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Something shiny will grab Trump's attention and this whole thing will probably be forgotten by Friday. Don't be a bunch a paranoid babies.
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Jul 23, 2018 15:12
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after what happened with North Korea I almost wonder if it just means he’s about to pivot to being nice to them
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Jul 23, 2018 15:13
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DOCTOR ZIMBARDO posted:after what happened with North Korea I almost wonder if it just means he’s about to pivot to being nice to them Which means pivoting back almost immediately afterwards to start making threats and demands.
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Jul 23, 2018 15:35
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Anyone who believes this line of poo poo is a moron: https://twitter.com/SOJTFOIR/status/1021404548412465152
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Jul 23, 2018 15:50
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Sinteres posted:Anyone who believes this line of poo poo is a moron: Yeah, I don't even understand why the military keeps al-Tanf. It doesn't seal the Iraq–Syria border, and it doesn't have any resources, and it doesn't have any population, and it doesn't keep anyone from crossing into the border with Jordan/Iraq. What is the point? Also lol at anyone who's even 1% seriously concerned about Trump invading Iran. Y'all must have not paid attention to anything out of Trump and his administration for the past 2 years. He couldn't organize his way out of a paper bag, I'm pretty sure a full-scale invasion of anything is off the table. I mean he might talk about it like with Venezuela, but almost nothing he says ever gets off the drawing board. Which is fortunate, because he's been a lot less of a lovely president than I was afraid, because he's so grossly incompetent.
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Jul 23, 2018 17:00
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Saladman posted:Also lol at anyone who's even 1% seriously concerned about Trump invading Iran. Y'all must have not paid attention to anything out of Trump and his administration for the past 2 years. He couldn't organize his way out of a paper bag, I'm pretty sure a full-scale invasion of anything is off the table. And that's why Bush never invaded any foreign nations.
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Jul 23, 2018 17:20
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:You really, really want them to be guilty of something, don't you? The White Helmets can be both an organization that does a lot of good on the ground, and also an organization that is very useful to Western interests. I don't understand why people get so worked up about the journalists that have done really good work on them. No one in this thread has (recently, anyway) said that the White Helmets are a total US psy-op, or even that the organization didn't build up organically from the conflict from a real need for humanitarian reasons. But the work they've done in both rescuing victims and documenting war crimes is useful to Western countries. They've advocated for regime change, even going so far as to support the establishment of a no fly zone--which at any point in the war, would have meant a incredibly violent intervention from Western countries, and possibly war with Russia. Also, y'know, White Helmets have been filmed assisting in summary executions and some have had ties to really nasty groups. Nothing is ever clean in war, and you can't give them a pass just because of some slick rescue videos.
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Jul 23, 2018 17:23
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Saladman posted:Also lol at anyone who's even 1% seriously concerned about Trump invading Iran. Y'all must have not paid attention to anything out of Trump and his administration for the past 2 years. He couldn't organize his way out of a paper bag, I'm pretty sure a full-scale invasion of anything is off the table. I mean he might talk about it like with Venezuela, but almost nothing he says ever gets off the drawing board. Which is fortunate, because he's been a lot less of a lovely president than I was afraid, because he's so grossly incompetent. It's not about invasion, it's the >1% chance of anything else because US mideast foreign policy, on both aisles, is driven by Netanyahu & MBS. No tit-for-tat will end well for anyone. Moreover, no serious people in Iran have any respect for Trump, et al and have no interest in civil war. This only plays into the hands of the government to mute dissent. Either way, fwiw Russians still operate an airbase within Iran last I checked. V I wasn't and I've said as much in my other posts here. guidoanselmi fucked around with this message at 21:18 on Jul 23, 2018 |
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Jul 23, 2018 17:43
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Lol if you think russia would engage in open combat with the us for iran. Just lol. The distance between tuapse and iran is so small we could do massive damage to their caucus oil terminals it they joined the confloct . Spare us all this russia on the trigger nonsense. Russians wont save loving iranian. They will cry in the un and make threats
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Jul 23, 2018 18:40
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LeoMarr posted:Lol if you think russia would engage in open combat with the us for iran. Just lol. The distance between tuapse and iran is so small we could do massive damage to their caucus oil terminals it they joined the confloct . Spare us all this russia on the trigger nonsense. Russians wont save loving iranian. They will cry in the un and make threats IMO they'd laugh their asses off that we're stupid enough to get in another pointless war and make everyone in the world think we're even more dangerously unstable than they already think we are.
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Jul 23, 2018 18:45
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Btw, China is doing even more business with Iran than Russia, and has put muscle behind serious infrastructure development. Either way, if either power wanted to give the US a hard time, they just need to ship some ATGMs or SAMs over the Caspian or through Pakistan. They don't need to actually enter the conflict to make a difference. Also, this is clearly a way to distract his base after Helsinki. He just needs his 24 hours.
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Jul 23, 2018 18:56
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DOCTOR ZIMBARDO posted:Ardennes asks important questions about the white helmets imo Literally 'I'm just asking questions!', god this poo poo is always the same.
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Jul 23, 2018 19:06
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Sinteres posted:IMO they'd laugh their asses off that we're stupid enough to get in another pointless war and make everyone in the world think we're even more dangerously unstable than they already think we are. Likely accurate.
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Jul 23, 2018 19:28
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Saladman posted:Yeah, I don't even understand why the military keeps al-Tanf..
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Jul 23, 2018 19:30
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FronzelNeekburm posted:And that's why Bush never invaded any foreign nations. Compared to Donald, Bush Jr. was indeed competent enough to invade foreign nations
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Jul 23, 2018 19:37
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FronzelNeekburm posted:And that's why Bush never invaded any foreign nations. You really can't compare W to Trump. W was an idiot but he had actually participated in running organizations. He flew some planes. He was a human capable of connected thoughts over a period of days. He took in stimuli and sometimes had opinions shaped by them. He could read more than a couple paragraphs in a single sitting. W was a terrible person but it was said best that "Trump is less a person than a collection of terrible traits" My only solace is that I do think actually issuing orders properly to invade might be beyond Trump and there's only so much pushing and pulling Bolton can do.
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Jul 23, 2018 19:41
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Rent-A-Cop posted:Why would anyone want to control the only major highway between Iraq and Syria? Truly a mystery. There's a difference between 'boy I'd like to do this' and 'this is actually justified.' Now that the relevant fronts have moved on, it's hard to see how anyone could even make the case that we're in the latter category there.
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Jul 23, 2018 19:50
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Rent-A-Cop posted:Why would anyone want to control the only major highway between Iraq and Syria? Truly a mystery. There is another highway to the east.
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Jul 23, 2018 20:14
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If russia had the intestinal fortitude to attack theyd have bombed al tanf years ago
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Jul 23, 2018 20:33
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LeoMarr posted:If russia had the intestinal fortitude to attack theyd have bombed al tanf years ago
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Jul 23, 2018 20:38
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FuzzySlippers posted:My only solace is that I do think actually issuing orders properly to invade might be beyond Trump and there's only so much pushing and pulling Bolton can do. It's very easy to order the military to go attack the Middle East. It's stopping that's hard.
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Jul 23, 2018 20:57
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Cat Mattress posted:Pompeo going all "these are evil people, they want to use force to change regimes in the Middle East" is worthy of an ironicat large enough to crush the Earth into a singularity. Yeah that's always what gets me. Iran sucks, they do bad, many of bads. True true. But absolutely nothing about any of what they do is unique at all. They do the same exact stuff that the US does, Turkey does, Saudi Arabia does, Israel does, the UK does, Russia does etc. Lots of brutal real politick chess playing in the region. But they and they alone are some sort of Nazi regime according to Republican hawks. It's like looking back at WW1 propaganda and trying to puzzle out why Germany is supposed to be especially evil compared to everyone else. Grape fucked around with this message at 21:17 on Jul 23, 2018 |
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Jul 23, 2018 21:15
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What's the biggest reason for Iran and Saudi Arabia to be at each other's throats? It's been bugging me for a while, is it just the Shia/Sunni thing? I assume the GOP hates Iran because of the Beirut barracks bombing and Israeli lobbying but is there a good reason for the Iranians and Saudis to hate each other? Is it just that they're both ambitious regional powers? Flavahbeast fucked around with this message at 21:26 on Jul 23, 2018 |
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Jul 23, 2018 21:23
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If it was purely historical religious animosity than Turkey would be the main enemy of Iran, so yes, regional ambition/rivalry figures highly.
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Jul 23, 2018 21:28
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Flavahbeast posted:What's the biggest reason for Iran and Saudi Arabia to be at each other's throats? It's been bugging me for a while, is it just the Shia/Sunni thing? There is an element of this, but to the Al-Sauds, the Iranian regime and influence is an existential threat to the ruling family. Losing enough ground, allies and influence would likely destabilize the country and the economy, and Saudi society does not have a stable social fabric that can sustain these changes.
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Jul 23, 2018 21:34
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Flavahbeast posted:What's the biggest reason for Iran and Saudi Arabia to be at each other's throats? It's been bugging me for a while, is it just the Shia/Sunni thing? Sauds chose to have americans defend the country instead of islamic militiamen, kinda easy to predict that the iranians wouldnt take kindly to that.
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Jul 23, 2018 21:35
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Flavahbeast posted:What's the biggest reason for Iran and Saudi Arabia to be at each other's throats? It's been bugging me for a while, is it just the Shia/Sunni thing? In modern history it goes back to Khomeini's rise. He was very Trump-like in how abrasive he was when he spoke about other countries and rivals, and pretty well isolated Iran. KSA at the time was increasing its relations with the US and the West, which rubbed a lot of people the wrong way given that they were the gatekeepers of Mecca and Medina. Khomeini brought this new wave of Islamic revolution into popularity that undermined the Gulf monarchies legitimacy, so they always viewed Khomeini as a threat. In the 80's you had the Lebanese civil war and the Soviet Afghan war where Iran and KSA supported different forces, and in the Iran-Iraq war KSA supported Saddam. After that there was pretty much no salvaging a positive relationship and they've been competing ever since.
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Jul 23, 2018 21:39
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Volkerball posted:In modern history it goes back to Khomeini's rise. He was very Trump-like in how abrasive he was when he spoke about other countries and rivals, and pretty well isolated Iran. KSA at the time was increasing its relations with the US and the West, which rubbed a lot of people the wrong way given that they were the gatekeepers of Mecca and Medina. Khomeini brought this new wave of Islamic revolution into popularity that undermined the Gulf monarchies legitimacy, so they always viewed Khomeini as a threat. In the 80's you had the Lebanese civil war and the Soviet Afghan war where Iran and KSA supported different forces, and in the Iran-Iraq war KSA supported Saddam. After that there was pretty much no salvaging a positive relationship and they've been competing ever since. In the eyes of iran sauds are western puppets that need to be slayn to bring regional peace.
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Jul 23, 2018 21:41
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LeoMarr posted:In the eyes of iran sauds are western puppets that need to be slayn to bring regional peace. Which explains their equally immense endless hatred for literal NATO member and bordering country Turkey.
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Jul 23, 2018 21:44
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Eh, if that were the case, the animosity would be far more highlighted during the 2000s. Honestly, I think it is a combination of the Arab Spring (Syrian/Yemeni wars) and the rise of MBS who absolutely hates the Iranians. If anything the Iranians were traditionally more concentrated on Israel, which further spurred the Saudi-Israeli alliance. Admittedly, the US and its allies really never liked the Islamic Regime in Iran in the first place, and the Shia/Sunni split has been around for 1500 off years as well.
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Jul 23, 2018 21:50
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LeoMarr posted:In the eyes of iran sauds are western puppets that need to be slayn to bring regional peace. Don't you have homework to do
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Jul 23, 2018 22:02
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Ham posted:There is an element of this, but to the Al-Sauds, the Iranian regime and influence is an existential threat to the ruling family. Losing enough ground, allies and influence would likely destabilize the country and the economy, and Saudi society does not have a stable social fabric that can sustain these changes. Just to expand briefly, they're an existential threat because the Iranian regime is a revolutionary one, built on ideology instead of just power politics. It doesn't do it so much now, but certainly in the 80s Iran was actively trying to export the revolution wherever it could, and it freaked out the Saudis badly. LeoMarr posted:In the eyes of iran sauds are western puppets that need to be slayn to bring regional peace. I can't tell if you're intentionally stupid or just a troll, but your consistently bad spelling is enough. Ignore list for you!
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Jul 23, 2018 22:05
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Ardennes posted:...and the Shia/Sunni split has been around for 1500 off years as well. Just...no...this is wrong on at least two levels.
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Jul 23, 2018 22:05
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Iran only became Shia like 500 years ago lol.
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Jul 23, 2018 22:20
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Rent-A-Cop posted:Why would anyone want to control the only major highway between Iraq and Syria? Truly a mystery. That's a lot of effort to maintain Al-Tanf considering that by now it just adds like an extra 6 hour drive or whatever to go towards Deir Ezzor and then following the Euphrates. Maybe more than 6 hours now that checkpoints are everywhere, but regardless of the exact time it's not like it's some completely strategic asset that can't be circumvented with a little bit of extra driving. It seems like they're just holding onto it for old times' sake back when ISIS controlled territory and that was the only other way between Damascus and Iraq, but I basically never see it mentioned so I have no idea. Is there even a single village in Al-Tanf? I assumed the 'rebel group' there was just like ten guys with two technicals sitting out in a tent with an American flag on it to keep the SAA away. Google Mapsing along the road just shows like a cargo transit terminal near the border, and then a gently caress lot of nothing for like 100 miles.
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Jul 23, 2018 22:20
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Grape posted:Iran only became Shia like 500 years ago lol. It's been going on for those 500 years, anyway. The Ottoman-Persian wars started in the early 16th century and sectarian shia vs. sunni disagreements were a significant part of it.
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Jul 23, 2018 22:30
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Deteriorata posted:It's been going on for those 500 years, anyway. The Ottoman-Persian wars started in the early 16th century and sectarian shia vs. sunni disagreements were a significant part of it. Pan-arabism was significant and long enough to reset the counter.
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Jul 23, 2018 22:33
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guidoanselmi posted:Just...no...this is wrong on at least two levels. The Battle of Kerbala was in 680 CE, so (btw I indicated it was generally) Grape posted:Iran only became Shia like 500 years ago lol. I didn't say Iran has been Shia for 1500 years, but also 500 years is more than enough time considering the Safavid-Ottoman Wars (as another poster mentioned). Tedious. The Cold War was probably a greater effect anyway, specifically: the growth of Armaco and the US backing the Shah. Furthermore, from the 1980s onward: you have the Iraq-Iran Wars, the Iraq War and its aftermath, the Arab Spring, and the rise of MBS.) It isn't a mystery unless you want to somehow frame it than the Iranians are just nuts or Arab nationalism/Pan-Arabism etc. Essentially, this is just the continuation of a conflict that in many ways has been going on since the aftermath of the Second World War. Also you can throw in increasing Russian/Chinese influence in the region as well if you want. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 22:53 on Jul 23, 2018 |
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Jul 23, 2018 22:38
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Flavahbeast posted:I assume the GOP hates Iran because of the Beirut barracks bombing No, the Iranian offense is far worse than that. They've kicked out American oil companies, and that is the unforgivable crime that will attract unquenchable hatred for countless generations.
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Jul 23, 2018 22:46
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Intentionally stupid? Did you forget about the sauds garrisoning US troops prior to 2003 initial invasion? Gee wonder what that looks like to the rest of the ME. Sauds asked americans to come protect the kingdom and denied entry of islamic militias around the same time. Iran sees the sauds as willing to work with the west much more than turkey, yes nato, but turkey has been on the edge of nato for a long time. I know its a hard pill to swallow for the simpletons but Iranians do see sauds as western puppets threatening the region. Whethere they are actual puppets or not the perception of such is strong in Iran. I did enough homework after chit chatting with amir hatami, thanks. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 22:53 on Jul 23, 2018 |
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Jul 23, 2018 22:47
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