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ArnieD
Apr 1, 2015
I think in general AMLO's election is positive, at least I went from 0% hope to 5% hope now

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rgocs
Nov 9, 2011

Dark_Tzitzimine posted:

I understand that but so far I haven't seen any government actually redistribute wealth. AMLO is promising to do it, but since he didn't do it when he was Mexico City Mayor, I'll wait until he has actions backing up his words. Right now I find his plans to give monthly allowances to be poorly thought and potentially harmful to our economy.
But he did?

He does have actions backing up his words, for example, as Mexico City's mayor he established the minimum guaranteed income for the elderly, economic support for single mothers, scholarships for students, amongst other things.

edit: AMLO's guaranteed income for the elderly in Mexico City (in place since ~2003) was adopted by the federal government and installed country-wide in 2012.

rgocs fucked around with this message at 01:14 on Jul 6, 2018

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day

Dark_Tzitzimine posted:

See this is bullshit.

They asked teenagers in middle school so they weren't from the most marginalized areas to truly believe there's nothing else out there. My father came from a small rural town and he wasn't able to finish middle school and yet he was able to provide for me and me three brothers up to his death. One might not be able to be rich in Mexico but is perfectly doable to have a lifestyle with food, work and shelter simply by putting a bit of effort. Those who think a dictatorship is fine simply if provides money are just lazy that just want to get stuff handed to them with no effort.

Quoting this because holy poo poo.

Doktor Avalanche
Dec 30, 2008

Conspiratiorist posted:

Quoting this because holy poo poo.

he finally revealed his power level

Dark_Tzitzimine
Oct 9, 2012

by R. Guyovich

rgocs posted:

But he did?

He does have actions backing up his words, for example, as Mexico City's mayor he established the minimum guaranteed income for the elderly, economic support for single mothers, scholarships for students, amongst other things.

edit: AMLO's guaranteed income for the elderly in Mexico City (in place since ~2003) was adopted by the federal government and installed country-wide in 2012.

I was talking about redistributing the wealth. Far as I know there were no austerity measures implemented during his tenure as Mexico City Mayor.


nerdz posted:

We're probably arguing different things here, but yeah I'm pretty drat sure that "more welfare" is not what poor people expect from a dictatorship, unless it comes in combat boots form administered to the face.

Yeah, we're talking about different things here. The ones I'm calling lazy are the students who believe a Dictatorship is good because it would bring economic benefits, benefits that might include welfare assistance.

That said

nerdz posted:

Please stop spreading the myth that welfare makes people lazier. It relieves people of the "survival struggle" that keeps them chained down to bad jobs, low training and employer abuse, which cuts mobility opportunities. Being an unemployed single mom is harder work than anyone here has ever done. That program allowed the children of these people to study and move up in society. I actually wonder how many now middle class people uplifted by it cheered when Dilma was impeached.

I've been part of some social assistance programs as I grew, the most important being one offered to young from marginalized boroughs. This program offered a small economic assistance (something like $40 at the current exchange rate) as long its benefiters would participate inactivities for the communities well being (like rehabilitation of public spaces, working to create awareness of the government social assistance programs or learning a trade). I was part of this program for three years and thus, I met many teenagers who actually found something to focus on the many opportunities the program offered. And a recurrent sentiment was that making friendships and learning was more important that getting money. Personally I believe that is the kind of programs Obrador should implement to help the mexican youth and not just offer a monthly allowance.

EDIT:

I just learned that Obrador has designed Marcelo Ebrard as his Foreign Relations Secretary. Ebrard was also his successor as Mayor and one who was severely criticized by cutting corners in the construction of the most ambitious Subway Line, project that was a failure, constantly being out of service during its first year of service.

Dark_Tzitzimine fucked around with this message at 05:38 on Jul 6, 2018

rgocs
Nov 9, 2011

Dark_Tzitzimine posted:

I was talking about redistributing the wealth. Far as I know there were no austerity measures implemented during his tenure as Mexico City Mayor.
His austerity plan for the city's government is also one of his most known accomplishments during his tenure:
http://www.fimevic.df.gob.mx/documentos/transparencia/ley_local/LAusteridadGDF.pdf

El Chingon
Oct 9, 2012

Dark_Tzitzimine posted:

I just learned that Obrador has designed Marcelo Ebrard as his Foreign Relations Secretary. Ebrard was also his successor as Mayor and one who was severely criticized by cutting corners in the construction of the most ambitious Subway Line, project that was a failure, constantly being out of service during its first year of service.

I read about this, didn't like it but I knew it was coming. That subway line was a complete disaster and a money black hole, no wonder when all of it came to light, he escaped to France. I didn't vote for AMLO, but I'm willing to give him a chance, but some of the people that surround him are real scum.

Dark_Tzitzimine
Oct 9, 2012

by R. Guyovich

rgocs posted:

His austerity plan for the city's government is also one of his most known accomplishments during his tenure:
http://www.fimevic.df.gob.mx/documentos/transparencia/ley_local/LAusteridadGDF.pdf

I wasn't aware of that, still, it does ring a little hollow considering the following scandal involving Obrador's personal chauffeur at the time (the infamous "Nico"), the thing with the Gacelas and ultimately, Obrador's trial over defying the resolutions of the ALDF. Not really the best antecedents.


El Chingon posted:

I read about this, didn't like it but I knew it was coming. That subway line was a complete disaster and a money black hole, no wonder when all of it came to light, he escaped to France. I didn't vote for AMLO, but I'm willing to give him a chance, but some of the people that surround him are real scum.

This is one of the most confusing aspects of Obrador's success. People keep touting him as the guy who will finally cut the corruption fostered by the PRI, PAN, and PRD...and many of his close collaborators are former members of said parties and in some cases, they actually have been involved in corruption and/or negligency scandals in the past. Do people don't see this contradiction?

ArnieD
Apr 1, 2015

Dark_Tzitzimine posted:

I wasn't aware of that, still, it does ring a little hollow considering the following scandal involving Obrador's personal chauffeur at the time (the infamous "Nico"), the thing with the Gacelas and ultimately, Obrador's trial over defying the resolutions of the ALDF. Not really the best antecedents.


This is one of the most confusing aspects of Obrador's success. People keep touting him as the guy who will finally cut the corruption fostered by the PRI, PAN, and PRD...and many of his close collaborators are former members of said parties and in some cases, they actually have been involved in corruption and/or negligency scandals in the past. Do people don't see this contradiction?

Yes, we all see it, but the options to Lopez Obrador are PRI, PAN and PRD

Dark_Tzitzimine
Oct 9, 2012

by R. Guyovich

ArnieD posted:

Yes, we all see it, but the options to Lopez Obrador are PRI, PAN and PRD

But what exactly makes him different or warrants he will keep his people in line? Especially now that he has absolute control over the country?

ArnieD
Apr 1, 2015

Dark_Tzitzimine posted:

But what exactly makes him different or warrants he will keep his people in line? Especially now that he has absolute control over the country?

Obviously it all can turn out awful, the guy definitely made some impossible promises, has shady characters in his party and there's no assurance that he'll keep people in line ... But by all accounts AMLO himself seems to be honest and austere, or at least seems to not be driven mainly by making a profit at all cost, that's an improvement IMO, but who knows.

Also, even if a lot of former members of PRI, PAN and PRD joined him, I see the almost destruction of PRI and PRD as a positive (PAN survived), maybe the reshuffling of the parties will make them re-evaluate themselves and come back with a purpose to now truly put the needs of the people and the country first (LOL!)

But what do you think? leave things as they were? that's an opinion I've heard, people are stupid and in general things are/were okay.

Dark_Tzitzimine
Oct 9, 2012

by R. Guyovich

ArnieD posted:

Obviously it all can turn out awful, the guy definitely made some impossible promises, has shady characters in his party and there's no assurance that he'll keep people in line ... But by all accounts AMLO himself seems to be honest and austere, or at least seems to not be driven mainly by making a profit at all cost, that's an improvement IMO, but who knows.

That's debatable since far as I know he has never been clear on where he was getting money for the past 12 years plus there are the previous scandals during his government.

quote:

Also, even if a lot of former members of PRI, PAN and PRD joined him, I see the almost destruction of PRI and PRD as a positive (PAN survived), maybe the reshuffling of the parties will make them re-evaluate themselves and come back with a purpose to now truly put the needs of the people and the country first (LOL!)

The current parties are only being destroyed in name, the ones responsible by their decadence are simply jumping ship to Morena. It would've been different if Morena would've had a clear ideology and principles but they were willing to accept everyone and anyone into their ranks so they're just perpetuating the same corruption they supposedly were against.

quote:

But what do you think? leave things as they were? that's an opinion I've heard, people are stupid and in general things are/were okay.

A strong sentiment in social media right now is that we need to demand Obrador to uphold his promises and for him to respond to the people's demands, I don't see why the same course of action couldn't be applied to any of the other candidates. And since the other candidates wouldn't have had a majority in the Congress it would've been easier to keep in line.

Plutonis
Mar 25, 2011

Brazil is gonna remember about Temer in one hour from now

ArnieD
Apr 1, 2015

Dark_Tzitzimine posted:


A strong sentiment in social media right now is that we need to demand Obrador to uphold his promises and for him to respond to the people's demands, I don't see why the same course of action couldn't be applied to any of the other candidates. And since the other candidates wouldn't have had a majority in the Congress it would've been easier to keep in line.

Nobody's saying we shouldn't watch Obrador and ask for promises to be kept, that should be done and is very good that more people are more aware of how their government is doing and demand more.... even if it's kind of annoying that a large part of that strong sentiment in social media are only now demanding because they see themselves personally affected (they couldn't give a poo poo before for EPN, Calderon or Fox)

Dark_Tzitzimine
Oct 9, 2012

by R. Guyovich

ArnieD posted:

Nobody's saying we shouldn't watch Obrador and ask for promises to be kept, that should be done and is very good that more people are more aware of how their government is doing and demand more.... even if it's kind of annoying that a large part of that strong sentiment in social media are only now demanding because they see themselves personally affected (they couldn't give a poo poo before for EPN, Calderon or Fox)

But then we agree we could've done that to any candidate and not just because is Obrador, right?

ArnieD
Apr 1, 2015

Dark_Tzitzimine posted:

But then we agree we could've done that to any candidate and not just because is Obrador, right?

I agree that we SHOULD ... but if you're talking about this strong sentiment in social media about how they're hoping AMLO shuts them up, and how they're going to be vigilant demanding him to do a good job.. then no, I don't think they would've do that to other candidates.
Let's be honest, a lot of this people only care now because they think they'll be personally affected (even if is real or imaginary), If PRI or PAN would've won they wouldn't care ... btw I'm not a blind AMLO follower, I do acknowledge that more than likely things will stay the same (who knows if worse)

Dark_Tzitzimine
Oct 9, 2012

by R. Guyovich
And people are already justifying Obrador's plans to remove the possibility of a fully autonomous fiscal under the logic of "he just doesn't want to be betrayed like they did it with Dilma"

Do people don't realize that a man with complete power over all government branches can foster a dictatorship? :sigh:

Dark_Tzitzimine fucked around with this message at 01:01 on Jul 8, 2018

Plutonis
Mar 25, 2011

As a Brazilian: that's reasonable.

Sephyr
Aug 28, 2012

Plutonis posted:

As a Brazilian: that's reasonable.

Seconded. Though when the powers that be decide you have to go, anything fits. If they had charged Dilma with having time-traveled to the future and caused the Samarco disaster, the vote would have been the same, and we'd have gotten the exact same tut-tutting op-eds in the local media

Magrov
Mar 27, 2010

I'm completely lost and have no idea what's going on. I'll be at my bunker.

If you need any diplomatic or mineral stuff just call me. If you plan to nuke India please give me a 5 minute warning to close the windows!


Also Iapetus sucks!
So, looks like Lula is going to be set free or something like that. The crazy lady across the street is screaming like we won the World Cup.

Freezer
Apr 20, 2001

The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.
Woah. Can he still run for president?

Pochoclo
Feb 4, 2008

No...
Clapping Larry
Latin-American politicians don't go to jail - they become Senators.

Plutonis
Mar 25, 2011

Pochoclo posted:

Latin-American politicians don't go to jail - they become Senators.

Retard

Pochoclo
Feb 4, 2008

No...
Clapping Larry

Uh, what the gently caress?

You do know about Menem and such?

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

The difference between Lula and Menem is that only Menem actually deserved to go to jail.

Sephyr
Aug 28, 2012

Magrov posted:

So, looks like Lula is going to be set free or something like that. The crazy lady across the street is screaming like we won the World Cup.

Like hell he will. They'll find some judge or court to cancel the order on any pretext. There's some 70% of the Judiciary system whose only legal basis is loving over labour and being fellated by the media for it.

Pochoclo
Feb 4, 2008

No...
Clapping Larry

Badger of Basra posted:

The difference between Lula and Menem is that only Menem actually deserved to go to jail.

Gee okay that'll teach me to try to make a joke about corruption in the Latin American thread.

Antifa Poltergeist
Jun 3, 2004

"We're not laughing with you, we're laughing at you"



Ei brazil can you please decide if you are a neoliberal capitalist hellhole or a socialist demon realm, all this seesawing is anoying.

Dias
Feb 20, 2011

by sebmojo

Antifa Poltergeist posted:

Ei brazil can you please decide if you are a neoliberal capitalist hellhole or a socialist demon realm, all this seesawing is anoying.

It's the former, the people that believe the latter are mostly people working towards the former too.

icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


Has there ever been a for-real socialist government in Latin America, not just left-ISI ones? Outside Cuba of course

Shibawanko
Feb 13, 2013

icantfindaname posted:

Has there ever been a for-real socialist government in Latin America, not just left-ISI ones? Outside Cuba of course

Venezuela

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.

icantfindaname posted:

Has there ever been a for-real socialist government in Latin America, not just left-ISI ones? Outside Cuba of course

Bolivia

Cup Runneth Over
Aug 8, 2009

She said life's
Too short to worry
Life's too long to wait
It's too short
Not to love everybody
Life's too long to hate


Ok someone needs to explain the whole Toribio Achaval/inversiones al costo thing in Argentina to me. This is both fascinating and terrifying to look at. What's with the rows and rows of cul-de-sacs that have maybe a dozen houses sprinkled onto them? And why are they so obsessed with lagoons?

e: Apparently this is a big thing in Tigre as well. https://correctiv.org/en/investigations/climate/article/2017/07/28/sea-rise-argentina-delta-rio-parana/

Cup Runneth Over fucked around with this message at 14:24 on Jul 10, 2018

Pochoclo
Feb 4, 2008

No...
Clapping Larry

Cup Runneth Over posted:

Ok someone needs to explain the whole Toribio Achaval/inversiones al costo thing in Argentina to me. This is both fascinating and terrifying to look at. What's with the rows and rows of cul-de-sacs that have maybe a dozen houses sprinkled onto them? And why are they so obsessed with lagoons?

e: Apparently this is a big thing in Tigre as well. https://correctiv.org/en/investigations/climate/article/2017/07/28/sea-rise-argentina-delta-rio-parana/

Usually it's an attempt at replicating https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nordelta - home to legitimised druglords, members of the peronist mafia, and wealthy owners of rural land.

In general, there's a LOT of "countries" (gated communities) to the north of Buenos Aires, near the delta. It's the "moneyed" area for some reason. And it attracts a lot of money from the rural aristocracy who buy real estate by the bushel. Seriously it's like a rite of passage for the rich to own property there.

Also for some reason this "elite" class of turds is stuck in the 90s when it comes to fashion, playing paddle, and cocaine consumption.

Pochoclo fucked around with this message at 19:04 on Jul 10, 2018

dpkg chopra
Jun 9, 2007

Fast Food Fight

Grimey Drawer
The origin of the gated community boom in Argentina was essentially middle-class white-flight during the late 90’s and 00’s. At first the price was fairly accessible since they were relatively far away.

The business model proved successful and after that, realtors and essentially money-laundering construction business found they gold mines.

The luxury communities Pochoclo mentions are (IMO, I don’t have the numbers) the flashy exception, most of these places are targeted and priced to whatever middle class is left here and most developers will offer installment plans of 5-10 years to pay for your property at usurious rates and then inevitably the whole project goes bankrupt due to lack of payment, embezzlement, currency devaluation, what have you.

Toribio-Achaval is just one of the biggest realtors in the business but not specifically the creator of the model.

hoiyes
May 17, 2007
Old but decent read on the topic: https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/may/19/story-cities-46-buenos-aires-gated-community-nordelta-flood

Cup Runneth Over
Aug 8, 2009

She said life's
Too short to worry
Life's too long to wait
It's too short
Not to love everybody
Life's too long to hate


Thanks, that's informative. The ones I saw were actually south of Buenos Aires by Ezeiza.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Ur Getting Fatter posted:

The origin of the gated community boom in Argentina was essentially middle-class white-flight during the late 90’s and 00’s. At first the price was fairly accessible since they were relatively far away.

The business model proved successful and after that, realtors and essentially money-laundering construction business found they gold mines.

The luxury communities Pochoclo mentions are (IMO, I don’t have the numbers) the flashy exception, most of these places are targeted and priced to whatever middle class is left here and most developers will offer installment plans of 5-10 years to pay for your property at usurious rates and then inevitably the whole project goes bankrupt due to lack of payment, embezzlement, currency devaluation, what have you.

Toribio-Achaval is just one of the biggest realtors in the business but not specifically the creator of the model.

In all honesty, it sounds like Florida (without currency devaluation I guess).

So here is a question, is the middle class/lower middle class in Argentina okay with the Peso dropping through the floor again? Did most of them already cash out into USD at this point? It honestly, looks like the cycle is simply repeating itself.

(The general LA cycle seems some variation of:

1. Currency controls lifted (sometimes with a peg to the dollar)
2. Assets flow out of the country through a sieve
3. IMF is called in and it works it's "magic"
4. A large-scale social crisis occurs
5. Left Populist gets elected, currency-controls reinstated
6. Left Populist gets thrown out due to corruption/cyclical downturn/hassle over currency controls/incompetence
7. Cycle resets under another Washington Consensus-aligned government)

Also, it has to be said, that the capital and currency controls of the 00s don't look as "insane" as they once did all things considered. I mean I know a goon had a hard time importing a German board game and everything.

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 10:22 on Jul 11, 2018

Pochoclo
Feb 4, 2008

No...
Clapping Larry

Ardennes posted:

In all honesty, it sounds like Florida (without currency devaluation I guess).

So here is a question, is the middle class/lower middle class in Argentina okay with the Peso dropping through the floor again? Did most of them already cash out into USD at this point? It honestly, looks like the cycle is simply repeating itself.

(The general LA cycle seems some variation of:

1. Currency controls lifted (sometimes with a peg to the dollar)
2. Assets flow out of the country through a sieve
3. IMF is called in and it works it's "magic"
4. A large-scale social crisis occurs
5. Left Populist gets elected, currency-controls reinstated
6. Left Populist gets thrown out due to corruption/cyclical downturn/hassle over currency controls/incompetence
7. Cycle resets under another Washington Consensus-aligned government)

Also, it has to be said, that the capital and currency controls of the 00s don't look as "insane" as they once did all things considered. I mean I know a goon had a hard time importing a German board game and everything.

Yeah its a lovely cycle that just keeps happening because idiot voters have periodical memory wipes and forgets that neoliberalism always causes a goddamn crisis and is actually a lot lot worse than regular corrupt left-ish peronism. Every. Time.

And no, the middle class is not okay right now. I have family in Arg who are supposed to be middle class, struggling with rent, and it really looks like another crisis is coming.
Note that I moved to the UK a couple years ago so I’m working off what my family tells me

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GimmickMan
Dec 27, 2011

Nobody in Argentina hoards Dollars, is okay with the Peso going down or otherwise benefits from the crisis... Except, of course, for the people who have spent years setting us up for it.

I'm legitimately worried about the future, but I also know that if things go tits up I'm screwed no matter what, so it's a zen kind of despair.

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