boop the snoot posted:

WAR CRIME SYNDICAT posted:

Now we can buy some more jet fighters!

It's fighter jets, Donnie, and even then only if you're 12

mlmp08 posted:

Ha, in response to FiveThirtyEight putting up their site, people were preemptively posting that it was of course time for a bunch of jerks to post up a prediction that was wrong and not from the week prior to the election. Three days before the election, they had Clinton's odds at 64%.

psydude posted:

I don't know why people have such a hard time understanding that statistical predictions like this are not vote tallies. 64% odds of winning still gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning, and 538 specifically talked about how they were seeing worrying results out of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin well before the election.

Put more plainly, 64 or 75% odds doesn't guarantee an outcome, and Nate Silver has always been very upfront about that compared to other odds makers.

boop the snoot posted:

Then why post it at all instead of just telling people to go vote? It’s really stupid to post anything that shows odds in favor of one thing or another, especially when you are fully aware that people will interpret it incorrectly.

It’s setting it up for failure. You’re not going to educate people on what polls mean so stop feeding into their ignorance.

mlmp08 posted:

That's part of why FiveThirtyEight still puts up percentage odds, but in big, bold letters uses a different metric. 3 in 4 chance, for example.

It seems the average person understands 3 in 4 chance better than saying someone has a 75% chance of winning, even though they're identical. Maybe the latter gets read as 75% of votes, which would be a landslide?

Vasudus posted:

Solution: make every American play XCOM and then ask them how confident they are with 64% odds.

Vasudus posted:

Solution: make every American play XCOM and then ask them how confident they are with 64% odds.

Mr. Nice! posted:

Vilerat and his mom come to mind.

Vasudus posted:

Solution: make every American play XCOM and then ask them how confident they are with 64% odds.

facialimpediment posted:

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1030451360779710465?s=19

Solaris 2.0 posted:

Speaking of, was Vilerats Mom an actual Trumpists or was she so blinded by rage/sadness/angst that she willfully allowed herself to be coopted by the big orange idiot?

Has she ever expressed any regret for her role in getting Trump elected?

Vasudus posted:

Solution: make every American play XCOM and then ask them how confident they are with 64% odds.

bulletsponge13 posted:

Can you give us a TL;DR version?

quote:

One of the most famous exchanges in the twentieth century is recorded in Sir Ernest Shackleton’s South! – the account of his ill-fated Imperial Trans-Antarctic Expedition of 1914-17, and the book that helped to secure Shackleton’s legacy as a leading exemplar of British heroism.

Shackleton and his crew set off from Plymouth in August 1914 at the outbreak of the Great War, having petitioned the Admiralty to offer their services to the war effort, only to receive a one-word telegram ordering them to ‘proceed’. Apart from brief calls at Buenos Aires and South Georgia, the expedition was then completely out of contact with the outside world as the war progressed.

The long and arduous entrapment of the expedition crew in the Antarctic ice are stuff of legend. After the sinking of the Endurance in November 1915, the famous 1300km voyage of the tiny boat James Caird from Elephant Island to South Georgia to summon aid is rightfully described as one of the greatest feats of maritime navigation in modern times.

Upon finally reaching the Norwegian whaling station at Stromness in May 1916, the exhausted and relieved party begged for news of the outside world, having been totally isolated from developments. Shackleton recites the scene in South!:

Shivering with cold, yet with hearts light and happy, we set off towards the whaling-station, now not more than a mile and a half distant. The difficulties of the journey lay behind us. We tried to straighten ourselves up a bit, for the thought that there might be women at the station made us painfully conscious of our uncivilized appearance. Our beards were long and our hair was matted. We were unwashed and the garments that we had worn for nearly a year without a change were tattered and stained. Three more unpleasant-looking ruffians could hardly have been imagined. [Shackleton’s navigator, New Zealander Frank] Worsley produced several safety-pins from some corner of his garments and effected some temporary repairs that really emphasized his general disrepair. Down we hurried, and when quite close to the station we met two small boys ten or twelve years of age. I asked these lads where the manager's house was situated. They did not answer. They gave us one look—a comprehensive look that did not need to be repeated. Then they ran from us as fast as their legs would carry them. We reached the outskirts of the station and passed through the "digesting-house," which was dark inside. Emerging at the other end, we met an old man, who started as if he had seen the Devil himself and gave us no time to ask any question. He hurried away. This greeting was not friendly. Then we came to the wharf, where the man in charge stuck to his station. I asked him if Mr. Sorlle (the manager) was in the house.

"Yes," he said as he stared at us.

"We would like to see him," said I.

"Who are you?" he asked.

"We have lost our ship and come over the island," I replied.

"You have come over the island?" he said in a tone of entire disbelief.

The man went towards the manager's house and we followed him. I learned afterwards that he said to Mr. Sorlle: "There are three funny-looking men outside, who say they have come over the island and they know you. I have left them outside." A very necessary precaution from his point of view.

Mr. Sorlle came out to the door and said, "Well?"

"Don't you know me?" I said.

"I know your voice," he replied doubtfully. "You're the mate of the Daisy."

"My name is Shackleton," I said.

Immediately he put out his hand and said, "Come in. Come in."

"Tell me, when was the war over?" I asked.

"The war is not over," he answered. "Millions are being killed.
Europe is mad. The world is mad."

Vasudus posted:

Solution: make every American play XCOM and then ask them how confident they are with 64% odds.

Vasudus posted:

Solution: make every American play XCOM and then ask them how confident they are with 64% odds.

shame on an IGA posted:

A thriving drug market is the first point of evidence I've heard that Tesla might be a legit auto factory. Only one dealer though? Amateurs.

mlmp08 posted:

For what it’s worth*, the NSC spokesperson says POTUS is not considering Prince’s proposal.

*I’ve no idea what it’s worth, myself

Solaris 2.0 posted:

Haha isn’t that the same Blackwater/Eric prince group that committed war crimes in Iraq AND got a few of their mercs strung up on a bridge in Fallujah?

facialimpediment posted:

Forever War 3.0

https://twitter.com/KenDilanianNBC/status/1030486187348291584?s=19

quote:

When Trump announced the current strategy, he noted that his "original instinct was to pull out, and historically I like following my instincts." 

boop the snoot posted:

How do you privatize a war? Doesn’t the money ultimately come from taxes anyway?

45 ACP CURES NAZIS posted:

yeah unless you go full on east india company and pillage their resources

Nostalgia4Butts posted:

Pls don't reveal my civ v EUIV tactics

maffew buildings posted:

Prince was a SEAL, Fox News talks that up and the CHUDS back it because SEALs are their favorite species of military

McNally posted:

Because they get soldiers killed?