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evilweasel posted:It is likely he will not explicitly fire Mueller. He'll just deny requests to expand his scope and decide that he has a budget of fifty cents per day. A lot depends on how much approval Mueller already sought. I think that would be a very easily provable obstruction case though.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:16
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Teddybear posted:Well, it depends on whether it's a formal regulation or an informal internal regulation. Formal regulation has to go through the rulemaking process. Informal, I think, would be more abbreviated and go through whatever internal process DOJ has. it's in the CFR
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Nov 7, 2018 21:16
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1glitch0 posted:Word? nah, its will be tonight or tomarrow. rod is gonna get sacked too.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:17
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Majorian posted:If they face a lot of political pressure and they're up for reelection anytime soon, sure. But I wouldn't count on it. They STARTED the probe with no upcoming election.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:17
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Yeah they will try to strangle it first, and only kill it as a last resort since it would look so bad. Hopefully Mueller has prepared for this.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:17
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"I can't believe this guy that breaks and ignores rules to get what he wants, the same way most of us breathe, just fired Mueller on extremely specious pretenses." - this thread
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Nov 7, 2018 21:17
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I am stunned that anyone thinks Mueller won't get fired/procedurally neutered before Saturday. Haven't you been paying attention to this administration?
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Nov 7, 2018 21:17
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:They STARTED the probe with no upcoming election. yeah and they lost the loving house. not to mention a ton of state stuff.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:17
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the regulation matters, we know this because Matthew Whitaker is already on record speculating how you kill the probe without violating that regulation https://twitter.com/johnkruzel/status/1060262252480290817
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Nov 7, 2018 21:17
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Bread Set Jettison posted:Isnt it mostly done tho Well there's about to be some more Obstruction of Justice to look in to...
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Nov 7, 2018 21:17
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Hateful bog troll embarrassed, defeated by deranged, catchphrase-spouting manchild in unfortunately late Ernest Scared Stupid homage.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:17
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Hoo boy I hope Mueller has Adam Schiff's Dropbox link. Or David Fahrenthold's.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:18
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sean10mm posted:It's more that firing Mueller when the Democratic majority House will just come in and start investigating in his place instantly is so utterly pointless. Especially since they can just literally tell Mueller to tell them everything and give them all his poo poo, and then even use him as a consultant for the investigation they'll be doing in the place of his original investigation. Mueller is a much better investigator than the Democratic majority is, and has the ability to prosecute underlings.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:18
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Pleads posted:Well there's about to be some more Obstruction of Justice to look in to... Rofl 
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Nov 7, 2018 21:18
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booseek posted:Can't the new House reinstate Mueller if he's fired in January? What are the rules here? Is there any meaningful difference between Mueller’s ability to investigate as a DoJ appointed special counsel vs a House appointee one?
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Nov 7, 2018 21:18
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Until the next one... There’s always a next one! ...to drown in house investigations 
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Nov 7, 2018 21:18
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enraged_camel posted:I think that would be a very easily provable obstruction case though. great, pitch that case to the man currently doing the obstruction. oh, he didn't approve you to bring charges?
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Nov 7, 2018 21:18
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Bread Set Jettison posted:Isnt it mostly done tho someone post the picture of special counsel investigation lengths and indictments. Pretty sure you could fit 3 Mueller probes into the next shortest one at this point.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:18
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sean10mm posted:It's more that firing Mueller when the Democratic majority House will just come in and start investigating in his place instantly is so utterly pointless. Especially since they can just literally tell Mueller to tell them everything and give them all his poo poo, and then even use him as a consultant for the investigation they'll be doing in the place of his original investigation. Except then it will obviously be a totally very super fake DEMORAT investigation and not a mostly fake RINO super double secret Hilldog run investigation, you idiot, you absolute moron.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:19
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Lote posted:Most likely they planned this ahead of time and were hoping for a closer race or an outcome where the R maintained control. Where are you seeing the D+9.5?
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Nov 7, 2018 21:19
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The next one will probably put up a good fight for that title.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:19
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I would laugh myself into an early grave if Trump appointed another AG who then had to recuse themselves due to conflict of interest
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Nov 7, 2018 21:19
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Tibalt posted:There will definitely be an election.  AMERICA DECIDES, 2020! I have polisci theory about elections. It's not a crazy theory, most people won't disagree with it - elections are 90% macro factors, 9% micro factors, and 1% horse race bullshit. The Macro factors are things like demographics, geography, voter trends, and the economy. Even two years out, a lot of this stuff is set in stone. Micro factors are things like the candidate, incumbency, fundraising, down-ballot effects, scandals, and so on. Finally you have horse race bullshit like debates, gaffes, and attack ads that really don't do poo poo, but CNN will spend hours discussing. I believe you can take a look today, and make a pretty good guess at what's going to matter in two years. Since some of you didn't pay attention in Civics class or are foreigners, I'm going to be talking about a LOT of very basic info here. If you already know about US politics, I'll put the key points in bold for you to skim. What's up for election, 2020:
The entire House of Representatives (Yes, it happens literally every two years. All of it) 33 Class 2 Senators and John McCain's Senator seat 11 Governors A Lot Of Other Stuff (AGs, state legislatures, territorial governors, ect) The Presidential Election The president is determined by the Electoral College - the president gets 1 vote for each Representative and each Senator for every state they received the majority of votes*. To put it another way, the President wins by winning the most states, but the states are worth different amount. In total, there 538 votes available for the 50 states, from 55 votes for California to 3 votes for North Dakota. However, most states (and their corresponding votes) are fairly locked in. Since 2000, 37 states have voted the same way for each election. Taking those as assumed, the Democrat has 'locked in' 195 votes and the Republican candidate has locked in 179 votes, leaving 164 votes available in 13 states. Of course, there's a couple limitations to looking at it this way. Some previously reliable states have started looking swingy, and some swingy states are looking reliable. But the key states will probably be some combination of NH (4), NM (5), NV (6), IA (6), CO (9), WI (10), IN (11), VA (13), NC (15), MI (16), OH (18), PA (20), & FL (29). I would suggest TX (38) and GA (16) as states that potentially get talked about, but that's "Death of the Republican Party" talk. In reality, only 5 of these states should actually 'matter' on election night - Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina & Michigan. This list might be pretty different in 2 years, but those would be your 'core' swing states. FL, PA, and OH have been the swing state trifecta for 20 years now, while North Carolina was a pick-up by Obama and Michigan was a pick-up by Trump. That's all there really is to say about the 2020 presidential election until we get closer, though. *Several states split their votes but they're usually not relevant The House of Representatives Unlike the President (4 years) and Senators (6 years), Representatives serve 2 years and must be elected EVERY cycle. There are 435 representatives, portioned out to each state based on their population during the most recent census. For each Representative, the state determine districts that have (roughly) equal populations. Each of these races are VERY local and get 0 polling, and the borders constantly change, so it's almost impossible to make predictions about specific races. Luckily! That all tends to balance itself out in aggregate - taken as a whole, the House election is probably as close to a parliamentary style proportional election you're going to get in the United States, albeit one with a definite Republican tilt. 218 seats are needed for a majority, and the majority party decides Committee Chairs. Committee Chairs are incredibly powerful individuals have massive amounts of control over their Committees, and committee has almost free reign to investigate, subpoena, and holding hearings related to area. Once you have 218 seats, additional seats aren't as important - they give you more votes in committees, and they give you more "Hall Passes" during votes - party leaders let certain members vote no on a bill, to improve their electoral chances in their home district. This can be very important for things like budgets - letting 20 or so Democrats vote against your bipartisan budget deal could both prevent a shutdown, and prevent any faction of members hold the whole thing hostage. The Republicans had consistent issues with their House Freedom Caucus due to this. The Democrats look like they'll have between 230 and 240 seats in the house after yesterday's election. Generally speaking, the fortunes of the party follows the fortunes of the President (or vice versa...). Generally, midterm and presidential elections have played out very differently, so I'm going to refer to only Presidential election years. In the recent elections where a Democrat won the presidency (2008 & 2012), the Democratic party has gained an average of 14.5 seats. The 2008 election could be particularly instructive - as the unpopular George Bush left office, the democrats gained 21 seats, for a total of 257. However, in years where the Republican candidate won (2000, 2004 & 2016), the Democrats gained an average of 1.3 seats. In the their worst presidential election year, the Democrats lost only 6 seats. So it's unlikely that Republicans will pick up the 12 to 22 seats they'll need to take control in 2020, regardless of how well Trump performs. There's an additional complicating factor here. A "trifecta" refers to when one party has unitary control of a state government - both chambers of the legislature and the governor. After last night, 6 states now have a Democratic trifecta, while 4 (possibly 5) states broke their Republican trifecta. This is important because, as mentioned before, the states are portioned out their number of representatives after each census, which happens one a decade. As the number of the representatives change, and the number of people in each district change, the state map of federal districts for each representative are re-drawn. Using mathematics and geography, known as Gerrymandering, a state government controlled by one party can draw the lines of the their districts in such as way that it gives benefit to their party in any election. It's not quite clear how much of the Republican lean in the House is due to gerrymandering, and how much is due to the innate rural bias in this weird rear end system some dudes set up 200 years ago, which we then made even weirder by arbitrarily deciding to freeze the number of representatives at 435. I've already talked about the Senate elections and nobody cares about other states' governors, so I'll probably do those some other time.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:20
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Demon Of The Fall posted:There's no way they fire Mueller. Come on people. It's way too late for that. Never doubt how stupid he is. Ever
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Nov 7, 2018 21:20
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MA-Horus posted:I would laugh myself into an early grave if Trump appointed another AG who then had to recuse themselves due to conflict of interest Hes gonna do this I cant wait
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Nov 7, 2018 21:20
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evilweasel posted:It wasn't voluntary: https://twitter.com/eorden/status/1060257377780408321 How is this not being fired what the gently caress
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Nov 7, 2018 21:20
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Dapper_Swindler posted:nah, its will be tonight or tomarrow. rod is gonna get sacked too. Nah, they'll assign him to head the CFPB via the vacancies act, since he won't resign.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:20
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MA-Horus posted:I would laugh myself into an early grave if Trump appointed another AG who then had to recuse themselves due to conflict of interest "had to" how do you plan on enforcing consequences on them for not doing so
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Nov 7, 2018 21:20
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Do you guys seriously think Mueller has not considered this scenario and doesn't have a plan for it?
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Nov 7, 2018 21:20
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enraged_camel posted:I think that would be a very easily provable obstruction case though. Okay? There are zero people that will do anything about it.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:20
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skylined! posted:How is this not being fired what the gently caress He could have refused
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Nov 7, 2018 21:20
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DandyLion posted:Except then it will obviously be a totally very super fake DEMORAT investigation and not a mostly fake RINO super double secret Hilldog run investigation, you idiot, you absolute moron. So no change from how they already talk about it anyway. Mueller couldn't prosecute Trump cronies directly if he's not special counsel anymore, but since Trump can pardon federal charges anyway it probably helps to just dump the evidence in the laps of state prosecutors to use.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:20
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fishing with the fam posted:Where are you seeing the D+9.5? It's what the NYT thought the margin was last night and is no longer correct. Their last guess was D+6.9. Won't know what the final was until they finish counting California.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:21
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Chilichimp posted:Nah, they'll assign him to head the CFPB via the vacancies act, since he won't resign. nah, trump is spiteful, he will burn rod.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:21
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skylined! posted:How is this not being fired what the gently caress Because he resigned
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Nov 7, 2018 21:21
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Z. Autobahn posted:Do you guys seriously think Mueller has not considered this scenario and doesn't have a plan for it? i am sure he has and i am sure he has good plans for it but who knows.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:21
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Reduce my budget to effectively end my investigation? What do you think I am, you fool? I finished my investigation 15 days ago
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Nov 7, 2018 21:21
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I’ve been saying that dems gaining subpoena power is the most important outcome of the election and this is why. Trump is 100% shook
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Nov 7, 2018 21:21
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More likely they're hoping to burn all the work Mueller did so the Dems have to start all over again and it takes until the next election to determine anything. Or they're going to refuse House subpoenas on grounds of executive privilege and hope the Supreme Court agrees with them. Which is unfortunately likely now.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:22
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evilweasel posted:great, pitch that case to the man currently doing the obstruction. oh, he didn't approve you to bring charges? still a dangerous gambit imo, now that the Dems can retaliate with subpoenas of their own
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Nov 7, 2018 21:22
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