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Volkerball posted:Putin and Assad promised to recognize a demilitarized zone in this, the Syrian civil war? I am undone. Establishing one jointly policed by Russian and Turkish forces is a bit more serious than the rhetorical ones we've seen in the past, but okay dude.
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Sep 17, 2018 18:19
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Sinteres posted:Establishing one jointly policed by Russian and Turkish forces is a bit more serious than the rhetorical ones we've seen in the past, but okay dude. The devil is always in the details and implementation. In this case, both Russia and Turkey look good just from announcing this. Russia looks rational and diplomatic, and Turkey looks like they played with the big boys and saved Idlib. Idk why anyone would take any deal like this at face value after all these years.
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Sep 17, 2018 18:26
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Volkerball posted:The devil is always in the details and implementation. In this case, both Russia and Turkey look good just from announcing this. Russia looks rational and diplomatic, and Turkey looks like they played with the big boys and saved Idlib. Idk why anyone would take any deal like this at face value after all these years. So the invasion is still on then?
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Sep 17, 2018 18:29
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LeoMarr posted:So the invasion is still on then? It's happening right now
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Sep 17, 2018 18:30
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Sinteres posted:Putin and Erdogan just announced the creation of a 15km buffer zone in Idlib, to be administered by Turkish and Russian forces, and Erdogan made a point of talking about the need to focus on terror groups (the YPG) in the country's northeast, which is obviously a point of agreement between the two countries now that the US is using the YPG to indefinitely split the country. Looking forward to Volkerball's post about how Assad doesn't care what Turkey thinks and the invasion is starting any day now, compelling Russia to fully back it. How does this actually happen on the ground? I know there's all the stuff about HTS being puppetmastered by Turkey, but I thought that was just a dumb conspiracy theory, in that they're controlled by Turkey in the same way that the Mujahideen in Afghanistan were controlled by the US? (i.e. not really). Otherwise how is Turkey going to prevent them from lobbing drone bombs at Latakia? LiveUAmap is listing several explosions in Latakia and Homs in the past couple hours, but I guess that could be Israel and not HTS.
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Sep 17, 2018 20:33
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Are there any details on this buffer zone? I assume that this will be a chunk of the Idlib pocket, 15km deep starting from SAA controlled territory. fake edit: ha, https://syria.liveuamap.com/ already has a line drawn on their site showing some of these lines
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Sep 17, 2018 20:36
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Saladman posted:How does this actually happen on the ground? I know there's all the stuff about HTS being puppetmastered by Turkey, but I thought that was just a dumb conspiracy theory, in that they're controlled by Turkey in the same way that the Mujahideen in Afghanistan were controlled by the US? (i.e. not really). Otherwise how is Turkey going to prevent them from lobbing drone bombs at Latakia? HTS isn't controlled by Turkey, though they were provided material support at an earlier phase in the civil war. There may be provisions making it Turkey's responsibility to start clearing those guys out sooner or later, certainly if they're present in the buffer zones, but I don't think they're giving up their positions in the province without being rooted out by someone. Supposedly the missiles are coming from the sea, which would seem to point to Israel. Guess they're not thrilled about peace breaking out.
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Sep 17, 2018 20:58
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Sinteres posted:Putin and Erdogan just announced the creation of a 15km buffer zone in Idlib, to be administered by Turkish and Russian forces, and Erdogan made a point of talking about the need to focus on terror groups (the YPG) in the country's northeast, which is obviously a point of agreement between the two countries now that the US is using the YPG to indefinitely split the country. Looking forward to Volkerball's post about how Assad doesn't care what Turkey thinks and the invasion is starting any day now, compelling Russia to fully back it. The YPG already split Syria and US support is something they will continue to use to maintain that split as Assad reaches a point where he could conceivably start up a new major front. They've been on Assad's (and thus Russia's) list since the moment they became independent.
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Sep 17, 2018 22:25
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Warbadger posted:The YPG already split Syria and US support is something they will continue to use to maintain that split as Assad reaches a point where he could conceivably start up a new major front. They've been on Assad's (and thus Russia's) list since the moment they became independent. They were less of a priority when it looked like the US might withdraw and the YPG was tentatively negotiating with the regime about what a post-American Syria might look like. Obviously it looks like the US has decided to double down on remaining, which makes the YPG a bigger problem. As pro-rebel, anti-YPG posters liked to point out, they coordinated actions with Russia and the regime against rebel groups at times. Now that the number of remaining opponents has fallen, Afrin is no longer Kurdish territory depending on the good will of Russia and the regime, and the US seems to be applying some amount of pressure on the Kurds to stop hedging their bets, relations are probably worse than they've been at any (extended) period in the war.
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Sep 17, 2018 22:40
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What are the rebel's end game plans here for Idlib? They've lost every major battle in the last two years and its obvious the West is not going to invade Syria to help them. Is some sort of brokered peace agreement/surrender out of the question? Or had Idlib been in rebel hands so long no that anyone in the city will immediately be arrested or disappeared? The outcome looks to be the same in any case, but can thousands of lives be saved by not having a last stand?
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Sep 17, 2018 23:12
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Sinteres posted:They were less of a priority when it looked like the US might withdraw and the YPG was tentatively negotiating with the regime about what a post-American Syria might look like. Obviously it looks like the US has decided to double down on remaining, which makes the YPG a bigger problem. As pro-rebel, anti-YPG posters liked to point out, they coordinated actions with Russia and the regime against rebel groups at times. Now that the number of remaining opponents has fallen, Afrin is no longer Kurdish territory depending on the good will of Russia and the regime, and the US seems to be applying some amount of pressure on the Kurds to stop hedging their bets, relations are probably worse than they've been at any (extended) period in the war. They were less of a priority before the number of remaining opponents fell and major fronts came to a close - Assad's list has become shorter and priorities have changed accordingly. The Kurds have never made substantial diplomatic progress with Assad's government - limited cooperation against common foes toward mutually advantageous ends does not really demonstrate any willingness to coexist. They have been completely aware of the fact that no substantial negotiations toward independence or self governance have been or likely would be achieved (or honored) and that their position for negotiations was going to evaporate as Assad's position strengthened. They will be offered chances to return to the fold and submit to Assad's authority as they have in the past. Anything past that tends to be denied due to the fact that when the international help goes away it will be both easier and safer for Assad to just kill all resistance and force his own terms, like he has with everyone else he found himself in a position to do so. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 23:51 on Sep 17, 2018 |
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Sep 17, 2018 23:49
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Warbadger posted:They will be offered chances to return to the fold and submit to Assad's authority as they have in the past. Anything past that tends to be denied due to the fact that when the international help goes away it will be both easier and safer for Assad to just kill all resistance and force his own terms, like he has with everyone else he found himself in a position to do so. If I were a betting man, I'd say at least some in the YPG probably wish they'd surrendered Afrin to the regime when they had the chance, and if the US withdrew they may find that they prefer negotiation with the regime to conquest by the Turks. Assad isn't any nicer or better than Erdogan of course, but he has less of a specific animus against the Kurds as a people, and would be less likely to actively seek to change the demographic makeup of Kurdish territories. It's true that reconciliation agreements with the regime haven't been fully honored, but the groups that have reconciled with the regime have seemed to fare better than those which had to be conquered. Obviously any reasonable group would prefer to do neither if given the option, and the leadership of the YPG may have nowhere to flee, so as long as they do have outside support the YPG is likely to welcome that assistance in maintaining their independence, but if the US ever does wander off I think the Kurds of Rojava would be better off reconciling than being Afrin 2.
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Sep 18, 2018 00:49
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Russians are not going to like this: https://twitter.com/miladvisor/status/1041826511651782656 https://twitter.com/rabrowne75/status/1041829666565308416
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Sep 18, 2018 01:12
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Guess we can't ever say the Assad regime never did anything good for anyone.
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Sep 18, 2018 01:19
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Somebody shared this on Facebook: Press release
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Sep 18, 2018 01:23
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Absurd Alhazred posted:Russians are not going to like this: Holy poo poo. Were the French targeting the same area as the Israelis? pro starcraft loser fucked around with this message at 01:51 on Sep 18, 2018 |
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Sep 18, 2018 01:44
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Just when you thought the war was over, they pull you back in!
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Sep 18, 2018 01:46
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Absurd Alhazred posted:Russians are not going to like this: Russia is already throwing out blame on basically everyone in the region except Assad, so I'm guessing the Russian government doesn't really care about it. Maybe a bit embarrassing. The only surprise to me is the implication that a French ship mayyybe did it in that Tweet, rather than blaming the US. Many Russian people probably will be upset about it, hence the disinformation. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 02:03 on Sep 18, 2018 |
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Sep 18, 2018 01:50
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Sinteres posted:If I were a betting man, I'd say at least some in the YPG probably wish they'd surrendered Afrin to the regime when they had the chance, and if the US withdrew they may find that they prefer negotiation with the regime to conquest by the Turks. Assad isn't any nicer or better than Erdogan of course, but he has less of a specific animus against the Kurds as a people, and would be less likely to actively seek to change the demographic makeup of Kurdish territories. It's true that reconciliation agreements with the regime haven't been fully honored, but the groups that have reconciled with the regime have seemed to fare better than those which had to be conquered. Obviously any reasonable group would prefer to do neither if given the option, and the leadership of the YPG may have nowhere to flee, so as long as they do have outside support the YPG is likely to welcome that assistance in maintaining their independence, but if the US ever does wander off I think the Kurds of Rojava would be better off reconciling than being Afrin 2. The YPG has been fighting for independence from what it considers oppressive lovely governments since long before this war started. They're not going to give up on the only chance they've ever had to actually get independence just so they maybe get treated a bit less less lovely than some other hated groups. It's also a bit early to talk about how "reconciled" groups turn out, because I'm guessing there is going to be some major score settling when the war ends. If the Kurds manage to secure lasting support and maybe patch up the relationship with Iraq (which is probably doable provided nobody mentions chopping off a part of Iraq) they might actually succeed. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 02:01 on Sep 18, 2018 |
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Sep 18, 2018 01:58
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Friendly fire? https://twitter.com/sam_vinograd/status/1041862539150274561
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Sep 18, 2018 02:34
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Warbadger posted:The YPG has been fighting for independence from what it considers oppressive lovely governments since long before this war started. They're not going to give up on the only chance they've ever had to actually get independence just so they maybe get treated a bit less less lovely than some other hated groups. It's also a bit early to talk about how "reconciled" groups turn out, because I'm guessing there is going to be some major score settling when the war ends. I'd like for some version of Kurdistan to exist, though ideally one with actual elections instead of another dictatorship with the YPG arresting its political opposition forever (wartime necessity can't be an excuse for rooting out all opposition forever). That said, there's no way in the world Iraq is going to be friendly to any separatist Kurdish region, and thinking they could be seems as naive as the Iraqi Kurds who thought their business ties with Turkey meant Turkey would condone their independence. Unless there are dramatic changes in the region that upend all conventional logic on the matter, Rojava exists only as long as the US guarantees their existence by maintaining a frozen conflict through occupation, and if that guarantee ever disappears, they'll either be absorbed back into the Syrian state (one way or another), or Turkey will occupy their land and displace many Kurds so key territories can be resettled by refugees. They don't have to like the regime to think it's the lesser poison for them specifically if it comes to that.
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Sep 18, 2018 02:37
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Sinteres posted:I'd like for some version of Kurdistan to exist, though ideally one with actual elections instead of another dictatorship with the YPG arresting its political opposition forever (wartime necessity can't be an excuse for rooting out all opposition forever). That said, there's no way in the world Iraq is going to be friendly to any separatist Kurdish region, and thinking they could be seems as naive as the Iraqi Kurds who thought their business ties with Turkey meant Turkey would condone their independence. Unless there are dramatic changes in the region that upend all conventional logic on the matter, Rojava exists only as long as the US guarantees their existence by maintaining a frozen conflict through occupation, and if that guarantee ever disappears, they'll either be absorbed back into the Syrian state (one way or another), or Turkey will occupy their land and displace many Kurds so key territories can be resettled by refugees. They don't have to like the regime to think it's the lesser poison for them specifically if it comes to that. The YPG is specifically composed of people willing to sign up to fight a lovely, exploitative government for independence. They are not all thinking about how great it would be to make peace with the literal fascist genocidal dictatorship who maybe won't pogrom them too hard so that they can avoid fighting it. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 02:45 on Sep 18, 2018 |
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Sep 18, 2018 02:43
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The real question at this point if the interests of the West are better served with a semi-independent YPG state or under Turkish occupation in order to put pressure on Damascus and Tehran. (I doubt any the factions will have free and fair elections including the YPG. The desperation of war doesn't make such allowances usually.)
Ardennes fucked around with this message at 02:50 on Sep 18, 2018 |
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Sep 18, 2018 02:43
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There is no way Turkey will allow a YPG state to exist, regardless of its level of independence.
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Sep 18, 2018 02:49
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enraged_camel posted:There is no way Turkey will allow a YPG state to exist, regardless of its level of independence. One more or less exists right now, the question is really less up to Turkey but other actors. It probably also depends on Turkey's broader relationship with the West.
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Sep 18, 2018 02:51
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Volkerball exits the thread as his logic is kicked in the teeth Looks like another plane shot down in syria. Russian. Possibly Sya AA friendly fire. Many reports coming out. Russia will blame israel since the attack took place during an israeli bombING US exacts bombing sorties over Hajin while sdf pushes southernmost isis towns. Trying to get cap their side of the euphrates asap otherwise regime can beachhead accross the euphrates by taking isis territory. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 03:02 on Sep 18, 2018 |
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Sep 18, 2018 02:57
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Warbadger posted:The YPG is specifically composed of people willing to sign up to fight a lovely, exploitative government for independence. They are not all thinking about how great it would be to make peace with the literal fascist genocidal dictatorship who maybe won't pogrom them too hard so that they can avoid fighting it. People in no win situations have a tendency to be more pragmatic than you might expect. Not all of the time, since there are heroic/tragic last stands in which people valiantly fight to the last, but bravado often has a way of fading when all hope is lost. If even ISIS fighters negotiate surrenders and transfers from time to time, I have a hard time imagining the YPG absolutely never would. I'm not saying nobody would end up hiding out in the mountains/desert/whatever, as there are still fighters waging a guerilla campaign in Afrin, but without US support I don't think the YPG would hold out until every Kurdish city became a bombed out ruin, and if they did they'd be idiots who are careless of the civilian toll that would inflict. Let's hope it doesn't come to that! FWIW I think you're being a bit too starry eyed about how the YPG would never stoop so low as to consort with tyrants given that the PKK was invited to Syria and allowed to set up training camps by Assad's dad, and they only ended up at cross purposes when Turkey threatened to invade over it, convincing the elder Assad to purge them. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 03:21 on Sep 18, 2018 |
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Sep 18, 2018 03:14
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pro starcraft loser posted:What are the rebel's end game plans here for Idlib? They've lost every major battle in the last two years and its obvious the West is not going to invade Syria to help them. What would you do if your entire family and the neighborhood you grew up in had been killed by a fascist government and your name was on a list that would get you immediately sent to a concentration camp the moment you surrendered?
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Sep 18, 2018 05:19
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Sergg posted:What would you do if your entire family and the neighborhood you grew up in had been killed by a fascist government and your name was on a list that would get you immediately sent to a concentration camp the moment you surrendered? Well to be fair signing up for al-qaeda would still be pretty far down the list.
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Sep 18, 2018 06:06
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so that means I can be a cheapskate and post about posting instead of having some wit or spending any more on comedy avs for people. Which I'm also incapable of. Comedy.
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Retarded Goatee posted:Well to be fair signing up for al-qaeda would still be pretty far down the list. Either die on your feet or die on your knees. Pick 1. Names dont matter factions dont matter (USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST)
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Sep 18, 2018 06:33
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This didn't age very well. 
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Sep 18, 2018 06:45
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I'm curious as to what the rules of war say about hiding your military vehicles behind neutral vehicles so they don't get shot at. Like if a country put its tanks around a Red Cross van that was going to territory they wanted to attack.
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Sep 18, 2018 12:49
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Objurium posted:This didn't age very well. It didn't age well before it was even typed up. The Israelis have been bombing Syria, including periodic SEAD, with a near perfect safety record for a long time. But when your foreign intervention sugar daddy tells you to run some low effort adverts for them, you do it. qkkl posted:I'm curious as to what the rules of war say about hiding your military vehicles behind neutral vehicles so they don't get shot at. Like if a country put its tanks around a Red Cross van that was going to territory they wanted to attack. About the same thing as they say about disregarding the chore of identifying targets while lobbing Buks at whatever happens to be in the air. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 13:00 on Sep 18, 2018 |
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Sep 18, 2018 12:50
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Israel says their planes were already back in Israeli airspace before the missile that took down the Russian plane was fired, and that the Russian plane wasn't in the area at the time they struck. Obviously they have good reason to downplay their responsibility, and they were indisputably the catalyst for the accident regardless, but the 'Israeli planes were hiding behind the Russian plane' narrative could just as easily be false. In other news, it looks like this is one of the major promises made by Turkey to secure the cease fire: https://twitter.com/NorthernStork/status/1042015922939199488
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Sep 18, 2018 12:58
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Sinteres posted:Israel says their planes were already back in Israeli airspace before the missile that took down the Russian plane was fired, and that the Russian plane wasn't in the area at the time they struck. Obviously they have good reason to downplay their responsibility, and they were indisputably the catalyst for the accident regardless, but the 'Israeli planes were hiding behind the Russian plane' narrative could just as easily be false. Interesting that they felt so strongly about denying being involved in that aspect of it that they admitted to the strike itself. It usually takes them a while, if they do so at all. Edit: https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1042014657077301250 (thread) Absurd Alhazred fucked around with this message at 13:06 on Sep 18, 2018 |
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Sep 18, 2018 13:02
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Absurd Alhazred posted:Interesting that they felt so strongly about denying being involved in that aspect of it that they admitted to the strike itself. It usually takes them a while, if they do so at all. Being involved, even indirectly, in downing a Russian plane is a good reason to scramble to defend yourself.
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Sep 18, 2018 13:43
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Putin seems to be taking a reasonable approach here: https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1042039112000327681 I still expect him to put some degree of pressure on Israel behind the scenes to limit strikes that could affect Russian interests in Syria though. Edit: https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1042045967992844289 Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 15:33 on Sep 18, 2018 |
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Sep 18, 2018 14:36
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https://twitter.com/IraqiGovt/status/1042027714310488064quote:Following extensive repairs due to damage inflicted by Daesh, Mosul's Natural History Museum is once again open to the public. The @IraqiGovt is safeguarding and enhancing our educational and cultural institutions to bring back life and normality to all liberated areas
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Sep 18, 2018 20:58
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https://twitter.com/aaronstein1/status/1042142349890150401?s=19 Lol at 5 and 6. So the opposition groups are to retreat several miles within a few weeks and allow the regime free access to major roads, and the regime and Russia can still bomb the area because terrorists are exempt. In the meantime, what will become the battlefront is yet to be negotiated. This is gonna go very smoothly.
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Sep 18, 2018 22:14
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Sergg posted:What would you do if your entire family and the neighborhood you grew up in had been killed by a fascist government and your name was on a list that would get you immediately sent to a concentration camp the moment you surrendered? Sounds like a brokered agreement is under way. Which is good, since any last stand would probably result in thousands more killed. Absurd Alhazred posted:Friendly fire? I have no source for this but I heard it may have been Israel using Russian transponder signals to get close for the attack.
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Sep 18, 2018 23:20
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