Doomsday Econ: mmt'lady

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triple sulk: Sep 17, 2014

Jose posted:

hell yeah

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1030658088947408897

lmao

# ? Aug 18, 2018 07:38

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# ? Jun 3, 2024 16:03

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

this will free CEOs from shortsighted demands by shareholders and we'll enter in a new responsible utopian age

# ? Aug 18, 2018 07:42

Sheng-Ji Yang: Mar 5, 2014

it owns that trump is doing everything possible to extend this bubble and worsen the inevitable crash

# ? Aug 18, 2018 07:53

1982 Subaru Brat: Feb 2, 2007; by Athanatos

President Trump proposes new rule that all stockbrokers respond to any drop of 5% or more in the major stock indices by shaking their heads and saying "nope, that's not possible" until it goes back up

# ? Aug 18, 2018 09:32

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

1982 Subaru Brat posted:

President Trump proposes new rule that all stockbrokers respond to any drop of 5% or more in the major stock indices by shaking their heads and saying "nope, that's not possible" until it goes back up

Trump will make it illegal for stocks to decrease in price.

# ? Aug 18, 2018 13:21

Mean Baby: May 28, 2005

triple sulk posted:

lmao

HRC wanted to do yearly reports to �fix capitalism�.

# ? Aug 18, 2018 13:25

StashAugustine: Mar 24, 2013; Do not trust in hope- it will betray you! Only faith and hatred sustain.

If the rate of profit falls in a forest and no one hears it did it happen?

# ? Aug 18, 2018 14:05

comedyblissoption: Mar 15, 2006

StashAugustine posted:

If the rate of profit falls in a forest and no one hears it did it happen?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xyqDUl9jkA

# ? Aug 18, 2018 14:12

Horseshoe theory: Mar 7, 2005

etalian posted:

Trump will make it illegal for stocks to decrease in price.

Works for China (his influence on this), after all.

# ? Aug 18, 2018 14:43

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Horseshoe theory posted:

Works for China (his influence on this), after all.

lol

https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/17/technology/chinese-tech-stocks/index.html

quote:

The country's major players -- Baidu (BIDU), Alibaba (BABA) and Tencent (TCEHY) -- have lost hundreds of billions of dollars in market value in the past few months.

And the slump is wider than just those three. While US tech stocks have generally been on the rise -- the Dow Jones Internet Composite Index is up more than 25% this year -- their Chinese counterparts have headed in the opposite direction. An index that tracks leading Chinese tech companies is down about 12%.

Some market experts say investors got carried away and ignored warnings that they were paying far more than Chinese internet companies' earnings justified.

Mohammed Apabhai, head of Asia trading strategy at Citigroup, likens the exuberance for tech stocks to the Looney Tunes cartoons in which Wile E. Coyote chases Road Runner over a cliff.

"You know when he goes over the edge and he keeps pedaling before he drops?" Apabhai said. "It's like that."

# ? Aug 18, 2018 14:51

Horseshoe theory: Mar 7, 2005

etalian posted:

lol

https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/17/technology/chinese-tech-stocks/index.html

Here's hoping that all stocks crash and burn soon enough. :peanut:

# ? Aug 18, 2018 14:57

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Horseshoe theory posted:

Here's hoping that all stocks crash and burn soon enough.

I hope there is a 90s style tech sector crash except on the global level.

# ? Aug 18, 2018 15:02

Teal: Feb 25, 2013; by Nyc_Tattoo

https://twitter.com/TurdyMcFergy/status/1030624732411043840

holy poo poo this is making me angry; this is why we can't have nice things

he recognizes the pay is abnormal for cashiers, he recognizes they're super successful and once they point out "so uh it's cause we're kinda a cooperative" he flips his poo poo

it's so loving common with right wing and ever more so with centrists who see ideology and politics on the same level choice of a sports team to support or taste in music; they think it's 100% detached from everyone's life and with zero implications in social context

# ? Aug 18, 2018 15:04

comedyblissoption: Mar 15, 2006

Teal posted:

https://twitter.com/TurdyMcFergy/status/1030624732411043840

holy poo poo this is making me angry; this is why we can't have nice things

he recognizes the pay is abnormal for cashiers, he recognizes they're super successful and once they point out "so uh it's cause we're kinda a cooperative" he flips his poo poo

it's so loving common with right wing and ever more so with centrists who see ideology and politics on the same level choice of a sports team to support or taste in music; they think it's 100% detached from everyone's life and with zero implications in social context

people are heavily propagandized from birth to be bootlickers. they are institutionally trained and raised like brains in a vat to be Obedient Workers. ideas like workers should own the business are filtered out completely and beaten out of peoples' skulls

# ? Aug 18, 2018 15:10

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

comedyblissoption posted:

people are heavily propagandized from birth to be bootlickers. they are institutionally trained and raised like brains in a vat to be Obedient Workers. ideas like workers should own the business are filtered out completely and beaten out of peoples' skulls

Americans are trained from birth to be like that the horse who kills himself in animal farm from overwork.

# ? Aug 18, 2018 15:14

Epic High Five: Jun 5, 2004

Teal posted:

https://twitter.com/TurdyMcFergy/status/1030624732411043840

holy poo poo this is making me angry; this is why we can't have nice things

he recognizes the pay is abnormal for cashiers, he recognizes they're super successful and once they point out "so uh it's cause we're kinda a cooperative" he flips his poo poo

it's so loving common with right wing and ever more so with centrists who see ideology and politics on the same level choice of a sports team to support or taste in music; they think it's 100% detached from everyone's life and with zero implications in social context

just eat sheet cake! why won't you let us stick cameras in the face of vulnerable people and work with the police to identify them?!

# ? Aug 18, 2018 15:15

Agronox: Feb 4, 2005

etalian posted:

Americans are trained from birth to be like that the horse who kills himself in animal farm from overwork.

His name was Boxer and he made it to Sugarcandy Mountain :3:

# ? Aug 18, 2018 15:17

Agronox: Feb 4, 2005

oh wait, correcting my last post, i believe he was sold for meat, hides, and glue

# ? Aug 18, 2018 15:20

Epic High Five: Jun 5, 2004

etalian posted:

Americans are trained from birth to be like that the horse who kills himself in animal farm from overwork.

trained to worship and turned into glue when that worship is no longer profitable

# ? Aug 18, 2018 15:20

Nice piece of fish: Jan 29, 2008; Ultra Carp

Teal posted:

https://twitter.com/TurdyMcFergy/status/1030624732411043840

holy poo poo this is making me angry; this is why we can't have nice things

he recognizes the pay is abnormal for cashiers, he recognizes they're super successful and once they point out "so uh it's cause we're kinda a cooperative" he flips his poo poo

it's so loving common with right wing and ever more so with centrists who see ideology and politics on the same level choice of a sports team to support or taste in music; they think it's 100% detached from everyone's life and with zero implications in social context

And that company's name? Albert Einstein

# ? Aug 18, 2018 15:21

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Epic High Five posted:

trained to worship and turned into glue when that worship is no longer profitable

It's why Bernie will need re-education camps in which people will forced to do things like slap their manager.

# ? Aug 18, 2018 15:26

Lawman 0: Aug 17, 2010

etalian posted:

It's why Bernie will need re-education camps in which people will forced to do things like slap their manager.

Keep going

# ? Aug 18, 2018 15:27

Epic High Five: Jun 5, 2004

if it's real, I'd be interested to hear what his response ACTUALLY was

pretty unlikely someone who believes in the sacred power of kings would respond well to finding out that the job is so great because it's a socialist collective and doing the basic math to reach "hey if I'm creating 25 an hour of value just by cashiering, why is everybody else who does it making $8/hr?"

# ? Aug 18, 2018 15:39

Dawncloack: Nov 26, 2007; ECKS DEE!; Nap Ghost

NNick posted:

HRC wanted to do yearly reports to “fix capitalism”.

I couldn't find a source for this. Can you help?

Thanks! I didnt find a quote.

# ? Aug 18, 2018 15:50

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

https://twitter.com/eurogamer/status/1030775397636558850

# ? Aug 18, 2018 16:26

Mean Baby: May 28, 2005

Dawncloack posted:

I couldn't find a source for this. Can you help?

Thanks! I didnt find a quote.

yeah it was a vox article

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/2015/7/24/9031597/hillary-clinton-quarterly-capitalism

# ? Aug 18, 2018 17:21

mila kunis: Jun 10, 2011

https://twitter.com/stevesaretsky/status/1029894397658193920

global real estate crash soon pls

# ? Aug 18, 2018 17:32

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

mila kunis posted:

https://twitter.com/stevesaretsky/status/1029894397658193920

global real estate crash soon pls

# ? Aug 18, 2018 17:37

Epic High Five: Jun 5, 2004

Canada and Australia are the most likely first dominos to fall right?

# ? Aug 18, 2018 17:38

CoolCab: Apr 17, 2005; glem

Epic High Five posted:

Canada and Australia are the most likely first dominos to fall right?

london with brexit i bet, that's going to drop property values by a shitton

# ? Aug 18, 2018 17:45

Lawman 0: Aug 17, 2010

mila kunis posted:

https://twitter.com/stevesaretsky/status/1029894397658193920

global real estate crash soon pls

Owned

# ? Aug 18, 2018 17:46

Epic High Five: Jun 5, 2004

also that "understanding the cycles" comment seems to indicate that the wise men in the room are getting the gently caress out of the market as fast as possible

# ? Aug 18, 2018 17:51

CoolCab: Apr 17, 2005; glem

Epic High Five posted:

also that "understanding the cycles" comment seems to indicate that the wise men in the room are getting the gently caress out of the market as fast as possible

it is amazing how consistently people forget that they're called bubbles because they pop

# ? Aug 18, 2018 17:54

bob dobbs is dead: Oct 8, 2017; I love peeps; Nap Ghost

Epic High Five posted:

pretty unlikely someone who believes in the sacred power of kings would respond well to finding out that the job is so great because it's a socialist collective and doing the basic math to reach "hey if I'm creating 25 an hour of value just by cashiering, why is everybody else who does it making $8/hr?"

garry tan, partner of the venture capital firm initialized vc, and partner of y combinator back in the day (and like 6th employee of palantir the consulting-cum-government-contracts company), basically used this exact argument and the actual words "grab the means of production" to try to get peeps to start companies

(cursed fact)

# ? Aug 18, 2018 17:55

goddamnedtwisto: Dec 31, 2004; If you ask me about the mole people in the London Underground, I WILL be forced to kill you; Fun Shoe

CoolCab posted:

london with brexit i bet, that's going to drop property values by a shitton

Nah, they'll wipe out even the tiny figleaf of controls on who can buy property in the UK and capital flight will do the rest, and the Tories will say "See! House prices have gone up 10 percent! Brexit is a success!" (assuming the pound only moderately shits itself, making property even cheaper for foreign speculators, rather than drops completely into freefall, but that's a big assumption).

# ? Aug 18, 2018 18:03

Agronox: Feb 4, 2005

Epic High Five posted:

Canada and Australia are the most likely first dominos to fall right?

maybe, but once JYNA trips is when poo poo gets real

# ? Aug 18, 2018 18:04

Sheng-Ji Yang: Mar 5, 2014

quote:

But Turkey is just the most extreme example of the growing debt crisis beginning to hit economies that depend on foreign capital flows and investment in order to grow (and that�s most). I have raised this prospect of an emerging economy debt crisis in previous posts, most recently with the fall of the Argentine peso. A strong dollar (the main currency of loans), rising interest rates (with the Fed and now the Bank of England hiking policy rates) and higher oil prices for those that must import energy (eg Argentina, Turkey, Ukraine, South Africa etc): are the factors triggering this impending crisis � not seen since the Asian/EM crisis of 1998.

According to the IIF, the international research body of major multi-national banks, global debt (including financial sector debt) has reached $247trn, nearly 250% of world GDP. That would mean world debt grew something like 13% in the three years ended 2017.

And as I have argued before, the locus of this impending debt crisis is not to be found in household debt (as it was in the global credit crunch in 2007 that led to the Great Recession) or in public sector debt (where governments have been applying stringent �austerity� measures), but in corporate debt (the heart of capitalist accumulation).

The global financial crash of 2008-9, ten years ago, did not lead to a total collapse of capitalism, even though it triggered the worst slump in investment and production since the 1930s. The financial sector was bailed out by huge injections of credit and cash and the capitalist sector was supported by zero or even negative interest rate policy by the central banks and unprecedented levels of money �printing�, called quantitative easing. The result was not much of an expansion in investment or production. In the major capitalist economies, economic growth (real GDP growth) has averaged no more than 2% a year (slightly more in the US and less elsewhere). In the so-called emerging economies, average growth rates also fell back. But above all, debt in all sectors rose. The result was inflated financial asset prices without the kind of �recovery� seen in previous �business cycles�.

Just a decade after the Great Recession, the average US non-financial business went from 3.4x leverage (debt to earnings) to 4.1x. They are now roughly 20% more leveraged than they were the last time all hell broke loose. While Trump boasts of 4% growth and the US corporate sector never having it so good, the level of corporate debt in the US, alongside rising interest rates, is setting the scene for a new debt crisis.

How will such a crisis emerge? In the next year, US companies must refinance about $4trn of bonds, almost all of it at higher interest rates. This will hit debt-burdened companies that are already struggling and make it almost impossible for some to keep operating. Lenders, i.e. high-yield bond holders, will try to exit their positions all at once only to find a severe shortage of willing buyers. Something, possibly high-yield bonds, will set off a liquidity scramble.

Almost half of US investment-grade companies are rated BBB (just above �junk�) and could easily slip into junk status in a downturn. Rising defaults will force banks to reduce lending, depriving previously stable businesses of working capital. This will reduce earnings and economic growth. The lower growth will turn into negative growth and we will enter recession. That is the likely scenario ahead.

Returning to �emerging� economies, already banks and financial institutions globally are cutting back on their loans to the likes of Turkey etc.

But also capital flows from the non-financial sector to invest globally have declined. Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows fell by 23% to $1.43 trn in 2017, according to the latest report by UNCTAD. Investment in new projects fell 14%. Interestingly, most of this fall was between the advanced capitalist economies. FDI flows to developing economies remained stable at $671 billion, after a 10 per cent drop in 2016. But inward FDI flows to developed economies fell sharply, by 37 per cent, to $712 billion.

Global capital movements, driven mainly by debt-related flows, increased rapidly in the run-up to the financial crisis but then collapsed from 22% of global GDP in 2007 to just 3.2% in 2008. The subsequent recovery was modest and short-lived. In 2015, flows were still only 4.7% of global GDP. Cross-border capital flows remain well below pre-crisis levels. Overall net capital flows to �emerging� economies were actually negative in 2015 and 2016, before turning slightly positive in 2017.

According to UNCTAD, �projections for global FDI in 2018 show fragile growth�. Global flows are forecast to increase marginally, by up to 10%, but remain well below the average over the past ten years. Multi-national companies are cutting back on international investment, partly because of the risk of a future trade war after Trump�s protectionist measures; and partly because possible debt crises in the most vulnerable �emerging� economies. But a key reason is a fall in profitability from overseas investment. UNCTAD found that the global average return on foreign investment is now at 6.7%, down from 8.1% in 2012. Return on investment is in decline across all regions, with the sharpest drops in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean.

As a result, the rate of expansion of international production is slowing down. Assets and employees are increasing at a slower rate. Growth in the global value chain (GVC) has stagnated. Foreign investor profit in global trade peaked in 2010�2012 after two decades of continuous increases. UNCTAD�s GVC data show foreign value added down 1 percentage point to 30% of trade in 2017. It�s not just as profitable to trade or invest globally compared to before the Great Recession.

The story of the last ten years since the Great Recession is that the world capitalist economy has staggered on at low levels of growth and investment and with virtually no improvement in real incomes for the 90%. And it has only staggered on because of a huge build-up in debt, particularly in the capitalist sector. Now, monetary authorities are trying to reverse the credit binge and restore �normality�. As a result, the cost of servicing that debt is on the rise and availability of more credit to finance is shrinking.

When we read the financial press, we see the huge profits being made by the top companies (mainly in the US � in Europe, profits are down even for the large), but the vast majority of companies are still not achieving the profitability they need to finance their debts if the cost of servicing rises sufficiently. And globally, banks and corporate investors are reducing their loans and investments because of low profitability and concerns about declining trade growth and a global trade war. And that pending trade war still has some way to go.

https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2018/08/03/a-new-global-credit-crunch-to-come/

# ? Aug 18, 2018 18:09

got any sevens: Feb 9, 2013; by Cyrano4747

etalian posted:

lol

https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/17/technology/chinese-tech-stocks/index.html

looney tunes economics

# ? Aug 18, 2018 18:09

Larry Parrish: Jul 9, 2012; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

You'd think whoever made that post about not being hired by the co-op would have remembered that military pay is more or less equal (if you don't count rated officers or flag officers)

# ? Aug 18, 2018 18:09

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# ? Jun 3, 2024 16:03

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Turkey was the classic "success" story

1. Wall street banks loan massive amounts of money
2. Money is used to pump up things like real estate construction sprees
3. Eventually for various reasons the above magic it can only go up speculation doesn't last
4. In the Turk's case they are now holding $225 billion in debt originally denominated in much stronger foreign currencies.

# ? Aug 18, 2018 18:15

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