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They expect no reprisals from Trump or Europe?
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Apr 8, 2018 04:44
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My theory is that the SAA's remaining bomb stockpile has a lot of mislabeled/unlabeled warheads and they know it. A huge amount of SAA personnel have died or defected in the last decade, their munitions inventory is probably a mess. That's why you see Russian and Iranian media talking about a "planned chemical provocation" by rebels every few months: they're expecting this will happen but they don't know when a bad warhead will get dropped and the SAA doesn't have enough of a stockpile to just scrap questionable Alternatively, Assad just likes to show off how he can brutalize his rebellious subjects with impunity because he's a tremendous fucker
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Apr 8, 2018 04:46
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I thought chemical shells had different fuses.
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Apr 8, 2018 04:49
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You'd see a lot more small scale sarin attacks if that were the case, rather than these one off massive ones. Also, I believe sarin munitions have binary components that have to be assembled prior to an attack so it's not like they can be mistaken for conventional munitions. The message here isn't to the US or the west. It's to the people of Syria. It fits right in with how the regime has conducted its business for decades. All they know is brutality.
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Apr 8, 2018 04:54
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Yeah I'm not a munitions tech but I don't think you can just accidentally deploy a chemical weapon, by design there're multiple parts you have to consciously put together on purpose.
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Apr 8, 2018 04:55
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I kind of assume they deployed chemical weapons because they where about to close a deal to bus out fighters and one of the rebel groups tried to change the deal for better terms. You don't like the deal the government is giving you well in that case here is a chemical strike.
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Apr 8, 2018 04:58
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RaffyTaffy posted:I kind of assume they deployed chemical weapons because they where about to close a deal to bus out fighters and one of the rebel groups tried to change the deal for better terms. Do those kids look like fighters to you? That's who gets bussed out in these deals. And that's who gets punished when the regime wants to flex its control over the Syrian people. Sky news is putting the death toll over 70. https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/982835108053946368?s=19 It's been several hours now, so the numbers shouldn't rise dramatically. It's usually only the first few hours where the death toll grows exponentially. Hopefully it isn't any worse than what is currently being reported, which would put it at about an equivalent attack to Khan Sheikhoun.
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Apr 8, 2018 06:04
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The last chemical attack took place after Trump said Assad was going to remain the leader of Syria, so maybe this one took place because Trump started talking about withdrawing from the country. That might seem like a stupid reason to risk pissing him off and convincing him he needs to stay in the country, but whoever orders these attacks seems to be kind of a dumbass/gambler in the first place since even Obama didn't know he wasn't going to bomb the gently caress out of Assad for the first major chemical attack until the British got cold feet. It looks like it was also the one year anniversary of Trump firing a bunch of missiles into the dirt after the last attack. This sure looks like taunting to me. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 06:13 on Apr 8, 2018 |
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Apr 8, 2018 06:07
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Sinteres posted:
They should be able to crush the last pocket with conventional means just fine so it does seem deliberately antagonistic. Maybe Assad or someone in his command went rogue but I doubt anything happens without Russia signing off on it so much like deploying a nerve agent in the UK it appears Putin is trying to provoke a confrontation and take it to the next level. I guess the slow burn of sanctions isn't working out for him.
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Apr 8, 2018 06:59
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Bates posted:it appears Putin is trying to provoke a confrontation and take it to the next level. Why would he want to do that? It makes no sense really from a strategic analysis point of view. The exact opposite would make sense for Russian interests; to not provoke a confrontation. This is like pushing Trump and the Europeans back in. You want them out.
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Apr 8, 2018 08:41
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I wonder how many events like this it'll take Britain's socialists to stop writing articles like this https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/presidents-russia-turkey-and-iran-meet-discuss-syrian-war One interesting quote quote:“The situation in Eastern Ghouta has changed radically for the better,” Mr Ryabkov asserted, pointing out that tens of thousands of people have already left the danger zone.
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Apr 8, 2018 09:47
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Volkerball posted:You'd see a lot more small scale sarin attacks if that were the case, rather than these one off massive ones. Also, I believe sarin munitions have binary components that have to be assembled prior to an attack so it's not like they can be mistaken for conventional munitions. The message here isn't to the US or the west. It's to the people of Syria. It fits right in with how the regime has conducted its business for decades. All they know is brutality. The airdropped bombs have the Sarin mixed inside them, according to defectors, and this is reflected in diagrams of the munition and remains recovered from the attack where they were bombed from the air. You have two filling ports for each of the binary chemicals, which are poured inside the bomb, then an internal mixing arm is turned which breaks a dividing wall between the chemicals and allows them to be mixed. The reaction creates a lot of heat, so it's kept under a shower to keep it from overheating. Looking at the initial videos it looks like this may have been a direct hit on a building full of civilians, most the videos showing the many dead appear to be from the same building. Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 10:42 on Apr 8, 2018 |
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Apr 8, 2018 10:40
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Brown Moses posted:The airdropped bombs have the Sarin mixed inside them, according to defectors, and this is reflected in diagrams of the munition and remains recovered from the attack where they were bombed from the air. You have two filling ports for each of the binary chemicals, which are poured inside the bomb, then an internal mixing arm is turned which breaks a dividing wall between the chemicals and allows them to be mixed. The reaction creates a lot of heat, so it's kept under a shower to keep it from overheating. Sounds pretty dangerous for the operators. I wonder if they get specialist training within the normal air force munitions organisation, or if they are a separate arm
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Apr 8, 2018 10:58
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Here's a diagram of the two chemical bombs they use. The top two images are the same bomb, before and after the dividing wall is broken The OPCW-FFM report on the March 30th 2017 Al Lataminah Sarin attack had lots of images of the debris of the bomb, and it matches to one of the two types of bomb, including measurements:  The same design of filling cap was found at the April 4th Khan Sheikhoun attack site, and the OPCW-UN JIM report says it's from a Syrian air dropped chemical bomb, so it appears very likely the same type of bomb was used in both. The irony is the only reason we have the diagram of the bombs which shows there's a strong match between the bomb debris from the Sarin attacks, is because Russia published it as part of their defence of the Syrian government against accusations it was responsible. There's literally no other public source for that diagram, so thanks, Russia.
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Apr 8, 2018 11:04
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Every time Assad gasses his people, I see multiple posts saying "It just doesn't make sense" but neither does machine-gunning down unarmed protesters or bombing bakeries unless you're a bloodthirsty tyrant who doesn't give a poo poo about his people and knows nobody else will lift a finger to stop him. Like we're talking about the guy who literally has a corpse processing yard for political dissidents within view of the balcony of his presidential palace where tens of thousands of victims have been photographed and tagged. What makes you think he's squeamish about gassing people considering he's done it dozens of times before in numerous other situations?
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Apr 8, 2018 14:22
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Trump is threatening a big reprisal, who knows what that will be.
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Apr 8, 2018 14:37
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https://twitter.com/ap/status/982969024219877376?s=21
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Apr 8, 2018 14:41
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geez I wonder why 
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Apr 8, 2018 14:41
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RandomPauI posted:Trump is threatening a big reprisal, who knows what that will be. Literally 1 week ago he was all for pulling all the troops out and to let the locals 'take care of it themselves', who knows (or cares) by this point what he's gonna say in 1 more week.
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Apr 8, 2018 15:03
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Sergg posted:Every time Assad gasses his people, I see multiple posts saying "It just doesn't make sense" but neither does machine-gunning down unarmed protesters or bombing bakeries unless you're a bloodthirsty tyrant who doesn't give a poo poo about his people and knows nobody else will lift a finger to stop him. I don't think people are questioning Assad's willingness to do these things, they're trying to figure out what possible benefit there is for him.
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Apr 8, 2018 15:34
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The video published showing the remains of the bomb used is clearly the same type of modified chlorine cylinder used in other attacks by Syrian government forces: https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/982983430794285058 Looks like it went through the roof of an apartment building into a bedroom close to a stairwell, so it could have spread through the building very quickly, all the way down to the basement, hence the high casualties. Often they land in open spaces so you don't see that level of casualties.
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Apr 8, 2018 15:35
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I’m feeling like a shitbag for my passive support of  Middle East Thunderdome and feel as lost as some thread regulars now.
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Apr 8, 2018 16:15
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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/982966315467116544 https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/982967389028569088 https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/982969547283161090 he is either gonna do another impotent show of force or nothing, or maybe he says gently caress it and has assads brains blown all over a wall by a seal team. trumps dumb rear end in a top hat, so i suspect the first option.
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Apr 8, 2018 16:31
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This could also be used as justification to go after Iran in the name of going after one of Syria's main supporters. It'd be dumb, but, well, Trump.
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Apr 8, 2018 16:52
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/982966315467116544 Is this for real? How can the president of one of the most powerful nations on Earth not know how that red line thing works?
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Apr 8, 2018 16:59
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RandomPauI posted:This could also be used as justification to go after Iran in the name of going after one of Syria's main supporters. It'd be dumb, but, well, Trump. It would be particularly stupid since Iran is a country we helped Saddam attack with chemical weapons. Besides, it's pretty clearly Russia that's enabling the CW poo poo, not Iran. Libluini posted:Is this for real? How can the president of one of the most powerful nations on Earth not know how that red line thing works? Trump also tweeted multiple times at Obama not to attack Syria at the time. https://twitter.com/dandrezner/status/983007027684356097 Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 17:25 on Apr 8, 2018 |
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Apr 8, 2018 17:21
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Libluini posted:Is this for real? How can the president of one of the most powerful nations on Earth not know how that red line thing works? because he is a hypocritical idiot.
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Apr 8, 2018 18:03
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Libluini posted:Is this for real? How can the president of one of the most powerful nations on Earth not know how that red line thing works? Representative democracy in action I think some'd argue.
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Apr 8, 2018 18:06
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RandomPauI posted:This could also be used as justification to go after Iran in the name of going after one of Syria's main supporters. It'd be dumb, but, well, Trump. I think I know just the guy to make this argument to the president. https://twitter.com/AmbJohnBolton/status/982954315387195394
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Apr 8, 2018 18:23
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MiddleOne posted:Representative democracy in action I think some'd argue. I've watched enough American elections to know that is not true, the US is even less democratic then the weird constitutional monarchy Britain is burdened with. If the US one day reforms their strange and arcane presidential elections and then still gets a new Trump into office, I'll agree to this, but fat chance of this happening. 
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Apr 8, 2018 18:35
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MiddleOne posted:Representative democracy in action I think some'd argue. He had less votes 
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Apr 8, 2018 18:44
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Thump! posted:He had less votes First past the post, not even once.
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Apr 8, 2018 18:48
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MiddleOne posted:First past the post, not even once. That wasn't first past the post (which is definitely bad), that was the electoral college
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Apr 8, 2018 19:49
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FourLeaf posted:That wasn't first past the post (which is definitely bad), that was the electoral college The electoral college would be fine if it wasn't built upon the foundation of single-seat districts.
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Apr 8, 2018 19:58
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https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/982998942463025153 Never forget, all that was asked was freedom, human rights and democracy, and the Assadists chose genocide instead.
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Apr 8, 2018 20:19
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FourLeaf posted:That wasn't first past the post (which is definitely bad), that was the electoral college When you have a system made up of 50 different areas (states) where the majority vote wins all the areas influence (e.collage votes), you have a first-past-the-post system. Hate to tell you. E. also hate that Assad won. 5 years going. Obama should have bombed and muredered him and his nazis, just like he wanted. ThisIsJohnWayne fucked around with this message at 20:32 on Apr 8, 2018 |
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Apr 8, 2018 20:25
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ThisIsJohnWayne posted:When you have a system made up of 50 different areas (states) where the majority vote wins all the areas influence (e.collage votes), you have a first-past-the-post system. Hate to tell you. do you seriously not understand that the system which forces us to consider FPTP in 50 different areas in the first place is the electoral college? we indeed have a first past the post system which is bad enough, but if it were simply a nationwide FPTP vote hillary still would have won. however, our electoral college gives massively outsized voting power to states with smaller populations. thus, at the end of the day i'd say the electoral college was the more pressing problem, and wish it could be abolished or least tied to the popular vote. replacing FPTP with even a basic instant runoff voting system nationwide is still a good idea though. MiddleOne posted:The electoral college would be fine if it wasn't built upon the foundation of single-seat districts. i've heard arguments that single-member districts have an advantage because the voters in the district have more of a connection to the individual they elected, but i'm not convinced that's worth the downsides compared to multi-member districts
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Apr 8, 2018 21:23
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Al-Saqr posted:https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/982998942463025153 There's like a Nusra flag waving the the foreground, so like Zahran Alloush they were also asking for the death of all Shias and Alawites?
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Apr 8, 2018 23:40
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Throatwarbler posted:There's like a Nusra flag waving the the foreground, so like Zahran Alloush they were also asking for the death of all Shias and Alawites? You’re a Nazi animal, I’m not going to talk to you.
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Apr 9, 2018 00:31
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https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/983146335279943680 https://twitter.com/ThomasVLinge/status/983148068840398849
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Apr 9, 2018 02:09
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