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Koramei
Nov 11, 2011

I have three regrets
The first is to be born in Joseon.
japan, well known as family in korean affairs

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Vladimir Putin
Mar 17, 2007

by R. Guyovich

Koramei posted:

japan, well known as family in korean affairs

I want to remind you that this is 2018

A Typical Goon
Feb 25, 2011

Vladimir Putin posted:

I want to remind you that this is 2018

It’s 2018 and Koreans still loving hate Japan

Grapplejack
Nov 27, 2007

If anything Abe is probably over the moon with this, he's been trying to get rid of the SDF and have an actual armed forces again and Trump + NK are more than likely enough to get him his wish.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

A Typical Goon posted:

It’s 2018 and Koreans still loving hate Japan
It's 2018 and Japan and South Korea do $70+ billion of trade annually.

Koramei
Nov 11, 2011

I have three regrets
The first is to be born in Joseon.
Oh poo poo, I didn't realize China and the US were family now, I guess this changes a lot.

mystes
May 31, 2006

Grapplejack posted:

If anything Abe is probably over the moon with this, he's been trying to get rid of the SDF and have an actual armed forces again and Trump + NK are more than likely enough to get him his wish.
Abe has to publicly support the US's efforts, but there's a lot of concern that Abe is out of the loop in the current negotiations and that any deal that Trump makes won't be beneficial to Japan. For example, if the US ends up easing sanctions on North Korea, that will likely reduce Japan's leverage to negotiate on the abduction issue, which is really important to Japan.

Also, an actual deal between the US and North Korea that reduces tensions might make revising Article 9 of the constitution seem like less of a pressing issue, although there are still other factors like incursions by Chinese vessels and China's artificial islands in the South China Sea.

Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

mystes posted:

This is just dumb. How is trying to resolve the abduction issue a "hard-line agenda"?

quote:

In July 2014, Pyongyang set up a panel to reopen an investigation in the abduction of Japanese nationals by North Korean agents, in exchange for Japan easing sanctions on the country.

But Japan reimposed the sanctions after a series of nuclear and ballistic missile tests by North Korea, which resulted in Pyongyang disbanding the investigation panel in February 2016.

A move which drew rebukes from the victim's families. Just lol if you think Abe cares about abductions. He's just a hardliner using it as an excuse to derail talks. Also incredibly glib given he personally denies Japan's own mass abductions and sex slavery system in colonial Korea

Red and Black fucked around with this message at 17:34 on May 30, 2018

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

Rent-A-Cop posted:

It's 2018 and Japan and South Korea do $70+ billion of trade annually.

No dude that's not the same. We all trade with lots of people we don't like.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Chomskyan posted:

A move which drew rebukes from the victim's families. Just lol if you think Abe cares about abductions. He's just a hardliner using it as an excuse to derail talks. Also incredibly glib given he personally denies Japan's own mass abductions and sex slavery system in colonial Korea
What the gently caress were the North Koreans doing for 2 years to "investigate" kidnappings that they did?

mystes
May 31, 2006

Chomskyan posted:

A move which drew rebukes from the victim's family's. Just lol if you think Abe cares about abductions. He's just a hardliner using it as an excuse to derail talks. Also incredibly glib given he personally denies Japan's own mass abductions and sex slavery system in colonial Korea
The abductions are a huge loving deal in Japan and Abe has to care as PM, regardless of what he thinks personally. Japan ended up reinstating the sanctions last time because it finally became 100% clear even to the families of the victims (who say this as their last chance for some sort of resolution) that North Korea wasn't actually doing anything, but the fact that the Japanese government had to keep pretending against all evidence for 2 years that they actually believed there was a chance that North Korea was going to report on what happened to the abductees just shows what an important issue this is.

Edit:

quote:

What the gently caress were the North Koreans doing for 2 years to "investigate" kidnappings that they did?
Doing absolutely nothing while saying,"Oh yeah we're really working hard on that. Just wait a little longer" and enjoying the fact that the sanctions had been eased. In reality North Korea already knows what happened to all of them, so Japan shouldn't have agreed to wait for them to "investigate" in the first place. I think the Japanese government realized this but didn't think it was politically feasible to state this publicly.

mystes fucked around with this message at 17:44 on May 30, 2018

Vladimir Putin
Mar 17, 2007

by R. Guyovich

sexpig by night posted:

No dude that's not the same. We all trade with lots of people we don't like.

Do they have a military intelligence sharing pact though ?!?!?!?!?

And I’m sorry but all this ‘blah hates blah’ is so tattle tale 3rd grade. Question is: are SK and JP strategic interests aligned? If so, why does NK want to separate them?

NK hates JP isn’t a valid answer because unless you’re Donald Trump you don’t conduct foreign policy on personal animosities.

Rent-A-Cop
Oct 15, 2004

I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Vladimir Putin posted:

NK hates JP isn’t a valid answer because unless you’re Donald Trump you don’t conduct foreign policy on personal animosities.
Some of history's best and yoogest wars only happened because the leader of one or more of the belligerents was a gigantic pissbaby.

That said, yeah "The Korean race has always been at war with Even-Farther-East Asia!" is dumb.

Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

Frankly, North Korea could just as easily demand a full accounting of all their citizens who were abducted, tortured, raped, and murdered by Japan, prior to denuclearization, and it would be every bit as legitimate. But that is an issue entirely separate from peace talks and denuclearization, and would basically only serve to torpedo the talks, which is exactly the point Shorrock is making.

mystes
May 31, 2006

Chomskyan posted:

Frankly, North Korea could just as easily demand a full accounting of all their citizens who were abducted, tortured, raped, and murdered by Japan, prior to denuclearization, and it would be every bit as legitimate.
You're literally saying there's no difference between living Japanese citizens being captives in North Korea right now and people having been abducted or killed by Japan during World War II. By this logic, the US shouldn't have bothered asking North Korea to release the three US citizens it was holding as prisoners because hey the US has previously killed people during its history.

quote:

But that is an issue entirely separate from peace talks and denuclearization, and would basically only serve to torpedo the talks, which is exactly the point Shorrock is making.
This request would be much easier for North Korea to comply with than denuclearization, and the US has previously been understanding when Japan has eased sanctions on North Korea purely based on this issue. If the US gave a poo poo what Japan thought, it would be very, very easy to include this as well and there's absolutely no reason to think it would torpedo the talks. It's dumb for the US to ignore this, because it's sending a message that it will throw japan under the bus if it can get a deal that's beneficial to its own interests.

Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

What evidence is there that there are Japanese abductees, alive, in North Korea right now?

Koramei
Nov 11, 2011

I have three regrets
The first is to be born in Joseon.

mystes posted:

You're literally saying there's no difference between living Japanese citizens being captives in North Korea right now and people having been abducted or killed by Japan during World War II.

There are more former comfort women still alive than there were ever Japanese abductees in total. They're both living issues; I don't want to take anything away from the abductions because they're obviously awful too, but the comfort women stuff is not "in the past" and it's half the issue that people are trying to frame it that way.

mystes
May 31, 2006

Chomskyan posted:

What evidence is there that there are Japanese abductees, alive, in North Korea right now?
What evidence is there that they aren't? Admittedly a lot of the people who are known to be abducted would be pretty old now, but there are some who would likely normally still be alive and there's no reason to think that they aren't except that North Korea says so. Or perhaps you would rather take North Korea's word for it if it fits with your narrative about Japan?

Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

No, but I don't take highly politicized accusations made by right-wing ghouls at face value. At least not without evidence, as you seem to be conceding you are.

mystes
May 31, 2006

Chomskyan posted:

No, but I don't take highly politicized accusations made by right-wing ghouls at face value. At least not without evidence, as you seem to be conceding you are.
Calling it a "highly politicized accusation" is just weird. It's known that North Korea abducted the people, it's just not known for sure whether they're alive or not. Until it's proven that they're dead, it's reasonable to act under the assumption that they could still be alive. If they're really dead, North Korea could at least provide some sort of evidence. And it's the families of the people who were abducted who are asking this. Acting like it's some unreasonable accusation just so you can dismiss the issue is really unreasonable, frankly.

If North Korea had claimed that the three US citizens it was holding as prisoners were dead would you say the same thing? That it was a "highly politicized accusation" that couldn't be accepted without proof that they were still alive even though obviously there would be no way the US could prove that? And that therefore the US shouldn't torpedo the talks by asking for evidence that they were dead?

Edit: I shouldn't have responded to the comparison with the comfort women issue, because that's totally irrelevant anyway. The comfort women issue is obviously an issue, and if it turns out that all the abductees really are already dead then sure whatever the comfort women issue is a bigger issue if you want to have some sort of abductee numbers pissing contest. However, as long as it's possible that there are Japanese citizens who are still being held captive in North Korea, the Japanese government is obviously going to be in a hurry to try to resolve the situation. This isn't a statement that the abduction issue is the most important issue in the whole world, it's just a fact that it's a priority to the Japanese government, and Japan is supposed to be an ally of the US.

mystes fucked around with this message at 19:47 on May 30, 2018

CAPS LOCK BROKEN
Feb 1, 2006

by Fluffdaddy

mystes posted:

What evidence is there that they aren't?

Hahah literally prove me wrong.

mystes
May 31, 2006

Peven Stan posted:

Hahah literally prove me wrong.
So when North Korea says "They're dead. Prove me wrong" that is totally reasonable but when Japan says the opposite suddenly that's totally unreasonable?

Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

https://twitter.com/YonhapNews/status/1002226284162760704

https://twitter.com/YonhapNews/status/1002251419804618753

https://twitter.com/johncarlbaker/status/1002196318314516486

https://twitter.com/YonhapNews/status/1002144368604528641

Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

https://twitter.com/chadocl/status/1002499821612044288

https://twitter.com/annafifield/status/1002684151177211904

https://twitter.com/Thoton/status/1002755714962427904

https://twitter.com/joshrogin/status/1002736638118596608

https://twitter.com/JChengWSJ/status/1002736997813768192

https://twitter.com/JChengWSJ/status/1002746244639289344

https://twitter.com/JChengWSJ/status/1002745767512031232

https://twitter.com/JChengWSJ/status/1002745518773002240

https://twitter.com/chosonexchange/status/1002753047628374016

https://twitter.com/TimothyS/status/1002909202325626880

https://twitter.com/kpolicyO/status/1002747895462924288

Red and Black fucked around with this message at 16:31 on Jun 2, 2018

whatever7
Jul 26, 2001

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
Japan and US sanction don't mean diddly squat now that NK has made deal with China. SK talk is icing on the cake.

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

no ring

Red Dad Redemption
Sep 29, 2007


:five:

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

whatever7 posted:

Japan and US sanction don't mean diddly squat now that NK has made deal with China. SK talk is icing on the cake.

That said, pulling SK closer into a more neutral position (they are sounding real dovish at the moment), would certainly be a pretty tremendous victory for China in particular and if anything was worth subsidizing North Korea on its for.

Also, I don't think Japan pushing a hard-line position is really smart, everyone knows that there is already tension between SK and Japan and pushing a hard-line position is if anything only to push Seoul further away. Also, what is Abe's long-plan here besides relying on the US?

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

Ardennes posted:

That said, pulling SK closer into a more neutral position (they are sounding real dovish at the moment), would certainly be a pretty tremendous victory for China in particular and if anything was worth subsidizing North Korea on its for.

Also, I don't think Japan pushing a hard-line position is really smart, everyone knows that there is already tension between SK and Japan and pushing a hard-line position is if anything only to push Seoul further away. Also, what is Abe's long-plan here besides relying on the US?

Abe is extremely right wing regarding Korea and I really doubt has a deeper plan than 'rely on US to back him up' because he probably knows it's a safe bet.

Vladimir Putin
Mar 17, 2007

by R. Guyovich

Ardennes posted:

That said, pulling SK closer into a more neutral position (they are sounding real dovish at the moment), would certainly be a pretty tremendous victory for China in particular and if anything was worth subsidizing North Korea on its for.

Also, I don't think Japan pushing a hard-line position is really smart, everyone knows that there is already tension between SK and Japan and pushing a hard-line position is if anything only to push Seoul further away. Also, what is Abe's long-plan here besides relying on the US?

I would have to agree here. It still baffles me that SK would move in the opposite direction of a reunification

mystes
May 31, 2006

Ardennes posted:

Also, I don't think Japan pushing a hard-line position is really smart, everyone knows that there is already tension between SK and Japan and pushing a hard-line position is if anything only to push Seoul further away. Also, what is Abe's long-plan here besides relying on the US?
I assume by "hard-line position" you're referring to the tweet Chomskyan quoted?

quote:

Despite Trump's pledge of no new sanctions, Japanese PM Abe says Saturday he will increase pressure on North Korea https://t.co/CTx7dhLrHk
This tweet is extremely misleading, because it implies that Abe specifically mentioned pressure on North Korea in the context of imposing new sanctions or something like that, which wasn't something that was stated in the Japanese text it linked. Also, the linked version of the remark that the Kyodo News wire service reported also seems to have been inadvertently somewhat misleading, I think because this was just a quick version they sent out right after he made the remark.

The Jiji Press wire service has a somewhat more fleshed out version that they posted half an hour later, and according to this version all Abe said was something like this:

quote:

The prime minister emphasized that "We must not condone North Korea's possession of Nuclear weapons. We have taken the stance that we can't allow there to be any loopholes and increased the pressure on North Korea, together with the international community."

This is hardly an announcement that Japan is imposing new sanctions.

Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

https://twitter.com/YonhapNews/status/1003177640017068032

https://twitter.com/chosonexchange/status/1003098492401639424

https://twitter.com/PDChina/status/1003086250536865793

https://twitter.com/samhusseini/status/1003072212633554949

https://twitter.com/ShingetsuNews/status/1003204590995628032

https://twitter.com/themainichi/status/1003112194022653952

https://twitter.com/joshrogin/status/1002569532068777984

https://twitter.com/adamjohnsonNYC/status/1003162365070848000

https://twitter.com/adamjohnsonNYC/status/1003166581332103175

https://twitter.com/adamjohnsonNYC/status/1003167778042458112

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

sexpig by night posted:

Abe is extremely right wing regarding Korea and I really doubt has a deeper plan than 'rely on US to back him up' because he probably knows it's a safe bet.

It may be a traditional bet, but one that very well may not be that smart in the long-run especially as the US comes more distracted.



mystes posted:

I assume by "hard-line position" you're referring to the tweet Chomskyan quoted?

This tweet is extremely misleading, because it implies that Abe specifically mentioned pressure on North Korea in the context of imposing new sanctions or something like that, which wasn't something that was stated in the Japanese text it linked. Also, the linked version of the remark that the Kyodo News wire service reported also seems to have been inadvertently somewhat misleading, I think because this was just a quick version they sent out right after he made the remark.

The Jiji Press wire service has a somewhat more fleshed out version that they posted half an hour later, and according to this version all Abe said was something like this:


This is hardly an announcement that Japan is imposing new sanctions.

Personally, I think Japan trying to throw water on the peace-process from the get-go is a pretty hard-line position, especially considering how delicate the SK-Japan relationship is. I honestly don't think the kidnappings are enough to be a serious objection to the talks.

Vladimir Putin
Mar 17, 2007

by R. Guyovich
The two poles in the region are China-NK and US-JP. SK has always been on the US-JP side. JP pulling a hard line is because they don’t want China to get stronger with a China-NK-SK alliance

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Vladimir Putin posted:

The two poles in the region are China-NK and US-JP. SK has always been on the US-JP side. JP pulling a hard line is because they don’t want China to get stronger with a China-NK-SK alliance

By possibly alienating SK or giving NK ammunition there are endangering that alignment by creating a backlash. If anything they should be the "good cop" to the US' "bad cop."

mystes
May 31, 2006

Ardennes posted:

Personally, I think Japan trying to throw water on the peace-process from the get-go is a pretty hard-line position, especially considering how delicate the SK-Japan relationship is. I honestly don't think the kidnappings are enough to be a serious objection to the talks.
What do you mean an "objection to the talks"? If anything, Japan has expressed a vague desire to attempt to make progress on the kidnapping issue through the talks. I don't think anyone has said that resolving the issue is a precondition for the talks to take place. And seriously, when Trump literally cancelled the talks for no reason previously, I don't think Japan expressing the desire to address this issue is something on the level of "throwing water on the peace process".

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

mystes posted:

What do you mean an "objection to the talks"? If anything, Japan has expressed a vague desire to attempt to make progress on the kidnapping issue through the talks. I don't think anyone has said that resolving the issue is a precondition for the talks to take place. And seriously, when Trump literally cancelled the talks for no reason previously, I don't think Japan expressing the desire to address this issue is something on the level of "throwing water on the peace process".

Also "no loopholes" and "increase pressure" sounds like signaling that Tokyo sounds like it may want to derail them, let's be honest it sounds pretty negative.

My point being if NK holds its usual line, it honestly shouldn't be a barrier to the talks since it is honestly a pretty cold issueAs for the abductees, no one knows if they are alive or not and to be honest, some of them almost certainly have died age/disease even if they weren't intentionally killed. (It is very possible especially considering the state of North Korea from the late 1980s to the 2000s.) The youngest on one was born in 1960 and the rest of them would be in their 60s/70s/80s even 90s.

As for remains, that is a separate issue.

Grapplejack
Nov 27, 2007

Trump still hates Japan so I very heavily doubt that they'll have any actual effect on the talks, good or bad.

mystes
May 31, 2006

Ardennes posted:

Also "no loopholes" and "increase pressure" sounds like signaling that Tokyo sounds like it may want to derail them, let's be honest it sounds pretty negative.
It is virtually identical to the language that the Trump administration has used previously; it seems like the Abe administration is just struggling to determine what they're supposed to be saying since Trump suddenly, unexpectedly announced that he doesn't like that sort of language now.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/06/03/national/politics-diplomacy/japan-finds-crossroads-pressure-policy-toward-north-korea/

quote:

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has reiterated in recent years, back when North Korea was still ratcheting up tensions, that maintaining “pressure” on Pyongyang is vital to compel it to discard its nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.

But he has been forced to withdraw his signature policy toward North Korea in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump’s pledge to refrain from using the word “maximum pressure” ahead of the upcoming summit between Washington and Pyongyang on June 12 in Singapore.

On Friday Trump, who has developed strong personal relations with Abe since taking office in January 2017, said he does not want to use the term “maximum pressure” anymore because the United States and North Korea are now “getting along.”

Trump’s remarks led to Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera amending the speech he delivered Saturday at a session of the Asia Security Summit, known as the Shangri-La Dialogue, which took place in Singapore for three days from Friday.

According to a speech draft obtained last week, Onodera was supposed to say that it is necessary to “maintain maximum pressure” on North Korea.

In the actual speech, Onodera said it is necessary to “maintain maximum pressure that has been currently imposed on North Korea,” apparently trying to give the impression that Japan is not considering putting more pressure on Pyongyang.

“We had to change some expressions in the speech, immediately after we knew President Trump made the comments,” a Japanese Defense Ministry official said.

Nevertheless, Onodera was lambasted at the session by South Korean Defense Minister Song Young-moo, who has emphasized the importance of talks with the North to achieve denuclearization on the divided peninsula.

Japan has “hurt” dialogue with North Korea, Song said.

Later Saturday, Onodera shied away from using the word “pressure” with regard to North Korea at a news conference following a trilateral meeting with his U.S. and Australian counterparts, Jim Mattis and Marise Payne.

As long as Trump doesn't go back to talking about "maximum pressure" it is likely that the Japanese government will adjust their talking points to Trump's new position, since they don't really have any choice.

mystes fucked around with this message at 21:45 on Jun 3, 2018

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Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

https://twitter.com/TimothyS/status/1003633349943062528

https://twitter.com/YonhapNews/status/1003544688899416064

https://twitter.com/NoonInKorea/status/1003448248038842369

https://twitter.com/Thoton/status/1003617347595165698
^lmao

https://twitter.com/themainichi/status/1003679044641189888

https://twitter.com/YonhapNews/status/1003710421478531072

Red and Black fucked around with this message at 20:17 on Jun 4, 2018

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