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I don’t precisely understand why they wouldn’t admit there’s a problem? Is it a propaganda thing? A pride thing?
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Jan 14, 2019 05:28
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Lightning Knight posted:I see... so, what do they do about it? The time for easy fixes was a decade or so ago at the latest, things are pretty well hosed at this juncture (and the PSUV isn't even going to try to fix things without a massive purge of all their leadership and also the military leadership, so good luck with that). Shitloads of money that was supposed to keep things running or, you know, diversify away from oil has been stolen and a hearty chunk of national assets have been sold or used as collateral for some of that stolen money besides. Ironically, the US under Obama but mostly Trump put some significant barriers in front of selling MORE national assets to Goldman Sachs, but in some cases that meant they just got sold to China instead.  Making the price controls on basic goods survivable in one way or another is probably step zero that doesn't directly involve purging kleptocrats. it's infuriating, it would have been entirely possible to be either incredibly greedy but not morons, or morons but only reasonably greedy, and instead PSUV decided to be both
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Jan 14, 2019 05:31
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Lightning Knight posted:I don’t precisely understand why they wouldn’t admit there’s a problem? Is it a propaganda thing? A pride thing? Maduro and his henchmen are corrupt and incompetent on a massive scale.
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Jan 14, 2019 05:41
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Lightning Knight posted:I don’t precisely understand why they wouldn’t admit there’s a problem? Is it a propaganda thing? A pride thing? Presumably. Like the closest they'll come to admitting anything is wrong is claiming the CIA is waging economic war on them and that's why everything's awful but hey everything's great and the PSUV is prevailing against the nefarious actions of El Imperio. It's just the same old authoritarian bullshit where you claim nothing is wrong, and anything that your lying senses claim is wrong is clearly the result of The Enemy who is both insurmountable so you must give us total loyalty but don't worry, we will easily prevail over them. e: I think the actual first step no matter who is in charge is that the country needs to be made safer. Whether you're trying to reverse the brain drain of anyone who can afford to get the gently caress out doing so or get foreign workers in to unfuck the oil industry that's never going to happen when a major industry in the country is currently 'try to kidnap people who have money and hold them for ransom'. Feinne fucked around with this message at 05:48 on Jan 14, 2019 |
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Jan 14, 2019 05:43
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Feinne posted:There's no quick solution to what's going on because a lot of it stems from neglect. Even if oil prices were higher the industry in VZ is falling apart because it's being managed incredibly poorly. Yeah, fixing Venezuela's oil infrastructure is going to require billions in investment and a lot of technical expertise which is rapidly fleeing Venezuela. The problem is now so big I have a hard time believing even if the Venezuelan government started doing everything right it could fix it by itself -- Venezuela is going to have to sell much of PDVSA to foreign companies. Nobody's going to loan Venezuela the money to fix this mess, they're going to demand real assets.
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Jan 14, 2019 05:51
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Lightning Knight posted:Oh. That’s unfortunate. Also as an extraction economy heavily dependent on one export, large fluctuations in prices are something leaders should expect and plan for. Chavez didn't plan for anything and massive declines in living standard and or ballooning debt would have been inevitable with a price drop even without the other problems. By contrast, Evo Morales in Bolivia, another state heavily dependent on the export of a few commodities, has maintained a stable economy with continued moderate increases in living standards of average Bolivians despite major slumps in the price of exports. He managed that by actually being a sensible and realistic leader who payed attention to economic reality.
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Jan 14, 2019 05:59
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Squalid posted:Yeah, fixing Venezuela's oil infrastructure is going to require billions in investment and a lot of technical expertise which is rapidly fleeing Venezuela. The problem is now so big I have a hard time believing even if the Venezuelan government started doing everything right it could fix it by itself -- Venezuela is going to have to sell much of PDVSA to foreign companies. Nobody's going to loan Venezuela the money to fix this mess, they're going to demand real assets. Huge chunks of their oil industry has already been sold, in the form of collateral to get vulture loans that serve to keep the patronage networks running just that much longer. There is no real plan or expectation for these loans to be repayed. https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...m=.b75f7a514451
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Jan 14, 2019 06:02
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I dont know posted:Huge chunks of their oil industry has already been sold, in the form of collateral to get vulture loans that serve to keep the patronage networks running just that much longer. There is no real plan or expectation for these loans to be repayed. Yeah the fuckers in charge were not satisfied with stealing the country's present and also stole its future so they could sock away a little more loot.
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Jan 14, 2019 06:05
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I dont know posted:Huge chunks of their oil industry has already been sold, in the form of collateral to get vulture loans that serve to keep the patronage networks running just that much longer. There is no real plan or expectation for these loans to be repayed. I see Venezuela's already eaten more of their seed corn than I had anticipated. But really Venezuela's problems go much deeper than the oil industry. Since Chavez the country has gone out of its way to strangle every other industry too. The price ceilings are economic malpractice. Whose going to produce any goods when they are mandated to sell them at a loss? Certainly the state has not stepped up to fill the space abandoned by private industry.
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Jan 14, 2019 06:09
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Lightning Knight posted:Oh. That’s unfortunate. While oil prices are low PDVSA is aidimg a plummet in output. So oil price drop is bad, nut itd worse when uou only have 20% total output overall. And no rebates or quantity discounts because foreign investment has evaporated. As others have said the corruption is now stealing the oil still in the ground they pillaged the companies then pillaged the supply. There is nothing the current regime will do about the issues because they need to keep it going to keep power, once the generals supply of shiny cars and prenium food supplies the regime will fold or simply leave the country in a one night disappearance Now would military intervebntion help? Really depends on definition. Is the CIA training a few hundred of the MILLIONS of venezuelan refugees willimg to help overthrow the regime bay of pigs style a military intervention? What about simply arming the regime and no training? Venexuels lacks weaponry to fuel a rebellion, the mafia(figure of speech) elements in venezuela own most weaponry not in the governments hands. So very low availability. The US spilling a few 10,000 Aks into the country could very much tip the balance, (please understand im not advocating for dropping aks into venezuela this is just an option the cia has persued before as a form of aiding rebels) WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 06:25 on Jan 14, 2019 |
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Jan 14, 2019 06:13
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Squalid posted:I see Venezuela's already eaten more of their seed corn than I had anticipated. I mean I think the perfect example from a while back was the bakeries being well stocked with things like cake but bread was a fleeting thing that required you to get in lines incredibly early and get lucky, because the flour you used to make bread was more expensive than the bread itself so you just made as much as the government forced you to then stopped. It's the kind of poo poo that puts socialism into disrepute by giving gross libertarian assholes ammunition to claim 'oh those socialist central planners can't do anything right' when it's just a bunch of jumped-up bandits robbing the country blind while claiming they're the revolution.
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Jan 14, 2019 06:19
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Lightning Knight posted:Oh. That’s unfortunate. Everything is thoroughly and completely hosed. Things would probably be moderately hosed even if there had been a competent government, what the Maduro regime did was to accelerate and accentuate the loving at every turn. Venezuela is now at the bottom a very deep hole and there's no easy way out of it. The fact that the current government is continuing to dig doesn't help of course.
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Jan 14, 2019 06:26
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Thing is, if Venezuela had actually had a socialist economy, they'd probably be much better off. If the state had taken total control of production and distribution, they would have been able to produce goods in the quantities they wanted largely without caring about prices. Instead, they are imposing artificial (and massively ignorant) constraints on goods produced within a capitalist economy - and then they scream "sabotage" and "economic war" when the blind forces that Marx described in detail gently caress them over.
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Jan 14, 2019 09:49
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does anyone know how much gas is consumed domestically? Since this is essentially free nowadays, I imagine there is not much reason to try to be frugal with it at any point in the supply chain or by end users. the prices I can find say about 0,01 usd / litre. One pretty obvious way to staunch the bleeding in the short term would be to disincentivize onstentatious consumption. this is most easily done by raising domestic prizes. The saved oil could then be sold internationally. I feel the venezuelan populace have a great deal more responsibility for the situation today than posters here assign them. Maduro did not instigate the Caracazo. The popular resistance to raising domestic prices can quite well explain the economic situation today, without invoking corruption and mismanagement.
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Jan 14, 2019 12:02
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catfry posted:does anyone know how much gas is consumed domestically? Since this is essentially free nowadays, I imagine there is not much reason to try to be frugal with it at any point in the supply chain or by end users. the prices I can find say about 0,01 usd / litre. One pretty obvious way to staunch the bleeding in the short term would be to disincentivize onstentatious consumption. this is most easily done by raising domestic prizes. The saved oil could then be sold internationally. You’re aware chavistas are in power because of the Caracazo? The reason they haven’t raised it to a sensical price is because that’s the wave they’ve been riding to power. Of course the prices should more closely related with their actual cost, here’s the problem though, currently they’re negligible, if you raise them to even 25% of their production cost you’re instantly making everything more expensive for everyone. Like this is just an awful post, what do you mean that the Venezuelan people have more responsibility? You’re saying that the economy is mismanaged because people are idiots? Or that production is falling because people use too much gas domestically? This makes no sense whatsoever, we know this is something that needs to be done but Chavistas have made lowering the oil subsidies into something neoliberal oligarchs want.
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Jan 14, 2019 12:18
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Intentionally raising prices in a country afflicted with hyperinflation seems like a recipe for revolution to me.
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Jan 14, 2019 12:58
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While I agree that suppressing oil prices just to keep people happy are not a good long-term solution, as far as I understand the oil subsidy doesn't really factor into the current disaster. The Venezuelan economy is so hosed up right now that if you were to raise oil prices for ordinary people, you might as well just take the entire nation back to pre-industrial times and be done with it.
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Jan 14, 2019 13:45
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Lightning Knight posted:What does he stand for? He stands for people being able to afford food and medicine, and having a life worth living in which they don’t see their children die of starvation or join street gangs that fight for territory in which to dig through garbage That’s it. That’s all the opposition has stood for in the last decade or more. That’s all it takes to be an enemy of the state and ~*the proletariat*~ in the eyes of american shitheads that only come to post here with their pants around their ankles whenever Venezuela’s in the news There’s nothing worth salvaging in the current government. They never did anything worthy of any praise and anyone that still speaks up to defend them values their stupid loving feelings more than the lives of poor people e: lest we forget, we had fully unironic blue lives matter posters itt. Make of that what you will Furia fucked around with this message at 14:38 on Jan 14, 2019 |
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Jan 14, 2019 14:35
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Lightning Knight posted:Intentionally raising prices in a country afflicted with hyperinflation seems like a recipe for revolution to me. in a country with hyperinflation prices are always rising, every hour!
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Jan 14, 2019 16:05
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evilweasel posted:in a country with hyperinflation prices are always rising, every hour! So then... what would making the prices go up faster accomplish?
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Jan 14, 2019 16:15
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Lightning Knight posted:So then... what would making the prices go up faster accomplish? It was more of a joke but my understanding is that now the subsidized gasoline is basically an in-kind handout to loyalists and they're working to cut off anyone who isn't a supporter of the government from getting the subsidized gasoline. People are more trying to resell it to make some profit than use it anyway, because when your monthly pay might buy you a coke if you move fast it's really valuable on the black market. So you're actually even more correct, in that cutting it would sever one of the few ways the regime can buy loyalty, more so than if they were just handing it out. But the goal would be to cut domestic consumption so you can sell more internationally and bring in more hard currency to rebuild the oil industry and other industries.
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Jan 14, 2019 16:20
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It will make it absolutely impossible for people to work because the government has made absolutely certain that there’s no usable public transport infrastructure
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Jan 14, 2019 16:22
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Lightning Knight posted:So then... what would making the prices go up faster accomplish? By effectively not giving away 700000 barrels of oil every day to national consumption, and decreasing the subsidy to a 90% discount on market price (as opposed to what is pretty much 100% right now), you would instantly reduce government spending by around 2 billion US dollars while still having the cheapest gasoline in the world. More money for the government to spend means less money printed, which means less inflation. The prices would go up, but then slow down. This all becomes necessary because the government has a budget deficit of loving 30%, an inflation rate of well over a million percent (The dreaded neoliberal vampires of the 90s only managed to ever get it as high as 99%) The oil subsidy leaves an 18 billion US dollar hole in the budget every year, mind you. fnox fucked around with this message at 16:35 on Jan 14, 2019 |
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Jan 14, 2019 16:29
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Feinne posted:Yeah the fuckers in charge were not satisfied with stealing the country's present and also stole its future so they could sock away a little more loot. That was all about creating leverage against Venezuela if/when the kleptocracy falls. China and Russia now have everything necessary to utterly gently caress over whatever government takes their place should it fail to please them - which could be accomplished simply by sitting on the chunks of the petroleum industry they now own. Aside from scoring a bit more quick cash it was probably also meant to win some favor in the world dictatorship club to ensure they've got safe havens to flee to or some foreign military support to lean on when the poo poo hits the fan. Edit: Also, I'm loving the irony in Chavez/Maduro supporters hand wringing about the potential for a coup. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 17:32 on Jan 14, 2019 |
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Jan 14, 2019 17:12
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Warbadger posted:Edit: Also, I'm loving the irony in Chavez/Maduro supporters hand wringing about the potential for a coup. One of the things I've hated the most was how "golpista" was a common insult Chavistas leveraged to oppositionists, but their entire movement literally spawned from the failed February 4th coup, a date which they fetishize to the point of having it on a huge sign at the Cuartel de la Montaña.
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Jan 14, 2019 17:56
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It's not even just the price caps or the nationalization or the general incompetence in managing the oil industry-- various large companies that produce critical goods, as part of "nationalization", keep getting handed over to incompetent flunkies of Maduro who only know how to squeeze harder. The entire government currently exists as a vehicle to funnel as much money as possible into the pockets of Maduro and his family + friends. Also the military higher ups that ensure he remains in power.
AGGGGH BEES fucked around with this message at 22:22 on Jan 14, 2019 |
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Jan 14, 2019 22:19
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It really is exceedingly weird how the seizure of businesses work there. It seems like the Madurite government only ever takes things over to destroy them entirely, instead of the traditional methods of "well this is officially under my brother's control now, but that's just so he can get paid" of typical corrupt regimes or the "straight up run it and maybe it'll do slightly worse but still totally functional" of a typical country.
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Jan 14, 2019 23:02
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fishmech posted:It really is exceedingly weird how the seizure of businesses work there. It seems like the Madurite government only ever takes things over to destroy them entirely, instead of the traditional methods of "well this is officially under my brother's control now, but that's just so he can get paid" of typical corrupt regimes or the "straight up run it and maybe it'll do slightly worse but still totally functional" of a typical country. Who needs an endless supply of golden eggs? I could be eating goose, tonight.
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Jan 15, 2019 02:41
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I think people running successful businesses is considered a threat. They're too powerful, destroy them.
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Jan 15, 2019 02:56
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A National Guard unit mutinied during the overnight hours in the Cotiza area of northern Caracas. The group of soldiers (which probably numbered 15-20 strong) posted a couple of videos on social media calling people out onto the streets to protest and support them. Here's one of the videos: https://twitter.com/Jake_Hanrahan/status/1087345329421340674 quote:Figueroa: I’m here with my soldiers. Well, let’s move forward, people of Venezuela. You’ve got our support. All of this is for Venezuela. We’re here for you. This is the National Guard–the National Armed Forces, ready to go. The regime sent a National Guard commander to negotiate with the soldiers, and then a unit of the National Bolivarian Police's special operations force, the FAES: https://twitter.com/luisgonzaloprz/status/1087298737234472960 According to Efecto Cocuyo, the soldiers surrendered at about 7:40 AM. They're now in custody and have already appeared before a military tribunal. Once word spread that the soldiers were staging a mutiny, neighbours from the Cotiza neighbourhood took the streets in support of the soldiers: https://twitter.com/ElyangelicaNews/status/1087327291905134592 A journalist with NTN24 talked to two women who were out protesting: https://twitter.com/NTN24ve/status/1087323869004943360 quote:Woman in White Tank Top: We didn’t do this! We wanted a better country. Do you knwo waht the police did? They threw tear gas at us. Five kids who were at the place where I live had to be taken to the hospital because they were choking, because they had asthma. We didn’t start this. They did! They did it! There were also protests in other areas of Caracas, including Los Mecedores, in support of the soldiers and against the regime: https://twitter.com/myteks/status/1087450569604775936 https://twitter.com/TVVnoticias/status/1087437999284064257 https://twitter.com/ReporteYa/status/1087432973635538947 It's now nighttime and there are protests all around Caracas. The video below is of a protest in the 23 de enero, one of the poorest areas of the city and once a regime stronghold: https://twitter.com/NTN24ve/status/1087536861181038592 Protesters in the Pinto Salinas neighbourhood: https://twitter.com/EfectoCocuyo/status/1087538028199981057 I think that it's going to be a long week. There is so much tension over the protests that are planned around the country for January 23. Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 04:12 on Jan 22, 2019 |
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Jan 22, 2019 03:37
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People are looting and breaking into farms to kill cow again. I had some "representatives of the community" come to my farm asking to donate a cow. Which I'm pretty much forced to do because the other option is to have a mob armed with machetes breaking in and killing all of my source of income. Let's see if I have power/internet on the 23rd to report if anything happens around my area. Also, a venezuelan killed an ecuatorian woman who was 4 months pregnant, leading to venezuelans in Ecuador to be assaulted, some report that people are breaking into houses to kick out venezuelans and burning whatever meager belongings the have. Blue Nation fucked around with this message at 04:16 on Jan 22, 2019 |
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Jan 22, 2019 04:11
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Blue Nation posted:People are looting and breaking into farms to kill cow again. I had some "representatives of the community" come to my farm asking to donate a cow. Which I'm pretty much forced to do because the other option is to have a mob armed with machetes breaking in and killing all of my source of income. I'm not sure how one can even accomplish this anymore but please stay safe.
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Jan 22, 2019 04:31
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Blue Nation posted:People are looting and breaking into farms to kill cow again. I had some "representatives of the community" come to my farm asking to donate a cow. Which I'm pretty much forced to do because the other option is to have a mob armed with machetes breaking in and killing all of my source of income. Think of the donated cow as a tax. Taxes help society, and in turn help society help you keep farming. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 22, 2019 04:46
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Chuck Boone posted:A National Guard unit mutinied during the overnight hours in the Cotiza area of northern Caracas. The group of soldiers (which probably numbered 15-20 strong) posted a couple of videos on social media calling people out onto the streets to protest and support them. Looks like the government shutdown is impact the CIA's morale and ability to inflict regime change (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 22, 2019 05:21
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It's almost 12:30 AM in Caracas and the city is still shaking. Here's a video of a colectivo armado (a pro-government militia) attacking protesters somewhere in the capital: https://twitter.com/Recintodlpueblo/status/1087544204392316929 Earlier tonight, protesters blocked the Caracas-La Guaira highway, which connects the capital with the international airport in Maiquetia: https://twitter.com/opositwit/status/1087544721805848576 And here's a clip of the National Guard moving in on those same protesters. I'm not sure what the status of that barricade is at the moment: https://twitter.com/ReporteYa/status/1087547160005132296
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Jan 22, 2019 05:24
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qkkl posted:Think of the donated cow as a tax. Taxes help society, and in turn help society help you keep farming. qkkl I don't ever expect your posts to be funny but this one is especially bad even for you. CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:Looks like the government shutdown is impact the CIA's morale and ability to inflict regime change I'm having a hard time interpreting this post. I guess you are trying to insinuate that these protests and the mutiny are American intelligence ops, without any evidence btw, but the jibe about the shutdown undercuts that point by implying the CIA is not currently capable of staging protests. Really though over the last year there's been increasing signs that the armed forces are becoming mutinous. We're reaching the point now where it hardly matters how much power and wealth Maduro has ceded to the generals, they're going to have to coup him soon if only because they need a scapegoat for everything that's gone wrong with the economy. If they don't pretty soon some popular colonel is going to beat them to the punch and dispose of them too.
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Jan 22, 2019 05:46
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I haven't seen any evidence yet that the United States has begun actively working to overthrow Maduro or instigate a coup. However by saying that the Maduro government is illegitimate Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is sending a strong signal that the US will recognize any government installed by a coup. It's quite possible that statement was even made in coordinate with Guaido. I haven't really been following the news that closely recently but people might want to start looking for indications that US policy is changing from passive to active in Venezuela. Politicians usually can't help but spill the beans to Washington Post or New York Times reporters when they start getting up to something. They just telegraph their plans with indirect statements that get printed on page 10. Squalid fucked around with this message at 06:09 on Jan 22, 2019 |
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Jan 22, 2019 06:06
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Squalid posted:
This is the standard liberal interventionist two step: apologize and handwring about the 100+ other interventions in latin america that happened in the past century while playing coy about the one currently unfolding. In 20 years from now liberals will be apologizing for Venezuela while vehemently denying that any of the current poo poo the US is involved in at the moment exists.
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Jan 22, 2019 06:59
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CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:This is the standard liberal interventionist two step: apologize and handwring about the 100+ other interventions in latin america that happened in the past century while playing coy about the one currently unfolding. Indeed, your standard pattern is to yell about fascism, and then violently support fascism, because you are a silly neoliberal worshipper of capitalism. Now what does that have to do with your failed attempt to read your latest talking points memo?
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Jan 22, 2019 07:12
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The fact that everyone knows maduro came to power illegitimately and is saying such isn't really a plot.
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Jan 22, 2019 09:57
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