trump and they’re there.

Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?
Oh look, the Trump administration continues to get outplayed by North Korea. I’d say it’s pretty much unequivocally a good thing, except I’m worried about what happens when Trump finally realizes that this isn’t the diplomatic win he wants it to be.

Mekchu
Apr 10, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Samurai Sanders posted:

I’ve been hearing for decades that successfully inviting the US President for a direct meeting was the far far goal for a country like NK that they would probably never reach. One year of Trump and they’re there.

Technically we're on year 2 :goonsay:

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Warbadger posted:

Pretty much. They weren't at war and they had no reason to think that anyone was going to torpedo them. If they even detected the torpedo in third baffles they'd have had very little time to figure out what it was and report it.

They fight naval battles over that line relatively often. No RoK ship is going to think that.

WarpedNaba
Feb 8, 2012

Being social makes me swell!

Paradoxish posted:

Oh look, the Trump administration continues to get outplayed by North Korea. I’d say it’s pretty much unequivocally a good thing, except I’m worried about what happens when Trump finally realizes that this isn’t the diplomatic win he wants it to be.

Throw a tantrum, continue the next 2.5 years without any form on punishment for this, walk away completely unharmed for anything he's ever done?

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011
I also suspect there may be a case of 'the dog that caught the car' for this with North Korea.

They've got the presidential summit they've always wanted...now what?

Samurai Sanders
Nov 4, 2003

Pillbug

mediadave posted:

I also suspect there may be a case of 'the dog that caught the car' for this with North Korea.

They've got the presidential summit they've always wanted...now what?
Make a massive domestic propaganda victory out of it, I assume.

WarpedNaba
Feb 8, 2012

Being social makes me swell!
Pretty much. "We broke the yankee scum and brought them to the table like the inferior creatures they are." wouldn't look out of place on the KCNA.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
On the brighter side, if they do meet in NK maybe we can just leave him there.

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Eox
Jun 20, 2010

by Fluffdaddy
Trump is going to martyr himself and secure a legacy as "The Best President Ever" by smuggling in a nuke disguised as his hyperbaric sleep chamber/iron lung

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