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So is this a victory for liberalism or the continued implosion of the left and the retrenchment of semi-permanent centrist conservative rule? Both?
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Oct 14, 2018 21:56
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These are exit polls right? Not actual counted numbers? If it's exit polls, I'd expect the real AfD number to be higher. More people vote nazi than actually want to admit it to a pollster.
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Oct 14, 2018 22:03
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System Metternich posted:[...] seeing as we also got less AfD votes than the rest of Bavaria [...] Considering that your Wahlbezirk has far less people in it than the rest of Bavaria that isn't really an achievement.
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Oct 14, 2018 22:08
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Ratzap posted:These are exit polls right? Not actual counted numbers? It's both, the results for most voting districts are already there and the broadcasters combine them with the existing exit polls. I guess that what we have now will be pretty close to the final result. Concerning the AfD, the polls preceding the vote were pretty good (with the exception of the Nazi-lovers at INSA, every pollster estimated them at 10-12%), while their polls for CSU and SPD turned out to be a bit wrong (if nothing changes dramatically while the last districts are being counted, that is): Now it's 3-4% more for the CSU than initially expected, while the SPD actually finished worse than its already abysmal prediction in polls by 2-4%. Dommolus Magnus posted:Considering that your Wahlbezirk has far less people in it than the rest of Bavaria that isn't really an achievement. By percentage, obviously
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Oct 14, 2018 22:13
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Ratzap posted:These are exit polls right? Not actual counted numbers? Exit polls are done anonymously though
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Oct 14, 2018 22:37
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 fine i'll post it myself ninja edit 
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Oct 15, 2018 01:34
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Sieht so aus als reicht es jetzt doch für eine 2er-Koalition aus CSU und FW. 
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Oct 15, 2018 06:20
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Randler posted:Sieht so aus als reicht es jetzt doch für eine 2er-Koalition aus CSU und FW. Wieso, hättest dir schon einen nuclear take für den Fall von Schwarz-Grün zurechtgelegt?  Prinzipiell wird eine CSU-FW-Koalition wohl vor allem den jetzigen Status Quo beibehalten: Nicht Abschaffung, sondern "Überarbeitung" des PAG, weiterhin eine eher restriktive Auslegung des Asylrechts bayerischerseits, Cannabis bleibt illegal (wobei das ja eh auf Bundesebene passieren müsste, oder?), keine dritte Startbahn in München, Ausbau und Förderung des ÖPNV, kostenlose Kitaplätze - zumindest, wenn alles nach den Freien Wählern geht. Was man aber imo auch nicht unterschätzen darf ist die konzeptionelle Heterogenität der FW. Aiwanger dürfte sich zwar durch diesen Wahlerfolg und die voraussichtliche Regierungsbeteiligung erstmal unangreifbar gemacht haben, aber er stand auch schonmal kurz vor der Entmachtung, und viele der eher rechtskonservativen Positionen der FW gehen wohl auf ihn zurück. unrelated edit: ein Dorf in meinem Landkreis hatte eine Wahlbeteiligung von 93,7% 
System Metternich fucked around with this message at 07:44 on Oct 15, 2018 |
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Oct 15, 2018 06:57
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I want cannabis for my uncle in the mountains who has Parkinson disease. Allegedly it helps a lot. Personally I don't like being high. But isn't CSU / FW still less than 50% of the vote? Do they just hope they'll always be able to drag along some stragglers from other parties?
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Oct 15, 2018 07:38
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Btw Aleida und Jan Assmann are really good looking people
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Oct 15, 2018 07:44
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Don't forget that percentages don't directly translate into mandates both due to a bunch of votes not being mirrored in the Landtag due to parties not making the 5% threshold as well as various quirks of the electoral system. By current calculations a CSU-FW coalition would have a comfortable majority with 85+27=112 seats in a parliament that's shaping up to be 205 strong.
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Oct 15, 2018 07:48
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Oct 15, 2018 08:56
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Oct 15, 2018 09:00
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Ich bin der Südpark Avatar.
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Oct 15, 2018 10:18
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Oct 15, 2018 10:33
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Really interesting! What's your source, looks like a Öffentlich-Rechtliche Grafik? I would really like to know many Neuwähler the CSU gained.
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Oct 15, 2018 10:40
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Mir verlangt es nach mehr toten Babyboomern. (The CSU's largest single loss of voters is "died")
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Oct 15, 2018 10:40
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Went 88% Hitler, lost 460k to Linksversiffung and still nothing to show for it but the Nazis getting in 3rs place. Art of the Wahlkampf 
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Oct 15, 2018 10:45
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AfD might try again to get rid of their superantisemite BaWü MdL Gedeon https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/alternative-fuer-deutschland-afd-will-gedeon-aus-partei-werfen/23187108.html They need the jewish Feigenblatt to keep being able to go yeah we're just worried about islamism, but from that restaurant attack in Chemnitz the besorgte Bürger apparently still hate jews e: same with gay people, wasn't there a gay islamophobe in the Netherlands? But I don't think the Storch Flügel is gonna be having any of that.
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Oct 15, 2018 10:48
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It seems really hard to get a job in Nürnberg. In my few years of work experience, I've been rejected by firms in Nürnberg twice, and outside Nürnberg only once, out of 2 Nürnberg job applications and easily 8+ non Nürnberg job applications. Why?System Metternich posted:Don't forget that percentages don't directly translate into mandates both due to a bunch of votes not being mirrored in the Landtag due to parties not making the 5% threshold as well as various quirks of the electoral system. By current calculations a CSU-FW coalition would have a comfortable majority with 85+27=112 seats in a parliament that's shaping up to be 205 strong. Thank you, that's what I had missed.
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Oct 15, 2018 10:52
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pidan posted:It seems really hard to get a job in Nürnberg. In my few years of work experience, I've been rejected by firms in Nürnberg twice, and outside Nürnberg only once, out of 2 Nürnberg job applications and easily 8+ non Nürnberg job applications. Why? 8 application is what a non-computertouching person sends out in a single day. It's not a representative sample. Nürnberg might be the easiest place to find a job and you wouldn't know from that tiny sample size
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Oct 15, 2018 10:59
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Lunar Suite posted:Mir verlangt es nach mehr toten Babyboomern. (The CSU's largest single loss of voters is "died") The Babyboomer-cohort(generation) in Germany starts in (depending whom you ask) 1955 or 1959, which means the oldest of them are not yet/just so in their early 60ies. The people currently nearing the end of their shelf-life are the Zwischenkriegsgeneration and Kriegskinder, so the last ones that received officially or inofficialy a völkische education. 
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Oct 15, 2018 11:11
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Torrannor posted:Really interesting! What's your source, looks like a Öffentlich-Rechtliche Grafik? I would really like to know many Neuwähler the CSU gained. You can find the interactive version here. According to that, about 90,000 Erstwähler (or 15% of that group altogether) voted CSU. 100,000 Erstwähler chose Grüne, and only about 3.3% of them went AfD, but the largest part at about 38% didn't vote at all. e: If you remove the Nichtwähler from the (potential) Erstwähler group, the results look like this:
e2: The article also contains a breakdown of the election results by other population groups like age, job and education. 22% of Bavarian workers voted AfD! 
System Metternich fucked around with this message at 11:26 on Oct 15, 2018 |
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Oct 15, 2018 11:15
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AfD got a third of their votes, roughly, from former CSU, Nichtwähler, and Andere-Wähler, respectively.
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Oct 15, 2018 11:25
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aphid_licker posted:AfD got a third of their votes, roughly, from former CSU, Nichtwähler, and Andere-Wähler, respectively. I don't suppose there's a further Aufschlüsselung for the Andere Wähler? Would be curious how many of those came from the assorted neonazi parties vs. generic protest parties.
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Oct 15, 2018 11:29
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Perestroika posted:I don't suppose there's a further Aufschlüsselung for the Andere Wähler? Would be curious how many of those came from the assorted neonazi parties vs. generic protest parties. Yeah I was curious about that too but nope. e: it would be easy to look at the numbers for the Andere parties in the official Wahlergebnis xlsx once it's out, but no dedicated Wanderung data in there ofc. e: okay this doesn't really elucidate much because it doesn't seem to track the numbers for small parties from 2013? https://www.landtagswahl2018.bayern.de/ergebnis_tabelle_990.html aphid_licker fucked around with this message at 11:41 on Oct 15, 2018 |
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Oct 15, 2018 11:36
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aphid_licker posted:Yeah I was curious about that too but nope. A quick look at the official (still vorläufig, but I doubt that there will be much change yet, if any) xlsx of both this election and the one before shows that almost 200,000 people voted NPD and Republikaner in 2013, neither of which participated in the 2018 election. I guess they make up most of the 190,000 Andere->AfD voters (together with former BüSo and Die Freiheit voters, I guess, but those didn't even reach 8,000 votes put together 5 years ago). e: It tracks the numbers, it's just that most of the small parties didn't take part in the 2013 election
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Oct 15, 2018 11:44
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System Metternich posted:A quick look at the official (still vorläufig, but I doubt that there will be much change yet, if any) xlsx of both this election and the one before shows that almost 200,000 people voted NPD and Republikaner in 2013, neither of which participated in the 2018 election. I guess they make up most of the 190,000 Andere->AfD voters (together with former BüSo and Die Freiheit voters, I guess, but those didn't even reach 8,000 votes put together 5 years ago). NPD and Rep seem to be very likely sources. Surprised that so many of the small parties didn't participate last time.
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Oct 15, 2018 11:48
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Franken 
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Oct 15, 2018 12:22
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goethe42 posted:The people currently nearing the end of their shelf-life are the Zwischenkriegsgeneration and Kriegskinder, so the last ones that received officially or inofficialy a völkische education. Danke! Mir verlangt es nach dem Tod alles völkischen.
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Oct 15, 2018 12:30
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Smirr posted:I wanna do a seance where I conjure the ghost(s) of whoever decided to build Köln Hbf right next to the Dom and teach them about the invention of international air travel and front facing phone cameras. loving hell this place is death. Still almost three hours until my train back to the shithole that I don't hate 
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Oct 15, 2018 13:05
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frankenfreak posted:Did Köln Hbf break Smirr? Hostageposting is a thing these days.
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Oct 15, 2018 13:27
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There must be an easier way to get participants for a seance than taking hostages and force them to join!
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Oct 15, 2018 13:30
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frankenfreak posted:Did Köln Hbf break Smirr? I've been back in Berlin since Saturday night  Although this is probably in my personal top 3 of relatable hostage takings, unless this turns tragic, in which case I didn't say anything
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Oct 15, 2018 13:38
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Apparently they just went in and managed to arrest the guy. https://twitter.com/polizei_nrw_k/status/1051821145039757314 e: Apparently the hostage is alright, too: https://twitter.com/polizei_nrw_k/status/1051822086694555648 Perestroika fucked around with this message at 14:14 on Oct 15, 2018 |
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Oct 15, 2018 14:07
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Geiselwahnsinn STOPPEN, Geiselnähmer jetzt RAUS aus Deutschland! e: at least he didn't ask for Caprisonne this time, poo poo is expensive and schwarze null
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Oct 15, 2018 14:09
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Anyone remember the guy who called the police "lachhafter haufen"? Well... https://twitter.com/erdapfelotto/status/1051630505756684293
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Oct 15, 2018 14:17
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Sereri posted:Anyone remember the guy who called the police "lachhafter haufen"? Well... I actually don't remember that, but now that I read up on it, and it turns out the Polizei threatened him to "überdenk" his Tweet because they'd be strafrechtlich prüfing it, then they said they'd back down from prosecution and would instead invite him to a Klärungsgespräch over a coffee (which he agreed to, albeit on a day later when he wasn't hung over), and then backed down from that to prosecute him. 
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Oct 15, 2018 15:38
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Sereri posted:Anyone remember the guy who called the police "lachhafter haufen"? Well... solid PR move there
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Oct 15, 2018 16:11
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mods please rename me Captain Acab thanks in advance
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Oct 15, 2018 16:12
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