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cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



pokie posted:

How does the trap work?

I share the same theory that a lot of others are kicking around:

1) Mueller questions manafort, via questioning manafort can basically determine what mueller does and does not know (hint he knows the answers already)
2) Manafort shoots some bullshit answers, they are lies more or less
3) Manafort passes that info along to trumps team and can basically get on the same page with the lies
4) Trump submits written answers based on this info
5) Mueller shows a judge that Manafort is lying, and now somehow conveniently in lock step with the answers trump submitted
6) ???? obstruction or conspiracy or some poo poo

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Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

sexpig by night posted:

I mean, either NATO is gonna get us into ww3 within the next few months or maybe we should just admit it's a relic and let it die.

Like, I'm not a fan of the idea of going into nuclear winter over a loving eastern bloc border dispute so I'm fine with 'let it die' but this dust up is literally what NATO is supposed to prevent and it's not, maybe we can stop all the posturing and massive defense contracts now

sexpig weak on climate change, opposed to saving world

pokie
Apr 27, 2008

IT HAPPENED!

Brony Car posted:

What the hell does anyone mean by "Open Borders?" I never heard that term before Trump and other Republicans used it to justify crackdowns on all kinds of immigration regardless of legality. It gives people the impression of having no customs or passport checks and just letting BAD HOMBRES come in to seduce our pure white daughters.

An open border is a border that enables free movement of people between different jurisdictions with few or no restrictions on movement, that is to say lacking substantive border control.

cr0y posted:

I share the same theory that a lot of others are kicking around:

1) Mueller questions manafort, via questioning manafort can basically determine what mueller does and does not know (hint he knows the answers already)
2) Manafort shoots some bullshit answers, they are lies more or less
3) Manafort passes that info along to trumps team and can basically get on the same page with the lies
4) Trump submits written answers based on this info
5) Mueller shows a judge that Manafort is lying, and now somehow conveniently in lock step with the answers trump submitted
6) ???? obstruction or conspiracy or some poo poo

Thanks, friend.

Skex
Feb 22, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 12 hours!

RaySmuckles posted:

skex, you focus so much on terrorists coming in over the boarder, so my question is: when has that ever happened before?

what is the scenario where that would even happen? i find it to be in the realm of dangerous nat-sec self-wanking fantasy

to me, terrorist attacks are much more likely to be as clandestine as possible, which means as little "sneaking" as possible. just coming in and overstaying a visa; not being someone that would be recognizable enough to have to hide in the first place. the idea of some sort of mass infiltration over the boarder is much, much more unlikely. it just seems completely unrealistic; the subject of fiction, not reality

Have you looked up the definition of clandestine?

Brony Car
May 22, 2014

by Cyrano4747

pokie posted:

An open border is a border that enables free movement of people between different jurisdictions with few or no restrictions on movement, that is to say lacking substantive border control.

Like the US and Canada?

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

Typo posted:

ukraine is not part of nato, nato is meant to defend its member state and it's unironically legit to have buffer states between russia and nato

Right but you don't see how 'NATO exists to check Russian expansion and protect Europe' and 'but also we have some expendable chump states between the members and Russia so they can eat THOSE guys and it's fine' are inherently conflicting ideals? Like, either the red menace must be prevented from expanding its borders (and to be clear I don't think Russia is somehow the 'good guy' here, imperialism is bad, I shouldn't have to say this but I do wanna be clear) or it's actually fine if it expands its borders for a little as long as they don't mess with the people who's economy matters.

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

GreyjoyBastard posted:

sexpig weak on climate change, opposed to saving world

one day someone's gonna use the phrase 'nuclear winter' around Trump and we have 50/50 odds that he's gonna try to nuke the sun to fix global warming anyway. We don't gotta try to add a war to it!

Skex
Feb 22, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 12 hours!

Rigel posted:

There is not a significant number of politicians and no national politicians advocating open borders. Allowing putative asylees in and evaluating their claims is not open borders, and not placing a high priority on deportations is also not open borders.

Hard-core strict (and probably illegal) immigration policy is a loser. Trump went all in on stopping the invading brown horde and the voters rejected his argument rather decisively.

Seriously? Read the thread, the entire premise of the exchange is that I'm some sort of dirty privileged centrist because I wasn't a full throated advocate for open borders now.

Lightning Knight
Feb 24, 2012

Pray for Answer

Chilichimp posted:

I'm not in favor of open borders, but I'm all for easily obtained legal residence, free movement within the US (and back/forth to home country), freedom to work in the US (and pay taxes to the US for any income earned here), and am against the existence of a federal immigrant enforcement task force.

We could easily have the IRS track immigrant residency when they file their taxes and, should the need to arrest someone arise, file complaints with the secret service which can then coordinate local law enforcement. Deportation should only be a punishment for a violent crime and and would have to be handed down by a judge. Not a kangaroo immigration court that reports to the DOJ, the Judge who presides over the case in which they were convicted.

https://www.currentaffairs.org/2017/12/what-would-humane-immigration-policy-actually-look-like

quote:


But what scheme of immigration regulation should the left actually pursue, then? In my view, we’ve dithered on this question long enough, and made far too many inhumane concessions in the process: now that we have arrived at a moment where favoring immigration and opposing Trump are becoming increasingly merged in the public imagination, it’s time to go big or go home. Our position should be simple, and ambitious. In the long term—and I don’t think we should hide the ball about this—our goal should be to ensure that anybody who wants to come to the U.S. and live and work peaceably should be allowed to do so. If an immigrant has been in the U.S. for some period of time and want to settle here permanently, they should be able to do that, too.

I do not think being pro-free movement or pro-open borders as a general matter means committing to the position that a region can never restrict immigration under any circumstances. Almost every argument adduced for limiting immigration to wealthy countries is utterly specious—the U.S., in particular, is the world’s third-largest country geographically and its 179th-most densely populated, so the idea that we “can’t” take more people is a ludicrously transparent lie—but nevertheless, every region does have some genuine resource constraints. There may be situations of political unrest, natural disaster, or economic crisis that are so serious that admitting more population is actually dangerous. For example, Lebanon is currently hosting 172 Syrian refugees for every 1000 of its citizens: that means that a full 30% of its population are refugees. This is a pretty big burden for any small state to shoulder, and the situation cannot possibly go on indefinitely, especially if Lebanon finds itself spiraling towards governmental collapse, or under attack by a neighboring country. Though it’s hard to imagine how an exactly parallel situation could ever arise in the U.S., due to its sheer size, there may, someday, be other disaster scenarios that would qualify in the U.S. context.

The point is, we should treat immigration restrictions as time-limited responses to specific, articulable conditions, not as a default mode. To the extent that immigration might need to be restricted or regulated more closely in certain emergency circumstances, our concern must be to admit immigrants primarily on the basis of need, and the direness of the situation they will face if returned, not according to factors like nationality, wealth, education, or ability, which is how our U.S. system presently operates.

All this, however, is the long game. We certainly can’t arrive at a more open immigration system overnight, and I think that there’s a hierarchy of intermediary policy goals that would alleviate some of the most unconscionable effects of our present system, while laying the groundwork for a future immigration system that looks entirely different. Here, I’ll outline several policy changes that would benefit immigrants who are already present in the U.S., and individuals who face serious dangers in their home countries. (Stay tuned for part three, which will deal with visa allotments, employment-based immigration, and admissions more generally.)

There's more to this article.

Crabtree
Oct 17, 2012

ARRRGH! Get that wallet out!
Everybody: Lowtax in a Pickle!
Pickle! Pickle! Pickle! Pickle!

Dinosaur Gum

pokie posted:

How does the trap work?

You know how Manaford is a sack of poo poo that will lie and cheat no matter what? Set up a way for him to royally gently caress himself doing this exact thing and implicate Trump, while giving yourself the opportunity to make public record of the kind of questions you can easily prove both he and Trump lie about.

Its basically setting up a way for a pig to cut its own head off by setting a door to a troth up to like a shotgun or a guillotine blade.

ded redd
Aug 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy

sexpig by night posted:

one day someone's gonna use the phrase 'nuclear winter' around Trump and we have 50/50 odds that he's gonna try to nuke the sun to fix global warming anyway. We don't gotta try to add a war to it!

The sun burned him once, now he's gonna burn it back.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

sexpig by night posted:

Right but you don't see how 'NATO exists to check Russian expansion and protect Europe' and 'but also we have some expendable chump states between the members and Russia so they can eat THOSE guys and it's fine' are inherently conflicting ideals? Like, either the red menace must be prevented from expanding its borders (and to be clear I don't think Russia is somehow the 'good guy' here, imperialism is bad, I shouldn't have to say this but I do wanna be clear) or it's actually fine if it expands its borders for a little as long as they don't mess with the people who's economy matters.

No, I don't, NATO doesn't exist to protect Europe or some abstract idea of freedom of all peoples from Russian influence, NATO exist to guarantee a security of a specific set of states. NATO exists for reasons of realpolitik, not abstract ideas about liberation.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Skex posted:

I also recognize that there are people out there who do wish us harm. And the last thing that we need is for there to be a major attack on American soil particularly after living through 9/11 and the aftermath as one of the few people trying to explain that invading Afghanistan was a stupid idea that gave Al Qeda exactly what they wanted. Particularly given that the Taliban basically said "show us evidence that he was behind the attack and we'll turn him over".

So yeah I'm not big on the idea of an unsecured border because having been trained in anti-terrorism and having a pretty good idea of how things work and having witnessed just how eager the public in America are to bomb the poo poo out of people, after having watched W go from an unpopular likely 1 term President to a two term disaster leaving us with a legacy of torture, GITMO and two wars that are still going I'm not eager to provide the right with an obvious path for their Reichstag fire.

There's major attacks on US soil on what almost seems like a weekly basis these days. Domestic terrorism is a much bigger issue than the gh

sexpig by night posted:

I mean, either NATO is gonna get us into ww3 within the next few months or maybe we should just admit it's a relic and let it die.

Like, I'm not a fan of the idea of going into nuclear winter over a loving eastern bloc border dispute so I'm fine with 'let it die' but this dust up is literally what NATO is supposed to prevent and it's not, maybe we can stop all the posturing and massive defense contracts now

Ultimately, NATO should have been disbanded in the early 90s when its purpose as an anti-Soviet alliance was rendered obsolete. Keeping it around and also extending it eastward just for the hell of it was never going to end well.

RaySmuckles
Oct 14, 2009


:vapes:
Grimey Drawer

Skex posted:

Have you looked up the definition of clandestine?

yes. my point is that its less suspicious to get people in who are able to just get in under normal circumstances. no need to sneak across the boarder, just bring someone in who can get a visa. get someone who can pass the checks, not have to stay hidden the whole time, necessitating some kind of boarder infiltration

that seems to be how the 9/11 guys got in.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes
also there's not gonna be a war guys, border clashes happen all the time but neither putin nor preshenko wants to escalate it into a war so there won't be a war

OAquinas
Jan 27, 2008

Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.
There's an important side benefit to this: in order to prove perjury, you need to have the subject matter in question entered into the record. This sidesteps executive privilege and other tactics that could be used to gag Mueller.

So it works as both a "gently caress you--prison time!" trap and as a way to get your findings released without congress or the executive burying it under a parking lot.

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

Typo posted:

No, I don't, NATO doesn't exist to protect Europe or some abstract idea of freedom of all peoples from Russian influence, NATO exist to guarantee a security of a specific set of states. NATO exists for reasons of realpolitik, not abstract ideas about liberation.

great so we agree it doesn't actually have any ethos that matters aside from 'these specific wealthy states want to be Double Secret Safe and gently caress everyone else', so let's just get rid of it and we can focus on organizations like, say, the UN and the EU and all that do exist as a more wide reaching body to deal with these moments like this without the inherent danger of escalation.

Kerning Chameleon
Apr 8, 2015

by Cyrano4747

Typo posted:

also there's not gonna be a war guys, border clashes happen all the time but neither putin nor preshenko wants to escalate it into a war so there won't be a war

also, most european states and their leaders didn't want a war to happen in the 1910s, so there wasn't a war, bing bong so simple

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Main Paineframe posted:


Ultimately, NATO should have been disbanded in the early 90s when its purpose as an anti-Soviet alliance was rendered obsolete. Keeping it around and also extending it eastward just for the hell of it was never going to end well.

expanding NATO eastwards per say was never a problem, yeah the russians complained but it's not like they want to invade Poland or Hungary again so doesn't really matter when it became part of NATO.

it only became a problem when former Soviet Republics Georgia and Ukraine became potential members, the Russians are realpolitik thinkers, where the line fall on the map matters a lot to them

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



Crabtree posted:

You know how Manaford is a sack of poo poo that will lie and cheat no matter what? Set up a way for him to royally gently caress himself doing this exact thing and implicate Trump, while giving yourself the opportunity to make public record of the kind of questions you can easily prove both he and Trump lie about.

Its basically setting up a way for a pig to cut its own head off by setting a door to a troth up to like a shotgun or a guillotine blade.

Also i think if this is the actual setup, that being manafort and trump legal teams conspiring to lie, attorney client privilege would be dissolved as it was lawyers acting to further a crime. Its the same way Cohen managed to get his office raided and have almost no documents protected.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Kerning Chameleon posted:

also, most european states and their leaders didn't want a war to happen in the 1910s, so there wasn't a war, bing bong so simple

no literally every single country in europe in 1914 actively made a decision to go to war, literally everyone had a chance to back off but they didn't.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

I am definitely going to have to read it in its entirety, and to nobody's particular surprise my schlong is firmly erect at that last paragraph

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

sexpig by night posted:

great so we agree it doesn't actually have any ethos that matters aside from 'these specific wealthy states want to be Double Secret Safe and gently caress everyone else', so let's just get rid of it and we can focus on organizations like, say, the UN and the EU and all that do exist as a more wide reaching body to deal with these moments like this without the inherent danger of escalation.

the eu has no military teeth and would not include the US/Canada

the UN is a joke

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

RaySmuckles posted:

yes. my point is that its less suspicious to get people in who are able to just get in under normal circumstances. no need to sneak across the boarder, just bring someone in who can get a visa. get someone who can pass the checks, not have to stay hidden the whole time, necessitating some kind of boarder infiltration

I feel like everyone uses the term "open border" wildly different, like this seems to be talking about a system where the physical border is unwalled (an open border) but there is still 'the checks" and a visa system. when the other guy is talking about a totally open immigration system (an open border) where they stop having visas and doing checks.

Pellisworth
Jun 20, 2005

cr0y posted:

I share the same theory that a lot of others are kicking around:

1) Mueller questions manafort, via questioning manafort can basically determine what mueller does and does not know (hint he knows the answers already)
2) Manafort shoots some bullshit answers, they are lies more or less
3) Manafort passes that info along to trumps team and can basically get on the same page with the lies
4) Trump submits written answers based on this info
5) Mueller shows a judge that Manafort is lying, and now somehow conveniently in lock step with the answers trump submitted
6) ???? obstruction or conspiracy or some poo poo

There was a reply on Popehat's twitter about how the Manafort plea deal did not include a gag order.

But yeah the theory going around is basically that Mueller suspected Manafort would try to coordinate lies with Trump and didn't pull Manafort's plea deal until after Trump submitted written answers, presumably using the same lies Manafort did.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Typo posted:

no literally every single country in europe in 1914 actively made a decision to go to war, literally everyone had a chance to back off but they didn't.

That's not true, in Germany the military brass dragged the civilian governments into a general war, basically against their will.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

cr0y posted:

Also i think if this is the actual setup, that being manafort and trump legal teams conspiring to lie, attorney client privilege would be dissolved as it was lawyers acting to further a crime. Its the same way Cohen managed to get his office raided and have almost no documents protected.

I cannot possibly accept the idea of Mueller being so brilliant that he duped them into exploding privilege

but that's more "I reject your reality and substitute my own" and less "I think Teams Manafort and Trump would successfully avoid climbing into a box with NOT A TRAP painted on the side"

Chef Boyardeez Nuts
Sep 9, 2011

The more you kick against the pricks, the more you suffer.
This is mostly preaching to the choir but the big reason that Western Europe isn't moving to check Russian aggression is they don't have the capability to do so. NATO has always principally been a defensive alliance with the individual states working in tandem with the U.S. as the Heavy serving as a check against Russian incursion. Even with enthusiastic U.S. support, projecting power into Russia's backyard would be a significant challenge.

If the U.S. can't be counted on Western Europe could put together a force of it's own, but that would take a bunch of time and money that could really be used elsewhere if the U.S. is going to come to its senses eventually. It sucks for the Ukrainians stuck in the middle but Europe is already playing with House Money. Putin is trying to reign in his old sphere of influence.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Charlz Guybon posted:

That's not true, in Germany the military brass dragged the civilian governments into a general war, basically against their will.

in other words, they made the decision to go to war, you are just stating who the actual decision makers within germany are

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

Typo posted:

the eu has no military teeth and would not include the US/Canada

the UN is a joke

NATO also has no military teeth if all its resources are horded away from the buffer zone. Do you genuinely believe NATO could or should exist as a major military check on Russia if this magical situation happened to trigger it where Russia just ramjams through the former soviet states (which is fine and allowed by NATO so there'd be no reason to stop it) and suddenly was aimed at someone like Germany?

It's a relic of the anti-Soviet panic and exists only as a feel good safety totem (that happens to also involve massive defense spending)

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice
Who was going to get the ball rolling on disbanding NATO? You had several reasonable years of institutional inertia in which it didn't make sense to go to the effort and by the time the inertia may have been able to start petering out Russia started recovering and getting belligerent.

What should have happened was the EU/EEC should've extended some sort of special Russia exception membership where they could've gotten the benefits, loans, and credits needed to more gracefully transition to a market economy instead of Shock Therapy. If public ownership of firms was maintained instead of being sold off to corrupt officials at bargain bin prices you don't end up with Oligarchs enabling someone like Putin.

Also EEC pseudo-membership or the risk of losing it might have contained Yeltsin from his reverse coup against the Presidium and maintained some sort of sensibly democratic transition.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

I feel like everyone uses the term "open border" wildly different, like this seems to be talking about a system where the physical border is unwalled (an open border) but there is still 'the checks" and a visa system. when the other guy is talking about a totally open immigration system (an open border) where they stop having visas and doing checks.

heck, I support an extant visa system that is incredibly boring for the bureaucrats because other than "are you an international terrorist and/or nefarious capitalist Y/N" is basically a literal rubber stamp

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

sexpig by night posted:

NATO also has no military teeth if all its resources are horded away from the buffer zone. Do you genuinely believe NATO could or should exist as a major military check on Russia if this magical situation happened to trigger it where Russia just ramjams through the former soviet states (which is fine and allowed by NATO so there'd be no reason to stop it) and suddenly was aimed at someone like Germany?

It's a relic of the anti-Soviet panic and exists only as a feel good safety totem (that happens to also involve massive defense spending)

yes it's like in the cold war when russian tanks invaded prague and hungary and nato didn't declare war but that doesn't stop nato from defending west germany or italy

Dapper_Swindler
Feb 14, 2012

Im glad my instant dislike in you has been validated again and again.

Crabtree posted:

You know how Manaford is a sack of poo poo that will lie and cheat no matter what? Set up a way for him to royally gently caress himself doing this exact thing and implicate Trump, while giving yourself the opportunity to make public record of the kind of questions you can easily prove both he and Trump lie about.

Its basically setting up a way for a pig to cut its own head off by setting a door to a troth up to like a shotgun or a guillotine blade.

i just find it interesting that paul and don are this loving dumb. i mean i guess when you have been stealing candy from babies all your life your not prepared for the FBI. i mean there stupid poo poo worked before, why not now. to be a weird sad gently caress, it kinda reminds me of red dead 2 where the gang keeps going through the same cycle over and over again hoping that this time it will be different.

Dapper_Swindler fucked around with this message at 05:29 on Nov 28, 2018

Kerning Chameleon
Apr 8, 2015

by Cyrano4747

Chef Boyardeez Nuts posted:

This is mostly preaching to the choir but the big reason that Western Europe isn't moving to check Russian aggression is they don't have the capability to do so. NATO has always principally been a defensive alliance with the individual states working in tandem with the U.S. as the Heavy serving as a check against Russian incursion. Even with enthusiastic U.S. support, projecting power into Russia's backyard would be a significant challenge.

If the U.S. can't be counted on Western Europe could put together a force of it's own, but that would take a bunch of time and money that could really be used elsewhere if the U.S. is going to come to its senses eventually. It sucks for the Ukrainians stuck in the middle but Europe is already playing with House Money. Putin is trying to reign in his old sphere of influence.

That's a pretty nasty bet to lose if this doesn't happen, checkmate EUailures. :smuggo:

I mean, we in the US didn't invade North Korea in the 90s because we bet they'd just collapse internally soon, and look how that gamble worked out.

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

Typo posted:

yes it's like in the cold war when russian tanks invaded prague and hungary and nato didn't declare war but that doesn't stop nato from defending west germany or italy

Yea man I have a loving rock that keeps ISIS from invading Texas too, give me billions of dollars so I can maintain it.

pokie
Apr 27, 2008

IT HAPPENED!

Brony Car posted:

Like the US and Canada?

Well, people still have to pass through checkpoints and occasionally get arrested or have their phones taken away for taking pictures and stuff on that border.

So more like schengen zone in EU.

Crabtree posted:

You know how Manaford is a sack of poo poo that will lie and cheat no matter what? Set up a way for him to royally gently caress himself doing this exact thing and implicate Trump, while giving yourself the opportunity to make public record of the kind of questions you can easily prove both he and Trump lie about.

Its basically setting up a way for a pig to cut its own head off by setting a door to a troth up to like a shotgun or a guillotine blade.

Nice phrasing. Hopefully Trump's lawyers have been as inept as ever and fell for it.

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

sexpig by night posted:

Yea man I have a loving rock that keeps ISIS from invading Texas too, give me billions of dollars so I can maintain it.

yeah well good thing nato has tanks and airplanes and guns and poo poo and not just rocks

eke out
Feb 24, 2013



https://twitter.com/chrisgeidner/status/1067635300552314880

jayapal is an underrated Actually Good dem

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sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

Typo posted:

yeah well good thing nato has tanks and airplanes and guns and poo poo and not just rocks

see the joke was that NATO has literally never been used for its intended purpose (aside from wildly awesome missions like 'we're gonna gently caress around machine gunning pirates in the african waters because gently caress it') except as an excuse to get involved in the tarpit that is our military actions in the middle east. NATO has never been called on to defend Germany or Italy and that's by design.

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