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There are reports that the regime is firing rockets or artillery into occupied Golan, and the claim is supported by Israeli air raid sirens going off. Israel's launching attacks against the regime too, though it's unclear if they're wholly retaliatory or if they started this round.
Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 22:49 on May 9, 2018 |
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May 9, 2018 22:32
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This seems more serious than usual. Direct retaliation with MLRS strike and possibly stuff still happening. https://twitter.com/AAhronheim/status/994337549475876864 Radio Prune fucked around with this message at 23:21 on May 9, 2018 |
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May 9, 2018 23:19
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hmmmm you're right at first I was dismissive of this as a tit-for-tat but this time has been unusually violent back and forth. we'll see in a few hours what's up if anything at all.
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May 9, 2018 23:49
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I can appreciate the poetry of the netenyahu administration calling everyone in south syria iranian with the same cold cynicism as the assad regime calling all the rebel factions jihadist foreign mercenaries. A literal joke of a political strategy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwvlZWbhWEM&t=6s
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May 9, 2018 23:56
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There are sirens going off in Israeli towns bordering Lebanon now too.
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May 10, 2018 00:31
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Sinteres posted:There are sirens going off in Israeli towns bordering Lebanon now too. Source?
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May 10, 2018 00:35
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Al-Saqr posted:Source? https://twitter.com/el_sarkis/status/994353741347377152
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May 10, 2018 00:35
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https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/994357742604341248 This loving photo. Al-Saqr posted:Source? I've seen a couple unverifieds twitters saying it, but nothing reliable. edit: ^^^^^ alright I guess that's a bit more than hearsay. ded redd fucked around with this message at 00:39 on May 10, 2018 |
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May 10, 2018 00:36
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Office Pig posted:https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/994357742604341248 Yeah I mean russia is a silly fascist state that has strategic interests with Israel and will never do anything other than secure their little fascist puppets and kill their people. They're a bunch of fascist pigs who would crumble at the first sign of actual resistance.
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May 10, 2018 00:40
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I wouldn't believe anything from the IDF. At this point I think they'll be doing Dayan tractor tactics with strikes to provoke Iran to attack, though. This won't be good. They were also claiming the Iranian drone based on the RQ-170 they shot down a month or so ago was armed (probably an explosive for self-destruct. I haven't seen any pics of it after, either). To follow up what I posted awhile ago on sanctions when US pulls out. DC wants to continue to penalize foreign firms. This won't be good, too. All in all, feels like I'm living in the axis powers now.
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May 10, 2018 00:51
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They're still trading missiles, this is nuts.
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May 10, 2018 02:10
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May 10, 2018 02:26
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Sinteres posted:They're still trading missiles, this is nuts. Where are you getting your sources? I'm looking and everything is talking about the events from a few hours ago. I'm looking at sky news arabic now, and you're right it's still happening, if it doesnt stop in the next six hours this could be big news.
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May 10, 2018 02:45
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I'm seeing even typically reasonable left-wing Israelis talking this up as Iran escalating the conflict, but didn't Israel precipitate the current exchange with further unprovoked strikes in Syria? Haven't the IRGC and the Syrian regime, abominable and bloodthirsty as they are, done nothing in response to repeated Israeli strikes until the last few months? I call bullshit when Russia whines about NATO countries building bases to protect the states on Russia's border and Israel making similar complaints, while at the same committing wanton aggression when it suits them, doesn't seem any more valid.
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May 10, 2018 02:46
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Cugel the Clever posted:I'm seeing even typically reasonable left-wing Israelis talking this up as Iran escalating the conflict, I dunno I mean you could tell them that Israels been bombing iranian positions for months now maybe that might be a reason. Unless the Iranians and the syrian regime are uniquely dumb they arent in a good position right now to carry out an extended conflict and shouldnt expect russia to be on their side in any actual confrontation with Israel, not only because russia is just as much friends with Israel as they are with Iran, also russias the only reason assad is still alive how the gently caress does he expect his lovely useless army to fight anything other than civilians and children. Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 02:55 on May 10, 2018 |
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May 10, 2018 02:49
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Cugel the Clever posted:I'm seeing even typically reasonable left-wing Israelis talking this up as Iran escalating the conflict, but didn't Israel precipitate the current exchange with further unprovoked strikes in Syria? Haven't the IRGC and the Syrian regime, abominable and bloodthirsty as they are, done nothing in response to repeated Israeli strikes until the last few months? I don't think Israel's security concerns are invalid, but the 'we can punch you but you can't punch us or we'll say you're the aggressor' thing is obviously bullshit. It's also kind of rich that they want a buffer zone in southern Syria to protect occupied Golan from Iran's reach given that Golan is ostensibly under occupation in the first place to serve as a buffer zone denying Syria advantageous positions from which to attack the core of Israel. If you need buffers for your buffers, at some point you can justify anything. Iran does appear to be in a considerably weaker position than Israel, so I don't see this war ending well for them, but there are still at least two more fronts that could open up to cause problems for Israel if Hezbollah and Hamas decide to kick things off.
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May 10, 2018 02:53
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I don't actually understand the Israeli calculus that they are automatically going to come out ahead in a confrontation with Iran. I'd guess Israel's hope is of furthering local objectives wrt Golan heights and they're banking on the Syrians being too beaten down from the last 5 years to stop them. People don't get just how big and populous Iran is (and how much of their population is military age with military training). Without the US doing the heavy lifting idk what offensive ability Israel would really have against Iran beyond a bunch of bombing and the Iranian ability to retaliate specifically against Israeli aggression has been built up like 2 decades now. If Israel manages to provoke both a Lebanese and Iranian reaction than jfc idk what their hope is other than to drag the US into a shitshow on their side.
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May 10, 2018 03:07
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Herstory Begins Now posted:If Israel manages to provoke both a Lebanese and Iranian reaction than jfc idk what their hope is other than to drag the US into a shitshow on their side. Near as I can tell that is in fact their hope, and its a rational one.
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May 10, 2018 03:09
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Willie Tomg posted:Near as I can tell that is in fact their hope, and its a rational one. There's still a question of, well, if you start a war with Iran you kind of have to invade Iran eventually and who the gently caress is going to do that and how do they actually expect that to go?
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May 10, 2018 03:11
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Willie Tomg posted:Near as I can tell that is in fact their hope, and its a rational one. yeah, assads army is tired from all the civilians they had to genocide, Iran isnt 100% fortified in Syria yet, the russians sure as gently caress arent going to help either one of those guys, and the arab world isnt going to support assad at all after what he did, so gently caress it, they can strike now and snatch an easy victory and give Iran a bloody nose that will deepen the humiliation the iranians recieve after the death of their nuclear agreement. Herstory Begins Now posted:There's still a question of, well, if you start a war with Iran you kind of have to invade Iran eventually and who the gently caress is going to do that and how do they actually expect that to go? they dont need to invade Iran, humiliating them and forcing them out of syria through the russians will do instead.
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May 10, 2018 03:12
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Al-Saqr posted:yeah, assads army is tired from all the civilians they had to genocide, Iran isnt 100% fortified in Syria yet, the russians sure as gently caress arent going to help either one of those guys, and the arab world isnt going to support assad at all after what he did, so gently caress it, they can strike now and snatch an easy victory and give Iran a bloody nose that will deepen the humiliation the iranians recieve after the death of their nuclear agreement. It depends on the scope of the conflict that they're trying to start. If their only goal is to seize Golan then no they don't. If their goal extends anywhere beyond that then who really knows what will happen.
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May 10, 2018 03:15
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Herstory Begins Now posted:There's still a question of, well, if you start a war with Iran you kind of have to invade Iran eventually and who the gently caress is going to do that and how do they actually expect that to go? the USA and > How long will it take to capture Tehran? 2 days > Will the Ayatollahs be killed? Yes > Total Iranian civillian casualties: 500 dead > Total military casualties Iran: 3000 dead > Total military casualties U.S.: 15 dead > Will the Iranian army regulars hold the lines? No > Will the IRGC fight to the end? No > Will chem/bio weapons be used on invading troops?: Yes > Will Rouhani launch attacks on the Kurds? Yes > Will Rouhani launch attacks on Israel? No > -If yes; will Isreal retaliate harshly? Yes > Will Rouhani sacrifice Tehran (gas/nuke it)? No > Will the Kurds make a grab for independence? Yes > Will Iran do anything silly like try for land? Yes > Will Rouhani burn the oil fields? Yes > How long will the US be occupying Iran? ~15 years > Will the Iran war catalyze increased terrorism in America?No > In the long run, will this war be good or bad for the world? Good Respectively.
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May 10, 2018 03:19
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Herstory Begins Now posted:I don't actually understand the Israeli calculus that they are automatically going to come out ahead in a confrontation with Iran. I'd guess Israel's hope is of furthering local objectives wrt Golan heights and they're banking on the Syrians being too beaten down from the last 5 years to stop them. People don't get just how big and populous Iran is (and how much of their population is military age with military training). Without the US doing the heavy lifting idk what offensive ability Israel would really have against Iran beyond a bunch of bombing and the Iranian ability to retaliate specifically against Israeli aggression has been built up like 2 decades now. Iran has a big army, but good luck projecting it through multiple countries to get at Israel, especially when the US is heavily involved in both of those countries. Yeah, they can probably make Iraq burst into flames with anti-American sentiment if we openly side with Israel against them, but we're not going to lose the ability to take out Iranian convoys any time soon regardless, and Israel's pretty capable of taking them out on their own anyway. Maybe Iran has some missiles they can lob at Israel these days, but lobbing big missiles into Israeli population centers seems like a very stupid idea.
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May 10, 2018 03:19
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Sinteres posted:Iran has a big army, but good luck projecting it through multiple countries to get at Israel, especially when the US is heavily involved in both of those countries. Yeah, they can probably make Iraq burst into flames with anti-American sentiment if we openly side with Israel against them, but we're not going to lose the ability to take out Iranian convoys any time soon regardless, and Israel's pretty capable of taking them out on their own anyway. Maybe Iran has some missiles they can lob at Israel these days, but lobbing big missiles into Israeli population centers seems like a very stupid idea. Between Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon there are an absolute fuckton of missiles to be fired at Israel. More than enough to cause real damage to Israel. Iran is one of the chief developers of missiles tech period and has spent decades developing and hardening their missile capabilities against potential Israeli attack. To shut down that retaliatory ability some actual on the ground action would be necessary. Both to shut down Iranian air defense or their missile capabilities you'd need an order of magnitude more force than it took to shutdown Iraq. Saddam in 2002 was effectively disarmed after the decade of sanctions (and the Iraq sanctions were far, far more restrictive than the Iranian sanctions) compared to 2018 Iran. Iran doesn't have to or have any reason to put troops in Israel. They 100% have the ability to apply pressure to Israel. Iron dome is 1) only so good and 2) has not really been tested on a meaningful scale against actual missile tech. Similarly putting any troops on the ground in Iran would be a complete and total shitshow on almost every level. There's zero chance any American or Israeli soldiers would be treated as liberators for even a single second outside of, some extreme minority areas and even then it's not something you'd want to bank on. Iran has 10 times the population of Israel, twice the population of Iraq, and is a lot more unified against US or Israeli aggression that Iraq was. There's a tendency for people to think 'well Iran would go mostly like how Iraq did' and it's a complete fallacy as the two are almost polar opposites. TBH Iran's advantage in this is that they can escalate because what is Israel or the US really going to do militarily? there are hawks in power in both countries, but I highly doubt the will to start a complete shitshow of a war with Iran is really there. The US military is well aware that an actual confrontation with Iran (aside from basically starting a massive regional war) would be a completely different beast than the Iraq invasion. Bolton might want war, but the US can't really afford that scale of conflict. Iran shooting back is basically calling that bluff. The whole situation is really loving weird honestly. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 04:12 on May 10, 2018 |
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May 10, 2018 04:09
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how about we not waste time speculating on scenarios we have no idea about at all about, if it happens then we can judge as events transpire.
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May 10, 2018 04:12
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The primary purpose of Israeli intervention in Syria over the last five years has been to contain the Iranian capability to "cause real damage to Israel." Presumably if the current spat were to intensify, Israel would maintain the same objectives. That is I believe Israel would act solely to destroy Iranian and Hezbollah positions and missile caches on their northern border. I don't seen any reason to speculate about a conflict that would extend to Iranian borders at this time, which has not been threatened by anyone that I know of. Israel has blustered in the past about striking inside Iran, but never pulled the trigger. Since the implementation of the nuclear accord they have had even less reason and diplomatic space make such a strike and I would be surprised if they were to do so in the near future.
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May 10, 2018 04:27
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Herstory Begins Now posted:I don't actually understand the Israeli calculus that they are automatically going to come out ahead in a confrontation with Iran. I'd guess Israel's hope is of furthering local objectives wrt Golan heights and they're banking on the Syrians being too beaten down from the last 5 years to stop them. People don't get just how big and populous Iran is (and how much of their population is military age with military training). Without the US doing the heavy lifting idk what offensive ability Israel would really have against Iran beyond a bunch of bombing and the Iranian ability to retaliate specifically against Israeli aggression has been built up like 2 decades now. Israel's view is that even if their war against Iran goes terribly, they can still launch their own nukes and obliterate Iran's major cities and hell, also some cities in other countries they don't like and consider themselves to have won anyway. Israel clearly barely cares about outside perceptions anymore, so I really wouldn't put it past them to do such a thing.
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May 10, 2018 04:38
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https://twitter.com/Elizrael/status/994410961833480192
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May 10, 2018 04:59
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Infrastructure week is over?
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May 10, 2018 12:24
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The US, Germany and the UK are condemning Iran for attacking Israel, and even Bahrain is saying Israel has a right to defend itself. Russia pretty much stuck to saying both sides should cool it, so Iran's super isolated here.
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May 10, 2018 12:45
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Sinteres posted:The US, Germany and the UK are condemning Iran for attacking Israel, and even Bahrain is saying Israel has a right to defend itself. Russia pretty much stuck to saying both sides should cool it, so Iran's super isolated here. Btw, Bahrain is reliant on SA so that isn't really notable.
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May 10, 2018 12:56
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Ardennes posted:Btw, Bahrain is reliant on SA so that isn't really notable. I know the GCC is cooperating with Israel these days, but saying so publicly still seems novel. Avigdor Liberman's calling on the Gulf States to come out of the closet and form an axis of moderate states in the region, which seems like two phrases he probably should have avoided.
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May 10, 2018 13:03
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Ardennes posted:Btw, Bahrain is reliant on SA so that isn't really notable. It's still notable, but not huge. Bahrain is heavily aligned with KSA and the GCC (minus Qatar on timeout), but it has a majority Shia population with historic ties to Iran. Bahrain could have simply said nothing at all. Choosing to say something is also choosing to send a message to its Shia population.
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May 10, 2018 13:04
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mlmp08 posted:It's still notable, but not huge. Bahrain is heavily aligned with KSA and the GCC (minus Qatar on timeout), but it has a majority Shia population with historic ties to Iran. Bahrain could have simply said nothing at all. Choosing to say something is also choosing to send a message to its Shia population. Bahrain is in the orbit of the SA-Israeli alliance. The monarchy itself has been hostile to the Shia population for quite a while, and more recently, Bahrain has been helping promote Trump's dead-letter peace plan. It is just "taking the veil" off the situation to a higher degree. Also, it is clear the Russians are going to play both sides. If anything the end of the Iran deal helps the Kremlin in two ways: making Iran more reliant on Russia and boosting oil prices. The Kremlin is almost certainly happy to sell weapons to the Iranians without actually getting physically involved (and why should they unless Assad actually starts to crack...but it seems like the regime is in a stable position). Btw, the Chinese are implicitly involved in the situation and almost certainly are not going to let the Iranians go under. They will happily buy any surplus oil and probably throw some loans over to the Iranians if they need they beyond infrastructure projects. Iran is a key part of belt and road, they aren't going to be allowed to go under.
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May 10, 2018 13:16
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Ardennes posted:Bahrain is in the orbit of the SA-Israeli alliance. The monarchy itself has been hostile to the Shia population for quite a while, and more recently, Bahrain has been helping promote Trump's dead-letter peace plan. It is just "taking the veil" off the situation to a higher degree. Hence why it's notable.
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May 10, 2018 13:18
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mlmp08 posted:Hence why it's notable. I think it is more gradual than that, it is just another brick in the wall.
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May 10, 2018 13:23
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https://twitter.com/THE_47th/status/994622481737682944 Wouldn't want to be that one guy who runs away and then back to the vehicle.
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May 10, 2018 18:05
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Radio Prune posted:https://twitter.com/THE_47th/status/994622481737682944 wow, this is really gonna hurt the "glorious pantsir" narrative
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May 10, 2018 19:05
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hot take: it probably would have shot that missile down if they had turned it on.
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May 10, 2018 22:11
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Stairmaster posted:hot take: it probably would have shot that missile down if they had turned it on. That seems to be the usual idiot line - darned Ayrabs just didn't hit the glorious wunderwaffe's ON switch!
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May 10, 2018 22:37
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