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Russian gas is a two way street. Russia is way more reliant on those exports than the EU is. New sources of gas are already coming online in the next few years (particularly LNG terminals but also connections to Israel's recently discovered field in the Mediterranean). There is a lot of shale gas potential in Sweden, and Norway has considerable reserves as well. The worst thing Russia could do is turn off the tap in a way that permanently results in European countries moving to new sources. Mortabis fucked around with this message at 16:21 on Nov 26, 2018 |
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Nov 26, 2018 16:18
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Mortabis posted:Russian gas is a two way street. Russia is way more reliant on those exports than the EU is. New sources of gas are already coming online in the next few years (particularly LNG terminals but also connections to Israel's recently discovered field in the Mediterranean). There is a lot of shale gas potential in Sweden, and Norway has considerable reserves as well. See also: OPEC and their oil embargo in the 70s. This kind of strongarming only gets you so far, especially when your economy is kinda heavily based on being an energy supplier.
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Nov 26, 2018 16:28
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Mortabis posted:Russian gas is a two way street. Russia is way more reliant on those exports than the EU is. New sources of gas are already coming online in the next few years (particularly LNG terminals but also connections to Israel's recently discovered field in the Mediterranean). There is a lot of shale gas potential in Sweden, and Norway has considerable reserves as well. And besides, Russia has already been working on infrastructure that could lead to them selectively being able turn off the tap to Ukraine, while still supplying Central and Western Europe.
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Nov 26, 2018 17:57
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Remember a couple of years ago how the oil sands up in the mid-north states boomed when oil hit a certain point? Yeah, sure the oil costs more but no one is going without if Russia embargoes the Ukraine or the EU.
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Nov 26, 2018 20:50
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It's not really that simple. Oil != Natural Gas. Pipelines are way easier than ships. When Russia and Ukraine were in open combat, Central and Western Europe kept buying energy from Russia. Oil extraction in the middle east, generally, is both cheaper and higher quality than US middle-America extraction. And the supply lines to Europe are shorter. And drat near everyone but the USA didn't pull out of JCPOA. About 35-40% of all natural gas in the entire EU comes from Russia. That's a lot of leverage to more or less ignore something that's been considered a Russian satellite since the 1920s.
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Nov 26, 2018 21:03
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shame on an IGA posted:One Weird Trick To Hate FL410 This got lost in the shuffle a few pages back but I laughed. 
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Nov 26, 2018 21:30
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mlmp08 posted:It's not really that simple. Oil != Natural Gas. Pipelines are way easier than ships. When Russia and Ukraine were in open combat, Central and Western Europe kept buying energy from Russia. The US is the worlds largest natural gas producer. Yes, it would be more expensive to ship NG to the EU than to pipe it from Russia. But also, as the price rises new alternatives will be found or old ones will become feasible. I am probably naive but I don't think the problem is lack of alternatives as much as it's entrenched powerful interests not wanting to lose wealth or power. However, turning a blind eye to Putin flopping his dick on the table and saying, "I am taking this, gently caress you." seems intolerable to me. Especially when the people of that country have expressly made themselves heard as not wanting to be a Russian satellite.
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Nov 26, 2018 21:56
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Shooting Blanks posted:England has a reasonable shot of seizing assets, there is a ton of Russian money tied up there. Unfortunately they haven't really shown the political will to do so, even after Russia has (allegedly) murdered people on British soil.
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Nov 26, 2018 22:10
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Murgos posted:Yes, it would be more expensive to ship NG to the EU than to pipe it from Russia. I invite you to enter "gilets jaunes" in Google News to find out what happens when oil or gas becomes more expensive for political reasons.
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Nov 26, 2018 22:19
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shame on an IGA posted:One Weird Trick To Hate FL410 "We're gonna hit houses, dude."
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Nov 26, 2018 23:06
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The problem with Russian gas is switching costs. The Russians have some but not unlimited leverage to manipulate the Europeans with the gas valve. Once they use up that leverage it's gone forever. Latvia installed an LNG terminal to import gas from Norway, which prevents Russia from cutting them off and also dramatically reduced the price Russia can demand for gas from them. Other countries are following suit. It may not be long before the threat of cutting off heat in the winter becomes empty.
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Nov 27, 2018 03:58
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Hauldren Collider posted:Their "navy" consisted, in this case, of a patrol boat and a cargo ship parked under a bridge I actually don't think they expected the situation to escalate like this, but I do think they parked there to show the flag.
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Nov 27, 2018 04:03
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https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-Relations/Japan-to-order-100-more-F-35-fighters-from-US Japan is buying F-35Bs and plans to modify the Izumo class helicopter carriers to support them.
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Nov 27, 2018 04:06
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Hauldren Collider posted:https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-Relations/Japan-to-order-100-more-F-35-fighters-from-US Well I am shocked at this revelation.
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Nov 27, 2018 04:55
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Helicopter Destroyers, please! Not carriers!! Oh my no ha ha.
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Nov 27, 2018 05:08
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Of course one of them is named Kaga.
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Nov 27, 2018 05:37
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priznat posted:Helicopter Destroyers, please! Not carriers!! Oh my no ha ha. It would be great if when the time comes to decommission then they let the USN do the sinkex, just for old times sake.
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Nov 27, 2018 05:39
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crazyivan45 posted:Of course one of them is named Kaga. A lot of JMSDF ships share names with Imperial Japanese Navy ships since they are named after the same concepts or geographic features. There's also an Akagi, Kongo, Chokai, and Kirishima among others.
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Nov 27, 2018 05:43
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Cyrano4747 posted:It would be great if when the time comes to decommission then they let the USN do the sinkex, just for old times sake. I have a better idea. Space Battleship Makeover Party starring Grimes.
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Nov 27, 2018 05:45
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priznat posted:Helicopter Destroyers, please! Not carriers!! Oh my no ha ha. Apparently they actually have some VLS cells. I wonder if that was added just to maintain the bizarre notion that they are destroyers despite no one ever actually believing that at any point. EDIT: nevermind, apparently that's the Hyuga class, its predecessor. Which also looks, uh, like a carrier.  You can kinda see them in the back corner. Hauldren Collider fucked around with this message at 05:51 on Nov 27, 2018 |
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Nov 27, 2018 05:49
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That's a really weird place to put a CIWS, and I *really* hope it's programmed to have a limited engagement arc that doesn't, you know, spray down the flight deck with 20mm if it ever has to traverse over it.
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Nov 27, 2018 06:21
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BIG HEADLINE posted:That's a really weird place to put a CIWS, and I *really* hope it's programmed to have a limited engagement arc that doesn't, you know, spray down the flight deck with 20mm if it ever has to traverse over it. Tunguska malfunctions in the worst/most hilarious way. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5djvOTzRZ0 EDIT: Or possibly the gunner's hand just slipped. Throatwarbler fucked around with this message at 08:29 on Nov 27, 2018 |
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Nov 27, 2018 08:27
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mlmp08 posted:It's not really that simple. Oil != Natural Gas. Pipelines are way easier than ships. When Russia and Ukraine were in open combat, Central and Western Europe kept buying energy from Russia. I mean, a lot longer than that. There was no independent Ukraine in the 19th century. Or like ever before then unless you maybe count the Cossacks for a bit.
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Nov 27, 2018 10:42
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Murgos posted:Especially when the people of that country have expressly made themselves heard as not wanting to be a Russian satellite. This particular part is kind of complicated though. Eastern Ukraine and Crimea (the bits Russia took, with the help of the locals in the former case) are actually full of Russian speakers who did heavily lean towards Moscow before all this went down. 'The People' were and are not a unitary voice on this one. It's like saying 'the people' of Britain want Brexit.
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Nov 27, 2018 10:46
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mlmp08 posted:About 35-40% of all natural gas in the entire EU comes from Russia. That's a lot of leverage to more or less ignore something that's been considered a Russian satellite since the 1920s. That figure is kind of misleading in a lot of ways. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/stati..._oils_to_the_EU Of all energy imports, natural gas is only 20% of the total imports. The importance of natural gas tends to get overplayed a lot, especially since the Russian slice of the total imports has been decreasing since the Georgian war. It could be argued that the export of natural gas is far more important to Russia than it is for the EU countries to buy it from Russia.
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Nov 27, 2018 12:25
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feedmegin posted:I mean, a lot longer than that. There was no independent Ukraine in the 19th century. So, how do you suppose they ended up with their own language and cultural identity? Why do you think this matters, anyways? Awful lot of places were independent or changed hands constantly right up until they didn't anymore - and they generally ended up a lot better off when the foreign power hosed off. Edit: Votes were actually held concerning independence or joining Russia in the decades prior to the invasion. There was never a majority in favor of either, even in Crimea. It's loving crazy that you look at a blatant military invasion followed by ethnic cleansing & military occupation and imply the locals totally wanted to be annexed. Also, there were token locals in both Crimea and Donbass - but there were also a shitload of Russian "volunteers", state-run mercenaries, regular troops, and the entire "rebel" leadership was/still is loving Russian nationals and intelligence officers on vacation. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 13:58 on Nov 27, 2018 |
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Nov 27, 2018 13:40
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For Crimea's population being over 90% Russian, Vlad can thank the USSR and its policy of deporting non-Russian ethnic groups (such as the Tatars in this case) to some other backwater place so as to put Russians instead. That's also why there are large "non-citizen" populations in the Baltic states.
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Nov 27, 2018 15:30
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Kemper Boyd posted:That figure is kind of misleading in a lot of ways. OK, but take a country that’s mighty important in the EU, Germany. 40% of both its gas and oil come from Russia. That does not make Germany some puppet state, as is lately in vogue to say by certain Americans these days. But it surely is significant. And when natural gas consumption is mostly winter heat production for civilians, that makes it a very high profile part of the energy sector, even if not the largest portion of the energy sector.
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Nov 27, 2018 15:33
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mlmp08 posted:OK, but take a country that’s mighty important in the EU, Germany. 40% of both its gas and oil come from Russia. That does not make Germany some puppet state, as is lately in vogue to say by certain Americans these days. But it surely is significant. Trump would be happy to ship them coal.
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Nov 27, 2018 16:40
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mlmp08 posted:OK, but take a country that’s mighty important in the EU, Germany. 40% of both its gas and oil come from Russia. That does not make Germany some puppet state, as is lately in vogue to say by certain Americans these days. But it surely is significant. Good thing my family in Germany just loaded up three houses with fuel oil! You realize how important natural gas in W. Europe is when you don't have an alternative. Three families spending a minimum of 2000USD, each, just to get a truck out to the village. These are not people with money. Ironically, the Russia Germans who have moved there are the folks least able to afford the cost. (we help out) At least it isn't as cold as it used to be in that area. Thanks, global warming! I do worry about tornadoes though, 100mph roof tiles and all.
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Nov 27, 2018 17:15
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Throatwarbler posted:Tunguska malfunctions in the worst/most hilarious way. That escalated quickly. *blyat*
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Nov 27, 2018 17:29
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Don Gato posted:A lot of JMSDF ships share names with Imperial Japanese Navy ships since they are named after the same concepts or geographic features. There's also an Akagi, Kongo, Chokai, and Kirishima among others. Yep. The WWII ships which made those names famous were sometimes the second or third to hold them. OTOH the Royal Navy has gone through seven Warspites and is working on its tenth Dreadnought so the JMSDF has some catching up to do.
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Nov 27, 2018 18:18
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Kemper Boyd posted:That figure is kind of misleading in a lot of ways. That is all for the better. And lets keep the trend moving. But gas is good for heating and also for covering high peaks. Turbines can start quickly and add to the grid when needed. Or at least thats what the energy generation thread teaches me.
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Nov 27, 2018 18:31
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InAndOutBrennan posted:That is all for the better. And lets keep the trend moving. I have a friend that works for a company that has a plant that's primarily in charge of taking care of those peaks. They have a modified GE Turbine Engine (the kind you see on airliners) that they can spool up in minutes. I believe that it's modified to run on natural gas. (I'm going to ask him some more detailed questions next time I see him). Edit: Same guy I was talking about in the China thread whose company just got bought out by a CCP owned company, and now there are a ton of mainlanders ransacking the company for info and learning all they can to make their industry more competitive. I'm not worried about the Chinese military in the least, I'm worried that we will have sold everything to China before we find out that their economy is a rotten shell, and that we only needed to hold off giving them the keys to the house for a few more years.
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Nov 27, 2018 18:36
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Murgos posted:Trump would be happy to ship them coal. Germany is already strip-mining itself for coal, there's a reason they have (and make) the largest bucket-wheel excavators in the world.
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Nov 27, 2018 19:25
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Cat Mattress posted:Germany is already strip-mining itself for coal, there's a reason they have (and make) the largest bucket-wheel excavators in the world. Still there's actually a lot of excess production and (I think?) port capacity in the US for coal exports. Either way I don't think Russia's current accounts situation enables them to just shut off the gas without massive hyperinflation. Mortabis fucked around with this message at 19:44 on Nov 27, 2018 |
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Nov 27, 2018 19:41
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Cat Mattress posted:Germany is already strip-mining itself for coal, there's a reason they have (and make) the largest bucket-wheel excavators in the world. Didn't Merkel pretty much kill their entire nuclear industry after the Fukushima disaster because people were protesting? She said something like "every plant will be shut down by 2020" or something like that. Last I looked, ~1/2 of their power is imported from other countries, but the remainder is divided like so. 
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Nov 27, 2018 19:45
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Cat Mattress posted:Germany is already strip-mining itself for coal, there's a reason they have (and make) the largest bucket-wheel excavators in the world. Also to defend against godzillas and robots from the future https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azEvfD4C6ow
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Nov 27, 2018 19:47
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If there’s one thing that bothers me about modern energy is the stigma against nuclear because most of the general public doesn’t understand even basic concepts related to it. I have routinely had people surprised that nuclear plants can not explode like a nuclear bomb.
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Nov 27, 2018 20:00
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Blistex posted:I have a friend that works for a company that has a plant that's primarily in charge of taking care of those peaks. They have a modified GE Turbine Engine (the kind you see on airliners) that they can spool up in minutes. I believe that it's modified to run on natural gas. (I'm going to ask him some more detailed questions next time I see him). Both GE and P&W have long histories of marine/power generation adaptations of almost all of their respective aviation turbojets and turbofans. The USNs non-nuclear ships almost all use LM2500 and variants for propulsion.
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Nov 27, 2018 20:07
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