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Official venom snake prediction: Dems stay at 49 senate seats and win a slim majority in the house. If pelosi remains speaker then they spend 2 years doing nothing but investigations into poo poo nobody cares about like Russia. They make an honest attempt or two at actually left of center bills that are instantly veto'd/voted down by the senate. If pelosi gets voted out then things get interesting. Id love to be wrong, but nothing iv heard or read since 2016 has given me any confidence in the current iteration of the democratic party to do anything but briefly slow our descent into hell. To even have a chance of turning poo poo around we need half of the democrats in congress to be left of wear AOC is now by 2020 and that's not going to happen.
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Nov 6, 2018 04:43
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Not a Step posted:You know, for a while I was annoyed with RBG for not retiring under Obama so her seat could go to a marginally left candidate, but now I'm certain Obama would have tried to appoint a right winger to 'balance out' Merrick Garland and still gotten the door slammed in his face You know he would have. The West Wing showed it works. Also Dems will ratfuck Bernie in 202. I bet they have a slim house majority but lose one in the senate and Bernie gets blamed.
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Nov 6, 2018 04:43
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Maybe they'll invent a new name for him that makes him sound like trump "Bernald Trunders" or somethign like that
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Nov 6, 2018 04:47
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I think if bernie runs in 2020 he will win the primary and nominally have the support of the party apparatus (if only because he will probably win a decent vote share and he's very popular with the grass roots organizers that actually accomplish poo poo) but a lot of shitheads like Manchin are going to flip out and switch parties. bloomberg will run as an independent and get <5% of the vote in NY. Bernie will win the popular vote by a large margin and eek out a win in the EC. not a knock against bernie, just that it's really hard to unseat incumbent presidents. he will probably do a lot of good in the executive branch but we won't get MFA or free college because of issues in the legislature.
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Nov 6, 2018 04:52
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because the democrat party has been so very good at coming up with good messaging and catchy sound bites and nicknames
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Nov 6, 2018 04:52
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Extreme comedy option: Dems gain like 80 seats in the House and lose seats in the Senate
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Nov 6, 2018 04:54
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Nov 6, 2018 04:55
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If we've learned anything from theturmop residency it's that a president can basically just declare a thing on twitter and then legislators have to take for or against positions on whatever it is he's posting about. President Sanders' twitter account would be one hell of a bully pulpit for left
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Nov 6, 2018 04:56
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WhiskeyJuvenile posted:Extreme comedy option: Dems gain like 80 seats in the House and lose seats in the Senate this is my actual prediction
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Nov 6, 2018 04:56
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I think the pollsters turnout models are way off so who the gently caress knows Anyways, https://twitter.com/franklinbynum/status/1059638584272138240?s=19 We're going to relive the present every day until we're all die
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Nov 6, 2018 04:58
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Venom Snake posted:I think if bernie runs in 2020 he will win the primary and nominally have the support of the party apparatus (if only because he will probably win a decent vote share and he's very popular with the grass roots organizers that actually accomplish poo poo) but a lot of shitheads like Manchin are going to flip out and switch parties. bloomberg will run as an independent and get <5% of the vote in NY. Bernie will win the popular vote by a large margin and eek out a win in the EC. not a knock against bernie, just that it's really hard to unseat incumbent presidents. he will probably do a lot of good in the executive branch but we won't get MFA or free college because of issues in the legislature. The only disagreement I have with this is the narrow EC win part. He'll do better in the EC than the popular vote because when Bloomberg runs, he siphons popular vote but doesn't win EC votes and Bernie's got a SUPER wide electoral map. And I guess the party switching thing. Switching only makes sense if he either thinks he's going to lose, and if Bernie is winning, that seems unlikely, or if the GOP somehow looks more inviting committee and majority wise, and that similarly seems unlikely. Seriously, it's hard to overstate just how much leverage Manchin has with Dem leadership and how little he'd have with GOP leadership.
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Nov 6, 2018 05:04
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Sometimes you have to remember that they're petty pieces of poo poo tho
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Nov 6, 2018 05:05
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Azathoth posted:The only disagreement I have with this is the narrow EC win part. He'll do better in the EC than the popular vote because when Bloomberg runs, he siphons popular vote but doesn't win EC votes and Bernie's got a SUPER wide electoral map. I don't think bloomberg would actually siphon any popular votes because there isn't a base for his kind of politics anymore. I said what I did about the EC because it is just tough for democrats in general because of the way the system is setup. Bernie would get a LOT more votes than most dems would get in a lot of places but it won't be enough to flip those states. Which again isn't a fault of Bernie, it's that we have an incredibly undemocratic electoral system. That leverage manchin has would evaporate if the democratic caucus moved further enough to the left that manchin wouldn't vote for anything the dems put up. I 100% guarantee you manchin would never vote for anything coming out of a Sanders white house.
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Nov 6, 2018 05:07
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WhiskeyJuvenile posted:Sometimes you have to remember that they're petty pieces of poo poo tho
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Nov 6, 2018 05:09
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Venom Snake posted:I think if bernie runs in 2020 he will win the primary and nominally have the support of the party apparatus (if only because he will probably win a decent vote share and he's very popular with the grass roots organizers that actually accomplish poo poo) but a lot of shitheads like Manchin are going to flip out and switch parties. bloomberg will run as an independent and get <5% of the vote in NY. Bernie will win the popular vote by a large margin and eek out a win in the EC. not a knock against bernie, just that it's really hard to unseat incumbent presidents. he will probably do a lot of good in the executive branch but we won't get MFA or free college because of issues in the legislature. I don't even think that will happen. The media really will not let a social dem come in and they still have just enough pull with older boomer libs to ensure that a social dem will be kept out of power. No. He will never be President. We are going to have Trump win by less then 45% of the vote with Bernie in a close second while Bloomberg with possibly Booker ensure he is kept from the Presidency. I just also know we're headed towards a another great"recession" due to student loan debt and corporations taking on too much debt due to quantive easing under Obama, and Trump and that could be used to prepare for a true reckoning in 2024. Note this reckoning will probably just be the preparations for a civil conflict as whomever comes into the office in 2024 will come in with plans to gut the Judicary and put in place the conditions for something like 1861. Liberalism is dying and we must be ready for the conflict that will ensure with its death.
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Nov 6, 2018 05:10
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galenanorth posted:in which Manchin and Bredesen are the decisive votes for letting a Scalia clone take Ruth Badger Ginsburg's seat, after Chuck Schumer doesn't use his power to prevent the vote from being held Yeah, I'm pretty sure that Schumer would give in and there would be a ton of "anonymous sources" claiming that he had to do it because Manchin was threatening to switch parties and give the gavel to McConnel again. D&D will erupt in applause at Schumer for saving the democratic control of congress.
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Nov 6, 2018 05:13
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basic hitler posted:I'm kinda bummed out by how hyped people are about this election. This kind of fervor shoild be saved for like, something good happening. Best case the house gets taken back by a democratic party that's still predominantly succ and has demonstrated how fundamentally unwilling it is to engage with anyone but their corporate donors. It's difficult to discuss with people because I don't exactly want to argue "voting isn't important," because it does kinda matter in various ways, but at the same time putting such a huge focus on it is bad and basically a conscious choice on the part Democratic organizations/politicians because it's a political action that isn't actually threatening to those with power.
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Nov 6, 2018 05:29
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Venom Snake posted:Official venom snake prediction: Dems stay at 49 senate seats and win a slim majority in the house. If pelosi remains speaker then they spend 2 years doing nothing but investigations into poo poo nobody cares about like Russia. They make an honest attempt or two at actually left of center bills that are instantly veto'd/voted down by the senate. If pelosi gets voted out then things get interesting. Based on this post we now know it's either a big win or a crushing defeat in store for the dems.
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Nov 6, 2018 05:29
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https://twitter.com/MariahCBlake/status/1059664028170104833?s=19
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Nov 6, 2018 05:35
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Crowsbeak posted:I don't even think that will happen. The media really will not let a social dem come in and they still have just enough pull with older boomer libs to ensure that a social dem will be kept out of power. I think you're completely wrong about this. The media will fall in line behind whoever is the more interesting story that attracts more viewers. They're more interested in short-term returns than in the long-term schemes you're ascribing to them. They only care about getting the highest ratings this quarter. Ytlaya posted:It's difficult to discuss with people because I don't exactly want to argue "voting isn't important," because it does kinda matter in various ways, but at the same time putting such a huge focus on it is bad and basically a conscious choice on the part Democratic organizations/politicians because it's a political action that isn't actually threatening to those with power. I find characterizing voting as "Necessary but not sufficient" helps.
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Nov 6, 2018 05:41
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lmao "we're building a new headquarters, supplicate yourself before our corporate king to show how much you deserve to let us leech off your city" [everyone, gormlessly, actually does that] "oh looks like we need to build two new headquarters, so now you should fight for second place"
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Nov 6, 2018 05:43
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Majorian posted:I think you're completely wrong about this. The media will fall in line behind whoever is the more interesting story that attracts more viewers. They're more interested in short-term returns than in the long-term schemes you're ascribing to them. They only care about getting the highest ratings this quarter. Jake Tapper dedicating months of coverage to Bernie, but it's months of making GBS threads on him
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Nov 6, 2018 05:43
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Nonsense posted:Jake Tapper dedicating months of coverage to Bernie, but it's months of making GBS threads on him That's fine, a lot of the media shat on Trump and welp...turns out a lot of people who don't usually vote really, really hate the corporate media.
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Nov 6, 2018 05:44
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Vox Nihili posted:Based on this post we now know it's either a big win or a crushing defeat in store for the dems. god speed
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Nov 6, 2018 05:50
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Not a Step posted:You know, for a while I was annoyed with RBG for not retiring under Obama so her seat could go to a marginally left candidate, but now I'm certain Obama would have tried to appoint a right winger to 'balance out' Merrick Garland and still gotten the door slammed in his face Nice fanfic
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Nov 6, 2018 06:06
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Nonsense posted:Bernie
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Nov 6, 2018 06:10
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yronic heroism posted:Nice fanfic yronic, won't you please tell us again why we shouldn't call cops fascists?  e: also Nonsense posted:Bernie
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Nov 6, 2018 06:11
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Bernoe
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Nov 6, 2018 06:28
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Majorian posted:yronic, won't you please tell us again why we shouldn't call cops fascists? https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ThJcHjCI9j4
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Nov 6, 2018 06:36
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Majorian posted:That's fine, a lot of the media shat on Trump and welp...turns out a lot of people who don't usually vote really, really hate the corporate media. Yeah, there was a huuuge Streisand Effect of sorts with the Trump playing the media like a fiddle. The media blacks out Sanders because their bosses don't want him to be taken seriously, but as an actual Presidential candidate he's totally unignorable and he can pull out all the firebrand stops against Trump. Bloomberg wouldn't even beat Stein.
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Nov 6, 2018 06:38
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joepinetree posted:Yeah, I'm pretty sure that Schumer would give in and there would be a ton of "anonymous sources" claiming that he had to do it because Manchin was threatening to switch parties and give the gavel to McConnel again. D&D will erupt in applause at Schumer for saving the democratic control of congress. at the moment they're absolutely convinced beyond a shadow of a doubt schumer would rule with an iron fist and refuse to hold votes on any trump nominee
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Nov 6, 2018 07:09
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The Muppets On PCP posted:at the moment they're absolutely convinced beyond a shadow of a doubt schumer would rule with an iron fist and refuse to hold votes on any trump nominee Well yeah, come on. Look at the iron resolve he and Pelosi demonstrated during the DACA episode. Mother and Father will care for us.
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Nov 6, 2018 07:39
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The Muppets On PCP posted:at the moment they're absolutely convinced beyond a shadow of a doubt schumer would rule with an iron fist and refuse to hold votes on any trump nominee if schumer approved even a single trump nominee after miraculously winning control i dont even know what id do. something illegal, maybe, like kicking over a garbage bin.
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Nov 6, 2018 07:41
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Shear Modulus posted:Bernoe
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Nov 6, 2018 07:48
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Lemming posted:On paper. Glazer won a special election without the support of the party because it was in a rich CD and he ran as a Republican with a D next to his name on the paper, then voted against the loving gas tax and they needed to bribe a Republican to vote for it by giving their district basically free cash. california does have a supermajority, its just not a Democrat supermajority, its a silicon valley/finance company landlords/HMO/Exxon supermajority
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Nov 6, 2018 09:02
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https://twitter.com/IHateNYT/status/1059675026285346816
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Nov 6, 2018 09:20
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Those sarsaparilla drinking "B" name havers!
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Nov 6, 2018 09:26
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Bernie Sanders, who IS KNOWN TO CAUCUS WITH THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY
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Nov 6, 2018 09:26
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lol if you think Bernie's getting a single EC vote.
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Nov 6, 2018 09:46
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Lol
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Nov 6, 2018 09:55
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