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ChairMaster posted:I'm not criticizing the IPCC, I'm making fun of the people who take every opportunity they can to pretend like everything is okay, including completely ignoring the fact that every scientific report on every subject relating to climate change looks worse and worse every few years, but these people refuse to see the pattern and insist that everything is going to be okay. I think he was just joking mate, I got what you meant & I'm dumb.
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# ? Oct 7, 2018 22:56 |
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# ? May 15, 2024 16:28 |
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ChairMaster posted:I'm not criticizing the IPCC, I'm making fun of the people who take every opportunity they can to pretend like everything is okay, including completely ignoring the fact that every scientific report on every subject relating to climate change looks worse and worse every few years, but these people refuse to see the pattern and insist that everything is going to be okay. Everything isn't going to be "okay", billions and trillions of dollars are going to be wasted and a lot of people are going to die. But you also are going to have to still go to work 5 years from now and that guy you hate isn't going to get his ironic comeuppance any time soon or whatever. The constant pattern of dismissing the IPCC sucks and dismissing it as "they will just change it in 5 years anyway, it's not something we should listen to" is harmful if you are saying it because you are disappointed it was too high or not high enough. The current IPCC predicted range is still within the range of the very first report they did, just narrowed down to smaller and more well supported ranges, disappointing people rooting for 1C and people rooting for 10C equally.
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# ? Oct 7, 2018 23:04 |
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Trump's friend Jair Bolsonaro, who has openly run on a fascist platform, appears to be winning the Brazilian elections today. How much protection is the Amazon going to lose?
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# ? Oct 7, 2018 23:28 |
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https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1048761232109461506
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 00:36 |
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Time to start buying future tropical beachfront property in Canada and Norway.
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 02:02 |
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Enjoy autumn and winter while they last. If you like crisp autumn weather, chilly wintry weather, snow, etc. cherish them as much as you can. Very soon there won't be any more fall or winter. Soon it'll be hot well into November, and it'll never get below freezing even in january. Reverse all of this if you live in southern hemisphere. Point is, if you happen to like chilly autumn weather or snowy, cold winter weather...too bad. This is the least of humanity's worries, of course. It's very first world problems. But it's still a sad thought. Even simple pleasures are going away.
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 02:15 |
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NYT article on the new IPCC report:NYT posted:Major Climate Report Describes a Strong Risk of Crisis as Early as 2040 From the report "Summary for Policymakers", some example CO2 emission pathways consistent with max 1.5C warming (or close) by 2100: 2025 is likely the latest point world leader's can pretend the Paris Agreement 1.5C is achievable even only in principle, as deferring action any later means the required negative emissions capacity becomes completely absurd.
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 03:34 |
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quote:Avoiding the most serious damage requires transforming the world economy within just a few years, said the authors, who estimate that the damage would come at a cost of $54 trillion. But while they conclude that it is technically possible to achieve the rapid changes required to avoid 2.7 degrees of warming, they concede that it may be politically unlikely. Ahahaha that's almost exactly what I've been saying in this thread for years.
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 03:40 |
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Yeah we're boned Avoiding the collapse of civilization is expensive liberal nonsense
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 03:53 |
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Blue Star posted:Enjoy autumn and winter while they last. If you like crisp autumn weather, chilly wintry weather, snow, etc. cherish them as much as you can. Very soon there won't be any more fall or winter. Soon it'll be hot well into November, and it'll never get below freezing even in january. Reverse all of this if you live in southern hemisphere. Point is, if you happen to like chilly autumn weather or snowy, cold winter weather...too bad. It's garbage that if someone came in claiming global warming was fake everyone would (rightfully) jump on them, but posts like this go perfectly unchallenged. The IPCC is putting reports out right this second, but everyone just throws actual science in the trash and decides global warming is whatever their heart would wish and dream it is.
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 05:11 |
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I just assumed he was having a moment and was talking about where he lived.
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 05:19 |
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Doesn't warmer global temperatures lead to a weakened jet stream in the winter and cause polar vortex hell winters like we got a couple years ago?
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 05:24 |
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Something like that, there’s a reason it’s called climate change over global warming.
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 05:28 |
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:It's garbage that if someone came in claiming global warming was fake everyone would (rightfully) jump on them, but posts like this go perfectly unchallenged. The IPCC is putting reports out right this second, but everyone just throws actual science in the trash and decides global warming is whatever their heart would wish and dream it is.
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 05:32 |
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Blue Star posted:Enjoy autumn and winter while they last. If you like crisp autumn weather, chilly wintry weather, snow, etc. cherish them as much as you can. I picked pumpkins in 90 degree swelter today in Illinois, same as last year. I'd say the time to cherish is past.
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 05:41 |
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look everything is gonna be fine
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 05:48 |
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Blue Star posted:Enjoy autumn and winter while they last. If you like crisp autumn weather, chilly wintry weather, snow, etc. cherish them as much as you can. Very soon there won't be any more fall or winter. Soon it'll be hot well into November, and it'll never get below freezing even in january. Reverse all of this if you live in southern hemisphere. Point is, if you happen to like chilly autumn weather or snowy, cold winter weather...too bad. We bought a new house Spring of 2017 and since this one was on a bit of a slope with a retaining wall, I figured when it snows I could snowboard down and jump off the wall. Thought it'd be a fun idea so I built a 10' rail to slide on before the wall, but ended up not getting more than an inch of snow at a time last year, despite a ridiculously cold month from Dec to Jan. This is North of D.C. so snow in winter is always hit or miss, but it's sad to think my kid will grow up with either no snow or some crazy 2' snow storm like we seem to randomly get. Definitely first world problem. But hey, if it doesn't get cold then I won't need to expel energy heating the house as much and that'll fix things for sure!
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 06:05 |
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:It's garbage that if someone came in claiming global warming was fake everyone would (rightfully) jump on them, but posts like this go perfectly unchallenged. The IPCC is putting reports out right this second, but everyone just throws actual science in the trash and decides global warming is whatever their heart would wish and dream it is. It's such a fundamentally dumb post that I think most people don't even want to engage with it and assume someone else will. I mean I kinda looked at it when I saw it and thought "ugh, what a stupid fuckin post, I'm not going to bother". If anyone needs the explanation, climate change was called "global warming" because the overall pattern of it is that worldwide average temperatures go up, but on a smaller scale than worldwide we are likely to be seeing more extreme weather in both directions depending on the area. This can be easily illustrated by record-setting temperatures all over the world and weather patterns that are unprecedented in the last two or three hundred years that we've been keeping track. It's also why the island I live on is getting more and more snow every year that the cities are not equipped to handle due to the fact that 20 years ago we got maybe a few days of snow every year and now get at least a couple weeks. Maybe we need a new OP with the very basics of this poo poo, since there's a new IPCC report it's as good a time as any.
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 07:30 |
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:It's you, you are the denialist. IPCC's SR15 put us on a 3-4C range under current Paris Accord commitments. You at least get a participation trophy for your guess though. Also you used a chart from AR4 not AR5. Easy mistake when you have literally no idea what you're talking about.
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 07:59 |
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Look if there's no inbetween working 9-5 and mad max, driving to work without horrible blizzards is a net postive
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 08:21 |
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There's a lot of black & white thinking going on in this thread. This is not directed at any one individual, so if you are to respond to this please do not respond as if this is a personal attack directed at you. I feel it's important for anyone who has been following this thread to understand that this a common symptom of underlying, unaddressed depression. Specifically, what is termed Splitting. Splitting (psychology) #Depression quote:In depression, exaggerated all-or-nothing thinking can form a self-reinforcing cycle: these thoughts might be called emotional amplifiers because, as they go around and around, they become more intense. Typical all-or-nothing thoughts: Obviously climate change is a huge problem, and there is glaringly obvious lack of action on humanity's part to address this. And you may be powerless to enact the sweeping, dictatorial actions required to avoid predicted doom. But thinking this, and feeling miserable/misanthropic and not even having the imagination for how this threat could be resolved or addressed is not helpful, both for your metal health and society. I wrote a post about this idea I've been refining over and over again, barely tangentially connected to the thread's topic but it probably has a place in this thread. It's rambley, kind of contextual, and maybe is going over something simple you already know... but I'll link to it and post the text of it below anyway: The Retail Collapse of 2017: Murdered by Amazonians (page 248) im depressed lol posted:the concept of a low-information consumer is something i had not been exposed to, and fits very well into what i am trying to express. thank you for your response and info. im depressed lol posted:just to address this, i don't believe average jane is walking around thinking 'oh we'll just print more environment'. what i think is happening is a sort of learned helplessness/delegation to authority that allows the average person to just assume their leaders are taking care of it. That bit of the thread, pages back and ahead have some pretty interesting discussion regarding a kind of 'meta' systems-thinking approach to problems as large as this. Specifically a poster named BrandonKP; this post I hope this comes off not as a denial of anyone's right to feel miserable about the future. My intent is to provide someone... anyone reading this a way to possibly... butterfly-effect a solution to this. Or maybe just to get people motivated instead of being despaired over visions of a future-venus-hell-scape. Maybe get some healthcare re-form going in your country to provide free or reduced cost mental health therapy, which could address the underlying issues facing the whole of society's learned-helplessness regarding this? Whether it's depression, or the general public's avoidance of climate change (e.g. avoiding the topic so they don't themselves get depressed)... maybe we could put our energy into *addressing that. im depressed lol fucked around with this message at 16:05 on Oct 8, 2018 |
# ? Oct 8, 2018 16:00 |
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Banana Man posted:Look if there's no inbetween working 9-5 and mad max, driving to work without horrible blizzards is a net postive Workin' 9 to 5, warboy way to make a livin'
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 16:01 |
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You might be interested in the last chapter of the Michael Lewis book that just came out, The Fifth Risk. While the book largely focuses on the Trump administration's lack of effort to run (or even understand) the government it unexpectedly found itself in charge of and the consequences of that, the chapter itself talks about the effort by NOAA to get more people to take immediate action about the possibility of being caught in a tornado. Doing something as simple as changing the terminology from "tornado warning" to "tornado emergency" may have increased the percentage of people who took preventative action, leading to fewer per-capita fatalities.
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 16:53 |
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Depression or large scale despair are not the reasons that climate change is going to destroy global human society. There are a lot of reasons why nobody is ever going to spend the money needed to try and avert catastrophe, but it's not because the average person is too sad and hopeless to do anything about it, it's because the people with all the money in the world don't give a poo poo, and also happen to be the ones who control the world right now. If you really want to change that the answer is not therapy, it's revolution, and we all know perfectly well that that's never going to happen. Therapy is a perfectly fine answer for people like AceofFlames who's lives are being ruined by anxiety and depression over the state of the world, and I encourage anyone else like him to find help, but we've got such a comically small window of time to get such a huge amount of things done that it's pretty much farcical to try and say that it's politically possible in any way, much less with a vague and long-term strategy like "help everyone get mentally healthier and then eventually they'll be able to face the future with a positive outlook and that'll somehow give them a viable candidate to support in every part of the world that will actually give a poo poo about climate change". ChairMaster fucked around with this message at 17:06 on Oct 8, 2018 |
# ? Oct 8, 2018 17:02 |
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An interesting table from the new SR15 IPCC report section 2.2 "Geophysical relationships and constraints" summarizing the carbon budget for 1.5C/2C warming and key uncertainties: Everyone's favorite civilization-endangering feedback, thawing permafrost, is included! Under "Additional Earth-system feedbacks" it's roughly estimated to reduce the carbon budget for any given temperature target by ~100Gt assuming ~1.5-2C warming. The text emphasizes this effect really isn't modeled: IPCC posted:The reduced complexity climate models employed in this assessment do not take into account permafrost or non-CO2 Earth-system feedbacks, although the MAGICC model has a permafrost module that can be enabled. Taking the current climate and Earth-system feedbacks understanding together, there is a possibility that these models would underestimate the longer-term future temperature response to stringent emission pathways (Section 2.2.2). Text related to the carbon budget from the executive summary: IPCC posted:Cumulative CO2 emissions are kept within a budget by reducing global annual CO2 emissions to netzero. This assessment suggests a remaining budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C with a two-thirds chance of about 550 GtCO2, and of about 750 GtCO2 for an even chance (medium confidence). The remaining carbon budget is defined here as cumulative CO2 emissions from the start of 2018 until the time of net-zero global emissions. Remaining budgets applicable to 2100, would approximately be 100 GtCO2 lower than this to account for permafrost thawing and potential methane release from wetlands in the future. These estimates come with an additional geophysical uncertainty of at least ±50%, related to non-CO2 response and TCRE distribution. In addition, they can vary by ±250 GtCO2 depending on non-CO2 mitigation strategies as found in available pathways. {2.2.2, 2.6.1} One striking feature the table makes clear is the relatively large size of the uncertainties wrt the actual carbon budget values. The report states this clearly: IPCC posted:The uncertainties presented in Table 2.2 cannot be formally combined, but current understanding of the assessed geophysical uncertainties suggests at least a ±50% possible variation for remaining carbon budgets for 1.5°C-consistent pathways. When put in the context of year-2017 CO2 emissions (about 41 GtCO2 yr-1) (Le Quéré et al., 2018), a remaining carbon budget of 750 GtCO2 (550 GtCO2) suggests meeting net zero global CO2 emissions in about 35 years (25 years) following a linear decline starting from 2018 (rounded to the nearest five years), with a variation of ±15–20 years due to the above mentioned geophysical uncertainties (high confidence).
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 17:11 |
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Hello Sailor posted:You might be interested in the last chapter of the Michael Lewis book that just came out, The Fifth Risk. While the book largely focuses on the Trump administration's lack of effort to run (or even understand) the government it unexpectedly found itself in charge of and the consequences of that, the chapter itself talks about the effort by NOAA to get more people to take immediate action about the possibility of being caught in a tornado. Doing something as simple as changing the terminology from "tornado warning" to "tornado emergency" may have increased the percentage of people who took preventative action, leading to fewer per-capita fatalities. I just read a few reviews/excerpts and I feel sick to my stomach. Thank you for this reality check. Edit: just the cover-art alone, an American flag of Jenga blocks, being disassembled incompetently alone is provocative enough. but jesus christ the 1% visible... it's essentially Ted Kaczynski's ship of fools in political thriller format. Edit 2: oh and in case it wasn't obvious thank you for suggesting that specific chapter, as concepts like that deal directly with what my rambley post is about. im depressed lol fucked around with this message at 17:29 on Oct 8, 2018 |
# ? Oct 8, 2018 17:13 |
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Ooof, 2040 is rough. That definitely seals the deal on kids for me and my partner. Not that we were leaning towards them anyway, but hell no I'm not bringing a child into this world that will turn 20 years old just in time to see the worst start. Fuckin It's gonna be a wild ride, interesting times ahead.
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 17:13 |
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we are living inside the apocalypse dudes
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 17:25 |
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ChairMaster posted:"help everyone get mentally healthier and then eventually they'll be able to face the future with a positive outlook and that'll somehow give them a viable candidate to support in every part of the world that will actually give a poo poo about climate change". mental health advocacy alone is totally not the only solution. what i'm really trying to dig at here is communication and message. the mental* health angle is just one aspect of it, and the meat of my post (the quoted portion) is more akin to what Hello Sailor's mentions: Hello Sailor posted:the effort by NOAA to get more people to take immediate action about the possibility of being caught in a tornado. Doing something as simple as changing the terminology from "tornado warning" to "tornado emergency" may have increased the percentage of people who took preventative action, leading to fewer per-capita fatalities. my intent isn't to just say 'come on guys, cheer up!'. it's to expand discourse beyond "well we can't take over the industrial capacity of the planet so let's be sad and lament that only we're the only ones smart enough to realize this problem". obviously a pithy summation of attitudes in this thread. but just this act of conversation/discussion, and someone replying to say 'no, "im depressed lol", you're saying people need to change their thinking, which is loving impossible' is better than just regurgitating sadness endlessly over a dead future that hasn't happened yet. edit: metal* -> mental, although metal to meat is.... kind of cute im depressed lol fucked around with this message at 22:52 on Oct 8, 2018 |
# ? Oct 8, 2018 17:45 |
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there are also things suicidally depressed people can do to help ya know (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 17:47 |
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Would it be plausible to have a program where you trade in your gas car for an electric car? Is that something that could be subsidized or incentivized by the government?
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 17:52 |
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Doorknob Slobber posted:there are also things suicidally depressed people can do to help ya know uh n/m
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 17:53 |
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Doorknob Slobber posted:we are living inside the apocalypse dudes Feels good man. By which I mean the 80 degree weather in October. It's pleasant. I'm just glad the BBC and David Attenborough are doing all these wonderful nature documentaries before things get any worse. A lot of these species just aren't going to be around when my kid grows up. Having a bunch of species go extinct is terrible for the ecosystem, but at least in terms of witness them, future generations can still enjoy them as much as I ever did, since actually flying to Africa to take a photo of an animal is pretty unethical.
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 17:53 |
Burt Buckle posted:Would it be plausible to have a program where you trade in your gas car for an electric car? Is that something that could be subsidized or incentivized by the government? Assuming you live in the US of A, there is a federal tax credit incentive for purchasing an electric car. You should call H&R block/another local tax dealer if you want more info. There may be additional incentives in your state, and the actual credit varies by model.
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 17:56 |
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Nocturtle posted:One striking feature the table makes clear is the relatively large size of the uncertainties wrt the actual carbon budget values. The report states this clearly: HahahahahahahahahahaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 18:39 |
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Polio Vax Scene posted:Assuming you live in the US of A, there is a federal tax credit incentive for purchasing an electric car. Some quick googling indicates that there is a federal tax credit up to $7,500 for new full electric and plug in hybrids. https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml https://www.energy.gov/eere/electricvehicles/electric-vehicles-tax-credits-and-other-incentives That's great if you have the means, are in the market to buy a new car, and live in an area that supports plug in electric cars but it also reinforces the point that under capitalism a lower carbon footprint is a luxury good. Edit. The Soviet Union was bad in that it was an undemocratic imperial power but I can't deny that a command economy is absolutely a structure that would be able to confront climate change. You just switch to building all electric vehicles and the infrastructure to support it while creating a schedule or mechanism where people turn in their old gasoline cars. Iron Twinkie fucked around with this message at 19:04 on Oct 8, 2018 |
# ? Oct 8, 2018 18:44 |
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Is there reason to expect apocalypse of any sort for countries with their relevant areas within temperate zones even in the worst plausible climate scenarios? Seems to me like we'd be seeing something more like the decline of historical empires: the average person of each generation usually having a worse standard of living at a given age than those of previous generations, periodic civil unrest becoming increasingly severe, dealing with mass migration from crisis areas to stabler areas whenever a severe crisis arises somewhere. Increasing militarism to fend off threats and quell unrest from both people within and people left to fend for themselves in areas worst hit. This, extending over a whole lot of generations so that it ends up being just routine for all of them. And the eventual fall far down the line caused by an unsustainable succession of small wars might mean long-term fragmentation and a new dark age (dark ages being far from some imaginary mad max scenario or descent into barbarism), or being absorbed into an ascendant empire that has adapted to the prevailing conditions in a way the declining empire never really could. Like, it doesn't seem like we would be the ones facing actual famine, we'd be the ones who are going to pay a progressively larger portion of our paychecks for basic necessities, with the fate of the poor being dependent on the economic&social policy regime. Countries that fall into the sort of chaos that allows millions to visibly die from lack aren't going to project force far away to bring down the fortress either, it's more like their rulers would seek protectors from more stable countries against internal rebellions as well as neighboring countries. It seems like the stably declining countries would seek benefit by engaging in proxy wars in chaotic regions, not apocalyptic total war against powerful neighbors. Of course a proxy war could go horribly wrong, causing everything to go down in some kind of contemporary Ragnarök, but the risk of that has existed since the 60's or something. This is what i was alluding to earlier (i hope it wasn't in some other thread) when i said that the people who have been tasked with preventing the catastrophe for the globe in general have good reason not to feel like it's an existential threat to themselves or the people they will know in their lifetimes. For them, a reasonable survival strategy might be to keep climbing the ladder of social power even if it means disregarding emissions, attempting to wait until the inverted malthusian catastrophe (the decline of the growth of agricultural production outpacing the decline of population growth) they cause has played out. There will be a plenty of habitable land left, all they have to do is ensure that their progeny is part of the high strata of the most economically and militarily powerful countries in the world and they won't really feel it hard personally, in proportional terms their share might even increase! At least that's how it tends to go in declining empires. And even if they currently live in a compromised area of the planet, a sufficient hoard of money guarantees citizenship in one of those countries: there are only ethical and sentimental reasons to pledge loyalty to the peoples of their home countries rather than the elites of the powerful countries. Ethical and sentimental reasons of course matter, but it should be safe to say that all people have their rational side as well as their irrational side, and it would be weird if even good people weren't hedging their bets, playing both sides. uncop fucked around with this message at 20:24 on Oct 8, 2018 |
# ? Oct 8, 2018 19:57 |
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look I'm not gonna tell you I actually read that whole wall of text, but I think your main point is: civilizations have declined before so that'll just happen again you would be right in a 1C world, in a 3C world it will happen much too fast. where we fall in-between is gonna be fun to find out!
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 20:39 |
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Iron Twinkie posted:That's great if you have the means, are in the market to buy a new car, and live in an area that supports plug in electric cars but it also reinforces the point that under capitalism a lower carbon footprint is a luxury good. birth control, apartments, bicycles and buses are in no way luxury goods.
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 20:42 |
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# ? May 15, 2024 16:28 |
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StabbinHobo posted:look I'm not gonna tell you I actually read that whole wall of text, but I think your main point is: civilizations have declined before so that'll just happen again lol, "in-between"
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# ? Oct 8, 2018 20:57 |