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Sheng-Ji Yang
Mar 5, 2014


Typo posted:

armed insurgencies and political violence have tended to accelerate the dive into dictatorships

see fujimori in peru

not really

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fspades
Jun 3, 2013

by R. Guyovich

Sheng-Ji Yang posted:

armed insurgencies have failed and succeeded. in some cases they are the only option/the best option, or not a good option at all. americans are probably biased towards guns because we are insane, but the opposite idea that they are always futile or doomed is simply not true with even a basic examination of modern history.

Things change. When was the last time a functioning and modern government was felled by an insurgency? Guerilla warfare becomes really dangerous when the enemy has drones and satellite imaging.

THS
Sep 15, 2017

yeah idk what foreign power would help a brazil insurgency

THS
Sep 15, 2017

china you’re loving useless

Elias_Maluco
Aug 23, 2007
I need to sleep
In Syria they did had a lot of foreign help and still Assad stands

Sheng-Ji Yang
Mar 5, 2014


fspades posted:

Things change. When was the last time a functioning and modern government was felled by an insurgency? Guerilla warfare becomes really dangerous when the enemy has drones and satellite imaging.

the taliban control vast swaths of Afghanistan despite decades of war against the most powerful and technologically advanced military in the world.

Bullfrog
Nov 5, 2012

Elias_Maluco posted:

In Syria they did had a lot of foreign help and still Assad stands

Assad had more foreign help via Russia and Iran

Moridin920
Nov 15, 2007

by FactsAreUseless
Colombia has been fighting insurgents in the jungles for decades lol

StashAugustine
Mar 24, 2013

Do not trust in hope- it will betray you! Only faith and hatred sustain.

Moridin920 posted:

Colombia has been fighting insurgents in the jungles for decades lol

Theyve pretty much won at this point right? Only reason there wasn't a treaty is the right thought it could get an even harder one

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Bullfrog posted:

Insurgencies most often succeed when funded by a foreign power and are much less successful when they aren't. That's the big secret of the 20th century

Moridin920
Nov 15, 2007

by FactsAreUseless

StashAugustine posted:

Theyve pretty much won at this point right? Only reason there wasn't a treaty is the right thought it could get an even harder one

Still though lol

Moridin920
Nov 15, 2007

by FactsAreUseless

Bullfrog posted:

Insurgencies most often succeed when funded by a foreign power and are much less successful when they aren't. That's the big secret of the 20th century

Ireland?



Anyway here is a side lol; when you win a "civil war" :

Sheng-Ji Yang
Mar 5, 2014


Bullfrog posted:

Insurgencies most often succeed when funded by a foreign power and are much less successful when they aren't. That's the big secret of the 20th century

except the reactionary governments often received vastly greater arms and funding from the United States than victorious leftist guerrillas and national liberation movements received from the soviets, and still lost.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Moridin920 posted:

Ireland?



Anyway here is a side lol; when you win a "civil war" :



that wasn't an insurgency though, that was a conventional civil war in which the communists started out controlling a significant percentage of the population/industry

in which case yeah foreign support matters less

Moridin920
Nov 15, 2007

by FactsAreUseless

Typo posted:

that wasn't an insurgency though, that was a conventional civil war in which the communists started out controlling a significant percentage of the population/industry

in which case yeah foreign support matters less

Yes, I just thought it was funny.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

THS posted:

china you’re loving useless

china isn't gonna help a brazilian insurgency lol

xi and bolnosoro will shake hands and announce chinese aquisition of brazilian mining/logging rights for a gazillion dollars

fspades
Jun 3, 2013

by R. Guyovich

Sheng-Ji Yang posted:

the taliban control vast swaths of Afghanistan despite decades of war against the most powerful and technologically advanced military in the world.

That's why I said functioning. Afghanistan is a joke.

Venom Snake
Feb 19, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo

Typo posted:

china isn't gonna help a brazilian insurgency lol

xi and bolnosoro will shake hands and announce chinese aquisition of brazilian mining/logging rights for a gazillion dollars

Except he won on anti-chinese fear mongering and vehement anti-communism lol. He's far more likely to sell the amazon to jared kushner

Sheng-Ji Yang
Mar 5, 2014


Venom Snake posted:

Except he won on anti-chinese fear mongering and vehement anti-communism lol. He's far more likely to sell the amazon to jared kushner

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcQ92BC0WzI

Elias_Maluco
Aug 23, 2007
I need to sleep

Venom Snake posted:

Except he won on anti-chinese fear mongering and vehement anti-communism lol. He's far more likely to sell the amazon to jared kushner

He did but I very much doubt he is going to sour relations with our most important economic partner

THS
Sep 15, 2017

Typo posted:

china isn't gonna help a brazilian insurgency lol

xi and bolnosoro will shake hands and announce chinese aquisition of brazilian mining/logging rights for a gazillion dollars

oh yeah i know. just pointing out there’s zero counterweight to the current hegemony

Venom Snake
Feb 19, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo

Elias_Maluco posted:

He did but I very much doubt he is going to sour relations with our most important economic partner

People said this about trump wrt tariffs and other economic poo poo. Logic never gets in the way of what dumbshit strongmen want.

Frijolero
Jan 24, 2009

by Nyc_Tattoo
My knowledge comes from basic internet searches, but my understanding is that Brazil's military is big and well funded, especially when compared to neighboring states. Is this correct? Is there any silver lining?

His Purple Majesty
Dec 12, 2008

Frijolero posted:

My knowledge comes from basic internet searches, but my understanding is that Brazil's military is big and well funded, especially when compared to neighboring states. Is this correct? Is there any silver lining?

They haven't been engaged in a major war in quite a while and has only been used for internal suppression. Any war Brazil would wage would turn out like Yemen.

jBrereton
May 30, 2013
Grimey Drawer

Frijolero posted:

My knowledge comes from basic internet searches, but my understanding is that Brazil's military is big and well funded, especially when compared to neighboring states. Is this correct? Is there any silver lining?
I don't think this guys gonna War of the Triple Alliance the Brazilian bourgeoisie into a fine paste like Francisco Solano López

Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

(and can't post for 27 days!)

His Purple Majesty posted:

They haven't been engaged in a major war in quite a while and has only been used for internal suppression. Any war Brazil would wage would turn out like Yemen.

if they go to war with Venezuela, then all the whites and bourgeois aspirationists will be an enthusiastic fifth column. so I wouldn’t be so sure that they’d definitely lose.

Moridin920
Nov 15, 2007

by FactsAreUseless

Frijolero posted:

My knowledge comes from basic internet searches, but my understanding is that Brazil's military is big and well funded, especially when compared to neighboring states. Is this correct? Is there any silver lining?

South America is poo poo tons of jungles and mountains and military engagements there would be a logistical nightmare.

Plutonis
Mar 25, 2011

A newly elected lawmaker from the party of Brazil’s ultra-rightwing president-elect, Jair Bolsonaro, has launched a campaign to encourage students to denounce teachers who complain about his victory.
In an interview with local radio, Campagnola said her phone had been running hot with denunciations. When one Facebook follower questioned the legality of filming in class, she warned: “Just behave properly and there is no reason to be scared, citizen.”

Plutonis
Mar 25, 2011

I really really really picked the wrong career choice lmfao

spivak
May 19, 2010
My family is full of teachers and professors, as are most of my friends (LGBT, also). This is the dumbest education policy conceivable, Jesus Christ.

My dream was to be a professor in my home city of Belo Horizonte. I am never going back now.

How are universities in Portugal, Portuguese goons (portugoons?)? I loved Portugal and speaking portuguese instead of this weird rear end language, I would happily live in a small town with an ok university anywhere in Portugal actually.

spivak has issued a correction as of 19:42 on Oct 30, 2018

Taintrunner
Apr 10, 2017

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Plutonis posted:

I really really really picked the wrong career choice lmfao

just behave properly and there is no reason to be scared, citizen

Max Awfuls
Sep 10, 2011

spivak posted:

My family is full of teachers and professors, as are most of my friends (LGBT, also). This is the dumbest education policy conceivable, Jesus Christ.

My dream was to be a professor in my home city of Belo Horizonte. I am never going back now.

How are universities in Portugal, Portugues goons (portugoons?)? I loved Portugal and speaking portuguese instead of this weird rear end language, I would happily live in a small town with an ok university anywhere in Portugal actually.

There were inevitable budget cuts to education during the FMI years, but the situation is mostly stable if not particularly brilliant, as is most of portuguese economy and society. There's plenty of smaller universities outside of Lisbon and Porto, both state run and private. Besides, the classic university city is actually Coimbra, in the middle of the country, which has one of the world's oldest universities. Don't know what's the status of legal immigration at the moment because Portugal has put a stay on receiving requests from brazilians for the time being because they rightfully expect to be flooded with them after the Bolsonaro win. You can always move here and see how it goes, plenty of brazilians have come without any legal immigration status and managed to aquire it later on.

spivak
May 19, 2010

Thanks a lot. I am an European resident for the next two years, so I will apply for some positions there for sure in the near future.

The Atomic Man-Boy
Jul 23, 2007


Getting beaten and detained...to own the libs

Kunster
Dec 24, 2006

Plutonis posted:

A newly elected lawmaker from the party of Brazil’s ultra-rightwing president-elect, Jair Bolsonaro, has launched a campaign to encourage students to denounce teachers who complain about his victory.
In an interview with local radio, Campagnola said her phone had been running hot with denunciations. When one Facebook follower questioned the legality of filming in class, she warned: “Just behave properly and there is no reason to be scared, citizen.”

https://twitter.com/strauss_real/status/1056707022119452672

And someone peeped that and is doing a donation drive for appears to be legal funds for the APAE (Parents of Students and Disabled Kids, I think that's the closest translation) there based on sending random horseshit to her. I think its done and the money was sent already.

Kunster has issued a correction as of 20:15 on Oct 30, 2018

Kurnugia
Sep 2, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo

fspades posted:

pardon me for asking but are you american?

HardDiskD posted:

i mean i could buy a gun and commit suicide via military police, but i dont think that will help anyone

i meant in the sense that if that starts to occur, irrespective of your personal preferences, your ability to acquire firearms will get limited. ergo, you might not be able to buy guns later if we assume that violence is a possibility in brazil.
and im finnish, and i wasn't joking when i said im ignorant

Max Awfuls
Sep 10, 2011

spivak posted:

Thanks a lot. I am an European resident for the next two years, so I will apply for some positions there for sure in the near future.

Do you have any european immigrant grandparents? This is purely anecdotal, but brazilian footballers use this as a way to fast track dual citizenship in Europe all the time in places like Italy, Portugal and Germany.

frankenfreak
Feb 16, 2007

I SCORED 85% ON A QUIZ ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT RAW AND ALL I GOT WAS THIS LOUSY TEXT

#bastionboogerbrigade

Max Awfuls posted:

Do you have any european immigrant grandparents? This is purely anecdotal, but brazilian footballers use this as a way to fast track dual citizenship in Europe all the time in places like Italy, Portugal and Germany.
Yeah, but they're professional footballers which helps a lot.

Space Kablooey
May 6, 2009


Max Awfuls posted:

Do you have any european immigrant grandparents? This is purely anecdotal, but brazilian footballers use this as a way to fast track dual citizenship in Europe all the time in places like Italy, Portugal and Germany.

From what I understand, if you are already living in one of the countries, even if just on a tourist visa, and then apply for citizenship while having and address there (even if its temporary), the process goes a lot faster then if you apply from the outside. It's something like a few months vs half a decade.

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Space Kablooey
May 6, 2009


Kurnugia posted:

i meant in the sense that if that starts to occur, irrespective of your personal preferences, your ability to acquire firearms will get limited. ergo, you might not be able to buy guns later if we assume that violence is a possibility in brazil.
and im finnish, and i wasn't joking when i said im ignorant

Acquiring a legal weapon here is very expensive and very difficult, something that most people cannot afford. There's always the black market, but yikes.

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