|
Volkerball posted:You know those 5 seats made a huge difference to the point we couldn't even draw conclusions without knowing about them, but also we don't know anything yet because we don't know how the coalitions will shake out. One of these things is true at least. And it's not mutually exclusive with Sadr massively overperforming and gaining a lot of influence in Iraq politics as a result of this election. And learn numbers, fool. 25 is the same as 25 so there aren't any losses for Maliki over what was initially reported, and 54-47 isn't 2, so Sadr's lead over Amiri is more than that. 5 seats can make a difference when we are now talking about essentially two balanced groups between the two, 47 + 26 (yes 26) = 73 and 54 + 19 (al-Hakim) = 73 with Abadi's group being more of a king-maker than anything. Sadr outperformed, fine, but that isn't quite the same as overturning the Iraqi political system. If anything his success might be from pulling votes from Al-Hakim and some of the smaller religious Shia parties (and I guess the communists did better than expected). quote:The message seems to be pretty blatantly "everyone but hashd and Maliki, get on board." Like I said, the numbers are tight, but if it happens it'd be such an amazing moment for Iraq. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 14:03 on May 19, 2018 |
#
?
May 19, 2018 13:59
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 14:32 |
|
|
Ardennes posted:5 seats can make a difference when we are now talking about essentially two balanced groups between the two, 47 + 26 (yes 26) = 73 and 54 + 19 (al-Hakim) = 73 with Abadi's group being more of a king-maker than anything. It'll take 165 to form the coalition, so that doesn't say much of anything. Until we see how the smaller factions line up it's impossible to tell. I wouldn't argue that 5 seats CAN make a difference, but you said they WILL make a difference. Your exact words were that they changed the dynamic completely. Total bullshit, which is why we are now moving the goalposts. quote:Sadr outperformed, fine, but that isn't quite the same as overturning the Iraqi political system. If anything his success might be from pulling votes from Al-Hakim and some of the smaller religious Shia parties (and I guess the communists did better than expected). I never said it overturned the Iraqi political system. It certainly changes a lot though. I've already explained why in all those posts when I was weaving my web of neocon lies. And it's pretty obvious it wasn't about him gaining votes, but about everyone else losing votes to the boycott movement. As for the communists, I'm not sure how well ICP fared, but the articles discussing them seemed like they just couldn't miss out on a headline like Sadr allying with communists, because those all came thick and really early. I doubt they played much of a role, but who knows. Edit: That post was accurate, and still is. Whether or not he will be successful remains to be seen, but it's not exactly a secret he is pushing for a coalition without Maliki and Amiri. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 14:24 on May 19, 2018 |
|
#
?
May 19, 2018 14:18
|
|
|
Volkerball posted:It'll take 165 to form the coalition, so that doesn't say much of anything. Until we see how the smaller factions line up it's impossible to tell. I wouldn't argue that 5 seats CAN make a difference, but you said they WILL make a difference. Your exact words were that they changed the dynamic completely. Total bullshit, which is why we are now moving the goalposts. I said it changed the "entire dynamic" which is that Sadr and his allies had an edge when in reality, they don't. If anything the two largest groups are balanced at the moment. (This is in response to a litany of escalating excited posts.) and it has made a difference in coalition building. Also I think the whole thing about Sadr being able to form his own coalition is real sketchy would require Abadi to go with it since otherwise Sadr has to essentially recruit from across the Iraqi political spectrum. It doesn't make sense. While this would "completely change the political dynamic", it would also be a bizarre upset. (The change in the vote totals makes significantly less likely than it was since Abadi has even less of a reason to side with Sadr.) Ardennes fucked around with this message at 15:14 on May 19, 2018 |
|
#
?
May 19, 2018 15:00
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:I said it changed the "entire dynamic" which is that Sadr and his allies had an edge when in reality, they don't. If anything the two largest groups are balanced at the moment. (This is in response to a litany of escalating excited posts.) and it has made a difference in coalition building. I'm not going to waste any more time on this discussion, but for the sake of adding something interesting for everyone who has suffered through it, there's been no indication Amiri would back Abadi for prime minister. Abadi accused Amiri of being behind the murder of a security official during his campaign, and Maliki and Amiri both hate him. In an Abadi/Maliki/Amiri coalition, Abadi wouldn't be at the top of it. Sadr on the other hand will likely back Abadi for PM if Abadi signs up and agrees to drop the Dawa party label and govern as an independent. At the same time, this would allow Abadi to not ostracize the many Sunni voters in Nineveh who kept him so close to Amiri. Those two combined probably get enough support from smaller Sunni factions to break 165. It might be the only way for a coalition to form and I expect it's the result we'll see.
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2018 19:51
|
|
|
Charliegrs posted:I'm guessing this was the Israelis blowing up more Iranian weapons? Some group no-one ever heard of claimed responsibility, but in a surprise twist, actually provided photographs from inside the base: https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/997833977544179713
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2018 22:31
|
|
|
A glimpse of the future in Syria as it transitions to asymmetric warfare I suppose.
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2018 23:52
|
|
|
Brown Moses posted:Some group no-one ever heard of claimed responsibility, but in a surprise twist, actually provided photographs from inside the base: Well I've heard of Saraya al-Jihad. But they're Shia and Iraqi based, so that would be a bit odd.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2018 01:01
|
|
|
Brown Moses posted:Some group no-one ever heard of claimed responsibility, but in a surprise twist, actually provided photographs from inside the base: Pictures inside the base which could come from any source. which is intriguing. which actor in this theater would need to disguise their clandestine actions as Militant islamists הַמוֹסָד WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 04:31 on May 20, 2018 |
|
#
?
May 20, 2018 04:27
|
|
|
I don't think they typically give terrorist groups guided tours through Air Force bases. Maybe some Alawite AF colonel flicked his lit cigarette into an arms depot and is now desperately making up Twitter posts for a non-existent group.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2018 04:43
|
|
|
Sergg posted:I don't think they typically give terrorist groups guided tours through Air Force bases. Maybe some Alawite AF colonel flicked his lit cigarette into an arms depot and is now desperately making up Twitter posts for a non-existent group.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2018 20:14
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/iyad_elbaghdadi/status/997604763863801857
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2018 06:19
|
|
|
Man it's almost like someone from this thread called this to a loving t.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2018 06:29
|
|
|
But Tom Friedman and all the newspapers and a special magazine edition and Donald Trump all praised MBS as a reformer! How could so many people be fooled?
RandomPauI fucked around with this message at 09:32 on May 21, 2018 |
|
#
?
May 21, 2018 09:04
|
|
RandomPauI posted:But Tom Friedman and all the newspapers and a special magazine edition and Donald Trump all praised MBS as a reformer! How could so many people be fooled? He is a reformer - that doesn't mean that he is a radical reformer who will turn KSA into a liberal democracy on the spot.
|
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2018 09:13
|
|
|
Herstory Begins Now posted:Man it's almost like
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2018 09:18
|
|
|
GaussianCopula posted:He is a reformer - that doesn't mean that he is a radical reformer who will turn KSA into a liberal democracy on the spot. I'm sorry, I meant my question to come across as sarcastic.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2018 09:31
|
|
|
GaussianCopula posted:He is a reformer - that doesn't mean that he is a radical reformer who will turn KSA into a liberal democracy on the spot. It's just window-dressing. He's setting the country up for a stellar transition from a nepotistic shithole to a nepotistic shithole with a larger amount of foreign investors. Didnt he announce some pipe-dream megacity with its own set of laws not "tied down by customs and tradition"? This guy is a sham.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2018 10:07
|
|
so that means I can be a cheapskate and post about posting instead of having some wit or spending any more on comedy avs for people. Which I'm also incapable of. Comedy.
|
Lol, Neom. Or is it NEOM? What a stupid idea. At least Masdar City was basically already in a major city already. And failed spectacularly.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2018 10:54
|
|
|
There's a lot of these megacities going on (and they always fail but that doesn't stop new ones from being built) because it's basically a way to maintain the construction bubble going on. Kind of like why Spain had a ton of useless airports that never saw any airplane.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2018 12:57
|
|
|
Lol I knew it, we're headed for a mixture of cheap consumer capitalism in the UAE mixed with the iron fisted police state of Egypt. What they've done with this is essentially signal that even the neutral voices and people who were trying to push for rights while still being pro-government is not going to be tolerated at all, it's either sing and dance for the regime or go straight to jail, no middle ground, this also has a very big chilling effect on social media people and youtube people who gained a large following in the last few years, the wife of one of the people arrested is the biggest social media and general stand up comedian in the country named Fahad al Buteiri, they're not even willing to accept neutrality anymore. Living in hell is awesome.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2018 13:18
|
|
|
Yeah it's such a transparent 'gently caress you rights are from the generosity of your king, not because you deserve them as humans' message.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2018 13:29
|
|
|
if this doesnt signal that a conflict is absolutely on the way, then I dont know what does:- -- US vows 'strongest sanctions in history' on Iran -- http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44200621
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2018 15:58
|
|
|
Yknow I was saying a little while back that the idea that the Iraq invasion would be a suitable model for an invasion of Iran was flawed because Iraq was depleted by a decade of extremely rigid sanctions on a level that Iran has never even come close to. So much for that if Bolton gets his way.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2018 16:56
|
|
|
Herstory Begins Now posted:Yknow I was saying a little while back that the idea that the Iraq invasion would be a suitable model for an invasion of Iran was flawed because Iraq was depleted by a decade of extremely rigid sanctions on a level that Iran has never even come close to. Iraq was never able to rearm and equip its armed forces following the beating they took in the Gulf War followed by a decade of sanctions. No matter what a war with Iran will give the US a bloody nose.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2018 17:24
|
|
|
also, the rest of the world will go /batshit/ if the us invades iran on behalf of saudi arabia and israel, particularly following this series of fairly blatant provocations like, 2003 is going to look tame and the anti-war left will see a legit renaissance all over europe
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2018 17:34
|
|
|
I'm sure there'll be some unspecified Iranian provocation that'll get blamed as the reason for a wardec and that'll get enough morons chanting for a support of an invasion. It's pretty much Trump's only method of political survival, I think. Without a war with someone (and by hiring Bolton and Pompeo blustering loud and clear, Iran is pretty certainly going to be that 'someone'), his bigly ego will just keep getting poked at for the next 3 years until his unceremonious departure. And that just won't do! Instead I'm fairly certain he'll think a nice war dec in a year or two's time during election period is a good idea and oughta do it to keep his cancer going for at least 4 more years. CrazyLoon fucked around with this message at 17:49 on May 21, 2018 |
|
#
?
May 21, 2018 17:47
|
|
|
I've been out of the loop on this thread for a long while, but a map posted in the politically-loaded maps thread made me wonder: What are the prospects for Rojava if/when the rebellion is taken down by the government? Is it expected that the government then move against them, or will there be some kind of negotiated autonomy?
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2018 17:49
|
|
|
Golbez posted:I've been out of the loop on this thread for a long while, but a map posted in the politically-loaded maps thread made me wonder: What are the prospects for Rojava if/when the rebellion is taken down by the government? Is it expected that the government then move against them, or will there be some kind of negotiated autonomy? This thread mostly figures Assad will move against them. Honestly is really hard to say at this point. Russia is heavily involved in negotiations, and Turkey is occupying a few parts of Syria right now. So there's not really a straightforward path to ending the rebellion. I expect Rojava to live in a sort of autonomous limbo for some time, say 10 years. Eventually someone is going to move in and crush them.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2018 18:21
|
|
|
Darkman Fanpage posted:Iraq was never able to rearm and equip its armed forces following the beating they took in the Gulf War followed by a decade of sanctions. No matter what a war with Iran will give the US a bloody nose. I'd agree in the short term, but the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel are all clearly making long term plans and 5-10 years of crushing sanctions would do a ridiculous amount to sap Iran's ability to resist.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2018 20:46
|
|
|
Al-Saqr posted:if this doesnt signal that a conflict is absolutely on the way, then I dont know what does:- The grain of salt that I take with this is that this dumbass administration only possesses two types of adjectives for describing things: The Worst Ever The Best Ever It's always one extreme or the other. So there's a decent chance they'll talk hard and deliver a sad little fart.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2018 20:51
|
|
|
Herstory Begins Now posted:I'd agree in the short term, but the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel are all clearly making long term plans and 5-10 years of crushing sanctions would do a ridiculous amount to sap Iran's ability to resist. I got to say, Trump, Bibi, and MBS: none of these 3 seems like long term planners. Trump is Trump, Bibi wants a distraction from legal troubles, and MBS rushes headlong into everything.
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2018 22:05
|
|
|
Bernard Lewis died. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/21/obituaries/bernard-lewis-islam-scholar-dies.html
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2018 22:43
|
|
|
Rust Martialis posted:Bernard Lewis died. Eat poo poo and rot in hell, bernard, you loving racist piece of poo poo. also more saudi women get arrested:- https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/may/21/further-arrests-saudi-arabia-womens-rights-activists-driving-ban?CMP=twt_gu
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2018 22:48
|
|
|
rest in piss, lewis
|
|
#
?
May 21, 2018 23:56
|
|
|
Count Roland posted:I got to say, Trump, Bibi, and MBS: none of these 3 seems like long term planners. Trump is Trump, Bibi wants a distraction from legal troubles, and MBS rushes headlong into everything. Trump and Bibi are both extensions of a policy regime and political movements that existed before and will exist long after they are gone. SA meanwhile has been on a very clear track for most of the last decade where an eventual conflict with Iran is expected and being actively prepared forand there's zero reason to think that MBS is going to suddenly change that. If anything all evidence suggests a strengthening of that intention.
|
|
#
?
May 22, 2018 00:53
|
|
|
Al-Saqr posted:also more saudi women get arrested:- Toplowtech fucked around with this message at 09:37 on May 22, 2018 |
|
#
?
May 22, 2018 09:33
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/CombatChris1/status/999174486619439104?s=20
|
|
#
?
May 23, 2018 09:26
|
|
|
Good piece with all the developments in Iraq since the election. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/05/iraq-election-abadi-muqtada-sadr-iran.html
|
|
#
?
May 23, 2018 21:19
|
|
|
So yeah. Turkish Lira is having a terrible day. Anybody familiar with/can talk usefully about the Turkish economy? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-21/-god-help-turkey-says-brokerage-as-lira-goes-into-meltdown
|
|
#
?
May 23, 2018 21:48
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 14:32 |
|
|
Spacewolf posted:So yeah. Turkish Lira is having a terrible day. Anybody familiar with/can talk usefully about the Turkish economy? Trying to build and maintain a neo-colonial empire is like HARD man.
|
|
#
?
May 23, 2018 22:13
|
|
