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Kimsemus posted:Maybe that'll be the difference, because currently running against Trump has not been a winning strategy. How do you not run against Trump in 2020? Trump is ON THE BALLOT, LITERALLY AND SPECIFICALLY in 2020. You're running against him by definition.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:25
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:Is it possible that Trump really got so high on his own supply that he thought Republicans would retain the House? Is that why the chuds are so angry, despite the Senate results? They were heavily pushing the idea that Dem enthusiasm was a complete media lie and that Republicans would sweep the midterms, so probably.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:26
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:Is it possible that Trump really got so high on his own supply that he thought Republicans would retain the House? Is that why the chuds are so angry, despite the Senate results? The entirety of the CHUD cult is believing things that are in direct conflict with reality.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:27
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:Is it possible that Trump really got so high on his own supply that he thought Republicans would retain the House? Is that why the chuds are so angry, despite the Senate results? They're always going to be angry, whether they win or lose. It's just who they are.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:27
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Lightning Knight posted:They were heavily pushing the idea that Dem enthusiasm was a complete media lie and that Republicans would sweep the midterms, so probably. For about 35-40 minutes on Tuesday night, so were we  I think I probably took a few years off my life because of Nate Silver's goddamn needle. At least now we can loving tell Republicans that they don't get to disregard polls anymore. I was so sick of hearing "DURRRRRR ARE THESE THE SAME POLLSTERS WHO TOLD US HILLARY WUZ GUNNA WIN?????"
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Nov 8, 2018 17:27
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:Is it possible that Trump really got so high on his own supply that he thought Republicans would retain the House? Is that why the chuds are so angry, despite the Senate results? its extremely likely. trump is dumb and believes his own bullshit as are the chuds plus its seems like we may have only lost 2 or 1 seats. which sucks but isn't as bad as it appeared.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:29
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Fitzy Fitz posted:They're always going to be angry, whether they win or lose. It's just who they are. Yeah, the anger is primal and even the REpublicanness and the Trumpiness is just the form and channel.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:29
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evilweasel posted:I probably agree with this, because it looks like what happened in the House was more of a partisan realignment than a pure enthusiasm gap. 2010 was an enthusiasm gap, but then it was gerrymandered into being locked in - Democrats could have taken it back in 2012 but for the gerrymandering. Here, it looks like suburbs who shifted from Romney to Clinton but still hadn't rejected the Republican party (still believing that "good republicans" existed and would be a check on Trump) fully defected to the Democratic party. That, I think, will persist in 2020 because Trump isn't exactly going anywhere, and 2018 turnout was pretty close to what we can expect in 2020 rather than only Democrats but not Republicans turning out. It will depend on Dem messaging and strategic reach-outs specifically to suburban women to keep that alignment going, IMO. Lots of that demographic doesn't like Trump, but they do have immigration "concerns."
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Nov 8, 2018 17:29
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:Is it possible that Trump really got so high on his own supply that he thought Republicans would retain the House? Is that why the chuds are so angry, despite the Senate results?
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Nov 8, 2018 17:30
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:For about 35-40 minutes on Tuesday night, so were we I had an honest to god panic attack. I'd never had one, but luckily I've read about them, so I didn't call the hospital thinking I'd had a heart attack and I was able to eventually calm down.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:31
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VH4Ever posted:How do you not run against Trump in 2020? Trump is ON THE BALLOT, LITERALLY AND SPECIFICALLY in 2020. You're running against him by definition. he means that the only promice you run on is "gently caress trump" which is sorta mixed bag. it works in gross numbers but not for individual candidates. basicaly run on actual issues(healthcare, gently caress nazis, etc) and also "gently caress trump".
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Nov 8, 2018 17:31
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axeil posted:I think you can also make a good argument that firing Sessions and putting a loyalist in charge is also obstruction. I 100% believe that Trump would do something stupid in a fit of panic like this. We had a lot of reports that he was delusional all the way until the end that the GOP would retain control.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:31
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I don't even see the point of impeaching Trump at this point.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:32
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Jesus III posted:I had an honest to god panic attack. I'd never had one, but luckily I've read about them, so I didn't call the hospital thinking I'd had a heart attack and I was able to eventually calm down.  The first one is scary. Glad you rode it out.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:32
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HappyHippo posted:When his vote mattered and millions of people's healthcare was one the line, he voted the right way. Manchin filibustered the DREAM Act when every Democratic vote mattered because a few Republicans had crossed the aisle to support it. I get what you're saying on ACA, but "Manchin only votes bad when it doesn't matter" is not strictly correct.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:32
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Kobayashi posted:I don't even see the point of impeaching Trump at this point. Maybe it's shallow or petty of me, but I'm for anything that brings him pain.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:33
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Bicyclops posted:It will depend on Dem messaging and strategic reach-outs specifically to suburban women to keep that alignment going, IMO. Lots of that demographic doesn't like Trump, but they do have immigration "concerns." That demographic is precisely the demographic that the racial incitement hurts with, not helps and is why House Republicans were pissed off that was the closing message while Senate Republicans (who needed to convince red state CHUDs to come home, not suburbs) were pleased. Better republicans than Trump can (and have been for decades) dog-whistle it so that it pumps up their base without alienating people who prefer their racism deniable, but Trump's still going to be setting the message in 2020 and he won't have learned subtlety by then.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:34
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Crow Jane posted:Maybe it's shallow or petty of me, but I'm for anything that brings him pain.  my man is going to die alone regardless, but I see no reason to speed up the rate people desert him.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:34
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Crow Jane posted:Maybe it's shallow or petty of me, but I'm for anything that brings him pain. Does the sovereign immunity apply after he leaves office?
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Nov 8, 2018 17:35
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Crow Jane posted:Maybe it's shallow or petty of me, but I'm for anything that brings him pain. this is why i am taking such joy in eg the trump foundation takedown the most recent summary brief on it is a pro read, i'll repost it in a bit edit if i can find the one i'm thinking of, it might not be the actual most recent Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 17:40 on Nov 8, 2018 |
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Nov 8, 2018 17:35
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Kobayashi posted:I don't even see the point of impeaching Trump at this point.  crew so they can prove The System WorksTM and then go back to ignoring minority issues and murdering foreigners with robots.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:35
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Zophar posted:I 100% believe that Trump would do something stupid in a fit of panic like this. We had a lot of reports that he was delusional all the way until the end that the GOP would retain control. Jesus III posted:I had an honest to god panic attack. I'd never had one, but luckily I've read about them, so I didn't call the hospital thinking I'd had a heart attack and I was able to eventually calm down. sorry, friend. i legit had one yesterday because i stared into the abyss for too long on this thread plus the discord D&D chat. but i talked to a professor at my old college and it helped me a ton, plus just taking a break with pets.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:36
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Kobayashi posted:I don't even see the point of impeaching Trump at this point. imo, if the crimes are obvious/serious enough you do it simply so vulnerable R Senators in 2020 are forced to vote on it, similar to how the GOP used the Kavanaugh hearing to force red state Dems into tough votes. If they vote Yes they piss off the CHUDs, if they vote No they piss off/motivate Dems/Indies and the handful of Republicans that still have souls which could be enough to put the Senate in play. edit: actually poo poo, if the House impeaches is the Senate forced to have a hearing or can The Turtle just Merrick Garland it?
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Nov 8, 2018 17:36
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evilweasel posted:I probably agree with this, because it looks like what happened in the House was more of a partisan realignment than a pure enthusiasm gap. 2010 was an enthusiasm gap, but then it was gerrymandered into being locked in - Democrats could have taken it back in 2012 but for the gerrymandering. Here, it looks like suburbs who shifted from Romney to Clinton but still hadn't rejected the Republican party (still believing that "good republicans" existed and would be a check on Trump) fully defected to the Democratic party. That, I think, will persist in 2020 because Trump isn't exactly going anywhere, and 2018 turnout was pretty close to what we can expect in 2020 rather than only Democrats but not Republicans turning out. We might understand that Trump and the Republican party are philosophically identical, but does this exurban demographic? It would be great if this was a partisan realignment, but it could just as well be a reaction to Trump's horrible idiosyncrasies. Voting patterns are sticky and all, but these are real FYGM people. A GOP with a quieter fascist is going to get a lot of these voters back. Obviously 2020 is going to be a referendum on Trump, but after that?
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Nov 8, 2018 17:36
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:For about 35-40 minutes on Tuesday night, so were we A lot of the right has a vague idea of the same thing that leftists realise; that mainstream Democrat messaging is hollow and most primarily targeted at 'swing voter' and 'moderate' demographics that don't exist, and establishment Democrats are desperately trying to win with the absolute minimum possible to minimise expectations.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:37
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https://twitter.com/noamscheiber/status/1060564693646012416 This is a good thread to pour some cold water on beliefs that Michigan will easily swing back to Democrats in 2020.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:37
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evilweasel posted:I probably agree with this, because it looks like what happened in the House was more of a partisan realignment than a pure enthusiasm gap. 2010 was an enthusiasm gap, but then it was gerrymandered into being locked in - Democrats could have taken it back in 2012 but for the gerrymandering. Here, it looks like suburbs who shifted from Romney to Clinton but still hadn't rejected the Republican party (still believing that "good republicans" existed and would be a check on Trump) fully defected to the Democratic party. That, I think, will persist in 2020 because Trump isn't exactly going anywhere, and 2018 turnout was pretty close to what we can expect in 2020 rather than only Democrats but not Republicans turning out. It's absolutely a semi-permanent realignment. Soccer moms hate Trump and chuds with a vengeance. They might have been persuaded to vote Republican if there were any untainted Republicans left, but there aren't and won't be anytime soon, so that's over. Unless the Dems nominate Oprah, their floor in 2020 will be +2% nationwide and a very similar result to 2016 except they'll also flip 2-3 Senate seats at minimum. I think the median outcome with this economy is very close to 2018.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:38
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VitalSigns posted:Manchin filibustered the DREAM Act when every Democratic vote mattered because a few Republicans had crossed the aisle to support it. You're correct on that. He's not good, I think he's just less bad, in ways that can matter sometimes. Anyway no more Manchinchat.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:38
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https://twitter.com/shaunking/status/1060561439520419841?s=20
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Nov 8, 2018 17:39
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Flip Yr Wig posted:We might understand that Trump and the Republican party are philosophically identical, but does this exurban demographic? It would be great if this was a partisan realignment, but it could just as well be a reaction to Trump's horrible idiosyncrasies. Voting patterns are sticky and all, but these are real FYGM people. A GOP with a quieter fascist is going to get a lot of these voters back. Obviously 2020 is going to be a referendum on Trump, but after that? I don't know that suburbs are lost forever to the Republican party, but two more years of Republicans and Trump being tied at the hip makes it harder. I also do not know if you can go back to dogwhistling because the racist base will have gotten used to people saying it out loud and may reject people who won't. But yeah, I'm not at all suggesting any sort of permanent democratic majority here that will persist for decades, more saying that the 2018 results are more directly applicable to 2020 based on the turnout patterns than the average midterm.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:39
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:Is it possible that Trump really got so high on his own supply that he thought Republicans would retain the House? Is that why the chuds are so angry, despite the Senate results? this is worth doing a dive into, actually. the core of the chud phenomenon, in all its hideous expressions, is rooted in the fact nobody thought Trump was going to win, including them. they could safely imagine that all would be made well, everything would have been fixed, if only Trump was President. imagine if Obama had been trailing McCain from moment one. how utterly mind-breaking would election night have been! all the dreams, everything you have had to convince yourself is beyond all hope of ever happening- IT'S REAL NOW, AND IT WILL HAPPEN as such, everything about the die-hard Trump fanbase is based on the realization that no, your darkest, deepest dreams CAN come true. sure, all the polls said a blue wave of some form was coming. but all the polls said Trump was going to lose. surely, the same raw elemental force of their hatred was going to save them again! but now it appears that no, actually there is more to it than that, and they are angry because the way they needed the world to function has not happened. expect violence to keep kicking up. because as far as they're concerned they hoped Trump into office, and now that hope is being dashed.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:39
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evilweasel posted:https://twitter.com/noamscheiber/status/1060564693646012416 Oh god that means Trump is going to be in my state 6,000 times again in 2020 fml. And I'm in a very chuddy area, too.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:40
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axeil posted:edit: actually poo poo, if the House impeaches is the Senate forced to have a hearing or can The Turtle just Merrick Garland it? This is why people betting their sanity on a genius Democrat 5D chess play forcing "reasonable Republicans" to indict Trump are in for bad times
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Nov 8, 2018 17:40
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Feh, holding Trump accountable using the methods available to us? Sounds like decorum.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:40
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I mean, the only thing Trump needs to do to really cement a win is to start a war.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:40
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Rent-A-Cop posted:It's a big win for the galaxy brain: impeaching trump is bad because i don't like democrats
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Nov 8, 2018 17:41
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Calling him a "white man" shooter is race washing the issue. He was a white man, yes, but he was also a veteran with PTSD, whom had sought help before, couldn't get it, and was unstable. He didn't shoot people because he was white.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:41
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axeil posted:edit: actually poo poo, if the House impeaches is the Senate forced to have a hearing or can The Turtle just Merrick Garland it? The Chief Justice presides over impeachment if the President is the one impeached, so no the Senate Majority Leader can't stop it from happening 
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Nov 8, 2018 17:41
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Kimsemus posted:Calling him a "white man" shooter is race washing the issue. He was a white man, yes, but he was also a veteran with PTSD, whom had sought help before, couldn't get it, and was unstable. He didn't shoot people because he was white. woosh.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:41
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:this is worth doing a dive into, actually. very true but to be fair, we had the same fears, i mean look at the nothing matters types. granted we are weird political grognards who pull everything apart in our dark rooms but we also got affected by the fear. I think its a little better now though.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:42
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