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El Chingon
Oct 9, 2012

icantfindaname posted:

What do people think of AMLO in Mexico? I read this article on him and it was good

He is the most popular presidential candidate, but it is due to the total incompetence of the last 3 administrations than anything else. The debate has been diluted to "we want to try something else even if it turns out to be worse" as people are really frustrated.

AMLO has some really crazy ideas and no substance in my opinion. He proposes very populist things like cancelling the new Mexico City Airport (very much needed) as it is a waste of money that could go to social programs for the poor. He said 2 years ago that the government should fund the construction for 5 oilrefineries (he has now said 2 is enough) even though the oil production has been in a steep decline, they would cost a fortune and would take 10 years to build (we don't really know if there will be any oil in a decade to refine).

Also, something that his opposition is really milking is some of his staff's ties to the Venezuela regime (AMLO denies this, but there's evidence of his staff visiting Venezuela for meetings with government staff and forums organized in Mexico where some of the speakers are tied to the Venezuela regime).

Even though I'm not a big fan of him, I'm starting to feel like due to the complete ineptitude/corruption of the current administration, he has a real chance of winning. That divisive rhetoric between poor-rich always works wonders in Latin America.

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Ardennes
May 12, 2002

ronya posted:

"but what if... neoliberalism is bad" is certainly an odd way to read it; neoliberalism is almost totally orthogonal to the tired tussle between ISI and ELI and middle-income traps

Yeah, I would say neoliberalism almost certainly has an impact on the "tussle" between ISI and ELI.


El Chingon posted:

He is the most popular presidential candidate, but it is due to the total incompetence of the last 3 administrations than anything else. The debate has been diluted to "we want to try something else even if it turns out to be worse" as people are really frustrated.

AMLO has some really crazy ideas and no substance in my opinion. He proposes very populist things like cancelling the new Mexico City Airport (very much needed) as it is a waste of money that could go to social programs for the poor. He said 2 years ago that the government should fund the construction for 5 oilrefineries (he has now said 2 is enough) even though the oil production has been in a steep decline, they would cost a fortune and would take 10 years to build (we don't really know if there will be any oil in a decade to refine).

Also, something that his opposition is really milking is some of his staff's ties to the Venezuela regime (AMLO denies this, but there's evidence of his staff visiting Venezuela for meetings with government staff and forums organized in Mexico where some of the speakers are tied to the Venezuela regime).

Even though I'm not a big fan of him, I'm starting to feel like due to the complete ineptitude/corruption of the current administration, he has a real chance of winning. That divisive rhetoric between poor-rich always works wonders in Latin America.

I pretty skeptical about AMLO, but again the rise of populism (be it left or right) happens because working people are simply not seeing any real benefits from the current system. This is particularly striking in Mexico, where it is pretty obvious that either the PRI or PAN really has the slightest interest in changing the course of the country. Arguably, in the end, AMLO may actually do relatively nothing as well, but the population, as is in many countries is desperate and populism is the only choice left to them.

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 17:27 on Mar 20, 2018

ArnieD
Apr 1, 2015

El Chingon posted:

...

AMLO has some really crazy ideas and no substance in my opinion. He proposes very populist things like cancelling the new Mexico City Airport (very much needed) as it is a waste of money that could go to social programs for the poor. ...
...

OMG not to the POOR!!!

I'm not making GBS threads on you, just thought it sounded funny how is phrased as a negative to have social programs for the poor (unless you really meant it like that)

I agree with some of what you say, but I’ll probably vote for AMLO anyway. I can’t bring myself to vote for the other two or three candidates, and not voting will probably just make it easier for PRI to fix the elections, at least I want them to struggle a little to eliminate my vote.

By the way, what's the evidence that AMLO supports Maduro? I’m genuinely asking, I haven't really looked into it. All I know is that some collaborators said some positive things about Hugo Chavez and haven’t publicly denounced Maduro’s government… Even if they met with Venezuelan officials, jumping from there to AMLO will turn Mexico into Venezuela is ridiculous IMO, wouldn't he need the support of the army for that in the first place?

A lot of the fears and propaganda against AMLO I think is kind of stupid also, they talk like Mexico is Sweden and AMLO will come to destroy our beautiful society. Where do this people think they live? the country is in horrible shape.

El Chingon
Oct 9, 2012

ArnieD posted:

OMG not to the POOR!!!

I'm not making GBS threads on you, just thought it sounded funny how is phrased as a negative to have social programs for the poor (unless you really meant it like that)

I agree with some of what you say, but I’ll probably vote for AMLO anyway. I can’t bring myself to vote for the other two or three candidates, and not voting will probably just make it easier for PRI to fix the elections, at least I want them to struggle a little to eliminate my vote.

By the way, what's the evidence that AMLO supports Maduro? I’m genuinely asking, I haven't really looked into it. All I know is that some collaborators said some positive things about Hugo Chavez and haven’t publicly denounced Maduro’s government… Even if they met with Venezuelan officials, jumping from there to AMLO will turn Mexico into Venezuela is ridiculous IMO, wouldn't he need the support of the army for that in the first place?

A lot of the fears and propaganda against AMLO I think is kind of stupid also, they talk like Mexico is Sweden and AMLO will come to destroy our beautiful society. Where do this people think they live? the country is in horrible shape.

Here are some links I found googling it from different news outlets:

http://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/2018/01/17/1214250

https://www.animalpolitico.com/2017/05/venezuela-morena-apoyo/ (MORENA said this is fake news btw, but Hector Diaz from Morena can be clearly seen in the pictures)

http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/dirigente-de-morena-llama-a-integrar-a-mexico-a-la-revolucion-bolivariana.html

I agree the country is in bad shape, but It can also be in a worse situation.

I don't mind government spending on social programs, but they have to be really well focused and not used as a propaganda tool as they have been (PROSPERA comes to mind) in which we have invested billions throughout the years with little results. You can't attract foreign investment when you say you would cancel the construction of the airport and when the current one has been over capacity for the last 20 years.

Finally, I have lived in Mexico City all my life. The current collapsed state of infrastructure and security is totally their fault(including AMLO) for not planning for the future and just spending on programs (butchering the budget of several government institutions to pay for them) that would give them immediate results and more importantly, votes.

joepinetree
Apr 5, 2012
Mexico, like most of Latin America, spends very little on social programs from an international perspective. The idea that it has to be "really focused" or whatever is part of the reason why most Latin American countries redistribute so pathetically little income when compared to any developed nation on earth.

ArnieD
Apr 1, 2015

El Chingon posted:

Here are some links I found googling it from different news outlets:

http://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/2018/01/17/1214250

https://www.animalpolitico.com/2017/05/venezuela-morena-apoyo/ (MORENA said this is fake news btw, but Hector Diaz from Morena can be clearly seen in the pictures)

http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/dirigente-de-morena-llama-a-integrar-a-mexico-a-la-revolucion-bolivariana.html

I agree the country is in bad shape, but It can also be in a worse situation.

I don't mind government spending on social programs, but they have to be really well focused and not used as a propaganda tool as they have been (PROSPERA comes to mind) in which we have invested billions throughout the years with little results. You can't attract foreign investment when you say you would cancel the construction of the airport and when the current one has been over capacity for the last 20 years.

Finally, I have lived in Mexico City all my life. The current collapsed state of infrastructure and security is totally their fault(including AMLO) for not planning for the future and just spending on programs (butchering the budget of several government institutions to pay for them) that would give them immediate results and more importantly, votes.

I get your point. I guess it depends on how well you're doing, but IMO the "it could be worse" argument is sad, where supposed to be happy with whatever they decide to throw at us? .
I'm not a delusional and blind AMLO follower, the guy probably won't do much to fix anything, and also I don't think he'll have the majority so the opposition won't let him do much.
I just think there's no ethical reason to vote for PRI or PAN, they're already had the opportunity and they just brought down Mexico to this awful situation. Besides, all the people I know that have told me that they would never vote for AMLO and prefer to vote for PRI or PAN are people that are doing pretty good themselves and don't really care for anyone else (gently caress you, got mine) or really stupid people. I guess whatever happens, happens I just wish I could just sleep until july 1 and get it over with.

Freezer
Apr 20, 2001

The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.
I have a both an intellectual and deep felt guttural dislike for Anaya, so that makes my decision a little bit easier. gently caress that guy.

Ulvino
Mar 20, 2009
Goodbye PPK, for your year and a half as President you'll always be remembered in my heart as a loving traitor.

Now the Fujimori siblings have set their own Thunderdome to see who survives and gets chosen to turn the country into a shithole that makes me not want to set foot on it again.

Comedy option: Castañeda for 2021

What? No, I'm not bitter at all, no sir!

zocio
Nov 3, 2011
Porque no te comiste el chicharrón Barnechea!?

SexyBlindfold
Apr 24, 2008
i dont care how much probation i get capital letters are for squares hehe im so laid back an nice please read my low effort shitposts about the arab spring

thanxs!!!
So in the end PPK pardoned a monster in exchange for a grand total of three more months as an universally reviled, politically impotent president. Hope they were worth it! :waycool:

What's the outlook for the near future? In a normal country, with a normal people, you'd think these events would demolish the support for both PPK and the fujimoristas, but I know better than to think el Chino's supporters have anything close to shame.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

SexyBlindfold posted:

So in the end PPK pardoned a monster in exchange for a grand total of three more months as an universally reviled, politically impotent president. Hope they were worth it! :waycool:

What's the outlook for the near future? In a normal country, with a normal people, you'd think these events would demolish the support for both PPK and the fujimoristas, but I know better than to think el Chino's supporters have anything close to shame.

So what happened to the base of support that got Humala elected? The Broad Front still exists but it seems like the left pretty much dissolved in Peru.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Ardennes posted:

So what happened to the base of support that got Humala elected? The Broad Front still exists but it seems like the left pretty much dissolved in Peru.

Humala ran against mines and then immediately started approving more mines so people turned on him pretty quick.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Badger of Basra posted:

Humala ran against mines and then immediately started approving more mines so people turned on him pretty quick.

I could see him personally taking it hit, but there seems to be a collapse of the left at large in Peru. You have effectively a PPK (a center-right party) and the Fujimorities (hard right...maybe far-right) at each other's throats with the left kind of just sequestered in the corner.

Cicero
Dec 17, 2003

Jumpjet, melta, jumpjet. Repeat for ten minutes or until victory is assured.

Badger of Basra posted:

Humala ran against mines and then immediately started approving more mines so people turned on him pretty quick.
Mines? Like, land mines or something?

Dias
Feb 20, 2011

by sebmojo

Cicero posted:

Mines? Like, land mines or something?

Like mineral mines, I'd assume, although the image of a president just putting landmines scattered across their country in times of peace is kinda funny.

Negostrike
Aug 15, 2015


I dunno, they might want to deter Ecuadorians for some reason..

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Cicero posted:

Mines? Like, land mines or something?

Mineral mines. Most of Peru’s recent economic growth is based on resource exploitation but it hasn’t been popular with many of the people living around the mines for a variety of reasons.

Humala was supported by a lot of those people and he turned on them almost as soon as he was inaugurated.

Sephyr
Aug 28, 2012
Former president and future political prisoner Lula had his caravan shot at while visiting southern states.

"Moderate" political figures are torn between saying that he deserved it or that it's a false flag attack.

PS- Just as I posted this, I just read that a neonazi kid stabbed a black kid in a school not three blocks from my house. It's actuelly where I'm registered to vote. Press is treating it as "just kids and their horseplay".

Brazil is gone. The whole 'peaceful, cordial people' thing was always a (useful) fiction, but even that fig leaf has been torn away. The question now is: what comes after?

Sephyr fucked around with this message at 17:07 on Mar 28, 2018

bagual
Oct 29, 2010

inconspicuous

Sephyr posted:

what comes after?

Plutonis
Mar 25, 2011

We definitely had a civil war/actual revolution coming a long time ago and I openly welcome it. < - is a bourgeouise that's currently on a vacation in europe

Plutonis
Mar 25, 2011

Lmao remember when the government had a shitton of europeans immigrate to make the country whiter for eugenic purposes

Negostrike
Aug 15, 2015


Plutonis posted:

Lmao remember when the government had a shitton of europeans immigrate to make the country whiter for eugenic purposes



LOL nobody's surprised.

But what about Brazil's semen imports from the U.S. from 2016-16? Got any data about it?

joepinetree
Apr 5, 2012
https://twitter.com/BlogdoNoblat/status/978879225880104961

Everything is fine, folks.

nerdz
Oct 12, 2004


Complex, statistically improbable things are by their nature more difficult to explain than simple, statistically probable things.
Grimey Drawer

Is this dude reliable? Everything I've seen from his was LULA ARRESTED TOMOROW and other right wing tripe

Look at this totally unbiased poll

https://twitter.com/BlogdoNoblat/status/979117438909468672

joepinetree
Apr 5, 2012

nerdz posted:

Is this dude reliable? Everything I've seen from his was LULA ARRESTED TOMOROW and other right wing tripe

Look at this totally unbiased poll

https://twitter.com/BlogdoNoblat/status/979117438909468672

Reliable in the sense that as a Veja journalist he most definitely has extensive contacts with the Temer administration and would likely only float something like this with their approval.

SexyBlindfold
Apr 24, 2008
i dont care how much probation i get capital letters are for squares hehe im so laid back an nice please read my low effort shitposts about the arab spring

thanxs!!!
... Temer isn't direita?
or do they mean, like, Bolsonaro

Dias
Feb 20, 2011

by sebmojo
Noblat is Temer's #1 rear end kisser, anything he says is him trying to kiss more rear end. That's how you get "Temer isn't right wing" and "hey wouldn't it be dope if Temer continued president FOREVER".

joepinetree
Apr 5, 2012
I mean, yeah. It's not reliable in the sense that it is a true piece of reporting. It is reliable in the sense of this guy is an insider with Temer folks. I really wouldn't be surprised if we started seeing this being floated around more.

dead gay comedy forums
Oct 21, 2011


wtf Noblat is not only still alive but still making GBS threads words

that man is a prodigy

Magrov
Mar 27, 2010

I'm completely lost and have no idea what's going on. I'll be at my bunker.

If you need any diplomatic or mineral stuff just call me. If you plan to nuke India please give me a 5 minute warning to close the windows!


Also Iapetus sucks!

joepinetree posted:

I mean, yeah. It's not reliable in the sense that it is a true piece of reporting. It is reliable in the sense of this guy is an insider with Temer folks. I really wouldn't be surprised if we started seeing this being floated around more.

https://twitter.com/BlogdoNoblat/status/865263252309254144

joepinetree
Apr 5, 2012

Yeah, and if you read up what he posted the next day as to why it didn't happen it becomes very clear that it was about sending a message (the follow up is about how he didn't resign because he was thinking of his ministers who would lose their "Foro Privilegiado" if they weren't ministers anymore). My point isn't that he is normally right. It's that he relays the messages Temer wants to relay.

Plutonis
Mar 25, 2011

Alexandre Frota is gonna be bolsonaros culture minister lnfao

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

https://twitter.com/telesurenglish/status/980633365123563520

Carlos Alvarado, of the incumbent left/center left Citizens' Action Party (PAC), just won Costa Rica's presidential election by a much larger margin than expected - and it wasn't sure he was going to win at all from what I can tell.

He defeated Fabricio Alvarado, of the right-wing/evangelical National Restoration Party (PRN), who ran his whole campaign on being anti-gay marriage.

Tacky-Ass Rococco
Sep 7, 2010

by R. Guyovich

Badger of Basra posted:

https://twitter.com/telesurenglish/status/980633365123563520

Carlos Alvarado, of the incumbent left/center left Citizens' Action Party (PAC), just won Costa Rica's presidential election by a much larger margin than expected - and it wasn't sure he was going to win at all from what I can tell.

He defeated Fabricio Alvarado, of the right-wing/evangelical National Restoration Party (PRN), who ran his whole campaign on being anti-gay marriage.

You idiot. Read the thread title. This is not the place for news of anything nice happening.

Thank you for your informative post.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

I actually had to go check Wikipedia because I knew they were both Alvarados and I just assumed Bad Alvarado had won.

SexyBlindfold
Apr 24, 2008
i dont care how much probation i get capital letters are for squares hehe im so laid back an nice please read my low effort shitposts about the arab spring

thanxs!!!
i guess that's a relief, but I'm still afraid hardline evangelicals might grow to be A Very Big Thing™ in latin american politics. aren't they already pretty influential in Brazil?

Apraxin
Feb 22, 2006

General-Admiral

SexyBlindfold posted:

i guess that's a relief, but I'm still afraid hardline evangelicals might grow to be A Very Big Thing™ in latin american politics. aren't they already pretty influential in Brazil?
a timely BBC piece, if you want to be depressed (Catholic evangelical rather than Protestant, but still):
https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/980600174954336256

quote:

Sara Winter has always had strong views. As an activist, she used to chain herself to fences in protest at chauvinism and sexual violence. She was, by her own admission, one of the most high-profile feminists in Brazil. Sara is certainly striking. She has peroxide blonde hair, tattoos and a snappy dress sense.

But the thing that stands out the most is the badge she is wearing on her top. It is a picture of a skull with a knife through it and two guns. "It's my favourite police organisation, Bope," she says, proudly referring to the logo of Brazil's Special Police Operations Battalion. "They climb into the favelas and kill the bad guys. They put their lives at risk all the time to save the population of Rio."

It is not the sort of comment you would expect from a liberal activist. But Sara has had a political about-turn in recent years. Six years after having an abortion, Sara became pregnant again. Between the two pregnancies, she had regained her faith in the Catholic Church and her views on pregnancy - and politics - changed radically.

"I was so happy because I felt that God was giving me a second chance to be a mum," she recalls. "I decided to come back to the Church and I think I can help women much more with conservative politics than feminism. [I spent] five years being the most popular feminist in Brazil and I did nothing for women," she says. "I just spent this time talking about abortion and legalising drugs and communism and I called that empowering myself."

Sara's political idol is the far-right presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro. Many refer to Mr Bolsonaro as the "Brazilian Trump", the two are very different men in very different countries but the similarities, or rather the set of circumstances that allow them to both exist, are uncanny. Mr Bolsonaro brands himself as different from all the rest, a clean candidate amid a sea of corrupt politicians that has been the talk of Brazil for the past few years.

He has been accused of being homophobic and told a congresswoman she was not worth raping. He has ranted against minorities and has called for looser gun laws. Jair Bolsonaro does not hold back.

But Sara will not have a bad word said against him. "I know it sounds really awkward, but really, if any woman could see Bolsonaro's policies, she would be in love, like me!" She gushingly talks about one of his proposals - chemically castrating rapists. "We have so many feminist congresswomen, why didn't they suggest this before?" she asks. "Bolsonaro did it."

Cup Runneth Over
Aug 8, 2009

She said life's
Too short to worry
Life's too long to wait
It's too short
Not to love everybody
Life's too long to hate


April Fools...?

dead gay comedy forums
Oct 21, 2011


SexyBlindfold posted:

i guess that's a relief, but I'm still afraid hardline evangelicals might grow to be A Very Big Thing™ in latin american politics. aren't they already pretty influential in Brazil?

this is actually A Nuanced Subject that unfortunately got oversimplified by a ridiculous degree, but we can try to put a better info out there

WARNING: Ridiculously huge post ahead

Evangelicals are growing in Brazil, yes, but Brazil being what it is, it isn't an explosion of extremism. But rather, serious sociologists like Jessé de Souza argue that, in the absence of a solid system of social policies and with the Catholic Church flopping loving hard with the masses after its internal inquiries against liberation theology, evangelicalism blossomed because it offered unparalleled means for the poor and disenfranchised to pool together resources and support one another.

Think about it like that (and I think this is one of the cases that Jessé wrote about it): we have a kid that works his rear end off at school, gets good grades but has gently caress all in terms of structure because has no dad and his mother works two jobs and whatever extra so that they can have something on their table by the end of the day, but putting the kid through university is a crazy pipe dream until they talk with their pastor and turns out that their church has a sort-of fund that they use to help the kids of the community with educational expenses, and they put the kid in a nice prep-school which helps them get into a public university (which are the best around here) and bang, a massive life-changing opportunity is now realized.

But then you are his uni colleague and you gotta ask yourself really about the kid because how come if they are evangelical because you are for gently caress not sure since they get some drink every now and then, has some weed from time to time and dances to Pablo Vittar (drag superstar) and they voted Worker's Party and maaaaaaaybe went PSOL downticket at local level.

In the minds of the foreigner observer or the local middle/upper classes, the "what the gently caress is going on" is automatic but folks who are extremely keen on the subject (usually those who came from massively disadvantaged backgrounds and became intellectuals/artists) say that this is actually one of the aspects of Brazilian society that are most skimmed by the conventional, "elitist" (so to speak) analysis: there is an immense aspect of practicality and pragmatism among Brazilians, that they will embrace any sort of social tendency that helps them survive and hopefully thrive, but they do not necessarily share its public discourse.

Think about it: Bolsonaro decided to convert to a neopentecostalist church to attract more voters, but his actual base is reliably much more in the middle class rather than the working poor, which is where the large majority of evangelical converts of the last three decades are. Turns out that "a good criminal is a dead criminal" would be pretty bad discourse for a pastor who wants to win the favelas.

But not for a certain type of "new" evangelical, one that is decidedly middle-class oriented, neoliberal-adapted, which goes for a very specific moralist discourse and appeals to lovely common sense arguments, Manichean views and a lot of bullshit like the prosperity gospel (lmao) which are being ridiculously effective in swaying middle class people (disclaimer: my mother is a very good example, so I might be biased).

These people are the ones who would be strongly in the Catholic corner along most of Brazilian history, but for many reasons, mostly having to deal how to reconcile Catholic public discourse with a "modern" global neoliberal outlook (which is one that has become quite dominant in Brazil), went hard for denominations who are quite american-ish in their public views (incidentally, traditional evangelical strains like Lutheran, Presbyterian and older Baptists are really against those and have been unlikely allies to certain left-ish causes because of that).

You know the type: they think it who think that everything is wrong and that personal happiness and success are JUST AROUND THE CORNER and everything DEPENDS ON THEM ONLY and that there are no forces outside their control that are much greater than them, so guess what, God Almighty is here to make all that poo poo you want happen and more, and He is going to give you not only all the money you need but a loving pink unicorn too!

These ones are the true PITA of national politics. In fact, there are a lot of them who join the Judiciary or law enforcement and so it goes and are pushed by their preachers to "bring the church with them" in their professions, and then you end up with judges taking clearly highly unconstitutional decisions because they justify those on basis of their faith which, while the appeal takes place, can seriously gently caress someone's life for the duration or hell in the case of abortions just ruin it for real.

And this isn't popular evangelicals vs comfortable ones too: the leaders of the popular, masses-oriented churches have been exploiting their base of support by flaunting numbers to politicians and swaying them to convert, while also giving them buffer to a lot of crap that they should really answer to. But this isn't news to anyone in the world, really.

The peculiar - very truly Brazilian difference here - is that the average working class citizen, according to guys like Jessé, doesn't have any cognitive dissonance about it at all. Rather, simply accepts it as the way things are and goes on to survive another day. "Sure", they say, "at the top my church leader is covering for a bunch of corrupt assholes and gets a shitload of tax evasion, but at the local level, my pastor helped me get this solid job and my kids have music lessons for free". Most importantly, something that is forgotten during the conventional critiques of Brazilian evangelicals, a critical mass of those guys went hard for the Worker's Party during the Lula and Dilma presidencies.

so yeah it is a really dense issue

dead gay comedy forums fucked around with this message at 05:39 on Apr 2, 2018

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dead gay comedy forums
Oct 21, 2011


also sorry for the double-post but Sara Winter has build her entire "career" out of being a political troll and she pretty much is reviled by any serious feminist here, and "most famous" lmao, she never put herself in any position of actual danger like many others have

I once asked about her and somebody who said that she knew her from the internet at the beginning said she got owned left and right at every turn in all sorts of feminist online orgs because she was being ludicrous all the time and when called on it she would printscreen the reactions calling on her bullshit and post those on libertarian/"rationalist"/liberal groups on orkut and facebook later saying "LOOK AT THESE CRAZY WOMEN NOT AGREEING WITH ME AM I RIGHT GUYS?", which is all you need to know

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