Kevin Bonham posted:

The Braddon outcome is not surprising (especially with so many uncertainties) but Longman was not expected by anyone much.

So in the two seats Labor has an average swing of just over 2%. This exceeds the average for Opposition seat by-elections, but it would have been expected to based on the fact that the incumbents were recontesting and the fact that Labor is ahead in national polling. So Labor's performance in Braddon at least is below what would be expected based on those factors, and here the debate can be endless about how much is down to Justine Keay's seat being not referred earlier, how much is down to specifically Tasmanian campaign factors, but what is very difficult here is to see any evidence of an anti-Shorten factor at work. If we try to frame it as a bad night for the Liberals, on the other hand, we run into the objection that they punched above the weight of history in Braddon, while Longman might be written off as caused by the Ruthenberg medals scandal.

This is, then, a good night for Labor, but I don't think it tells us much about how the parties are travelling. The narrative, though, will not be the Coalition's friend, precisely because they were so hyped up by the media for these contests, and we may see that harm them in the polls.

The Peccadillo posted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/marrowing/status/1023170252933222401

Zenithe posted:

Molyneux and Southern are at the Brisbane Convention Centre tonight. Some guy livetweeted the one from last night, it's predictably disgusting and misinformed, especially the poo poo about first nations.

https://twitter.com/SimonCopland/status/1023146540649537536

Zenithe posted:

Molyneux and Southern are at the Brisbane Convention Centre tonight. Some guy livetweeted the one from last night, it's predictably disgusting and misinformed, especially the poo poo about first nations.

https://twitter.com/SimonCopland/status/1023146540649537536

drunkill posted:

Uhhhh...

https://twitter.com/lanesainty/status/1023054415928807424?s=19

Isn't he supposidly leading the nation?

BBJoey posted:

It’s flying under the radar because there literally isn’t a campaign, it’s a rubber stamping exercise for the two ALP candidates

JBP posted:

I'm on holiday right now but I understand Bill Shorten has achieved a "stunning victory". Who did he fight?

ewe2 posted:

Gosh really, what an insight. Do you think any of the other parties running in those electorates realized?

Anidav posted:

Full communism Wayne and his revolution warning.

Zenithe posted:

Molyneux and Southern are at the Brisbane Convention Centre tonight. Some guy livetweeted the one from last night, it's predictably disgusting and misinformed, especially the poo poo about first nations.

https://twitter.com/SimonCopland/status/1023146540649537536

quote:

"We in the west have extended ethics beyond the in group. That's why we have human rights, that's why we ended slavery, that's why we extended rights to minority group's. We are the only culture to have done that. Other cultures are not Universalist but we are."

bandaid.friend posted:

The stuff on Aboriginal people has the feel of "I googled them for five minutes then just made some poo poo up"

JBP posted:

I'm on holiday right now but I understand Bill Shorten has achieved a "stunning victory". Who did he fight?

JBP posted:

I'm on holiday right now but I understand Bill Shorten has achieved a "stunning victory". Who did he fight?

News Corp Editorial posted:

HAVING discharged their democratic duty at the polling booths, the good people of Longman can now look forward to returning to some normality in their lives – juggling jobs with parenting or other care responsibilities, paying the bills, facing the daily commute, and wondering if the fish will be biting this weekend.

For the past two months, the electorate – stretching from semi-rural Woodford through outer suburban Caboolture to the coastal and retirement haven of Bribie Island – has been at the epicentre of the federal political scene.

It has been bombarded with party propaganda material and has hosted a constant stream of political heavyweights of every persuasion.

The Super Saturday by-elections – particularly those in the sharply marginal seats of Longman and Braddon – were widely seen as a dress rehearsal for a federal election some time within the next 16 months.

But at a time when voters, more than ever, yearn for policies that speak to the very real practical issues in their lives, they were delivered spin, particularly from an ALP campaign bankrolled by big donations from their union masters.

A by-election campaign that began with disinterest and the disappointment of many voters that they had to return to the polls again so soon, has concluded with disenchantment and disillusion among many.

However clearly a proportion of voters was influenced by union-driven class war campaigning.

The stubbornly persistent support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party – last night candidate Matthew Stephen polled at about 15 per cent – reflects a broad dissatisfaction with both major parties.

It’s the same sort of dispiritedness and discontent with the status quo that propelled Donald Trump into the White House and woe betide Labor and the Coalition should a third force capable of truly galvanising that mood, emerge.

In holding Longman, Labor has done no more than expected. On paper, it was a battle Malcolm Turnbull’s team did not have a remote chance of winning.

History was firmly against them, as an incumbent government has not taken an Opposition-held seat in a by-election for 98 years.

Alleviating that challenge slightly was the anger that voters felt towards the Labor candidate and their previous MP, Susan Lamb. It was her actions in failing to renounce her dual British citizenship that led to her resignation and forced them back to the polls for a by-election.

She was elected only two years ago with a wafer-thin 0.8 per cent margin, and, with a perception in the electorate that she was not as active locally as she might be, Labor could not count on a strong personal vote.

Instead, the ALP relied heavily on leader Bill Shorten – who visited Longman half a dozen times during the campaign – and on the financial and manpower clout of the union movement.

The seat was fertile ground for the ALP chief’s class-war rhetoric – an area of high unemployment, low incomes, and a large number of age pensioners.

But the fact that Labor only prevailed, thanks in part to the unpredictability of One Nation preference flows, shows that neither its policies nor bellicose Bill’s leadership style resonated with a clear majority of voters.

It’s richly ironic that for a populist politician, Shorten remains very unpopular with wide sections of Australia.

Heading into Super Saturday, Mr Shorten’s leadership was under a cloud, with rumblings of a potential challenge from Anthony Albanese.

Opinion polls showed Labor would record a stronger vote in both Braddon and Longman if Albanese was at the helm and yesterday’s fight was to save seats they already held.

Mr Shorten’s position now seems secure. However, to win government at the general election, he must claim seats in Queensland. On this result he has a chance but he is still to be fully tested.

The people of Queensland have not warmed to Mr Shorten or his policies during his time as Opposition Leader. Simply, he doesn’t get us and we don’t fully trust him.

Winning Longman and Braddon was always an unlikely task for the Coalition but, notwithstanding the alarming loss of primary vote in Longman, the Prime Minister will take some heart from the Government’s performance in recent months.

Finally free of the Barnaby Joyce affair and bitter internal squabbling, Turnbull and his Coalition team have been looking more sure-footed than at any time since those early days immediately after he replaced Tony Abbott as leader.

They have a coherent and effective economic strategy that will deliver broad benefits across the community, and a renewed confidence from their recent success in getting the personal income tax package through Parliament.

This kind of policy development is where frustrated voters want the parties to give their undivided focus, not to personality politics, however the Coalition remains susceptible to Labor’s class war attacks.

Anidav posted:

News Corpse Editorial

Anidav posted:

Don Dongington posted:

Albanese, who blindly followed a news corp narrative that he had to know was built on the flimsiest foundations

The CPG and News especially, who have been fiddling with polls for the past 12+ months in order to twist the narrative away from the massive electoral spanking that is totally due for the Liberal's. They think that hiding the real scale of public distaste will prevent donors from leaving the sinking ship like rats. Problem is, at some point they must have started believing their own spin, because they based their own campaign against Shorten on a projected mediocre performance, which was well short of what he managed to deliver. What confidence in the media and CPG remained has got to take a huge hit from this.

Turnbull, who really has nothing left to show for his leadership performance. And now Dutton knows the gerrymandering of Dickson won't save him, he's going to get desperate.

Tasmantor posted:

Man I bet that's a cool group of young people to hang out with.

bell jar posted:

turnbull eating a pie with a knife and fork is somehow worse than tone eating an onion