|
LeoMarr posted:Taliban has just declined an extension of the truce. Sadly the government should have waited before playing that out. Agreed to a second ceasefire later on as to not connect the events. Why would Islamic fundementalists extend a ramaddan truce after ramaddan. Sad Immediately after the truce ended the Taliban also captured like 70 Afghan government forces. Their offensive has been going pretty badly for the government this year.
|
#
?
Jun 26, 2018 05:22
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 26, 2024 06:56 |
|
|
LeoMarr posted:Which is version 2 of voter fraud. 53% victory is a lot more believable than 99.999% Yeah, but weren’t the "independent" polls - so much as such a thing still exists in Turkey - in agreement with the government rallies?
|
|
#
?
Jun 26, 2018 09:22
|
|
|
The OPCW FFM report on Douma is expected this week, if not today, and the New York Times just published a report on the attack which demonstrates some very nice open source analysis using techniques developed by Forensic Architecture https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2X84JZINcI You might remember Forensic Architecture from Bellingcat's investigation into the bombing of Al Jinah Mosque by US forces: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pc3UaxLqEWw If you want more of an idea of how open source material is gathered, analysed and archived, with more from Forensic Architecture, it's something we covered at a recent Atlantic Council event: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSUxdyWiTnI It's a really big issue among the justice and accountability types at the moment, I've been doing work on it as part of the ICCs Technology Advisory Board, and there's a bunch of stuff that's been happening quietly over the last couple of years that is leading to groups like the ICC and IIIM on Syria taking the use of open source extremely seriously, both in Syria and in future conflicts. It might be because I'm a big nerd for this stuff, but questions around the use of open source in international and national courts are the biggest topic of discussion nowadays.
|
|
#
?
Jun 26, 2018 12:39
|
|
|
oops
|
|
#
?
Jun 26, 2018 14:35
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/ReutersBiz/status/1011631001267851264?s=19 "Push" is a rather soft word to use. It's cut oil imports from Iran to zero by November or face sanctions.
|
|
#
?
Jun 26, 2018 17:10
|
|
|
OhFunny posted:https://twitter.com/ReutersBiz/status/1011631001267851264?s=19 
|
|
#
?
Jun 26, 2018 17:58
|
|
|
It doesn't really matter, there's very few companies that are willing to risk that, it's extremely hard to make sure your money never goes through US banks, ask FIFA.
|
|
#
?
Jun 26, 2018 19:31
|
|
|
India is gunna buy in rupees. https://in.reuters.com/article/indi...s-idINKBN1JI1NJ People need energy. Time for weird shell company games and non-dollar transactions. OFC this is coupled with USA trying to boost OPEC production and further undercut Iranian revenue (whether this is a primary driver, IDK): https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-iran/iran-says-opec-agreement-did-not-specify-oil-production-increase-idUSKBN1JM0SB https://www.barrons.com/articles/oil-analysts-bullish-on-opec-production-hike-investors-less-pumped-1529955713
|
|
#
?
Jun 26, 2018 19:45
|
|
|
.
Willie Tomg fucked around with this message at 22:50 on Jun 26, 2018 |
|
#
?
Jun 26, 2018 22:47
|
|
|
Christ, Trump is doing everything he can to push the world away from the US dollar...
|
|
#
?
Jun 27, 2018 02:13
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/1011572307951677440
|
|
#
?
Jun 27, 2018 11:35
|
|
|
TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:It doesn't really matter, there's very few companies that are willing to risk that, it's extremely hard to make sure your money never goes through US banks, ask FIFA.
|
|
#
?
Jun 27, 2018 11:58
|
|
|
So far, the US strategy against Iran seems to be "give Iran to China". I wish the governments of Europe would just buy a lot of Iranian oil directly. Not private European companies because they're too open to US sanctions, just the states themselves directly.
|
|
#
?
Jun 27, 2018 14:44
|
|
|
Wait till iran starts ttading their oil for dual use tech
|
|
#
?
Jun 27, 2018 15:16
|
|
|
Cat Mattress posted:So far, the US strategy against Iran seems to be "give Iran to China". Granted, at this point, it is more of a defacto Eurasian coalition with China at its center.
|
|
#
?
Jun 27, 2018 15:46
|
|
|
Just got this in my email: https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...es-2016-to-2017 Conflict, Stability and Security Fund: annual reviews for Middle East and North Africa programmes 2016 to 2017 This page includes annual review summaries of Conflict, Stability and Security Fund programmes in the Middle East and North Africa. Haven't read any yet but thought might be interesting to someone in this thread.
|
|
#
?
Jun 27, 2018 17:03
|
|
|
Muslim Ban 2.0 ruled constitutional by SCOTUS. All visa-holders, immigrants, and refugees from Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Libya, Iran, North Korea, and any government employee or family member of a government employee from Venezuela are now banned from the United States. Permanently.
|
|
#
?
Jun 28, 2018 07:17
|
|
|
Sergg posted:Muslim Ban 2.0 ruled constitutional by SCOTUS. this is wrong in several pedantic but important ways edit not that it's not garbage policy, but the ways you're wrong start with "2.0", it's the third version Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 07:35 on Jun 28, 2018 |
|
#
?
Jun 28, 2018 07:26
|
|
|
GreyjoyBastard posted:this is wrong in several pedantic but important ways Have a link to what the policy actually is? I find stories about the current one, or details about a 2017 version.
|
|
#
?
Jun 28, 2018 17:45
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1012338580117524482quote:French cement giant #Lafarge charged with complicity in crimes against humanity and financing a terrorist organisation for paying millions to jihadist groups, including the Islamic State, in Syria quote:Eight Lafarge executives, including former CEO Bruno Laffont, have already been charged with financing a terrorist group and/or endangering the lives of others over Lafarge's activities in Syria between 2011 and 2015.  Euphrates Volcano moniker.In 2016 it was turned into a helicopter base for US special forces, and that's what it's still being used for. I gotta admit, it's a hell of a story. Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 22:36 on Jun 28, 2018 |
|
#
?
Jun 28, 2018 19:10
|
|
|
OK, that finally brings closure to the dissociation I felt when Lafarge was like one of the major war factions in Syria. Like people would keep on reporting "the Lafarge cement plant is doing this or that" and it was just surreal
|
|
#
?
Jun 28, 2018 19:33
|
|
|
I've never gotten any idea of how the PYD is actually controlled. Is it really anarchic as some of the posters here would believe, or is there some semi-anonymous puppetmaster, like The Organization from the Khmer Rouge? (Not to compare the brutal evil of the Khmer Rouge to the PYD; just that the KR was also a nominally-anarchic organization but actually a dictatorship run anonymously run by Pol Pot.) The US would throw a fit, but what's the chances of the PYD reconciling with Assad? I know Tough Words Have Been Said, but I don't think Assad is actually crazy and I imagine his talking points are so he seems tough for negotiations, and not that he actually thinks he can militarily take the PYD, at least not as long as US service members are in the area. I'm actually kind of surprised he hasn't publicly entertained the idea of federalism. I mean, it was kind of a shitshow in Iraq, but it probably would have been even worse otherwise. Especially it seems on more solid footing now after al-Abadi put down Barzani (or rather, after Barzani shot himself in the foot). Or at least, Erbil Airport is open again for regular international flights and I haven't heard much else lately and I do follow Iraqi news.
|
|
#
?
Jun 28, 2018 21:17
|
|
|
GreyjoyBastard posted:this is wrong in several pedantic but important ways Care to elaborate on the non-pedantic parts? I think this is information that's pretty pertinent to the Middle East thread.
|
|
#
?
Jun 29, 2018 02:11
|
|
|
Sergg posted:Muslim Ban 2.0 ruled constitutional by SCOTUS. Re your "care to elaborate why this post is wrong in pedantic but important ways", for one it’s only a complete ban on DPRK and Syria. So it’s not "all visa holders". https://edition.cnn.com/2018/06/26/politics/travel-ban-effects-on-people-trnd/index.html This distinction is actually pretty substantial between that and an actual ban. I imagine DPRK is not affected either as I doubt any North Koreans have ever been to the US on non-diplomatic visas anyway. (Although how does it work for family members of diplomats? I guess they get diplomatic visas too?)
|
|
#
?
Jun 29, 2018 02:23
|
|
|
Saladman posted:I've never gotten any idea of how the PYD is actually controlled. Is it really anarchic as some of the posters here would believe, or is there some semi-anonymous puppetmaster, like The Organization from the Khmer Rouge? (Not to compare the brutal evil of the Khmer Rouge to the PYD; just that the KR was also a nominally-anarchic organization but actually a dictatorship run anonymously run by Pol Pot.) My impression is that the PYD functions along similar lines as a conventional Marxist-Leninist party. So executive bodies are selected in a periodic Congress by local party representatives. I don't think they have an anonymous puppetmaster unless you're going to count Ocalan, who'se not exactly that sinister. The real question is how much power is the party willing to share with everybody else in the Democratic Federation of Northern Syria. That is, how much of the real decision making power in Rojava is delegated to local Cantons? If a local town for example doesn't want to participate in conscription for example, are they free to do so? There's a lot of partisans with strong opinions based on few facts. There are definitely other political players in Rojava though. Around Raqqa local shiekhs remain powerful, often with their own militias. What I badly want to know; if American funding dried up and Assad decided to march on Hasakah, how many Arabs would choose to stand with the YPG? Without any guns to their back and no dollars in their pocket, has the PYD given everybody under their administration reason to stand with them in the face of crisis? I have no idea.
|
|
#
?
Jun 29, 2018 06:05
|
|
|
OhFunny posted:https://twitter.com/ReutersBiz/status/1011631001267851264?s=19 The EU will probably tell trump to gently caress off, since Iran is one of their big sources of oil and if they followed through with this they'd have to rely way more Russia, which is bad for obvious reasons.
|
|
#
?
Jun 29, 2018 06:13
|
|
|
Sergg posted:Care to elaborate on the non-pedantic parts? I think this is information that's pretty pertinent to the Middle East thread. lots of policy details are pedantic, that's why so few people care about them or remember them  i'll try and dig it up tomorrow, i'm running out of steam for details tonight
|
|
#
?
Jun 29, 2018 06:23
|
|
|
Grapplejack posted:The EU will probably tell trump to gently caress off, since Iran is one of their big sources of oil and if they followed through with this they'd have to rely way more Russia, which is bad for obvious reasons. Well I wouldn't call <5% overall and beeing in the fraction of a percent area for single countries a "big source".  (Source: https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/data-analysis/eu-crude-oil-imports )
|
|
#
?
Jun 29, 2018 08:24
|
|
|
dogboy posted:Well I wouldn't call <5% overall and beeing in the fraction of a percent area for single countries a "big source". Yeah I got that wrong, sorry. I think I was thinking of Iranian natural gas, which the EU has been really keen on getting their hands on, since their main goal at the moment is trying to wean the EU off of Russia's energy influences.
|
|
#
?
Jun 29, 2018 09:56
|
|
|
dogboy posted:Well I wouldn't call <5% overall and beeing in the fraction of a percent area for single countries a "big source". I didn't know you could add percentages like this.
|
|
#
?
Jun 29, 2018 10:02
|
|
|
Svartvit posted:I didn't know you could add percentages like this.
|
|
#
?
Jun 29, 2018 10:24
|
|
|
Grapplejack posted:Yeah I got that wrong, sorry. I think I was thinking of Iranian natural gas, which the EU has been really keen on getting their hands on, since their main goal at the moment is trying to wean the EU off of Russia's energy influences. Regarding the EU energy imports, it is around 69% crude oil and 20% natural gas. The gas comes mostly from Russia (39%) and from Norway (31%) followed by Algeria and Quatar. As far as I can tell there comes next to none natural gas from the Iran (yet). Imports from Iran are currently structured like this: "The EU imported over €10.1 billion worth of goods from Iran in 2017. Most EU imports from Iran are energy-related (mineral fuels account for €8.9 billion and 88.7% of EU imports from Iran), followed by manufactured goods (€0.6 billion, 6.4%), and food (€0.3 billion, 3.3%)." Regarding Russia there are plans (at least from us Germans) to even deepen the ties, "North Stream 2" is the keyword you want to Google for, the project is currently beeing opposed by Poland and the Ukraine (because when the gas runs through their country they make money in various ways, but that has been settled recently afaik) and the USA (who want to sell their fracking stuff, but lol). Russia, despite growing political differences with Europe/Germany, has always been a reliable partner in the energy sector. Providing a realiable and steady income to Russia is also seen as a good thing in terms of stabilizing the country aswell as having political leverage. I _think_ we will go through with lifting the sanctions as a political sign yet keep it on a low burner (see below, Trump reelection) because all pressure from the USA and Israel aside, both countries are currently doing their best to position themselves as highly damaging to the EU and our political efforts, so agendas might finally change. But even then I wouldn't expect the Iran to export much natural gas to the EU because that would tank prices and probably brutally hit the Russian state budget -again- which is in the process of slowly recovering with the oil price getting higher again. Expect the Iran to start doing serious business with China regarding energy and products though and European companies funneling their business through there. Once the water has been tested how far the USA will go with their onesided sanctions regarding doing business with the Iran, the EU might reposition themselves. Also sudden unexpected crazy poo poo from Israel, who knows. Another factor is that everyone is simply waiting out round 1 with Donald Trump. If that spooky ghost goes away next election then everything will go back to normal, noone will be burning any bridges before that. If he gets relected then nothing is off the table I guess.
|
|
#
?
Jun 29, 2018 10:38
|
|
|
President Deals is going to fix Syria: https://twitter.com/Lucian_Kim/status/1012627774589161472
|
|
#
?
Jun 29, 2018 12:49
|
|
|
Yeah the tides been quickly turning against Iran according to news story after news story. This is a reasonable summary: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-28/iran-pounded-on-all-sides-as-oil-buyers-flee-opec-bows-to-u-s
|
|
#
?
Jun 29, 2018 17:14
|
|
|
I don't know how much of the rials crash is related to the potential of impending sanctions vs mismanagement but the economic situation is looking pretty bleak
|
|
#
?
Jun 29, 2018 17:27
|
|
|
Still in the fog of war / fog of bullshitting pro-Assad twitter accounts, but it's certainly looking like the Southern Rebels are collapsing. https://twitter.com/Bosni94/status/1012384510829367296 https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/1012674720683253761 https://twitter.com/WithinSyriaBlog/status/1012650562356211712 https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1012652836616921088
|
|
#
?
Jun 29, 2018 18:14
|
|
|
mediadave posted:Still in the fog of war / fog of bullshitting pro-Assad twitter accounts, but it's certainly looking like the Southern Rebels are collapsing. For what it's worth, Russia seems to be giving them pretty generous terms of surrender. Who knows how effective they'll be at ensuring Assad doesn't just throw everyone in torture dungeons anyway in a year or two, but my impression is that the recent handovers have been pretty smooth, and were obviously intended to serve as a carrot to go with the stick of massive bombardment. If they ever want any hope of reincorporating Idlib/the north/the SDF, having a proven track record of living up to reconciliation agreements seems like a good idea.
|
|
#
?
Jun 29, 2018 18:19
|
|
|
Seymour Hersh is off promoting his new book, and adding to his sterling Syria reporting with this: https://twitter.com/Underground_RT/status/1013050240612651008
|
|
#
?
Jun 30, 2018 23:24
|
|
|
This article is an amazing pro-click, it gives a super in-depth look at the history of the Lafarge plant starting with the pre-civil war background, the nepotism and corruption involved with building a plant in Syria and interacting with the Ba'athist regime, as well as the political wheeling and dealing Lafarge did to keep the plant open during the civil war from 2011 to September 2014. Lafarge dealt with pretty much everybody: the regime, the PYD, the FSA/rebels, and finally ISIS in order to obtain the raw materials needed to keep the plant open. https://tcf.org/content/report/factory-glimpse-syrias-war-economy/ There's also a very interesting background of the ethnic friction seen in the plant's construction and employment, and the general lack of attention Damascus paid to the east Syria area: quote:The site chosen for the LCS plant, Jalabiyya, gave no hint of the grand plans drawn up for its future. Had the outside world not made its presence felt in the form of traffic roaring along the east-west M4 highway, this would have seemed the middle of nowhere. The closest human settlement was Khorrab Asheq, a miserable little Kurdish hamlet just across the M4, which had about half as many inhabitants as the up to 700 people employed at the factory. Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 02:49 on Jul 1, 2018 |
|
#
?
Jul 1, 2018 02:45
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 26, 2024 06:56 |
|
|
Yeah but real world, what are even the potential penalties like? Not like the courts can impose a corporate dissolution or anything.
|
|
#
?
Jul 1, 2018 02:55
|
|